Author: Flynn

Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 301, 544, and now 418 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 00, 03, and now 13.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 2% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 5% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 1% below its 50 day moving average,
SPY and QQQ are above their 200 day moving average. IWM is not.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy.

Gary Kaltbaum, on his 6pm radio show, frequently points out the positive performance by banking and semiconductors stocks is required for a good market. Out of the 100 funds I follow, SBanking is #100,
SBrokerageInvestmentMangement is #99, SBiotechnology is #98, STransportation is #97 and SFinancial Services is #96. The five worst performing funds. Luckily SSoftware and other computer oriented funds are still doing well.

The 21 Mar issue of MacroVoice podcasts features David Rosenberg. His view is that the interest rate curve is invested and the economy is headed for a rough patch along with the market since the recession is coming.

IRA#1
none
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 66.29, a sell price 63.29, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SGold has a price of 19.41, a sell price 18.72, a rank of 06, and is a hold. (ETF – GDX, GDXJ)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 16.08, a sell price 16.42, a rank of 59, and is a sell – except if I sell it before 3/27 Fidelity’s stupid rules can limit my investing in funds in the future. Not a problem with ETFs (ETF – ITA, XAR)

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund
symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
11.62 01-11 FBSOX 66.29 SITServices
10.87 02-05 FSPTX 16.07 STechnology Yes
9.62 03-08 FHKCX 34.27 ChinaReqion
8.65 04-04 FSEAX 42.15 EmergingAsia
8.45 05-04 FSCSX 19.07 SSoftware&ITServices
8.30 06-03 FSAGX 19.41 SGold
8.20 07-03 FOCPX 11.58 OTCPortfolio
7.79 08-03 FBMPX 77.59 SCommunicationServices
7.54 09-03 FRESX 43.90 RealEstateInvestment
7.44 10-03 FSUTX 88.26 SUtilities
7.04 11-02 FSELX 9.62 SSemiconductors
6.85 12-01 FSRNX 16.36 RealEstateIndex Yes
6.84 13-02 FTQGX 23.73 FocusedStock
6.54 14-02 FDSVX 35.64 Growth Discovery
6.36 15-01 FSPGX 14.87 LargeCapGrowthIndex Yes
6.34 16-01 FTRNX 98.72 Trend
6.13 17-06 FSDCX 39.81 SCommunicationsEquipment
6.09 18-01 FSRPX 15.33 SRetailing Yes
5.99 19-01 FAMRX 18.75 Asset Manager 85%
5.99 20-01 FBGRX 96.83 BlueChipGrowth
Last Week
12.87 01-10 FBSOX 66.62 SITServices
10.85 02-07 FHKCX 34.48 ChinaReqion
10.60 03-04 FSPTX 15.94 STechnology
9.14 04-10 FSVLX 16.01 SConsumerFinance
9.01 05-05 FSDCX 40.76 SCommunicationsEquipment
8.82 06-03 FSCSX 19.05 SSoftware&ITServices
8.70 07-03 FSEAX 41.98 EmergingAsia
8.39 08-02 FOCPX 11.55 OTCPortfolio
8.32 09-02 FBMPX 77.65 SCommunicationServices
8.08 10-01 FTQGX 23.92 FocusedStock
7.88 11-01 FSELX 9.66 SSemiconductors
7.82 12-01 FSMEX 53.96 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
7.78 13-01 FDSVX 35.93 Growth Discovery
7.65 14-02 FRESX 43.77 RealEstateInvestment
7.64 15-23 FLATX 24.03 LatinAmerica
7.48 16-02 FSUTX 87.94 SUtilities Yes
7.30 17-03 FDSSX 44.07 StockSelectorAllCap
7.15 18-02 FSLSX 35.57 ValueStrategies
7.00 19-10 FDSCX 23.14 StockSelectorSmallCap
6.87 20-02 FSAGX 19.07 SGold

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(11Mar19) from LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19)
Feb19 1m-4% 3m-8% 6m-13% 12m-8% 24m+3% 36m+41% 60m+19% 120m+8%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – Cash(11Mar19) from LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19)
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
Feb19 1m+1% 3m+0% 6m-7% 12m-4% 24m+2% 36m+24% 60m+12% 120m+37%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%

ETFs
PTNQ Feb19 1m+0% 3m+1% 6m-9% 12m+2%
QQQ Feb19 1m+3% 3m+3% 6m-7% 12m+4%

A good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 540, 301, and now 544 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 43, 00, and now 03.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average, 
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 6% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY and QQQ are above their 200 day moving average. IWM is not.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy.

Last Sunday the Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, on “60 Minutes” said the Fed would probably not raise rates for some time. The result was the market feels the Fed will continue to provide as much money as the market needs to continue up.

