Author: Flynn

An interesting radio show is archived at http://www.businesstalkradio.net/weekday_host/Archives/gw.shtml ==> Wed. Apr 3 Hour 1. The first half of the show features Bill Meridian of www.billmeridian.com who feel the DJIA will go to 16,000 until the end of the year, then down to 10,000 by Nov 2013, and then up for 15 months. The second half of the show features Larry Pesavento of www.tradingtutor.com who feels we are in double bubble and the market will soon start falling. He says it will be worse than 2008 and the DJIA will fall to 2,800. Please do not feel obligated to listen to the show host. Gabriel Wisdom just likes to hear himself talk.

 

Investors Business Daily calls the “market in correction” since Thursday 18Apr13. Not a time to buy.

 

The sum of the deviations (765,1006,674) is not up for the last two weeks – not a time to invest.

The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is above its 50 day moving average and the average is increasing – time to invest. Both do not say buy.

 

My current investments – a couple of sell prices were adjusted due to fund distributions;

SConstruction&Housing has a price of $52.11, a sell price of $51.09, a relative rank of 26, and is a hold until it falls below the sell price or I need to sell it to buy a better fund.

SAirTransportation has a price of $45.34, a sell price of $44.40, a relative rank of 16, and is a hold.

SmallCapDiscovery has a price of $26.48, a sell price of $26.48, a relative rank of 29, and is a hold until it falls below the sell price or I need to sell it to buy a better fund. My numbers show the price is actually 0.01% above the sell price.

SmallCapValue has a price of $18.02, a sell price $17.91, a relative rank of 22, and is a hold.

JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of $12.55, a sell price $11.92, a relative rank of 01, and is a hold.

 

My portfolio changes this weekend:

IRA #1 – None

IRA #2 – None

Investors Business Daily calls the market “Up trend confirmed” based on Wednesday’s market. Then on Thursday IBD says the Nasdaqhad a distribution day – not a good sign.

 

Every hard asset (copper, gold, silver, etc.) and commodity is going down which in not an indication of a strong economy. However the US and Japan are both spending 4b per day buying bonds – just printing money. Europe is doing the same. The market is one place the money is going. Another place is real estate. The 3 Fidelity real estate funds are a buy. When the governments quit spending money or when the market gets tired of it, look out below. On a related item, last week the US administration decided banks should loosen their credit standards and give home loans to less credit worthy buyers. Perhaps these loans should called subprime loans.

 

The sum of the deviations (994,765,1006) is not up for the last two weeks – not a time to invest.

The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is above its 50 day moving average and the average is increasing – time to invest. Both do not say buy.

 

My current investments – a couple of sell prices were adjusted due to fund distributions;

SConstruction&Housing has a price of $53.65, a sell price of $51.09, a relative rank of 21, and is a hold until it falls below the sell price or I need to sell it to buy a better fund.

SAirTransportation has a price of $46.38, a sell price of $44.40, a relative rank of 07, and is a hold.

SmallCapDiscovery has a price of $27.43, a sell price of $26.48, a relative rank of 15, and is a hold.

SmallCapValue has a price of $18.61, a sell price $17.91, a relative rank of 14, and is a hold.

JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of $12.27, a sell price $11.66, a relative rank of 01, and is a hold.

 

My portfolio changes this weekend:

IRA #1 – None

IRA #2 – None

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$NAA50R shows that 47% of Nasdaq stocks are above their 50 day moving average – a significant change from last week. The 50 day moving average of that indicator is also moving down. The point and figure chart indicates a bearish objective of 32. With less than have the Nasdaq stocks in an up trend it is probably not a good time to invest.

 

Investors Business Daily calls the market “Up trend under pressure.” IBD also points out that the Nasdaq has had 6 distribution days (lower market days with increased volume) in the last few weeks. Another distribution day and IBD will call the market “Market in correction.”

 

The sum of the deviations (952,994,765) is not up for the last two weeks – not a time to invest.

The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is above its 50 day moving average and the average is increasing – time to invest. Both do not say buy.

One interesting trend is that all three Real Estate funds I follow have had increasing deviations over the last 3 weeks. 3 week increasing deviations is one of my buy criteria. 9 funds out of the 137 I follow also meet that criterion with JapanSmallerCompanies being the #1 fund.

 

My current investments:

SConstruction&Housing has a price of $52.72, a sell price of $51.24, a relative rank of 17, and is a hold.

SBrokerage&InvestmentMgnt has a price of $55.09, a sell price of $55.57, and I will sell it Monday.

SAirTransportation has a price of $45.65, a sell price of $45.08, a relative rank of 09, and is a hold.

SmallCapDiscovery has a price of $26.96, a sell price of $26.48, a relative rank of 11, and is a hold.

SmallCapValue has a price of $18.29, a sell price $17.91, a relative rank of 10, and is a hold.

JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of $11.88, a sell price $11.29, a relative rank of 01, and is a hold.

 

My portfolio changes this weekend:

IRA #1 – None

IRA #2 – Sell SBrokerage&InvestmentMgnt

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$NAA50R shows that 61% of Nasdaq stocks are above their 50 day moving average. With 61% of stocks in an up trend, the market up trend should continue.

One of my tax clients received a call from his banker asking if his Social Security deposit was going to another bank for the last two months. In visiting SS he found the agent (and the three at nearby desks) had a 3 inch stack of recent bank number changes she was checking. It seems one of the latest frauds is to change the bank account numbers for SS deposits to direct it to your account.

 

The sum of the deviations (1083,952,994) is not up for the last two weeks – not a time to invest.

The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is above its 50 day moving average and the average is increasing – time to invest. Both do not say buy.

 

My current investments:

SConstruction&Housing has a price of $53.58, a sell price of $51.24, a relative rank of 14, and is a hold.

SBrokerage&InvestmentMgnt has a price of $56.15, a sell price of $55.57, a relative rank of 27, and is a hold only until it declines another 1% or a buy week, when I will switch to a better fund.

SAirTransportation has a price of $47.45, a sell price of $45.08, a relative rank of 03, and is a hold.

SmallCapDiscovery has a price of $27.87, a sell price of $26.48, a relative rank of 04, and is a hold.

SmallCapValue has a price of $18.85, a sell price $17.91, a relative rank of 05, and is a hold.

JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of $11.42, a sell price $10.85, a relative rank of 01, and is a hold.

 

My portfolio changes this week:

IRA #1 – None

IRA #2 – None

Investors Business Daily’s IBDtv provided a brief look at the Friday market. Looking at the graphs shows the markets higher on the day, but the overall view looks like the market may be topping. The weekly radio show put out by IBD, available on their web site or on a podcast, is always interesting.

These days the weekends remind me of 2008 when every Monday another bank was in deep trouble except now it is countries. Sort of a scary future if you really think about it.

 

The sum of the deviations (1059,1083,952) is not up for the last two weeks – not a time to invest.

The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is above its 50 day moving average and the average is increasing – time to invest. Both do not say buy.

 

My current investments:

SConstruction&Housing has a price of $53.64, a sell price of $51.24, a relative rank of 07, and is a hold.

SBrokerage&InvestmentMgnt has a price of $56.70, a sell price of $55.57, a relative rank of 10, and is a hold.

SAirTransportation has a price of $47.12, a sell price of $44.76, a relative rank of 02, and is a hold.

SmallCapDiscovery has a price of $27.65, a sell price of $26.32, a relative rank of 03, and is a hold.

SmallCapValue has a price of $18.66, a sell price $17.81, a relative rank of 05, and is a hold.

JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of $11.60, a sell price $44.02, a relative rank of 01, and is a hold.

 

My portfolio changes this week:

IRA #1 – None

IRA #2 – None

The DowJonesIndustrialAverage was up 10 days in a row which has not happened for 17 years. However if you look at the slope of the average since the slight dip a couple of weeks ago it is less steep. Additional there has been two distribution days since the last dip – a distribution day is a down day on higher volume indicating the big stock holders are selling.

If you want to take a look at a stock which is going up for no reason I can tell, take a look at HRB. It is up about 44% over the last 3 months. I do not have a clue, but moves like this possibly indicate a buyout.

 

The sum of the deviations (825,1059,1083) is up for the last two weeks – a time to invest.

The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is above its 50 day moving average and the average is increasing – time to invest. Both do say buy so I would be buying if I was not fully invested.

 

My current investments:

SConstruction&Housing has a price of $53.78, a sell price of $51.24, a relative rank of 11, and is a hold.

SBrokerage&InvestmentMgnt has a price of $58.49, a sell price of $55.57, a relative rank of 03, and is a hold.

SAirTransportation has a price of $47.01, a sell price of $44.66, a relative rank of 02, and is a hold.

SmallCapDiscovery has a price of $27.71, a sell price of $26.32, a relative rank of 04, and is a hold.

SmallCapValue has a price of $18.75, a sell price $17.81, a relative rank of 05, and is a hold.

 

The investing rules for my IRA #1 fund require that I sell any investment which falls out of the top 10 if I’ve held it for 30 days and buy a better fund if it is time to invest. Thus I am selling SConstruction&Housing and buying JapanSmallerCompanies.

JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of $10.86, a sell price TBD, a relative rank of 01, and is a buy.

 

My portfolio changes this week:

IRA #1 – Switch from SConstruction&Housing to JapanSmallerCompanies.

IRA #2 – None

ABC News featured a story on goodrx.com where you can see the relative price of a drug in story near you. You might give it a try.

One of the more interesting shows on the Gabriel Wisdom radio show featured the author of “Rich Habits – Daily Habits of Wealthy Individuals,” Tom Corley. Interesting concept – change your habits to those who are wealthy rather than those who are poor. Do a web search on rich habits.

Investors Business Daily had decided we had a follow through day on Tuesday and four days later, on Friday, changed their market outlook to confirmed uptrend. I sure hope they are right and this uptrend continues.

 

The sum of the deviations (837,825,1059) is not up for the last two weeks – not a time to invest.

The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is above its 50 day moving average and the average is increasing – time to invest. Both do not say buy so I am not buying.

 

My current investments:

SConstruction&Housing has a price of $53.94, a sell price of $51.24, a relative rank of 06, and is a hold.

SBrokerage&InvestmentMgnt has a price of $57.70, a sell price of $54.82, a relative rank of 02, and is a hold.

SAirTransportation has a price of $46.20, a sell price of $43.89, a relative rank of 03, and is a hold.

SmallCapDiscovery has a price of $27.36, a sell price of $25.99, a relative rank of 04, and is a hold.

SmallCapValue has a price of $18.47, a sell price $17.55, a relative rank of 05, and is a hold.

 

My portfolio changes this week:

IRA #1 – None

IRA #2 – None