Author: Flynn

Not a good week. Out of the 130 funds I follow only CashReserves and SBanking are buys and with fund rankings of 107 and 71. As I mentioned in my 27Feb email there are several market indicators which say this should be a good year, however I still think the market will peak soon (if it hasn’t already).
One of the ETFs I’ve mentioned before is FV – First Trust Dorsey Wright Associates (DWA) Focus 5 ETF. It is designed to proved investments in sector and industry based ETFs which DWA believes will have the greatest possibility to out perform. A weekly analysis of relative strength determinse which ETFs constitute FV. As of 13Mar15 FV was made up of a Consumer Discretionary fund (FXD), Consumer Staples fund (FXG), Dow Jones Internet Index fund (FDN), Health Care fund (FXH), and Biotechnology fund (FBT).
FV is up about 11% over the last 3 months. With an ETF, unlike a fund, it can be purchased or sold at any time of the day and a stop loss order can be used to limit losses.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – not a time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.31, a sell price 22.14, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 259.76, a sell price 246.77 a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 240.78 a sell price 228.74, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 87.89, a sell price 84.99, a rank of 06, and is a Hold.
SRetailing has a price of 93.76, a sell price 89.40, a rank of 08, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

Not a good week. Out of the 130 funds I follow only CashReserves is a buy and it has a fund rank is 108. Friday the IBD TBP’s Current Outlook changed due a day when both the Nasdaq and S&P500 had distribution days. Distribution days happen when the market is down on volume – an indication the large portfolio managers are selling.
The world wide printing of money has resulted in countries like Germany, Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, and Austria selling negative yielding bond. You can purchase a bond which at maturity will be redeemed for less than your purchase price. There have been over 2T of such bonds issued. This is just another governments effort trying to get investors to invest in the market or spend their money to stimulate the economy.
Gary Kaltbaum’s Friday podcast suggests the Nasdaq on 02Mar when it close at over 5,000 was at a near term top – for two or four weeks – subject to change.
The price of Biotechnology and HealthCare funds continue to go up. It really reminds me of the .com bubble in 2000 which did not end well.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – not a time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 22.88, a sell price 21.93, a rank of 08, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 258.46, a sell price 245.54, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 237.16 a sell price 225.30, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 89.46, a sell price 84.99, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SRetailing has a price of 94.11, a sell price 89.40, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

Paul Merriman has a weekly podcast in which he presents investment suggestions and answers questions. On his web site, paulmerriman.com, he offers free boods on investing, suggestions on various 401k plans, various articles on investing (he also writes for marketwatch.com), and buy and hold forever suggestion for mutual fund and ETF investors at Vanguard, Fidelity, and TRowePrice. On his podcasts he also talks about market timing using a 150 day moving average – price above the average buy, below sell.
Most of the other podcasts I listen to are talking about a continuing up market. Some point out we are in the best year of the decade (all years ending in 5), the best year of the presidential cycle (the 3rd year), and the best part of the year (November through April).

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest.
I’m still convinced the market is peaking, but will still follow the trend.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.08, a sell price 21.93, a rank of 07, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 248.00, a sell price 235.60, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 236.44 a sell price 224.62, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 43.09, a sell price 71.18, a rank of 32, and is a Sell so I can buy SRetailing.
SElectronics has a price of 89.46, a sell price 84.99, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
SRealtailing has a price of 95.27, a sell price TBD, a rank of 05, and is a buy

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell SAirTransportation and buy SRetailing.

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

I am a little late in documenting this: January was a poor month for many of my investments.
In January IRA#1 +7%, IRA#2 -0%, PDP PIE PIZ DWAS -2%, TQQQ -17%, TQQQ/SQQQ -19%, Power4 +0%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 +12%, IRS#2 +4%, PDPetc -2%, TQQQ -14%, TQQQ/SQQQ -19%, Power4 +3%.
January portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – None.
IRA#2 – None.
PDP PIE PIX DWAS – None.
TQQQ – Sold last 50% TQQQ on 01/05, purchased TQQQ on 01/09, sold TQQQ on 01/15, purchased TQQQ on 01/23, sold TQQQ on 1/27.
TQQQ/SQQQ – Purchased SQQQ on 01/06, sold SQQQ on 01/05, purchased TQQQ on 01/09, sold TQQQ on 01/15, purchased TQQQ on 01/23, sold TQQQ on 1/27.
Power4 – Sold PSL on 01/05, sold PUI on 01/27.
TQQQ and TQQQ/SQQQ losses were caused by the 8% stop loss and the volatility of the two ETFs. IBD’s program was set up to use QQQ and I felt, perhaps incorrectly, if QQQ can do well, triple -TQQQ- can do it better.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest.
I’m still convinced the market is peaking, but will follow the trend.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 22.96, a sell price 21.81, a rank of 11, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 246.70, a sell price 234.37, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 235.48 a sell price 223.71, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 74.93, a sell price 71.18, a rank of 15, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 89.30, a sell price 84.84, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

Three weeks ago prior to the EU deciding to start quantitative easing (QE) by buying 1.3T in bonds there had been 502 governmental actions to ease interest rates over the last 3 year. Many years ago the motto was do not fight the fed. Well every country has enherited the QE desease. Some countries allow you to invest in their government bonds and they charge you an interst rate. In Sweeden the current interest rate for government bonds is -0.1%. Countries through the world are telling investors not to hold money or buy bonds. I’m still convinced we are headed for a down market, but will not fight the feds.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – Time to invest. IBD changed the outlook Tuesday night – 10Feb.
BTW the market is closed on Monday, Presidents’ day

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 22.46, a sell price 21.34, a rank of 14, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 236.23, a sell price 224.42, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 229.52 a sell price 218.04, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 72.82, a sell price 70.64, a rank of 24, and is a Hold until I need to sell it to buy something else.
SElectronics has a price of 14.78, a sell price TBD, a rank of 02, and is a buy.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Buy SElectronics.

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

Like last week, I am spending too much time working. Hopefully I will be able to add a comment to this next week.
My only thought is that this is not an up market.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Pnder Pressure” – Not a Time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 21.99, a sell price 21.06, a rank of 12, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 229.44, a sell price 224.06, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 224.89 a sell price 215.88, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 72.38, a sell price 70.64, a rank of 14, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

On the 15Jan show of Moneylife, Chuck Jaffe’s guest was David Brown of Sabrient Systems – sabrientsystems.com. Each year they present Sabrient Baker’s Dozen which has outperformed the market every year it has been presented – 6 years. The current list can be review at http://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/dp/dpsummary.aspx?fundid=10624. That URL is really an information sheet for the unit invest trust – FNHTMX – which has extra charges. The dozen, tracked at http://www.dark-liquidity.com/SabrientSystems.php gained 22% last year. One of their 2014 dozen lost 46% and one gained  116%. If I were to invest in some of the dozen, I would just follow all 13 and buy that which is going up the most.

As some of you pointed out I made a slight error in my quote for for SHealthCare last week. Thank you for noticing the error.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – Not a Time to invest. The Outlook declined to it’s current level after the market decline on Wed.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 21.79, a sell price 21.06, a rank of 07, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 235.85, a sell price 224.06, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 222.20 a sell price 215.88, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
STransportation has a price of 90.38, a sell price 91.54, and is a sell.
SAirTransportation has a price of 71.63, a sell price 70.64, a rank of 09, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell STransportation

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested 

James Lange has a radio show which he podcasts. On is web site www.paytaxeslater.com, episode 102 features Dr. Laurence Kotlikoff, a professor at Boston University. He has written several books including The Clash of Generations: Saving Ourselves, Our Kids and Our Economy. After a horrendously gloomy picture of our future he provides solutions an individual can take. There is limited discussion of the book and the primary discussion was social security, providing some options to maximise your benefits. Taking benefits based on just becoming retirement age is probably one of the worst reasons to start taking benefits.
So the European Union decided to start quentative easing in order to stimulate European economies by buying $1.3T in bonds. When the owners of the bonds sell them, the money is then used to buy other investments. Thus the market goes up. The Nasdaq went up 1.8% the day the EU QE was announced. Again governments are controlling the markets by printing money. Investment prices are not based on earnings, growth, etc. but on what the next government financial official does or says.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – Time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 22.17, a sell price 21.06, a rank of 09, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 235.05, a sell price 223.30, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 227.04 a sell price 215.69, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
STransportation has a price of 94.68, a sell price 91.54, a rank of 08, and is a Hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 74.03, a sell price 70.64, a rank of 06, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook was in a confirmed uptrend until the close on 1/13/15. A review of the Nasdaq Composite Index chart – http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ – will show the close of the index below the 50 moving average on Tuesday and continuing down.
On the Nightly Business Report today, Monhamed El-Erian said in his view we were entering a world of increased volatility. He also said the ECB stimulus expected next week was at least 500,000,000 Euro and anything less would cause investments to sell off. Welcome to Government Markets.
One of the investments I’ve missed is buying a home in Palo Alto. The Nightly Business Report indicated the the median price of homes under 1000 square feet was 1.7M in 2014. Anyone see another housing bubble?
With tax season underway – the IRS accepted the first return from my office on 1/14 – stolen idenity is also underway. If you live in FL, GA, or DC (leaders in identity thieft) you can apply online for an Idenity Protection PIN online and get it in about 5 minutes. With that IP PIN any tax return submitted with your social security number will be rejected unless that PIN is on the return (if the IRS checks the IP PIN which it did not do the first year the program started). It is probably not a bad idea to get an IP PIN, especially if you have spent some time in a hospital in the last couple of years.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – Not a time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 22.09, a sell price 20.99, a rank of 07, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 232.62, a sell price 220.99, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 223.35 a sell price 212.18, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
STransportation has a price of 91.66, a sell price 91.54, a rank of 09, and is a Hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 71.13, a sell price 70.64, a rank of 11, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

In the old days GM was short for General Motors. After the government bailed them out, GM changed to Government Motors. The latest definition of GM is Government Markets. On Wednesday the Federal Reserve Board came out and said they were concerned about the recession in which so many foreign countries found themselves. The implication was that more money printing could be required. Thus the markets responded by going up. After Tuesday I was concerned about being fully invested but by week end, I was happy I was fully invested.
Over the last coumple of years over 120 biotechnology firms have gone public and sold stock to investors. Most of these new offerings had no sales but the public liked the concepts. Investors have purchased the stocks and created companies with market valuation of billions with no sales. This is exactly what happened in the .com bubble of the late 1990s. We are obviously in a biotechnology bubble and someday it will burst.
It turns out I did not leave town this weekend as soon as I thought I would so had time to produce this report.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Confirmed” – time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 21.79, a sell price 20.76, a rank of 09, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 230.71, a sell price 219.17, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 223.18 a sell price 212.02, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
STransportation has a price of 92.81, a sell price 91.54, a rank of 08, and is a Hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 72.93, a sell price 70.64, a rank of 07, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested