Author: Flynn

December was a mediocre to poor month for my investments.
In December IRA#1 +2%, IRA#2 +1%, PDP PIE PIZ DWAS -0%, TQQQ -10%, TQQQ/SQQQ -14%, Power4 +1%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 -0%, IRS#2 +1%, PDPetc +1%, TQQQ +15%, TQQQ/SQQQ +18%, Power4 +3%.
December portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – None.
IRA#2 – None.
PDP PIE PIX DWAS – Sold PIE on 12/11.
TQQQ – Sold TQQQ on 12/09, purchased 50% TQQQ on 12/24 – now 50% invested.
TQQQ/SQQQ – Sold TQQQ on 12/09, purchased SQQQ on 12/16, sold SQQQ on 12/18 – now all in cash.
Power4 – None.

Two of the investments I am considering are FV and DWAT. Both are ETFs consisting of investments in other ETFs based of Dorsey Wright investment models. FV is up 7% over the last 3 months and DWAT is up 6%. Both are automatically adjusted to hold the best ETFs within their respective allowable investments.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – not a time to invest.
7 distribution days for the Nasdaq and 6 distribution days for the S&P500 – anything over 4 suggests a down market may be coming because the larger investment portforios are selling stock.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 21.36, a sell price 20.76, a rank of 15, and is a Hikd.
SBiotechnology has a price of 223.79, a sell price 217.99, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 218.01 a sell price 211.74, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
STransportation has a price of 95.79, a sell price 91.54, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 74.30, a sell price 70.64, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

In Paul Merriman’s latest podcast (24 Dec) he discussed “How To Get the Most Out of PaulMerriman.com.” It is a website with articles, 401(k) plan reccomendations for over 100 company plans, free ebooks and to my suprise an article on investment timing. Every time I’ve listened to his podcast he has strongly pushed buy and hold as the only form of investing. In an article titled “Why Market Timing Doesn’t Work”, he points out that about half of his investments are governed by timing. It is an article worth reading.

This week the Wall Street Journal reported that the total amount of economic stimulation various governments have made is over $18T since they started with more to come. That money will have to go somewhere and some of it will continue to support the stock market until investors lose faith in their governments.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – not a time to invest.
Last week not one of my top 20 funds was rated as a buy by having an increasing deviation for the last two weeks. This week 17 are rated buy.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 21.52, a sell price 20.76, a rank of 22, and is a hold until it is time to buy something else.
SBiotechnology has a price of 222.33, a sell price 217.99, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 219.37 a sell price 211.74, a rank of 06, and is a Hold.
STransportation has a price of 96.36, a sell price 91.54, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 74.36, a sell price 70.64, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

For many years I’ve occasionally listened to James Lange whose website is paytaxeslater.com. He produces a radio show in Pittsburgh every other Wednesday night. I receintly found he is now podcasting his show. I suggest you go to paytaxeslater.com/radioshow.php and listen to episode 100 which is the highlights of all the previous show. As I listened, I noticed several recommendations would have helped me financially over the years.

So the federal reserve board comes out and announces we still are not going to raise interest rates, and the market takes off. We are in a market controlled by governmental comments.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – not a time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 21.75, a sell price 20.76, a rank of 08, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 229.46, a sell price 217.99, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 222.88. a sell price 211.74, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
STransportation has a price of 94.53, a sell price 91.05, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 71.75, a sell price 70.76, a rank of 06, and is a Hold.
Four of my five funds had distributions and the sell price has been adjusted appropriately.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

As oil prices decline, oil demand seems to be declining also and the question is “is the world going into a recession”. The decrease in oil prices is obviously going to put some oil companies out of business, employees out of work, and thus the tax flow to governments less. Worldwide, Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Russia and Venezuela all require a price of greater than $100 to support their budgets. With oil at $57.49 a barrel these countries are do not have enough income to support their spending. If oil remains low for any length of time the unrest of these countrys and their citizens will increase.
On 10Dec IBD TBP’s Current Outlook declined from confirmed uptrend. This is sure a time to make sure your are ready to sell. The investments I have in my 4 ETF portfolio all have stop loss orders waiting for execution based on 8% below the hightest daily close. As a result of these stop loss orders, 2 ETFs in those portfolios were sold earlier in te week.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – not a time to invest.
Only 3 of the 130 funds I follow would be a buy on my criteria.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 22.38, a sell price 21.85, a rank of 10, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 218.95, a sell price 208.00, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 233.93. a sell price 225.88, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
STransportation has a price of 93.97, a sell price 92.25, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 72.54, a sell price 71.28, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

One of the more interesting emails I received was “The Felder Report” by Jesse Felder. “I couldn’t be more vocal about the risks to investors in the US stock market …” The blog can be read at http://thefelderreport.com/2014/12/03/the-true-contrarian-is-on-an-island/. It is worth a read.
China has overtaken the US as the world’s largest economy. China’s economy has been growing at 7% per year and the US at 2%. There are several ETFs which invest in China. Doug Fabian at Fabianwealth.com has a weekly podcast where he coninues to suggest some of the better China ETFs.
Paul Merrimon has a weekly podcast where he presents his ideas on long term investing. In his latest podcast he mentioned that he has review annuities and feels the USAA and Vanguard offer the best annuity at the lowest cost.
The government is proposing that you be allowed to rollover your 401k into a governent annunity. It will be managed and guaranteed by the government. As an annuity you will get a fixed monthly income, but unable to get to the balance if you need it and when you pass away it is gone. Seems like another way for the government to take your money. 18T in admitted debt (and 113T in additional guarentees) and they want me to let them have my 401k.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest.
Only 7 of the 130 funds I follow would be a buy on my criteria.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.00, a sell price 21.85, a rank of 08, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 218.42, a sell price 207.50, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 237.77. a sell price 225.88, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
STransportation has a price of 97.11, a sell price 92.25, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 75.03, a sell price 71.28, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
The price and sell price of SBiotechnology was adjusted by a distribution of 23.84.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

Don, one of the subscribers to this email, sent me an interesting article titled “This Is Probably The Second Worst Time In History to Own Stocks.” The graph is the article showed how the S&P500 is greater than 90% above its long-term trend for the second time since 1871. It was 74% above in Aug29 and 148% above in Dec99. Margin debt in brokerage accounts is 38% greater than it was in early 2000. The S&P500 is up 11% over the last 30 days. Please make sure you are ready to sell when you have lost enough. You can always buy the investment again.

November was a good month for my investments.
In November IRA#1 +3%, IRA#2 +4%, PDP PIE PIZ DWAS +0%, TQQQ +14%, TQQQ/SQQQ +14%, Power4 +2%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 -4%, IRS#2 -1%, PDPetc -2%, TQQQ +19%, TQQQ/SQQQ +24%, Power4 -1%.
November portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – None.
IRA#2 – Purchased SHealthCare on 11/3, STransport on 11/10, SAirTransport on 11/17, and sold SUtilites on 11/17.
PDP PIE PIX DWAS – Purchased DWAS on 11/03, PIE on 11/03, and sold 1/3 PDP on 11/03.
TQQQ – None.
TQQQ/SQQQ – None.
Power4 – None.

My investing rules for these portfolios are on my web site:
1 – for funds https://www.flynndj.com/my-iras/fund-evaluation-method/
2 – for ETFs https://www.flynndj.com/7-etf-investment-study/

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 22.95, a sell price 21.80, a rank of 09, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 239.90, a sell price 227.91, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 236.08. a sell price 224.28, a rank of 07, and is a Hold.
STransportation has a price of 96.22, a sell price 91.41, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 74.05, a sell price 70.35, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

David Stockman’s Contra Corner is a place where mainstream Delusions and cant about the Welfare State, the Bailout State, Bubble Finance and Beltway Banditry are ripped, refuted and rebuked. His article on 14Nov14 was titled “Take Cover Now—They Don’t Ring A Bell At The Top” is worth reading http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/take-cover-now-they-dont-ring- a-bell-at-the-top/

Investors Business Daily The Big Pictures’s Current Outlook reports the S&P500 had a distribution day on 04Nov and the Nasdaq had a distribution day on 29Oct and 13Nov. The rate of increase is slowing, but nothing to worry about yet. Over the last 27 market days the S&P500 has been up 10%. The trend obviously cannot continue. It it did, over the next 12 months the S&P500 will be up about 90%. The market was helped this week by China cutting its federal funds rate and the EU reserve bank talking about buying up more member countries debt. The only thing the market seems to be watching these days is the amount of money various countries will print.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 22.47, a sell price 21.35, a rank of 08, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 231.73, a sell price 222.25, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 230.51. a sell price 218.98, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
STransportation has a price of 94.11, a sell price 89.40, a rank 0f 01, and is a Hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 71.22, a sell price 67.64, a rank of 04, and is a Buy.
Over the next couple of weeks, Fidelity will be distributing year end distributions – for example, SBiotechnology’s distribution is going to be about $25.31 per share on 12/05. You have the choice to have them reinvested in the fund or invested in CashReserves. I have always felt that CashReserves is the best place because by the time a fund has a distribution, it may not be a buy but could be a sell. Call Fidelity to change your distribution options.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

On the 07Nov14 issue of Consuelo Mack’s Wealthtrack (www.wealthtrack.com) Robert Klienschmidt provided the evidence that the FED will never raise the interest rates. Remember the country was “shut down” twice over cutting the un-passed budget growth by 30B (the senate has not passed a budget in 5+ years). With a debt of 18T, if interest rates increase by 1%, the increase in US interest payments will increase by 180B. If the rates go back to the normal level of ~5% the increase in US interest payments will be more than 700B and thus increase the debt by even more. The FED will not raise the interest rates and bankrupt the US.

In his 14Nov14 podcast Doug Fabian is strongly suggesting investing in China ETFs. He mentioned FXI and ASHR. His logic is since the Chinese market is 70% off the its previous high, it is time for it to go up. Fidelity’s China Region mutual fund was ranked 85 last week and 67 this week. It is improving but has a long way to go to hit the top 20.

Investors Business Daily The Big Pictures’s Current Outlook reports the S&P500 had a distribution day on 04Nov and the Nasdaq had a distribution day on 29Oct and 13Nov. The rate of increase is slowing, but nothing to worry about yet.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest.

My current investments:
SUtilities has a price of 77.29, a sell price 75.91, a rank of 42, and is a Sell to buy SAirTransportation.
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 21.97, a sell price 21.04, a rank of 12, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 226.33, a sell price 222.25, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 225.84. a sell price 214.81, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
STransportation has a price of 93.40, a sell price 88.73, a rank 0f 01, and is a Hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 70.14, a sell price TBD, a rank of 03, and is a Buy.
SAirTransportation is benefitting from the drop in oil prices.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell SUtilities and buy SAirtransportation.

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

Investors Business Daily The Big Pictures’s Current Outlook reports the S&P500 had a distribution day on 04Nov joining the Nasdaq which had a distribution day on 29Oct. Distribution days are the down days on higher volume which is an indication that larger investors are selling. They tend to be an indication of slowing upward market momentum. When the count reaches or exceeds 4, the trend is probably over. The count on 30Sep was 7 for the Nasdaq and 6 for the S&P500 the last day before the IBD TBP’s Current Outlook changed to Market in Correction. On 21Oct IBD TBP’s Current Outlook changed to Confirmed Uptrend.

Doug Fabian has set up a new web site, etfu.com, to educate investors on ETFs. He has a podcast on this website where he gives information on how much better ETFs are than mutual funds. Most 401k programs do not offer ETFs yet. Hopefully someday 410ks will offer ETFs. In Fabian’s weekly Friday podcast he discussed income ETFs. He suggested investors look at BIZD yielding 8%, YYY yielding 8.9%, PCEF yielding 7.3%, GYLD yielding 6.9%, IYLD yielding 5.7%, YMLP yielding 9%, and AMLP yielding 6.2%. At Fabian’s web site, fabian.com, a weekly ETF report is available, emailed on Wednesdays.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest.

My current investments:
SUtilities has a price of 79.80, a sell price 75.91, a rank of 06, and is a Hold.
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 21.82, a sell price 21.04, a rank of 12, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 228.79, a sell price 222.25, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 226.12. a sell price 214.81, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
STransportation has a price of 92.38, a sell price TBD, a rank 0f 01, and is a Buy.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Buy STransportation

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

Doug Fabian has a weekly podcast where he discusses the market and his suggestions on ETFs. On his podcast for 24Oct he suggested several ETFs some of which are paying more than a 6% dividend. You may want to listen to his podcasts or check out his web site – www.fabian.com – for investment ideas.
The FED came out and quit buying assets as they said they planned. And the markets anticipating this had started down in early September. However the fix was in and this decline, unlike the previous 3 declines, was not stopped by more money printing in the US. The Japanese picked up the ball and will be buying $1T in bonds and increasing by 150% their stock and bond allocations in the Japanese pension plans. So we still have a market propped up by government bond and stock buying. The end result of this is that those with a greater percent of their assets in investments get richer and those who own little or save in a bank get poorer. The US government keeps complaining about the income gap – the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. And yet they are causing it with their policies.

October was a poor month for most investments. The month started down and about the middle of the month started up again.
In October IRA#1 -5%, IRA#2 -3%, PDP PIE PIZ DWAS +1%, TQQQ +11%, TQQQ/SQQQ +21%, Power4 -0%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 -2%, IRS#2 -3%, PDPetc +3%, TQQQ +14%, TQQQ/SQQQ +11%, Power4 N/A.
September portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – Sold SBiotechnology 10/13, purchased SBiotechnology on 10/27.
IRA#2 – Sold SBiotechnology, SElectronics 10/13, sold SHealthCare on 10/20, purchased SBiotechnology on 10/27.
PDP PIE PIX DWAS – Sold PIE on 10/01, sold PDP on 10/06, purchased PDP on 10/27.
TQQQ – Sold TQQQ on 10/01, purchased TQQQ on 10/22.
TQQQ/SQQQ – Purchased SQQQ on 10/02, sold SQQQ on 10/20, purchased TQQQ on 10/22.
Power4 – Sold PYZ on 10/02, sold PTH on 10/13, sold PSL on 10/21, purchased PTH, PFI, PSL, PUI on 10/27.

My investing rules for these portfolios are on my web site:
1 – for funds https://www.flynndj.com/my-iras/fund-evaluation-method/
2 – for ETFs https://www.flynndj.com/7-etf-investment-study/

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest.

My current investments:
SUtilities has a price of 77.80, a sell price 73.91, a rank of 14, and is a Hold.
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 22.15, a sell price 21.04, a rank of 07, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 233.95, a sell price 222.25, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 228.70. a sell price TBD, a rank of 02, and is a Buy.
Out of the 130 Fidelity funds I follow, 119 have had increasing deviations from their moving average which is a buy based on my rules.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Buy SHealthCare

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested