Author: Flynn

We are in the Sell in May and Go Away time of year. I listen to the Elliot Wave podcast and it says the market will fall by 50%. The GaryK podcast says the market shows signs of being at a peak but could continue to show those signs for a long time. The Dorsey Wright podcast says the market is still in an uptrend. I do not have a clue which way the market is going, but statistically the May through October is the time the market goes nowhere.
Doug Fabian published a weekly podcast and articles on investing. In his latest podcast, he points out there over 100 ETFs which invest in China. China has been his number invest suggestion lately.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 24.01, a sell price 22.81, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 240.31 a sell price 229.81, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 85.74, a sell price 81.45, a rank of 10, and is a Hold.
SRetailing has a price of 94.67, a sell price 91.67, a rank of 26, and is a Sell.
ChinaRegion has a price of 39.07, a sell price 37.12, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 262.24, a sell price TBD, a rank of 02, and is a Buy.
SRetailing fell out of the top 20 funds and since it is a buy week, I will sell it.
SBiotechnology I sold on 3/30 at 262.05 when it had declined by over 5% in one week. It is obviously a volitle fund, but is currently rated a buy.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell SRetailing and buy SBiotechnology.

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

I suggested to another investor that the 200 day moving average for investments could be obtained from finance.yahoo.com (FYC). The major problem with this approach is that FYC fails to use the close adjusted for distribution. I have written them a couple of times about this without results. Fidelity China Region Fund had a 15% distribution on 12/05/14. So on 05/15/15 FYC reports the 200 day moving average as 33.50 and the 50 day moving average as 35.01. FYC also will let you download the daily prices to a CSV file from the Historical Prices selection. Adding a formula or two to that spread sheets results in a 200 day moving average of 31.49 and a 50 day moving average of 35.01. So much for trusting FYC to calcluate accurate numbers. That is why I keep my own data and my own calculations.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest.
On Thursday, 05/14, the outlook changed to Confirmed Uptrend.
The changes in the current outlook seem to be more frequent than before.
The outlook was last confirmed uptrend on 04/29, changed to uptrend under pressure on 04/30, and changed to market in correction on 5/06.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.77, a sell price 22.58, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 234.05 a sell price 229.81, a rank of 06, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 84.87, a sell price 80.63, a rank of 15, and is a Hold.
SRetailing has a price of 94.77, a sell price 91.67, a rank of 19, and is a Hold.
ChinaRegion has a price of 37.68, a sell price 36.24, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

This week Doug Fabian’s weekly podcast (http://www.fabianwealth.com/weekly-broadcast/radio/) featured several opinions on the future. 1. We are in probably in at least a 10% market correction. Without the Friday up day this would have been a down week. 2. With 93 million adults not in the work force and receiving government benefits, taxes have to go up and by 2017 the deficit starts to explode. 3. Taxes will be going up based on the Simpson-Bowles “fix the debt plan” published in 2013. One of the items mentioned was that I’ve not heard before is that benefits are taken away based on assets. 1.2 Trillion dollars in tax deductions (real estate taxes, mortgage interest deductions, etc.) have to be cut. Income taxes, gas taxes, social security taxes, every tax will be going up. Politicians do not care what you were told or promised – their only goal is to get reelected and they cannot get relected by cutting benefits to the 50% of the population receiving them. Also remember only 50% of the US pay income taxes.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Market in correction” – not a time to invest. In a correction, the proper strategy is to quickly get off margin, raise cash, cut losses fast in your poor performers and let go of other stocks that threaten to wipe away recent gains.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.51, a sell price 22.57, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 234.74 a sell price 229.81, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 83.97, a sell price 80.17, a rank of 15, and is a Hold.
SRetailing has a price of 95.06, a sell price 91.67, a rank of 11, and is a Hold.
ChinaRegion has a price of 37.52, a sell price 36.21, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The Efficient Market Theory indicates you cannot trade the market because there are no inefficiencies. Therefore buy and hold is the best investment method. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-everything-you-know-about-markets-wrong Dr. Eric Prentis presents an interesting rebuttal to that view.
In addition in the podcast (or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XVFQu_0MGc) “Trend following with Michael Covel” episode 39, Dr.Eric Prentis (theastuteinvoestor.net) explains the social phychopaths who run wall street and the US government will continue to spend your tax money because they have just don’t care. One of the most tragic thing is those who are in one group will migrate to the other group over time. The interview was done in 2012.