I am going to add the latest changes for some of the ETFs I follow at the end of this report. Hopefully someday soon most 401ks will allow ETF or stock investing. The Florida Retirement system allows a self directed brokerage account in which you invest in:
  Stocks listed on a Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) regulated national exchange
  Exchange Traded Funds (except Leveraged Exchange Traded Funds)
  Mutual Funds (except for any of the Investment Plan’s primary investment funds)
  Fixed Income Products

IRA#1
none
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 66.62, a sell price 63.29, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SGold has a price of 19.07, a sell price 18.72, a rank of 20, and is a hold. (ETF – GDX, GDXJ) 
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 16.36, a sell price 16.42, a rank of 45, and is a sell – except if I sell it before 3/27 Fidelity’s stupid rules can limit my investing in funds in the future. Not a problem with ETFs (ETF – ITA, XAR) 

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 –  00% invested
IRA #2 –  60% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name          2wk UP?
12.87 01-10 FBSOX 66.62 SITServices
10.85 02-07 FHKCX 34.48 ChinaReqion
10.60 03-04 FSPTX 15.94 STechnology
9.14 04-10 FSVLX 16.01 SConsumerFinance
9.01 05-05 FSDCX 40.76 SCommunicationsEquipment
8.82 06-03 FSCSX 19.05 SSoftware&ITServices
8.70 07-03 FSEAX 41.98 EmergingAsia
8.39 08-02 FOCPX 11.55 OTCPortfolio
8.32 09-02 FBMPX 77.65 SCommunicationServices
8.08 10-01 FTQGX 23.92 FocusedStock
7.88 11-01 FSELX 9.66 SSemiconductors
7.82 12-01 FSMEX 53.96 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
7.78 13-01 FDSVX 35.93 Growth Discovery
7.65 14-02 FRESX 43.77 RealEstateInvestment
7.64 15-23 FLATX 24.03 LatinAmerica
7.48 16-02 FSUTX 87.94 SUtilities                            Yes
7.30 17-03 FDSSX 44.07 StockSelectorAllCap
7.15 18-02 FSLSX 35.57 ValueStrategies
7.00 19-10 FDSCX 23.14 StockSelectorSmallCap
6.87 20-02 FSAGX 19.07 SGold  
Last Week
9.51 01-09 FBSOX 64.20 SITServices
8.18 02-06 FSDAX 16.71 SDefense&Aerospace
8.00 03-06 FHKCX 33.40 ChinaReqion
7.54 04-01 FSAGX 19.12 SGold
6.45 05-09 FSVLX 15.54 SConsumerFinance
6.38 06-01 FRESX 43.08 RealEstateInvestment
5.85 07-03 FSPTX 15.17 STechnology
5.80 08-04 FSDCX 39.37 SCommunicationsEquipment
5.79 09-01 FSUTX 86.22 SUtilities
5.75 10-01 FBMPX 75.48 SCommunicationServices
5.73 11-05 FCYIX 33.02 SIndustrials 
5.65 12-02 FSCSX 18.41 SSoftware&ITServices
5.56 13-02 FSEAX 40.58 EmergingAsia
5.33 14-01 FCVSX 28.00 ConvertibleSecurities
5.32 15-01 FSRNX 16.01 RealEstateIndex
5.24 16-22 FLATX 23.40 LatinAmerica
5.03 17-09 FDSCX 22.63 StockSelectorSmallCap
5.01 18-01 FSLSX 34.73 ValueStrategies
4.81 19-01 FOCPX 11.12 OTCPortfolio
4.61 20-02 FDSSX 42.80 StockSelectorAllCap
 
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(11Mar19) from LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) 
Feb19 1m-4% 3m-8% 6m-13% 12m-8% 24m+3% 36m+41% 60m+19% 120m+8%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – Cash(11Mar19) from LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) 
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
Feb19 1m+1% 3m+0% 6m-7% 12m-4% 24m+2% 36m+24% 60m+12% 120m+37%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%

ETFs
PTNQ Feb19 1m+0% 3m+1% 6m-9% 12m+2% 
QQQ  Feb19 1m+3% 3m+3% 6m-7% 12m+4% 

A bad week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 553, 540, and now 301 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 75, 43, and now 00.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 2% above its 50 day moving average,
All three indicators are below their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy.

The 07Mar podcast of MacroVoices – www.macrovoices.com – presents an interesting view of the current market (rated PG13) and an idea on why the Ides of March may not be good for the market.

IRA#1
LatinAmerica has a price of 23.40, a sell price 23.88, a rank of 16, and is a Sell. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
IRA#2
LatinAmerica has a price of 23.40, a sell price 23.88, a rank of 16, and is a Sell. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
SITServices has a price of 64.20, a sell price 62.32, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SGold has a price of 19.12, a sell price 18.72, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – GDX, GDXJ)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 16.71, a sell price 16.42, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – ITA, XAR)

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – Sell LatinAmerica FLATX
IRA #2 – Sell LatinAmerica FLATX

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
9.51 01-09 FBSOX 64.20 SITServices
8.18 02-06 FSDAX 16.71 SDefense&Aerospace
8.00 03-06 FHKCX 33.40 ChinaReqion
7.54 04-01 FSAGX 19.12 SGold
6.45 05-09 FSVLX 15.54 SConsumerFinance
6.38 06-01 FRESX 43.08 RealEstateInvestment
5.85 07-03 FSPTX 15.17 STechnology
5.80 08-04 FSDCX 39.37 SCommunicationsEquipment
5.79 09-01 FSUTX 86.22 SUtilities
5.75 10-01 FBMPX 75.48 SCommunicationServices
5.73 11-05 FCYIX 33.02 SIndustrials
5.65 12-02 FSCSX 18.41 SSoftware&ITServices
5.56 13-02 FSEAX 40.58 EmergingAsia
5.33 14-01 FCVSX 28.00 ConvertibleSecurities
5.32 15-01 FSRNX 16.01 RealEstateIndex
5.24 16-22 FLATX 23.40 LatinAmerica
5.03 17-09 FDSCX 22.63 StockSelectorSmallCap
5.01 18-01 FSLSX 34.73 ValueStrategies
4.81 19-01 FOCPX 11.12 OTCPortfolio
4.61 20-02 FDSSX 42.80 StockSelectorAllCap
Last Week
12.46 01-08 FBSOX 65.60 SITServices Yes
12.35 02-05 FSDAX 17.28 SDefense&Aerospace
11.28 03-05 FHKCX 34.27 ChinaRegion Yes
9.41 04-08 FCPEX 12.64 SmallCapEnhancedIndex
9.24 05-08 FSSNX 20.36 SmallCapIndex
9.15 06-08 FSVLX 15.88 SConsumerFinance
8.98 07-08 FDSCX 23.42 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
8.98 08-03 FSDCX 40.43 SCommunicationsEquipment
8.91 09-04 FCYIX 33.91 SIndustrials
8.84 10-02 FSPTX 15.55 STechnology Yes
8.33 11-01 FSCSX 18.82 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
8.23 12-03 FSMEX 53.82 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
8.00 13-03 FSSMX 35.42 StockSelectorMidCap
7.92 14-21 FLATX 23.93 LatinAmerica
7.71 15-01 FTQGX 23.68 FocusedStock Yes
7.67 16-02 FSELX 25.04 SEnvironment&AlternativeEnergy
7.66 17-03 FDVLX 10.22 Value
7.60 18-08 FSLCX 16.47 SmallCapStock
7.48 19-01 FDSSX 43.87 StockSelectorAllCap Yes
7.46 20-01 FSEAX 41.19 EmergingAsia Yes

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(11Mar19) from LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19)
Nov18 1m+2% 3m-5% 6m-3% 12m-2% 24m+24% 36m+42% 60m+35% 120m+3%
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – Cash(11Mar19) from LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19)
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
Nov18 1m+1% 3m-7% 6m-4% 12m-5% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+16% 120m+33%
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%

A good week, almost a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 493, 553, and now 540 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 36, 75, and now 43.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 6% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 7% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 9% above its 50 day moving average,
All three indicators are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Almost a time to buy.

Chuck Jaffee has a show called Money Life – Moneylifeshow.com. On 28 Feb one of the guests was David Brown, Chief Investment Strategist, Sabrient Systems. You can listen to it on the web site under the upcoming & recent guests. Annually they produced a Baker’s Dozens list of stocks but since the demand was so great they started producing a monthly bakers dozens. The list this FEB is ALK, BA, BYD, CF, CNC, CVLT, DK, MLNX, SSNC, SYF, URI, ZAYO, and TRV. Another look at the portfolio, which is offered as a Unit Trust, is https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/dp/dpsummary.aspx?fundid=14022. I’ve never invested in their unit trusts but have followed, invested, and had gains in some of their stocks. The Unit Trusts are held for one year and only one time had a loss, one time had a +50% gain, and Mr. Brown said they average +20% per year.

IRA#1
LatinAmerica has a price of 23.93, a sell price 23.88, a rank of 14, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
IRA#2
LatinAmerica has a price of 23.93, a sell price 23.88, a rank of 14, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
SITServices has a price of 65.60, a sell price 62.32, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SGold has a price of 18.73, a sell price 18.72, a rank of 45, and is a hold. (ETF – GDX, GDXJ)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 17.28, a sell price 16.42, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – ITA, XAR)

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
12.46 01-08 FBSOX 65.60 SITServices Yes
12.35 02-05 FSDAX 17.28 SDefense&Aerospace
11.28 03-05 FHKCX 34.27 ChinaRegion Yes
9.41 04-08 FCPEX 12.64 SmallCapEnhancedIndex
9.24 05-08 FSSNX 20.36 SmallCapIndex
9.15 06-08 FSVLX 15.88 SConsumerFinance
8.98 07-08 FDSCX 23.42 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
8.98 08-03 FSDCX 40.43 SCommunicationsEquipment
8.91 09-04 FCYIX 33.91 SIndustrials
8.84 10-02 FSPTX 15.55 STechnology Yes
8.33 11-01 FSCSX 18.82 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
8.23 12-03 FSMEX 53.82 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
8.00 13-03 FSSMX 35.42 StockSelectorMidCap
7.92 14-21 FLATX 23.93 LatinAmerica
7.71 15-01 FTQGX 23.68 FocusedStock Yes
7.67 16-02 FSELX 25.04 SEnvironment&AlternativeEnergy
7.66 17-03 FDVLX 10.22 Value
7.60 18-08 FSLCX 16.47 SmallCapStock
7.48 19-01 FDSSX 43.87 StockSelectorAllCap Yes
7.46 20-01 FSEAX 41.19 EmergingAsia Yes
Last Week
12.37 01-04 FSDAX 17.17 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
11.64 02-05 FSAGX 19.71 SGold
11.30 03-07 FBSOX 64.50 SITServices Yes
10.59 04-20 FLATX 24.42 LatinAmerica
10.56 05-07 FCPEX 12.71 SmallCapEnhancedIndex Yes
10.54 06-04 FHKCX 33.84 ChinaRegion Yes
9.78 07-07 FSSNX 20.36 SmallCapIndex Yes
9.52 08-02 FSDCX 40.44 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
9.07 09-07 FRESX 43.87 RealEstateInvestment Yes
8.89 10-07 FDSCX 23.29 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
8.78 11-07 FSVLX 15.75 SConsumerFinance
8.56 12-07 FSLCX 16.55 SmallCapStock
8.46 13-03 FCYIX 33.61 SIndustrials
8.33 14-02 FSSMX 35.38 StockSelectorMidCap Yes
8.20 15-02 FDVLX 10.23 Value Yes
8.01 16-01 FSPTX 15.36 STechnology Yes
8.00 17-05 FMEIX 14.55 MidCapEnchancedIndex Yes
7.92 18-05 FSRNX 16.31 RealEstateIndex
7.85 19-01 FSELX 24.98 SEnvironment&AlternativeEnergy Yes
7.61 20-02 FSMEX 53.28 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
Nov18 1m+2% 3m-5% 6m-3% 12m-2% 24m+24% 36m+42% 60m+35% 120m+3%
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
Nov18 1m+1% 3m-7% 6m-4% 12m-5% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+16% 120m+33%
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%

A good week, a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 270, 493, and now 553 – up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 39, 36, and now 75.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 6% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 6% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 10% above its 50 day moving average,
All three indicators are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Time to buy.

The Pacer Trendpilot ETF, PTLC (US Large Cap), switched from T-Bills to Equities on 21Feb.
The Pacer Trendpilot ETF, PTNQ (Nasdaq 100), will switch from T-Bills to Equities on 25Feb.
The other Pacer Trendpilot ETFs. PTMC (US Mid Cap) and PTEU (European Index), are still in T-Bills.

I think everyone should seriously consider investing in a Pacer Trendpilot ETF. For years I have consistently suggested watching SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and when it moves below its 200 day moving average invest in cash. Then reinvest in SPY when it moves above its 200 day moving average. PTLC does that for you. I like PTNQ a little more because QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is a little more volatible and can produce slightly larger gains.

IRA#1
LatinAmerica has a price of 24.42, a sell price 23.88, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
IRA#2
LatinAmerica has a price of 24.42, a sell price 23.88, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
SITServices has a price of 64.50, a sell price 61.28, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SGold has a price of 19.71, a sell price 18.72, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – GDX, GDXJ)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 17.17, a sell price TBD, a rank of 01, and is a Buy. (ETF – ITA, XAR)

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – Invest in SDefense&Aerospace.

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
12.37 01-04 FSDAX 17.17 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
11.64 02-05 FSAGX 19.71 SGold
11.30 03-07 FBSOX 64.50 SITServices Yes
10.59 04-20 FLATX 24.42 LatinAmerica
10.56 05-07 FCPEX 12.71 SmallCapEnhancedIndex Yes
10.54 06-04 FHKCX 33.84 ChinaReqion Yes
9.78 07-07 FSSNX 20.36 SmallCapIndex Yes
9.52 08-02 FSDCX 40.44 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
9.07 09-07 FRESX 43.87 RealEstateInvestment Yes
8.89 10-07 FDSCX 23.29 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
8.78 11-07 FSVLX 15.75 SConsumerFinance
8.56 12-07 FSLCX 16.55 SmallCapStock
8.46 13-03 FCYIX 33.61 SIndustrials
8.33 14-02 FSSMX 35.38 StockSelectorMidCap Yes
8.20 15-02 FDVLX 10.23 Value Yes
8.01 16-01 FSPTX 15.36 STechnology Yes
8.00 17-05 FMEIX 14.55 MidCapEnchancedIndex Yes
7.92 18-05 FSRNX 16.31 RealEstateIndex
7.85 19-01 FSELX 24.98 SEnvironment&AlternativeEnergy Yes
7.61 20-02 FSMEX 53.28 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
Last Week
12.26 01-19 FLATX 24.65 LatinAmerica
11.98 02-03 FSDAX 17.00 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
11.15 03-06 FBSOX 64.03 SITServices Yes
9.04 04-06 FRESX 43.65 RealEstateInvestment Yes
9.00 05-06 FCPEX 12.46 SmallCapEnhancedIndex
8.94 06-02 FCYIX 33.61 SIndustrials Yes
8.94 07-06 FSVLX 15.70 SConsumerFinance Yes
8.88 08-06 FSSNX 20.09 SmallCapIndex Yes
8.59 09-05 FSLCX 16.48 SmallCapStock
8.33 10-06 FDSCX 23.06 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
8.17 11-04 FSAGX 18.98 SGold
8.04 12-04 FSRNX 16.26 RealEstateIndex Yes
7.73 13-01 FSDCX 39.58 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
7.72 14-01 FDVLX 10.14 Value
7.70 15-01 FSMEX 53.11 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices Yes
7.65 15-02 FSRFX 96.80 STransportation Yes
7.64 17-01 FSSMX 35.00 StockSelectorMidCap Yes
7.41 18-04 FMEIX 14.41 MidCapEnchancedIndex Yes
7.29 19-05 FDSSX 43.45 StockSelectorAllCap
7.28 20-03 FHKCX 32.66 ChinaReqion

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
Nov18 1m+2% 3m-5% 6m-3% 12m-2% 24m+24% 36m+42% 60m+35% 120m+3%
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
Nov18 1m+1% 3m-7% 6m-4% 12m-5% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+16% 120m+33%
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%

A good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 288, 270, and now 493 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 54, 39, and now 36.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 7% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 5% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM is still below its 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Time to buy but not this week.

Pacer Trendpilot ETFs which invest in indexes or T-bills based on the index price vs its 200 day moving average are still invested in T-bills.

This week’s MacroVoices podcast (you can listen online) features an interview with Francesco Fillia: Stock market CRASH is entirely possible. “But I believe that we are into a market situation which resembles what we have seen during the Lehman years, what we have seen during into 1929, to a lesser extent what we have seen during 1987, and to a lesser extent, also, to what we have seen in 2007 during the so-called Quant Quake.”

IRA#1
LatinAmerica has a price of 24.65, a sell price 23.88, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
IRA#2
LatinAmerica has a price of 24.65, a sell price 23.88, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
SITServices has a price of 64.03, a sell price 60.83, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SGold has a price of 18.98, a sell price 18.03, a rank of 11, and is a hold. (ETF – GDX, GDXJ)

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund
symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
12.26 01-19 FLATX 24.65 LatinAmerica
11.98 02-03 FSDAX 17.00 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
11.15 03-06 FBSOX 64.03 SITServices Yes
9.04 04-06 FRESX 43.65 RealEstateInvestment Yes
9.00 05-06 FCPEX 12.46 SmallCapEnhancedIndex
8.94 06-02 FCYIX 33.61 SIndustrials Yes
8.94 07-06 FSVLX 15.70 SConsumerFinance Yes
8.88 08-06 FSSNX 20.09 SmallCapIndex Yes
8.59 09-05 FSLCX 16.48 SmallCapStock
8.33 10-06 FDSCX 23.06 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
8.17 11-04 FSAGX 18.98 SGold
8.04 12-04 FSRNX 16.26 RealEstateIndex Yes
7.73 13-01 FSDCX 39.58 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
7.72 14-01 FDVLX 10.14 Value
7.70 15-01 FSMEX 53.11 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices Yes
7.65 15-02 FSRFX 96.80 STransportation Yes
7.64 17-01 FSSMX 35.00 StockSelectorMidCap Yes
7.41 18-04 FMEIX 14.41 MidCapEnchancedIndex Yes
7.29 19-05 FDSSX 43.45 StockSelectorAllCap
7.28 20-03 FHKCX 32.66 ChinaReqion
Last Week
11.79 01-18 FLATX 24.39 LatinAmerica
8.83 02-05 FRESX 43.36 RealEstateInvestment Yes
8.65 03-02 FSDAX 16.39 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
8.65 04-05 FBSOX 62.22 SITServices Yes
8.23 05-03 FSAGX 18.91 SGold
7.76 06-03 FSRNX 16.15 RealEstateIndex Yes
6.57 07-05 FHKCX 32.32 ChinaReqion
6.17 08-05 FSVLX 15.23 SConsumerFinance Yes
5.71 09-01 FCYIX 32.46 SIndustrials Yes
5.12 10-05 FDSCX 22.28 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
5.06 11-03 FMEIX 14.04 MidCapEnchancedIndex Yes
4.96 12-02 FBMPX 73.99 SCommunicationServices
4.95 13-01 FSRFX 93.99 STransportation Yes
4.93 14-05 FSSNX 19.27 SmallCapIndex Yes
4.85 15-04 FSLCX 15.84 SmallCapStock
4.82 16-01 FSPTX 14.79 STechnology Yes
4.68 17-04 FDSSX 42.23 StockSelectorAllCap
4.59 18-05 FCPEX 11.90 SmallCapEnhancedIndex
4.53 19-01 FSMDX 20.87 MidCapIndex Yes
4.45 20-03 FSEAX 39.63 EmergingAsia

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
Nov18 1m+2% 3m-5% 6m-3% 12m-2% 24m+24% 36m+42% 60m+35% 120m+3%
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
Nov18 1m+1% 3m-7% 6m-4% 12m-5% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+16% 120m+33%
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%

An ok week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 156, 288, and now 270 – not up 2 weeks in a row
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 53, 54, and now 39.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average,
However, it should be pointed out that while all the indexes are above their short term 50 day moving average, they are still all below their 200 day long term moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Time to buy but not this week.

I think it is interesting to look at the Pacer Trendpilot ETFs which invest in indexes or T-bills based on the index price vs its 200 day moving average. All 4 ETFs are invested in T-bills. They got close to investing in their index this week but only close. I think these are a great buy and hold investment.

This week’s MacroVoices podcast (you can listen online) is still claiming we are in a bounce up in a down market. That seems to be the consensus for several of the reports I hear and read. I even heard a push for the Kondratiev wave (the Financial Winter Is Coming). It is a 40 to 60 year cycle which last hit in 1973 (according to this author) and was going to come again soon.

I do my own taxes at home using HRBlock software. When I went into the program today, it said I had a 07Feb update installed and it would not let me efile until I installed a 07Feb update (which I tried 9 times). I finally gave up and chatted with customer service. My 6 hour headache with this software finally ended with the 6th rep who said delete and reinstall the software. It seem there was no 07Feb update – it was put off until 15Feb. It was not a fun 6 hours. Not ready for prime time customer service.

IRA#1
LatinAmerica has a price of 24.39, a sell price 23.88, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
IRA#2
LatinAmerica has a price of 24.39, a sell price 23.88, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
SITServices has a price of 6.22, a sell price 59.11, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SGold has a price of 18.91, a sell price 17.96, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – GDX, GDXJ)

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
11.79 01-18 FLATX 24.39 LatinAmerica
8.83 02-05 FRESX 43.36 RealEstateInvestment Yes
8.65 03-02 FSDAX 16.39 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
8.65 04-05 FBSOX 62.22 SITServices Yes
8.23 05-03 FSAGX 18.91 SGold
7.76 06-03 FSRNX 16.15 RealEstateIndex Yes
6.57 07-05 FHKCX 32.32 ChinaReqion
6.17 08-05 FSVLX 15.23 SConsumerFinance Yes
5.71 09-01 FCYIX 32.46 SIndustrials Yes
5.12 10-05 FDSCX 22.28 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
5.06 11-03 FMEIX 14.04 MidCapEnchancedIndex Yes
4.96 12-02 FBMPX 73.99 SCommunicationServices
4.95 13-01 FSRFX 93.99 STransportation Yes
4.93 14-05 FSSNX 19.27 SmallCapIndex Yes
4.85 15-04 FSLCX 15.84 SmallCapStock
4.82 16-01 FSPTX 14.79 STechnology Yes
4.68 17-04 FDSSX 42.23 StockSelectorAllCap
4.59 18-05 FCPEX 11.90 SmallCapEnhancedIndex
4.53 19-01 FSMDX 20.87 MidCapIndex Yes
4.45 20-03 FSEAX 39.63 EmergingAsia
Last Week
15.95 01-17 FLATX 25.14 LatinAmerica Yes
9.97 02-02 FSAGX 19.13 SGold Yes
7.17 03-04 FRESX 42.50 RealEstateInvestment Yes
7.14 04-04 FHKCX 32.38 ChinaReqion Yes
7.09 05-04 FBSOX 61.05 SITServices Yes
6.12 06-02 FSRNX 15.84 RealEstateIndex Yes
5.96 07-04 FSVLX 15.15 SConsumerFinance Yes
5.88 08-11 FEMEX 9.57 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA) Yes
5.68 09-01 FSDAX 15.87 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
5.52 10-01 FBMPX 74.19 SCommunicationServices
5.51 11-03 FSLCX 15.90 SmallCapStock Yes
4.98 12-02 FSPHX 24.26 SHealthCare Yes
4.98 13-04 FDSCX 22.19 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
4.97 14-02 FMEIX 13.99 MidCapEnchancedIndex Yes
4.88 15-04 FSSNX 19.21 SmallCapIndex
4.87 16-01 FDVLX 9.81 Value
4.85 17-04 FCPEX 11.90 SmallCapEnhancedIndex Yes
4.69 18-03 FDSSX 42.13 StockSelectorAllCap
4.65 19-01 FSLSX 34.05 ValueStrategies Yes
4.53 20-02 FSEAX 39.57 EmergingAsia Yes

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
Nov18 1m+2% 3m-5% 6m-3% 12m-2% 24m+24% 36m+42% 60m+35% 120m+3%
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
Nov18 1m+1% 3m-7% 6m-4% 12m-5% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+16% 120m+33%
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%

A good week, a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 125, 156, and now 288 – up 2 weeks in a row
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 94, 53, and now 54.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average.
However, it should be pointed out that while all the indexes are above their short term 50 day moving average, they are still all below their 200 day long term moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Time to buy.

I think it is interesting to look at the Pacer Trendpilot ETFs which invest in indexes or T-bills based on the ETF index price vs 200 day moving average. All 4 ETFs are invested in T-bills.

This week’s report is short because I’ve been working too much. Will try to do better next week.

IRA#1
LatinAmerica has a price of 25.14, a sell price 23.88, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
IRA#2
LatinAmerica has a price of 25.14, a sell price 23.88, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
SITServices has a price of 61.05, a sell price 58.00, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SGold has a price of 19.13, a sell price TBD, a rank of 02, and is a buy. (ETF – GDX, GDXJ)

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – 20% invested in SGold

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
15.95 01-17 FLATX 25.14 LatinAmerica Yes
9.97 02-02 FSAGX 19.13 SGold Yes
7.17 03-04 FRESX 42.50 RealEstateInvestment Yes
7.14 04-04 FHKCX 32.38 ChinaReqion Yes
7.09 05-04 FBSOX 61.05 SITServices Yes
6.12 06-02 FSRNX 15.84 RealEstateIndex Yes
5.96 07-04 FSVLX 15.15 SConsumerFinance Yes
5.88 08-11 FEMEX 9.57 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA) Yes
5.68 09-01 FSDAX 15.87 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
5.52 10-01 FBMPX 74.19 SCommunicationServices
5.51 11-03 FSLCX 15.90 SmallCapStock Yes
4.98 12-02 FSPHX 24.26 SHealthCare Yes
4.98 13-04 FDSCX 22.19 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
4.97 14-02 FMEIX 13.99 MidCapEnchancedIndex Yes
4.88 15-04 FSSNX 19.21 SmallCapIndex
4.87 16-01 FDVLX 9.81 Value
4.85 17-04 FCPEX 11.90 SmallCapEnhancedIndex Yes
4.69 18-03 FDSSX 42.13 StockSelectorAllCap
4.65 19-01 FSLSX 34.05 ValueStrategies Yes
4.53 20-02 FSEAX 39.57 EmergingAsia Yes
Last Week
13.21 01-16 FLATX 24.34 LatinAmerica Yes
6.07 02-03 FBSOX 60.24 SITServices Yes
5.98 03-03 FHKCX 31.91 ChinaReqion Yes
5.1 04-10 FEMEX 9.47 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA) Yes
5.03 05-03 FSVLX 14.97 SConsumerFinance Yes
4.54 06-03 FRESX 41.3 RealEstateInvestment Yes
4.42 07-01 FSAGX 18.07 SGold
3.89 08-02 FSLCX 15.61 SmallCapStock Yes
3.78 09-03 FSSNX 18.96 SmallCapIndex
3.72 10-02 FIDSX 9.41 SFinancialServices Yes
3.7 11-03 FCPEX 11.74 SmallCapEnhancedIndex Yes
3.66 12-01 FSPHX 23.89 SHealthCare
3.65 13-04 FSRPX 14.69 SRetailing
3.58 14-01 FSRNX 15.41 RealEstateIndex Yes
3.55 15-03 FDSCX 21.83 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
3.44 16-01 FMEIX 13.75 MidCapEnchancedIndex Yes
3.43 17-01 FSEAX 39.06 EmergingAsia Yes
3.41 18-05 FAMRX 17.88 Asset Manager 85% Yes
3.36 19-02 FDSSX 41.49 StockSelectorAllCap
3.25 20-03 FSCPX 42.95 SConsumerDiscretionary

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
Nov18 1m+2% 3m-5% 6m-3% 12m-2% 24m+24% 36m+42% 60m+35% 120m+3%
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
Nov18 1m+1% 3m-7% 6m-4% 12m-5% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+16% 120m+33%
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%

A good week, a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -99, 125, and now 156 – up 2 weeks in a row
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 93, 94, and now 53.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 2% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Time to buy.

Interesting view of the market future –
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/01/23/bear-market-will-continue-through-2020-says-mark-yusko.html

Blame the computers – they did on 10/19/87 when the DJIA dropped 23% in one day – and now again –
https://thefelderreport.com/2019/01/23/why-blaming-the-algos-for-the-decline-is-really-just-an-inverted-stock-tip/

ETFDB.com offered a good webinar on Thursday. It featured the Pacer Trendpilot ETF Series. ETFDB said the webinar would be recorded but I’ve not seen the recording yet but will post it when/if I find it. If you go to Paceretfs.com you can see the Pacer Trendpilot funds are all invested in T-Bills since the indexes they follow are below their 200 day moving average. If you click on one of the funds they will explain their use of a 200 day moving average to be in, half in, or out of the market. Since all trading is done within the ETFs, there are no buys or sells to report at tax time. Many times I have suggested to investors to hold SPY (S&P500) when it is above the 200 day moving average and sell when it is not. Here are 4 ETFs which do it for you, based on 4 different indexes.

IRA#1
LatinAmerica has a price of 24.34, a sell price 23.12, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
IRA#2
LatinAmerica has a price of 24.34, a sell price 23.12, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
SITServices has a price of 61.24, a sell price TBD, a rank of 02, and is a BUY. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – 20% invested in SITServices

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
13.21 01-16 FLATX 24.34 LatinAmerica Yes
6.07 02-03 FBSOX 60.24 SITServices Yes
5.98 03-03 FHKCX 31.91 ChinaReqion Yes
5.1 04-10 FEMEX 9.47 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA) Yes
5.03 05-03 FSVLX 14.97 SConsumerFinance Yes
4.54 06-03 FRESX 41.3 RealEstateInvestment Yes
4.42 07-01 FSAGX 18.07 SGold
3.89 08-02 FSLCX 15.61 SmallCapStock Yes
3.78 09-03 FSSNX 18.96 SmallCapIndex
3.72 10-02 FIDSX 9.41 SFinancialServices Yes
3.7 11-03 FCPEX 11.74 SmallCapEnhancedIndex Yes
3.66 12-01 FSPHX 23.89 SHealthCare
3.65 13-04 FSRPX 14.69 SRetailing
3.58 14-01 FSRNX 15.41 RealEstateIndex Yes
3.55 15-03 FDSCX 21.83 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
3.44 16-01 FMEIX 13.75 MidCapEnchancedIndex Yes
3.43 17-01 FSEAX 39.06 EmergingAsia Yes
3.41 18-05 FAMRX 17.88 Asset Manager 85% Yes
3.36 19-02 FDSSX 41.49 StockSelectorAllCap
3.25 20-03 FSCPX 42.95 SConsumerDiscretionary
Last Week
13.07 01-15 FLATX 24.14 LatinAmerica Yes
4.63 02-02 FBSOX 59.23 SITServices Yes
4.52 03-02 FHKCX 31.37 ChinaReqion Yes
4.06 04-03 FSRPX 14.72 SRetailing Yes
3.98 05-02 FSSNX 18.96 SmallCapIndex Yes
3.90 06-02 FSVLX 14.77 SConsumerFinance Yes
3.60 07-09 FEMEX 9.31 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA) Yes
3.55 08-02 FCPEX 11.70 SmallCapEnhancedIndex Yes
3.53 09-02 FBMPX 72.47 SCommunicationServices Yes
3.50 10-01 FSLBX 69.85 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement Yes
3.50 11-02 FRESX 40.79 RealEstateInvestment Yes
3.43 12-02 FSCPX 42.95 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
3.41 13-01 FDSSX 41.44 StockSelectorAllCap Yes
3.37 14-01 FIDSX 9.36 SFinancialServices Yes
3.31 15-01 FOCPX 10.76 OTCPortfolio Yes
3.30 16-04 FAMRX 17.83 Asset Manager 85% Yes
3.30 17-01 FSLCX 15.49 SmallCapStock Yes
3.27 18-02 FDSCX 21.73 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
3.26 19-01 FTQGX 22.34 FocusedStock Yes
3.16 20-01 FDVLX 9.61 Value Yes

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
Nov18 1m+2% 3m-5% 6m-3% 12m-2% 24m+24% 36m+42% 60m+35% 120m+3%
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
Nov18 1m+1% 3m-7% 6m-4% 12m-5% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+16% 120m+33%
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%

A good week, a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -581, -99, and now 125 – up 2 weeks in a row
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 02, 93, and now 94.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 2% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 2% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 1% above its 50 day moving average,
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Time to buy.

It looks like the Working Group on Financial Markets (WGFM) also known as the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) decided after the 12/24 market drop to go into action. The Secretary of the Treasury, chair of the PPT, got the group into action and also called all the big banks. The market has been up since then. On 04Jan even the chair of the Federal Reserve Board fell into line and decided there may not be more interest rate increases this year. The old market mantra is “Don’t fight the FED.”

On the this week’s MACRO Voices podcast the conclusion seems the be that the market peaks are past. The first down turn had finished. The rebound in now taking place – and it could last months – before it ends and the bigger drop starts. The MACRO Voices podcasts are very interesting and educational.

On something not related to the market, if you text Pepsi to 50563 and answer the questions, you may win two tickets to the Super Bowl in 2020 and some other stuff. You can enter daily with a text or a call to 800-537-7723.

IRA#1
LatinAmerica has a price of 24.14, a sell price TBD, a rank of 01, and is a buy. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
IRA#2
LatinAmerica has a price of 24.14, a sell price TBD, a rank of 01, and is a buy. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – 100% invested in LatinAmerica
IRA #2 – 20% invested in LatinAmerica

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – s0% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
13.07 01-15 FLATX 24.14 LatinAmerica Yes
4.63 02-02 FBSOX 59.23 SITServices Yes
4.52 03-02 FHKCX 31.37 ChinaReqion Yes
4.06 04-03 FSRPX 14.72 SRetailing Yes
3.98 05-02 FSSNX 18.96 SmallCapIndex Yes
3.90 06-02 FSVLX 14.77 SConsumerFinance Yes
3.60 07-09 FEMEX 9.31 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA) Yes
3.55 08-02 FCPEX 11.70 SmallCapEnhancedIndex Yes
3.53 09-02 FBMPX 72.47 SCommunicationServices Yes
3.50 10-01 FSLBX 69.85 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement Yes
3.50 11-02 FRESX 40.79 RealEstateInvestment Yes
3.43 12-02 FSCPX 42.95 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
3.41 13-01 FDSSX 41.44 StockSelectorAllCap Yes
3.37 14-01 FIDSX 9.36 SFinancialServices Yes
3.31 15-01 FOCPX 10.76 OTCPortfolio Yes
3.30 16-04 FAMRX 17.83 Asset Manager 85% Yes
3.30 17-01 FSLCX 15.49 SmallCapStock Yes
3.27 18-02 FDSCX 21.73 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
3.26 19-01 FTQGX 22.34 FocusedStock Yes
3.16 20-01 FDVLX 9.61 Value Yes
Last Week
10.55 01-14 FLATX 23.44 LatinAmerica Yes
4.64 02-06 FSAGX 18.06 SGold
3.13 03-08 FEMEX 9.25 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA) Yes
2.37 04-02 FSRPX 14.45 SRetailing Yes
1.89 05-01 FHKCX 30.51 ChinaReqion Yes
1.81 06-14 FIUIX 25.46 TelecomandUtilities Yes
1.78 07-01 FSCPX 42.19 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
1.73 08-01 FSSNX 18.51 SmallCapIndex Yes
1.62 09-01 FBSOX 57.39 SITServices Yes
1.54 10-14 FRIFX 11.49 RealEstateIncome Yes
1.51 11-01 FBMPX 70.92 SCommunicationServices Yes
1.44 12-01 FCPEX 11.44 SmallCapEnhancedIndex Yes
1.40 13-01 FRESX 39.89 RealEstateInvestment
1.22 14-03 FAMRX 17.44 Asset Manager 85% Yes
0.95 15-01 FSVLX 14.32 SConsumerFinance Yes
0.79 16-14 FSUTX 80.94 SUtilities
0.78 17-01 FDSCX 21.17 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
0.70 18-06 FCONX 10.01 ConservativeIncomeBond
0.65 19-01 FSTCX 56.53 STelecommunications Yes
0.64 20-01 FSEAX 37.88 EmergingAsia Yes

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
Nov18 1m+2% 3m-5% 6m-3% 12m-2% 24m+24% 36m+42% 60m+35% 120m+3%
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
Nov18 1m+1% 3m-7% 6m-4% 12m-5% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+16% 120m+33%
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%