Flynn – Page 3 – FlynnDJ.com

22 May 2020

A good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -125, -284, and now 41 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 69, 16, and now 10.

In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 8% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 12% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 13% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ is above its 200 day moving average.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is positive but not up 2 weeks in a row.

Well it seemed like a good week, sure wish I had an indication of what was next. How a market can go up during a coming recession is scary.

In a classic case of bad timing, I decided on 1/1/20 to invest a little in the top 5 Fidelity mutual funds basis on their previous one month return. Each month when Fidelity publishes the numbers I change the investments to the latest top 5 funds. For the first quarter of 2020, I lost 16.70%. After a minute gain in April I am still down 15.11%.

Pacer Trendpilot ETFs offer funds which switch to T-Bills anytime the index they follow declines below the index 200 day average. As of 5/21 their holdings are:
PTLC Pacer Trendpilot US Large Cap ETF follow the S&P500 index and is 100% in T-Bills.
PTMC Pacer Trendpilot US Mid Cap ETF follows the S&P MidCap 400 index and is 100% in T-Bills.
PTNQ Pacer Trendpilot 100 ETF follows the NASDAQ-100 index and is 100% invested in equities.
PTBD Pacer Trendpilot US Bond ETF follows the S&P U.S. High Yield Corporate Bond index and is in T-Bonds.
I am currently invested in PTNQ.
There are two other Pacer Trendpilot funds which follow other indexes.

IRA#1
No investments

IRA#2
No investments

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
25.22 01-09 FSAGX 29.72 SGold NO
13.83 02-03 FBIOX 23.14 SBiotechnology YES
13.10 03-07 FBGRX 117.20 BlueChipGrowth NO
11.83 04-06 FSPTX 21.01 STechnology NO
11.26 05-04 FSCSX 21.34 SSoftware&ITServices NO
10.91 06-06 FIFNX 12.70 Founders YES
10.88 07-21 FTRNX 113.97 Trend NO
10.77 08-18 FOCPX 13.44 OTCPortfolio NO
10.09 09-01 FSENX 22.06 SEnergy YES
10.07 10-07 FNCMX 117.37 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
9.37 11-01 FSRPX 17.42 SRetailing NO
8.66 12-07 FCNTX 14.15 Contrafund NO
8.45 13-12 FLGEX 22.23 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
8.37 14-11 FSPHX 29.18 SHealthCare NO
8.23 15-03 FTQGX 26.70 FocusedStock NO
8.10 16-02 FSHCX 104.89 SHealthCareServices YES
8.00 17-02 FDSVX 42.03 GrowthDiscovery NO
7.72 18-01 FBMPX 64.48 SCommunicationServices NO
7.02 19-03 FFIDX 51.46 Fidelity NO
6.94 20-12 FPHAX 23.21 SPharmaceuticals NO
Last Week
30.57 01-08 FSAGX 30.58 SGold YES
11.94 02-02 FBIOX 22.59 SBiotechnology YES
9.18 03-05 FIFNX 12.43 Founders YES
9.11 04-10 FSPHX 29.25 SHealthCare YES
8.90 05-06 FBGRX 112.07 BlueChipGrowth NO
8.41 06-05 FSPTX 20.24 STechnology NO
8.12 07-20 FTRNX 110.50 Trend NO
8.02 08-11 FPHAX 23.36 SPharmaceuticals YES
7.83 09-03 FSCSX 20.56 SSoftware&ITServices NO
7.34 10-17 FOCPX 12.95 OTCPortfolio NO
6.94 11-06 FNCMX 113.42 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
6.19 12-11 FLGEX 21.67 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
6.15 13-06 FCNTX 13.76 Contrafund NO
6.05 14-01 FSHCX 102.46 SHealthCareServices YES
6.01 15-05 FSMEX 59.55 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices NO
5.57 16-02 FTQGX 25.93 FocusedStock NO
5.32 17-12 FHKCX 38.87 ChinaRegion NO
5.02 18-12 FSEAX 44.90 EmergingAsia NO
4.87 19-02 FFIDX 50.24 Fidelity NO
4.67 20-01 FDSVX 40.56 GrowthDiscovery NO

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(23Mar20) from STechnology(FSPTX)(18Feb20)
Mar20 1m-21% 3m-31% 6m-17% 12m-17% 24m-25%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(23Mar20) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(18Feb20)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SHealthCareServices(09Dec19)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SComputers(16Dec19)
20% – Cash(02Mar20) from STechnology(21Jan20)
20% – Cash(02Mar20) from SWireless(21Oct19)
Mar20 1m-3% 3m-7% 6m-0% 12m+0% 24m-4%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%

15 May 2020

A bad week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -536, -125, and now -284 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 22, 69, and now 16.

In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 6% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 11% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 5% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ is above its 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is negative.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is negative.

Looks like the S&P500 hit a high on 10Feb at about 3380, before it declined to 2237 on 23Mar, and within the last month hit about 2930. Most of the market monitors I listen to indicate it probably will not hold 2930 before it declines to test the 23Mar bottom. All of this is complicated by fact that the Federal Reserve Board is now buying high yield bond ETFs to support the bond market and the Congress deciding to spend another 3T+/- to support the falling economy.

One of the measurements of the economy is the unemployment rate. It hit a high of 24.9% in 1933 and now stand at 14.7%. In about two weeks the latest unemployment rate will be reported. It sure would be nice if enough employees found jobs so it would not increase much more.

IRA#1
No investments

IRA#2
No investments

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2
weeks).
30.57 01-08 FSAGX 30.58 SGold YES
11.94 02-02 FBIOX 22.59 SBiotechnology YES
9.18 03-05 FIFNX 12.43 Founders YES
9.11 04-10 FSPHX 29.25 SHealthCare YES
8.90 05-06 FBGRX 112.07 BlueChipGrowth NO
8.41 06-05 FSPTX 20.24 STechnology NO
8.12 07-20 FTRNX 110.50 Trend NO
8.02 08-11 FPHAX 23.36 SPharmaceuticals YES
7.83 09-03 FSCSX 20.56 SSoftware&ITServices NO
7.34 10-17 FOCPX 12.95 OTCPortfolio NO
6.94 11-06 FNCMX 113.42 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
6.19 12-11 FLGEX 21.67 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
6.15 13-06 FCNTX 13.76 Contrafund NO
6.05 14-01 FSHCX 102.46 SHealthCareServices YES
6.01 15-05 FSMEX 59.55 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices NO
5.57 16-02 FTQGX 25.93 FocusedStock NO
5.32 17-12 FHKCX 38.87 ChinaRegion NO
5.02 18-12 FSEAX 44.90 EmergingAsia NO
4.87 19-02 FFIDX 50.24 Fidelity NO
4.67 20-01 FDSVX 40.56 GrowthDiscovery NO
Last Week
27.20 01-07 FSAGX 29.31 SGold NO
10.32 02-05 FBGRX 113.00 BlueChipGrowth NO
9.96 03-04 FSPTX 20.44 STechnology YES
9.81 04-02 FSCSX 20.85 SSoftware&ITServices YES
9.36 05-19 FTRNX 111.28 Trend NO
9.25 06-16 FOCPX 13.13 OTCPortfolio NO
8.83 07-04 FIFNX 12.33 Founders NO
8.60 08-05 FNCMX 114.76 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
8.01 09-01 FBIOX 21.66 SBiotechnology NO
7.58 10-09 FSPHX 28.70 SHealthCare NO
7.17 11-10 FLGEX 21.80 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
6.99 12-10 FPHAX 23.04 SPharmaceuticals NO
6.73 13-05 FCNTX 13.79 Contrafund NO
6.62 14-11 FHKCX 39.24 ChinaRegion NO
6.33 15-11 FSEAX 45.34 EmergingAsia NO
6.24 16-04 FSMEX 59.49 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices NO
5.87 17-01 FSRPX 16.74 SRetailing YES
5.83 18-01 FDEQX 39.55 DisciplinedEquity YES
5.76 19-01 FTQGX 25.90 FocusedStock NO
5.73 20-01 FFIDX 50.52 Fidelity NO

08 May 2020

A good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -618, -536, and now -125 – up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 30, 22, and now 69.

In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 7% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 12% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 9% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ is above its 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is negative.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is negative.

Most of the market pundits I listen to claim this is a bear market bounce thanks to the trillions printed by the Federal Reserve Board and the stimulus. Like 1929 the DJIA has had a nice bounce – in 1929 was up ~66% from the bottom to the next peak about 5 months later before declining ~80% over the next 3 years. Currently the DJIA is up ~70% from the latest 23Mar bottom.

Another factor of concern is the number of stocks up and number down. Reviewing ETF QQQ which follow the NASDAQ 100 index, the top 10 stocks account for more than 50% of the index as it goes up. The advance decline index measures the advancing vs declining stock issues and is negative for the QQQ. Not a good sign.

IRA#1
No investments

IRA#2
No investments

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
27.20 01-07 FSAGX 29.31 SGold NO
10.32 02-05 FBGRX 113.00 BlueChipGrowth NO
9.96 03-04 FSPTX 20.44 STechnology YES
9.81 04-02 FSCSX 20.85 SSoftware&ITServices YES
9.36 05-19 FTRNX 111.28 Trend NO
9.25 06-16 FOCPX 13.13 OTCPortfolio NO
8.83 07-04 FIFNX 12.33 Founders NO
8.60 08-05 FNCMX 114.76 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
8.01 09-01 FBIOX 21.66 SBiotechnology NO
7.58 10-09 FSPHX 28.70 SHealthCare NO
7.17 11-10 FLGEX 21.80 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
6.99 12-10 FPHAX 23.04 SPharmaceuticals NO
6.73 13-05 FCNTX 13.79 Contrafund NO
6.62 14-11 FHKCX 39.24 ChinaRegion NO
6.33 15-11 FSEAX 45.34 EmergingAsia NO
6.24 16-04 FSMEX 59.49 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices NO
5.87 17-01 FSRPX 16.74 SRetailing YES
5.83 18-01 FDEQX 39.55 DisciplinedEquity YES
5.76 19-01 FTQGX 25.90 FocusedStock NO
5.73 20-01 FFIDX 50.52 Fidelity NO

Last Week
23.32 01-06 FSAGX 28.01 SGold NO
4.92 02-09 FPHAX 22.51 SPharmaceuticals NO
3.91 03-18 FTRNX 105.22 Trend NO
3.46 04-08 FSPHX 27.49 SHealthCare NO
3.27 05-15 FOCPX 12.35 OTCPortfolio NO
3.16 06-04 FBGRX 105.09 BlueChipGrowth NO
2.86 07-04 FNCMX 108.21 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
2.69 08-03 FIFNX 11.58 Founders NO
2.68 09-04 FSHCX 98.66 SHealthCareServices NO
2.67 10-09 FNBGX 17.36 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index NO
2.66 11-10 FHKCX 37.65 ChinaRegion NO
2.59 12-09 FLGEX 20.79 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
2.12 13-01 FSCSX 19.29 SSoftware&ITServices NO
2.05 14-03 FSPTX 18.87 STechnology NO
1.98 15-04 FCNTX 13.13 Contrafund NO
1.70 16-07 FFIDX 48.45 Fidelity NO
1.64 17-03 FSMEX 56.73 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices NO
1.58 18-10 FSEAX 43.17 EmergingAsia NO
1.25 19-01 FSTGX 11.16 IntermediateGovernmentIncome NO
1.25 20-01 FSRPX 15.96 SRetailing NO

01 May 2020

A poor week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -609, -618, and now -536 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 83, 30, and now 22.

In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 6% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 0% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ, IWM SPY are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is negative.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.

I suggest you take 10 minutes to listen to VRA Podcast – Vertical Research Advisory – each evening. 01May they continued to reconfirm their bear market view – which many other also feel. One of their topics today was how are people going react when they are allowed go out after the this intentional economic destruction. Last week I mention the 48% funded $73k per year inflation adjusted public teachers pensions in Chicago. I received a report on a small pension I had. If I had been employed for 25 years (as the teachers) I would be in a 81% funded 30k no inflation adjusted pension. There is no house of representatives trying to bail out private pensions with my taxes. Several years ago a friend’s father was in a pension insured by Executive Life Insurance Corporation. Seems when the government pension benefit corporation took over his pension it was reduced by 90%. Have a insurance guaranteed pension or annuity? Think about it.

IRA#1
No investments

IRA#2
No investments

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2

weeks).
23.32 01-06 FSAGX 28.01 SGold NO
4.92 02-09 FPHAX 22.51 SPharmaceuticals NO
3.91 03-18 FTRNX 105.22 Trend NO
3.46 04-08 FSPHX 27.49 SHealthCare NO
3.27 05-15 FOCPX 12.35 OTCPortfolio NO
3.16 06-04 FBGRX 105.09 BlueChipGrowth NO
2.86 07-04 FNCMX 108.21 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
2.69 08-03 FIFNX 11.58 Founders NO
2.68 09-04 FSHCX 98.66 SHealthCareServices NO
2.67 10-09 FNBGX 17.36 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index NO
2.66 11-10 FHKCX 37.65 ChinaRegion NO
2.59 12-09 FLGEX 20.79 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
2.12 13-01 FSCSX 19.29 SSoftware&ITServices NO
2.05 14-03 FSPTX 18.87 STechnology NO
1.98 15-04 FCNTX 13.13 Contrafund NO
1.70 16-07 FFIDX 48.45 Fidelity NO
1.64 17-03 FSMEX 56.73 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices NO
1.58 18-10 FSEAX 43.17 EmergingAsia NO
1.25 19-01 FSTGX 11.16 IntermediateGovernmentIncome NO
1.25 20-01 FSRPX 15.96 SRetailing NO
Last Week
25.57 01-05 FSAGX 28.17 SGold YES
7.48 02-08 FPHAX 23.00 SPharmaceuticals YES
6.62 03-07 FSPHX 28.28 SHealthCare YES
5.66 04-02 FBIOX 21.09 SBiotechnology YES
4.75 05-03 FSHCX 100.51 SHealthCareServices NO
4.47 06-08 FNBGX 17.64 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index YES
4.21 07-17 FTRNX 105.30 Trend NO
4.03 08-14 FOCPX 12.42 OTCPortfolio YES
3.81 09-09 FHKCX 38.02 ChinaRegion NO
3.62 10-03 FBGRX 105.38 BlueChipGrowth YES
3.54 11-02 FIFNX 11.66 Founders YES
3.36 12-03 FNCMX 108.57 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
3.33 13-02 FSMEX 57.62 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices YES
3.23 14-08 FLGEX 20.89 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
2.25 15-09 FSEAX 43.42 EmergingAsia NO
2.25 16-03 FCNTX 13.15 Contrafund NO
2.19 17-06 FFIDX 48.64 Fidelity NO
1.80 18-01 FCVSX 29.90 ConvertibleSecurities YES
1.73 19-02 FSPTX 18.79 STechnology NO
1.58 20-01 FTQGX 24.79 FocusedStock NO

24 April 2020

A marginal week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -874, -609, and now -618 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 10, 83, and now 30.

In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 1% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 6% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 5% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ and SPY are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is negative.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.

Lisa Shalett from Morgan Stanley Wealth Management was on Barron’s Roundtable this weekend. She indicated the S&P500 index is too concentrated with the top 5 stocks representing 25% of the index and another 300 stocks each representing less than 0.1% index. She prefers investors invest in stocks rather than passive investing in and index. She likes investments in financial, energy, industerials, materials, and value sectors. She also feels it will be 18 months before we completely recover from this downturn.

So the Federal Reserve Board is backing up state and local municipal bonds to maintain a level of liquidity for the municipal bond market. Additionally the next major US government handout is probably going to be a handout to the states. That should help the Chicago teachers pension fund which is only 48% funded continue to pay teachers pensions for 25 years of teaching $73,000 with annual inflation adjustments. Even though I left in the 60s the US government is going to take part of my taxes to help Chicago.

Gary Kaltbaum was on the Stuart Varney show this week and Stuart asked him what his top investment suggestion was. Gary said he should buy Microsoft. Stuart indicate he had sold his Microsoft stock a litle bit ago and invested the money in Boeing.

IRA#1
No investments

IRA#2
No investments

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
25.57 01-05 FSAGX 28.17 SGold YES
7.48 02-08 FPHAX 23.00 SPharmaceuticals YES
6.62 03-07 FSPHX 28.28 SHealthCare YES
5.66 04-02 FBIOX 21.09 SBiotechnology YES
4.75 05-03 FSHCX 100.51 SHealthCareServices NO
4.47 06-08 FNBGX 17.64 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index YES
4.21 07-17 FTRNX 105.30 Trend NO
4.03 08-14 FOCPX 12.42 OTCPortfolio YES
3.81 09-09 FHKCX 38.02 ChinaRegion NO
3.62 10-03 FBGRX 105.38 BlueChipGrowth YES
3.54 11-02 FIFNX 11.66 Founders YES
3.36 12-03 FNCMX 108.57 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
3.33 13-02 FSMEX 57.62 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices YES
3.23 14-08 FLGEX 20.89 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
2.25 15-09 FSEAX 43.42 EmergingAsia NO
2.25 16-03 FCNTX 13.15 Contrafund NO
2.19 17-06 FFIDX 48.64 Fidelity NO
1.80 18-01 FCVSX 29.90 ConvertibleSecurities YES
1.73 19-02 FSPTX 18.79 STechnology NO
1.58 20-01 FTQGX 24.79 FocusedStock NO
Last Week
13.95 01-04 FSAGX 25.22 SGold YES
6.00 02-02 FSHCX 101.46 SHealthCareServices YES
5.89 03-07 FPHAX 22.57 SPharmaceuticals YES
5.03 04-06 FSPHX 27.76 SHealthCare YES
4.91 05-16 FTRNX 105.78 Trend YES
4.13 06-08 FHKCX 38.06 ChinaRegion YES
4.00 07-13 FOCPX 12.39 OTCPortfolio YES
3.90 08-07 FLGEX 20.99 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex YES
3.74 09-02 FNCMX 108.78 NasdaqCompositeIndex YES
3.40 10-02 FBGRX 104.96 BlueChipGrowth YES
3.26 11-05 FFIDX 49.09 Fidelity YES
2.93 12-07 FNBGX 17.34 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index NO
2.81 13-01 FSMEX 57.23 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices YES
2.67 14-01 FIFNX 11.54 Founders YES
2.66 15-01 FBIOX 20.43 SBiotechnology YES
2.49 16-08 FSEAX 43.47 EmergingAsia YES
2.29 17-02 FCNTX 13.14 Contrafund YES
2.19 18-02 FDFFX 35.27 Independence YES
1.99 19-01 FMAGX 9.83 Magellan YES
1.99 20-01 FSPTX 18.82 STechnology YES

17 April 2020

An OK week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -1774, -874, and now -609 – up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 12, 10, and now 83.

In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 0% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 5% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 8% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ is above its 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is negative.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row but the sum is still negative.

Unlike the report in Saturday’s paper, I did not watch all 9 Star Wars in a row as the report’s author did. It was just a busy week at home.
One of the things which says inflation is the 2T CARES act and the 8T the federal reserve board use in quantitative easing. Nothing like increasing the national debt by 50% this month.

IRA#1
No investments

IRA#2
No investments

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
13.95 01-04 FSAGX 25.22 SGold YES
6.00 02-02 FSHCX 101.46 SHealthCareServices YES
5.89 03-07 FPHAX 22.57 SPharmaceuticals YES
5.03 04-06 FSPHX 27.76 SHealthCare YES
4.91 05-16 FTRNX 105.78 Trend YES
4.13 06-08 FHKCX 38.06 ChinaRegion YES
4.00 07-13 FOCPX 12.39 OTCPortfolio YES
3.90 08-07 FLGEX 20.99 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex YES
3.74 09-02 FNCMX 108.78 NasdaqCompositeIndex YES
3.40 10-02 FBGRX 104.96 BlueChipGrowth YES
3.26 11-05 FFIDX 49.09 Fidelity YES
2.93 12-07 FNBGX 17.34 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index NO
2.81 13-01 FSMEX 57.23 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices YES
2.67 14-01 FIFNX 11.54 Founders YES
2.66 15-01 FBIOX 20.43 SBiotechnology YES
2.49 16-08 FSEAX 43.47 EmergingAsia YES
2.29 17-02 FCNTX 13.14 Contrafund YES
2.19 18-02 FDFFX 35.27 Independence YES
1.99 19-01 FMAGX 9.83 Magellan YES
1.99 20-01 FSPTX 18.82 STechnology YES
8.56 01-03 FSAGX 23.85 SGold YES
1.61 02-06 FNBGX 17.09 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index NO
0.63 03-07 FHKCX 36.70 ChinaRegion NO
0.19 04-06 FPHAX 21.29 SPharmaceuticals YES
-0.41 05-01 FSHCX 95.02 SHealthCareServices NO
-0.77 06-15 FTRNX 99.79 Trend NO
-1.24 07-03 FFIDX 46.87 Fidelity NO
-1.24 08-06 FLGEX 19.91 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
-1.62 09-07 FSEAX 41.67 EmergingAsia NO
-1.71 10-05 FSPHX 25.91 SHealthCare YES
-1.92 11-12 FOCPX 11.66 OTCPortfolio NO
-1.93 12-05 FUAMX 11.96 IntermediateTreasuryBondIndex NO
-2.03 13-01 FNCMX 102.52 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
-2.42 14-01 FDFFX 33.64 Independence NO
-2.51 15-01 FDEQX 36.25 DisciplinedEquity YES
-2.58 16-01 FMAGX 9.38 Magellan NO
-2.87 17-43 FSCSX 18.30 SSoftware&ITServices NO
-2.92 18-04 FCVSX 28.47 ConvertibleSecurities NO
-2.97 19-01 FCNTX 12.45 Contrafund NO
-3.14 20-01 FBGRX 98.14 BlueChipGrowth NO

—
David John Flynn
LTC USA (Ret)
www.flynndj.com

10 April 2020

A very good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -1578, -1774, and now -874 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 05, 12, and now 05.

In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 4% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 2% below its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 10% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ is above its 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is negative.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.

https://www.paceretfs.com/media/trendpilot_tracker.pdf provides the latest information on all 6 Pacer Trentpilot ETFs. Out of the 6 Pacer Trendpilot ETFs 5 are still in treasury bills and QQQ is half invested in treasury bills and half in NASDAQ-100 index.

IRA#1
No investments

IRA#2
No investments

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2
weeks).
8.56 01-03 FSAGX 23.85 SGold YES
1.61 02-06 FNBGX 17.09 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index NO
0.63 03-07 FHKCX 36.70 ChinaRegion NO
0.19 04-06 FPHAX 21.29 SPharmaceuticals YES
-0.41 05-01 FSHCX 95.02 SHealthCareServices NO
-0.77 06-15 FTRNX 99.79 Trend NO
-1.24 07-03 FFIDX 46.87 Fidelity NO
-1.24 08-06 FLGEX 19.91 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
-1.62 09-07 FSEAX 41.67 EmergingAsia NO
-1.71 10-05 FSPHX 25.91 SHealthCare YES
-1.92 11-12 FOCPX 11.66 OTCPortfolio NO
-1.93 12-05 FUAMX 11.96 IntermediateTreasuryBondIndex NO
-2.03 13-01 FNCMX 102.52 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
-2.42 14-01 FDFFX 33.64 Independence NO
-2.51 15-01 FDEQX 36.25 DisciplinedEquity YES
-2.58 16-01 FMAGX 9.38 Magellan NO
-2.87 17-43 FSCSX 18.30 SSoftware&ITServices NO
-2.92 18-04 FCVSX 28.47 ConvertibleSecurities NO
-2.97 19-01 FCNTX 12.45 Contrafund NO
-3.14 20-01 FBGRX 98.14 BlueChipGrowth NO
Last Week
4.01 01-05 FNBGX 17.48 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index YES
-1.38 02-04 FUAMX 12.04 IntermediateTreasuryBondIndex YES
-1.77 03-05 FPHAX 20.87 SPharmaceuticals YES
-4.88 04-06 FHKCX 34.68 ChinaRegion NO
-4.94 05-02 FSAGX 20.79 SGold YES
-6.57 06-05 FSPHX 24.65 SHealthCare YES
-7.85 07-34 FWRLX 9.53 SWireless NO
-8.36 08-06 FSEAX 38.85 EmergingAsia NO
-8.99 09-06 FBIOX 18.13 SBiotechnology NO
-9.65 10-01 FGOVX 11.20 GovernmentIncome YES
-9.90 11-45 FSPTX 16.64 STechnology NO
-9.91 12-04 FPURX 19.62 Puritian NO
-10.02 13-01 FSMEX 50.10 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices YES
-10.28 14-42 FSCSX 16.93 SSoftware&ITServices NO
-10.43 15-03 FDCPX 68.15 SComputers NO
-10.54 16-14 FTRNX 90.00 Trend NO
-10.64 17-02 FFIDX 42.44 Fidelity NO
-10.78 18-05 FLGEX 18.00 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
-10.97 19-03 FCVSX 26.15 ConvertibleSecurities NO
-11.10 20-11 FOCPX 10.58 OTCPortfolio NO

03 April 2020

A good week week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -24.63, -1578, and now -1774 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 00, 05, and now 12.

In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 16% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 12% below its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 26% below its 50 day moving average,
None are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is negative.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.

There are ETFs which go up as the market goes down.
SH is the inverse of SPY and is 11% above its 50 day average.
PSQ is the inverse of QQQ and is 06% above its 50 day average.
RWM is the inverse of IWM and is 21% above its 50 day average.

It sure looks like we are in for some more down markets.
This year DIA (DowJonesIndustrials ETF) is down 22.62%
This year SPY (Standard&Jones 500 ETF) is down 19.45%
This year QQQ (NASDAQ 100 ETF) is down 10.24%
This year PTNQ (QQQ with a built in sell) is down 13.73%. PTNQ switched to 50% T-bills on 3/19. Currently the 200 day moving average is 0.07% above itself 5 days ago. When ths 200 day moving average declines by just 0.08% PTNQ will switch to 100% T-bills. https://www.paceretfs.com/media/trendpilot_tracker.pdf provides the latest information on all 6 Pacer Trentpilot ETFs.

IRA#1
No investments

IRA#2
No investments

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2
weeks).
4.01 01-05 FNBGX 17.48 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index YES
-1.38 02-04 FUAMX 12.04 IntermediateTreasuryBondIndex YES
-1.77 03-05 FPHAX 20.87 SPharmaceuticals YES
-4.88 04-06 FHKCX 34.68 ChinaRegion NO
-4.94 05-02 FSAGX 20.79 SGold YES
-6.57 06-05 FSPHX 24.65 SHealthCare YES
-7.85 07-34 FWRLX 9.53 SWireless NO
-8.36 08-06 FSEAX 38.85 EmergingAsia NO
-8.99 09-06 FBIOX 18.13 SBiotechnology NO
-9.65 10-01 FGOVX 11.20 GovernmentIncome YES
-9.90 11-45 FSPTX 16.64 STechnology NO
-9.91 12-04 FPURX 19.62 Puritian NO
-10.02 13-01 FSMEX 50.10 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices YES
-10.28 14-42 FSCSX 16.93 SSoftware&ITServices NO
-10.43 15-03 FDCPX 68.15 SComputers NO
-10.54 16-14 FTRNX 90.00 Trend NO
-10.64 17-02 FFIDX 42.44 Fidelity NO
-10.78 18-05 FLGEX 18.00 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
-10.97 19-03 FCVSX 26.15 ConvertibleSecurities NO
-11.10 20-11 FOCPX 10.58 OTCPortfolio NO
Last Week
3.57 01-04 FNBGX 17.37 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index YES
-1.78 02-03 FUAMX 12.00 IntermediateTreasuryBondIndex YES
-4.71 03-05 FHKCX 34.83 ChinaRegion NO
-5.30 04-04 FPHAX 20.14 SPharmaceuticals NO
-6.55 05-05 FSEAX 39.79 EmergingAsia NO
-6.92 06-01 FSAGX 20.41 SGold YES
-7.07 07-33 FWRLX 9.65 SWireless NO
-7.29 08-44 FSPTX 17.21 STechnology NO
-7.46 09-04 FSPHX 24.50 SHealthCare NO
-7.73 10-02 FCVSX 27.26 ConvertibleSecurities NO
-7.81 11-41 FSCSX 17.49 SSoftware&ITServices NO
-8.48 12-02 FDCPX 70.02 SComputers NO
-8.57 13-13 FTRNX 92.50 Trend NO
-8.66 14-05 FBIOX 18.28 SBiotechnology NO
-9.38 15-03 FPURX 19.84 Puritian NO
-9.75 16-01 FSHCX 86.69 SHealthCareServices NO
-9.86 17-10 FOCPX 10.79 OTCPortfolio NO
-9.94 18-01 FFIDX 43.01 Fidelity NO
-10.10 19-04 FLGEX 18.24 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
-10.16 20-01 FPBFX 28.52 PacificBasin NO

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(23Mar20) from STechnology(FSPTX)(18Feb20)
Nov19 1m+6% 3m-0% 6m+23% 12m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(23Mar20) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(18Feb20)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SHealthCareServices(09Dec19)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SComputers(16Dec19)
20% – Cash(02Mar20) from STechnology(21Jan20)
20% – Cash(02Mar20) from SWireless(21Oct19)
Nov19 1m+1% 3m+1% 6m+8% 12m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%

27 March 2020

A good week week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -1345, -2463, and now -1578 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 00, 00, and now 05.

In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 16% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 12% below its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 24% below its 50 day moving average,
None are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is negative.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.

There are ETFs which go up as the market goes down.
SH is the inverse of SPY and is 11% above its 50 day average.
PSQ is the inverse of QQQ and is 07% above its 50 day average.
RWM is the inverse of IWM and is 17% above its 50 day average.

Since the start of the year, I have been investing in the top 5 Fidelity funds based on their three months gain. Fidelity updates the three month gain at about the 8th of the month. Using the numbers they have published this year, the reports indicate a return of -2.48% in January and +0.01% in February. These returns are not as good as they had been in the final months of 2019. I started to invest in these funds as soon as the monthly reports were available. In January my return on the 5 funds I purchased was -2.47% and in February was -0.43%. Currently I am invested in FNBGX – Long-Term Treasury Bond Index, FUAMX – Intermediate Treasury Bond Index, FCBFX – Corporate Bond Fund, FGOVX – Government Income, and FGBFX – Global Credit, I skipped the foreign funds which charge a fee if sold within 90 days and the tax free funds since my investments are in an IRA.

IRA#1
No investments

IRA#2
No investments

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
3.57 01-04 FNBGX 17.37 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index YES
-1.78 02-03 FUAMX 12.00 IntermediateTreasuryBondIndex YES
-4.71 03-05 FHKCX 34.83 ChinaRegion NO
-5.30 04-04 FPHAX 20.14 SPharmaceuticals NO
-6.55 05-05 FSEAX 39.79 EmergingAsia NO
-6.92 06-01 FSAGX 20.41 SGold YES
-7.07 07-33 FWRLX 9.65 SWireless NO
-7.29 08-44 FSPTX 17.21 STechnology NO
-7.46 09-04 FSPHX 24.50 SHealthCare NO
-7.73 10-02 FCVSX 27.26 ConvertibleSecurities NO
-7.81 11-41 FSCSX 17.49 SSoftware&ITServices NO
-8.48 12-02 FDCPX 70.02 SComputers NO
-8.57 13-13 FTRNX 92.50 Trend NO
-8.66 14-05 FBIOX 18.28 SBiotechnology NO
-9.38 15-03 FPURX 19.84 Puritian NO
-9.75 16-01 FSHCX 86.69 SHealthCareServices NO
-9.86 17-10 FOCPX 10.79 OTCPortfolio NO
-9.94 18-01 FFIDX 43.01 Fidelity NO
-10.10 19-04 FLGEX 18.24 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
-10.16 20-01 FPBFX 28.52 PacificBasin NO
Last Week
-1.25 01-03 FNBGX 16.53 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index NO
-3.26 02-02 FUAMX 11.83 IntermediateTreasuryBondIndex NO
-10.68 03-04 FHKCX 32.73 ChinaRegion NO
-12.43 04-01 FGOVX 10.97 GovernmentIncome NO
-12.88 05-03 FPHAX 18.58 SPharmaceuticals NO
-13.89 06-01 FIGRX 36.36 InternationalDiscovery NO
-14.15 07-04 FSEAX 36.68 EmergingAsia NO
-15.38 08-32 FWRLX 8.82 SWireless NO
-15.52 09-01 FCVSX 25.06 ConvertibleSecurities NO
-15.69 10-01 FBIOX 16.95 SBiotechnology NO
-16.10 11-02 FPURX 18.46 Puritian NO
-16.13 12-43 FSPTX 15.63 STechnology NO
-16.43 13-40 FSCSX 15.92 SSoftware&ITServices NO
-16.85 14-03 FSPHX 22.10 SHealthCare NO
-17.55 15-09 FOCPX 9.92 OTCPortfolio NO
-17.78 16-01 FDCPX 63.18 SComputers NO
-17.86 17-12 FTRNX 83.47 Trend NO
-18.04 18-01 FCNTX 10.66 Contrafund NO
-18.10 19-01 FPBFX 26.14 PacificBasin NO
-18.47 20-03 FLGEX 16.63 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO

20 March 2020

Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -319, -1345, and now -2463 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 00, 00, and now 00.

In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 26% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 21% below its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 34% below its 50 day moving average,
None are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is negative.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.

There are ETFs which go up as the market goes down.
SH is the inverse of SPY and is 27% above its 50 day average.
PSQ is the inverse of QQQ and is 19% above its 50 day average.
RWM is the inverse of IWM and is 37% above its 50 day average.

Another bad week, the numbers are even more negative. I think these are the worst numbers I’ve never seen.
If you are not listening to Macro Voices you are missing too much – macrovoices.com . You can even hear it of youtube. The current interview is with Jim Bianco, recorded on 18Mar. It really explains the current market actions and the virus impact. The date for the market bottoms now is 31May/01June.

IRA#1
STechnology has a price of 15.63, a sell price 21.22, a rank of 12, and is a sell.

IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 9.32, a sell price 12.51, a rank of 54, and is a sell.

IRA#1 STechnology and IRA#2 Semiconductors finally can be sold since I’ve owned it 30 days.

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Sell STechnology
IRA #2 – Sell SSemiconductors

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
-1.25 01-03 FNBGX 16.53 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index NO
-3.26 02-02 FUAMX 11.83 IntermediateTreasuryBondIndex NO
-10.68 03-04 FHKCX 32.73 ChinaRegion NO
-12.43 04-01 FGOVX 10.97 GovernmentIncome NO
-12.88 05-03 FPHAX 18.58 SPharmaceuticals NO
-13.89 06-01 FIGRX 36.36 InternationalDiscovery NO
-14.15 07-04 FSEAX 36.68 EmergingAsia NO
-15.38 08-32 FWRLX 8.82 SWireless NO
-15.52 09-01 FCVSX 25.06 ConvertibleSecurities NO
-15.69 10-01 FBIOX 16.95 SBiotechnology NO
-16.10 11-02 FPURX 18.46 Puritian NO
-16.13 12-43 FSPTX 15.63 STechnology NO
-16.43 13-40 FSCSX 15.92 SSoftware&ITServices NO
-16.85 14-03 FSPHX 22.10 SHealthCare NO
-17.55 15-09 FOCPX 9.92 OTCPortfolio NO
-17.78 16-01 FDCPX 63.18 SComputers NO
-17.86 17-12 FTRNX 83.47 Trend NO
-18.04 18-01 FCNTX 10.66 Contrafund NO
-18.10 19-01 FPBFX 26.14 PacificBasin NO
-18.47 20-03 FLGEX 16.63 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
Last Week
-1.73 01-03 FHKCX 36.21 ChinaRegion NO
-2.10 02-02 FSHCX 95.57 SHealthCareServices NO
-2.46 03-42 FSPTX 18.33 STechnology NO
-3.59 04-03 FSEAX 41.50 EmergingAsia NO
-4.01 05-02 FPHAX 20.61 SPharmaceuticals NO
-4.31 06-02 FNBGX 16.03 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index NO
-4.57 07-01 FUAMX 11.69 IntermediateTreasuryBondIndex NO
-5.23 08-39 FSCSX 18.21 SSoftware&ITServices NO
-5.50 09-11 FTRNX 96.93 Trend NO
-5.71 10-02 FFIDX 45.71 Fidelity NO
-6.14 11-02 FLGEX 19.33 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
-6.45 12-18 FOCPX 11.36 OTCPortfolio NO
-6.47 13-02 FSPHX 25.08 SHealthCare NO
-6.57 14-01 FDFFX 32.99 Independence NO
-6.63 15-01 FMAGX 9.21 Magellan NO
-6.88 16-01 FPURX 20.66 Puritian NO
-6.94 17-01 FTQGX 23.24 FocusedStock NO
-7.02 18-31 FWRLX 9.77 SWireless NO
-7.56 19-13 FNCMX 98.92 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
-7.66 20-01 FBSOX 67.57 SITServices NO