So the Nasdaq hit a new high last week and this week and then took a big hit on Thursday. I figured that I would have a lot to sell this weekend, but with the up Friday nothing was a sell. Not a good week but not a real bad week. I have been suggesting to my tax clients that they make sure them monitor their 401k because a 6+ year bull market is unusual.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend under pressure” – not a time to invest. The “Confirmed uptrend” IBD reported on 4/23 lasted only a week.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.20, a sell price 22.57, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 231.54 a sell price 229.81, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 84.36, a sell price 80.17, a rank of 06, and is a Hold.
SRetailing has a price of 94.42, a sell price 91.67, a rank of 09, and is a Hold.
ChinaRegion has a price of 38.12, a sell price 36.21, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

Jim Rogers:Tuesday, April 21, 2015
We are all Going to Pay a Terrible Price
We’re going to have economic hard times again. Next time it will be worse because the debt is so much higher and because for the first time in recorded history, all major central banks are printing huge amounts of money. So there’s this gigantic artificial ocean of liquidity that’s going to dry up some day, and when it does, we’re all going to pay a terrible price.

The Nasdaq composite hit a new high today and this week passed the peak it set on March 10, 2000. Of course the stocks on the Nasdaq composite are different, the dollar is 20% lower but it is a new high. In 2000 we were in a .com bubble, and interet rates were higher. Now we are in a biotech bubble – 140 new biotech IPOs in the 3 years for companies with no sales – and interest rates are the lowest in history.
In fact negative interest rates in some foreign countries require you to pay the bank when you save money and when you borrow money the bank has to pay you. The story last week was that Spain and a few other countries are having to reprogram their computers due to negative interst rates. There are about 14T dollors in government bonds in Europe which have a negative yield if held to maturity.

I am a late in documenting this: March update for many of my investments.
In March IRA#1 +5%, IRA#2 +2%, PDP PIE PIZ DWAS +1%, TQQQ -13%, TQQQ/SQQQ -13%, Power4 +1%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 +18%, IRS#2 +6%, PDPetc +3%, TQQQ -22%, TQQQ/SQQQ -24%, Power4 +3%.
January portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – Sold SBiotechnology on 03/30.
IRA#2 – Sold SBiotechnology on 03/30.
PDP PIE PIX DWAS – None.
TQQQ – Sold 50% TQQQ on 03/09, sold remaining TQQQ on 03/10, purchased TQQQ on 03/23, sold half TQQQ on 03/26, sold remaining TQQQ on 03/27.
TQQQ/SQQQ – Sold TQQQ on 03/09, purchased TQQQ on 3/23, sold TQQQ on 03/26.
Power4 – Purchased PFI on 03/23, sold PTH on 03/26.
Details on the management of these portfolios can be found at https://www.flynndj.com/my-iras/5-additional-information-2/ and https://www.flynndj.com/7-etf-investment-study/. Both URLs need updating to point out I only buy when IBD TBP CO is “Confirmed Uptrend.”

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” -time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.76, a sell price 22.57, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 241.91 a sell price 229.81, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 83.30, a sell price 80.17, a rank of 24, and is a Hold untill it declines more or I need to buy something better.
SRetailing has a price of 96.49, a sell price 91.67, a rank of 11, and is a Hold.
ChinaRegion has a price of 38.15, a sell price TBD, a rank of 01. and is a Buy.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Invest 100% in ChinaRegion
IRA #2 – Invest 20% in ChinaRegion

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

At times I suggest investors who would like to start investing purchase SPY. SPY is an ETF which follows the S&P500 index by investing in each of the 500 stocks in the same ratio they are in the index. It the last year it is up 11%. If you had followed a method of staying invested in SPY as long as it was above its 200 day average, you would have been out about a week in October with minimum impact. The reason I suggest selling when the price falls below the 200 day average is because you never know if it is the start of another 2007/8 60% drop – which would not be fun. Fidelity has a fund, FUSEX, which does the same thing, but since it is a mutual fund instead of an exchange traded fund, it has greater fees, cannot be sold during the day, cannot have a stop loss, and may have of Fidelity’s dumb short term trading fees if you sell it too soon.

One of the most interesting movers in Fidelity funds is China Region. It has been in the top 20 of my funds list for 3 weeks and is now number 1 and has been up 17% over the last month. It sure looks like a bubble.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – NOT a time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.48, a sell price 22.49, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 238.70 a sell price 228.67, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 83.66, a sell price 80.17, a rank of 11, and is a Hold.
SRetailing has a price of 93.06, a sell price 90.65, a rank of 16, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

I was looking for some more iTunes radio shows and stumbled across Trend Following with Michael Coval. I started listening to all of them – only 300 or more to go – and came accross number 17 – interview with James Rohrbach. He has been of the top market timers for decades. He does not reveal exactly the method he uses, but suggests you could follow stocks with a 15-30 cross over. He is talking about using a 15 day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) relative to a 30 day EMA. Selling when the 15 day goes lower than the 30 day and vice versa. A 15 day calculation id EMA(0) = P*a + EMA(-1)*(1-a) where P is the current price, a is the smoothing factor ( a = 2/(1+N) ), and where N is the number of days The same calculation is used for the 30 day EMA using an N of 30. I have been using an EMA since the start of my investing. In my case I calculate an a of 2/(1+39) or .05 and then divide the current price by the EMA to get the deviation. Trend Following with Michael Coval is generally interview with successful traders and is quite interesting.  

