A good week, a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 679, 638, and now 863 – up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 25, 32, and now 75.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 5% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 5% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ, and IWM are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
A time to buy – Sum of all deviations is up 2 weeks in a row. I am fully invested and none of my investments are rated sell.
I was talking with a 40 year old this week about the fact that his company increased his allowable contribution to his 401k. I suggested he increase it but he said he could not afford to increase it.
A simple calculation indicates if you contribute $1,000 per month, starting at age 25, and can earn 10% per year, at age 65 it will be worth $597,422. Based on the standard rule of thumb, you should be able to withdraw 4% per year without impacting the principal. That would give you an annual income of $23,897 before taxes – not a good retirement.
If you are now 40, you should have about $52k in your 401k. So you either have to contribute more, earn more, or live on $23K at age 65.
But remember 23k will only buy half as much 25 years from now if inflation stays at 2%. Can you live on $11,949 today?
I should have contributed more to my 401k and am contributing more to my present 401k and ROTH IRAs.
I have indicated I really like an ETF PTNQ. Paceretfs.com lists the Pacer ETFs. There are 7 ETFs within the Pacer Trendpilot group. 4 of the funds have been around for at least 200 day. PTNQ is up 22%, PTLC is up 17%, PTEU is up 12% and PTMC is up 3%. If you look at longer periods of time, the returns change. One email I received pointed out that PTLC has the best longer term gain. Review the website and pick the fund(s) which match your goals.
IRA#1
SSemiconductors has a price of 12.51, a sell price 11.88, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 12.51, a sell price 11.88, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)
SWireless has a price of 11.12, a sell price 10.56, a rank of 10, and is a hold. (ETF – IYZ, XTL)
SAutomotive has a price of 37.40, a sell price 35.53, a rank of 17, and is a hold. (ETF – RGI, EXI)
SHealthCareServices has a price of 104.47, a sell price 99.25, a rank of 13, and is a hold. (ETF – GNOM, BBC)
SComputers has a price of 82.78, a sell price 78.64, a rank of 04 and is a hold. (ETF – SNSR, SMH)
Several Fidelity funds had distributions this week so while the price may be lower, when distribution is considered the adjusted price is higher.
My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
21.15 01-27 FSELX 12.51 SSemiconductors YES
15.93 02-05 FBIOX 22.19 SBiotechnology YES
15.36 03-05 FPHAX 23.31 SPharmaceuticals YES
14.69 04-06 FDCPX 82.78 SComputers YES
14.07 05-10 FSPTX 19.74 STechnology YES
13.99 06-03 FSESX 24.23 SEnergyServices YES
13.04 07-06 FSJCX 104.47 SHealthCareServices NO
12.67 08-02 FHKCX 39.04 ChinaRegion YES
12.02 09-19 FWRLX 11.12 SWireless YES
11.92 10-10 FSRBX 28.42 SBanking YES
11.84 11-02 FLATX 28.84 LatinAmerica YES
11.57 12-10 FEXPX 21.80 Export&Multinational YES
11.43 13-01 FSPHX 28.54 SHealthCare YES
11.10 14-06 FOCPX 12.73 OTCPortfolio YES
10.65 15-01 FEMKX 34.80 EmergingMarkets YES
10.50 16-01 FCPGX 27.40 SmallCapGrowth NO
13.25 17-11 FSAVX 37.40 SAutomotive YES
10.47 18-02 FSEAX 45.07 EmergingAsia YES
10.41 19-06 FSLBX 80.97 SBrokerage&InvestmentManagement NO
10.34 20-01 FNCMX 117.01 NasdaqCompositeIndex YES
Last Week
18.60 01-26 FSELX 12.51 SSemiconductors NO
14.45 02-04 FBIOX 22.89 SBiotechnology NO
13.43 03-15 FDCPX 84.91 SComputers YES
13.06 04-04 FPHAX 24.01 SPharmaceuticals YES
12.35 05-09 FSPTX 19.66 STechnology NO
12.32 06-02 FSESX 23.75 SEnergyServices YES
11.42 07-01 FHKCX 38.35 ChinaRegion YES
11.23 08-09 FEXPX 21.79 Export&Multinational NO
11.19 09-09 FSRBX 29.15 SBanking YES
10.99 10-10 FSAVX 37.74 SAutomotive NO
10.49 11-05 FSLBX 82.79 SBrokerage&InvestmentManagement NO
10.29 12-18 FWRLX 11.18 SWireless NO
10.25 13-05 FSJCX 101.47 SHealthCareServices NO
9.82 14-09 FGRIX 42.10 Growth&Income NO
9.66 15-06 FIDSX 11.36 SFinancialServices NO
9.50 16-08 FLCSX 34.21 LargeCapStock NO
9.50 17-01 FPBFX 33.97 PacificBasin YES
9.47 18-05 FOCPX 12.60 OTCPortfolio NO
9.43 19-01 FSEAX 44.40 EmergingAsia YES
9.38 20-01 FLATX 28.03 LatinAmerica YES
It will be some time before I get all of the % returns correct.
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SSemiconductors(16Sep19) from SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19))
Nov19 1m+6% 3m-0% 6m+23% 12m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(09Dec19) from LatinAmerica(FLATX)(04Nov19)
20% – SAutomotive(FSAVX)(28Oct19) from Cash(16Sep19)
20% – SWireless(FWRLX)(21Oct19) from Cash(26Aug19)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(16Dec20 From SConstructionandHousing(FSHOX)(16Sep19)
20% – SSemiconductors(09Sep19) from Cash(19Aug19)
Nov19 1m+1% 3m+1% 6m+8% 12m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%