Again this week a fedhead came out on Friday and said we should not raise interest rates for at lease a year and the market responded. We are still being controlled by the federal reserve board. So if the previous  reactions to fedhead talks continue, the market should be up this coming week.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – NOT a time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.67, a sell price 22.49, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 240.71 a sell price 228.67, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 84.39, a sell price 80.17, a rank of 13, and is a Hold.
SRetailing has a price of 95.42, a sell price 90.65, a rank of 10, and is a Hold.
So the numbers bounced all over the place due to distributions of 1.3% to 5.5%.
I have my distributions taken and not reivested. By the time a fund has a distribution I may no longer want to buy it.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

Not a very good week. Doug Fabian on his podcast last week talked about all the market manipulation by the central banks. Last Friday the head of the US Federal Resrve indicated maybe interest rates would not be raised soon. The head of the China federal bank indicated they should reduce interest rates. The Japanese federal bank is buying bonds and stocks. All in an attempt to keep the market up. It worked on Monday with the DJIA going up 1.6% and the S&P500 and Nasdaq going up about 1.4%. Then for the rest of the week the market bounced around and ended up with about 0.5% gain for the week.
I was talking with an energy trader from Houstin this week. She feels oil has further to fall. She also was considering shorting the DJIA. I suggested with the market making moves every time a centeral banker opens his mouth it was a little risky.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – NOT a time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.66, a sell price 23.19, a rank of 07, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 575.06 a sell price 239.25, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 86.82, a sell price 85.54, a rank of 16, and is a Hold.
SRetailing has a price of 95.31, a sell price 91.31, a rank of 08, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

It was not a good week. SBotechnology fell to below its sell mark. I do not have a clue if next week is up or down but with a 6 year bull market, I am sure we close to the end. In his evening radio show Gary Kaltbaum, garyk.com, always mentions the biotech stock which have billion dollar market capitalization with NO sales. True bubble activity.
I do not have the time to go into details of each trade in the my various accounts, but the end of Feb results for 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months are:
IRA #1 5%, 15%, 11%, 14%
IRA #2 5%, 5%, 4%, 0%
PDP& 3%, 1%, -1%, -3%
TNorm 7%,-19%, -3%, -1%
TShor 8%,-24%, -6%,-17%
Powr4 2%, 0%, NA, NA
Details on how each of these manage can be found on my web site flynndj.com.
I will try to go into greater details after this insane tax season ends.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – NOT a time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.82, a sell price 23.19, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 256.70, a sell price 259.06 a rank of 01, and is a Sell.
SHealthCare has a price of 244.22 a sell price 239.25, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 87.72, a sell price 85.54, a rank of 09, and is a Hold.
SRetailing has a price of 94.81, a sell price 91.31, a rank of 08, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Sell SBiotechnology
IRA #2 – Sell SBiotechnology

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

Really an unbelievable up week.
Chuck Jafee’s show MoneyLive on 20Mar15 featured Brian Frank manager the Frank Funds. FRNKX is a value oriented fund which goes to cash when there are not a lot of value stocks due to the current up market. Currently his fund has just crossed the 40% cash mark because the market is too high.
Investors’s Edge nightly radio on 20Mar15 had an interview with Jim Rohrback of investment-models.com. His mechanical system says we are in a bear market and he is out of the market. Send an email to Jim@rixindex.com and he will send you a copy of his latest email.
Gark Kaltbaum on Investor’s Edge indicates the trend is up, but we are in a biotech bubble. Each night he comments on several of the new biotech stocks which have NO sales, have stock prices going up, and are valued at more than a billion dollars.

I am a little behind in reporting my gains/losses but I blame that on my job. New software (which mostly works), new tax rules, fewer employees, and more work to do has resulted in a 70+ hour work week.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Resumes” – time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 24.41, a sell price 23.19, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 272.69, a sell price 259.06 a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 251.84 a sell price 239.25, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 90.04, a sell price 85.54, a rank of 07, and is a Hold.
SRetailing has a price of 96.12, a sell price 91.31, a rank of 10, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested