Author: Flynn

So I spend a lot to time explaining the etfdb.com free tools tab and ended up deleting my text. That explaination will have to wait until the next fund buy date. Take a look at that free tool and see how many ETFs can match the same objective as your favorate fund. ETFs can be sold at any time, have lower management fees, and are not subject to stupid rules like Fidelity’s hold for 30 day hold rule.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – Not a Time to invest.

My current investments:
IRA#1
SBiotechnology has a price of 278.73, a sell price 264.79, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
IRA#2
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 24.92, a sell price 23.67, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 245.85 a sell price 234.54, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
SmallCapGrowth has a price of 21.20, a sell price 20.14, a rank of 06, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None.
IRA #2 – None.

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

Returns for the month of June were bad.
In June IRA#1 -5%, IRA#2 -3%, PDP PIE PIZ DWAS -1%, TQQQ 0%, TQQQ/SQQQ 0%, Power4 -0%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 -5%, IRS#2 +0%, PDPetc -3%, TQQQ -8%, TQQQ/SQQQ -14%, Power4 -1%.
May portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – Sold China Region on 06/22.
IRA#2 – Sold China Reqion on 06/22, sold SElectronics on 06/29.
PDP PIE PIX DWAS – Sold PIZ and PIE on 06/05.
TQQQ – None.
TQQQ/SQQQ – Purchased 2QQQ on 05/07, sold SQQQ on 05/18.
Power4 – None.
Starting 01Jul, I am changing my TQQQ to just QQQ and investing exactly the way IBD instructs. I am changing the TQQQ/SQQQ to just investing in SPY (S&P500 – capitalization weighted) and RSP (S&P500 – equal weighted).

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – Not a Time to invest. Friday’s market changed the Market Pulse and now it is not a time to buy. The Market Pulse of Comfirmend Uptrend lasted only a total of 6 business days. Currently there has been 8 distribution days on the S&P 500 and 4 on the Nasdaq.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 24.45, a sell price 23.65, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 240.06 a sell price 234.54, a rank of 08, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 277.72, a sell price 280.64, a rank of 01, and is a Sell for IRA#2. However it has been held for only one week in IRA#1 and is a hold until it meets Fidelity’s stupid rule of hold for 30 days.
SmallCapGrowth has a price of 20.89, a sell price 19.85, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None.
IRA #2 – Sell SBiotechnology.

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

Correction – Since my IRA#1 is invested in only one fund, currently CashReserves, it is going to invest in the best fund, SBiotechnology, rather than in SmallCapGrowth.
Since IRA#2 is invested in five funds, and currently has an investment in SBiotechnology, it is going to invest in SmallCapGrowth.

 

Receptos, Inc. (RCPT) is a biotech stock with total revenue of about 5M none from sales. It went public about 2 years ago at a price of 15. It closed this week after receiving a buyout offer which created a 15% increase to 229. At that price it has a total market value of 7B+. In it’s 2+ years it has not had any product sales. Anyone see a biotech stock bubble here? There are 100+ biotech companies with no earnings. This activity looks exactly like 1999 when the bubble was in any stock ending in .com . Enjoy the gain, but be ready to sell when the investment starts to go down. From the end of 1999 to the summer of 2002 the NASDAQ Composite declined 78%.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed uptrend” – Time to invest. Thursday’s market changed the Market Pulse and now it is time to buy.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 24.89, a sell price 23.65, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 240.22 a sell price 246.88, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 274.03, a sell price 295.41, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SmallCapGrowth has a price of 21.31, a sell price TBD, a rank of 04, and is a Buy. SmallCapGrowth is another of those funds which has a short term redemption fee of 1.5% if sold within 90 days.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Invest 100% in SmallCapGrowth
IRA #2 – Invest 20% in SmallCapGrowth

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

A very interesting discussion on the current Federal Reserve policy, which is been copied for countries all over the world, is featured in http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000394325. The discussion points out that with the market supply and demand policy being controlled by governments, the value of all investments is invalid. It also suggest we are borrowing from the future by moving future demand to today. So we have a very weak recovery, being supported by future demand migration, with unreliable investment prices. Not a good senario.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend under pressure” – Not a time to invest. The S&P500 has a distribtion count of 5 and the Nasdaq has a distribution count of 4. The count is improving because previous distribution days are getting too old.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 24.37, a sell price 23.15, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 240.22 a sell price 229.81, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 274.03, a sell price 260.33, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

Doug Fabian’s 10 Strategies for Retirees to Lower Taxes and Create Income is a presentation available at http://www.fabianwealth.com/investor-education/teleseminar/. It may contain a strategy you can use.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend under pressure” – Not a time to invest. The S&P500 has a distribution count of 7 and the Nasdaq has a distribution count of 5. Much to my surprise, the count declined rather than increase for each index on Monday, the worst down day this year. Distribution days are added only when the volume increases on a down day and removed after 25 sessions due to lack of relevance.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.92, a sell price 22.87, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 238.23 a sell price 229.81, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 270.31, a sell price 259.98, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

Returns for the month of May were ok.
In May IRA#1 +1.4%, IRA#2 +4%, PDP PIE PIZ DWAS +1%, TQQQ 0%, TQQQ/SQQQ -7%, Power4 +2%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 +6%, IRS#2 +5%, PDPetc -0%, TQQQ -20%, TQQQ/SQQQ -25%, Power4 +0%.
May portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – None.
IRA#2 – Sold SRetailing and Purchased SBiotechnology on 05/26.
PDP PIE PIX DWAS – None.
TQQQ – None.
TQQQ/SQQQ – Purchased 2QQQ on 05/07, sold SQQQ on 05/18.
Power4 – None.
Starting 01Jul, I am changing my TQQQ to just QQQ and investing exactly the way IBD instructs. I am changing the TQQQ/SQQQ to just investing in SPY (S&P500 – capitalization weighted) and RSP (S&P500 – equal weighted). I will update my web site soon.

Last week my loss limitation rules caused me to sell China Region. It recovered slightly and then declined a little more during the week and is now slightly lower than last week.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend under pressure” – Not a time to invest. The S&P500 has a distribution count of 8 and the Nasdaq has a distribution count of 6. It is too risky time for me to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 24.07, a sell price 22.87, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 240.29 a sell price 229.81, a rank of 06, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 83.34, a sell price 83.69, a rank of 58, and is a Sell.
SBiotechnology has a price of 271.55, a sell price 259.98, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell SElectronics

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

The Follow The Money weekly podcast on 19May featured Mebane T Fabar of Cambria Investment Management. He discussed a research report he wrote a couple of year ago titled Relative Strength Strategies for Investing. He goes back to the 20s using the momentum of various industry groups which beats buy and hold by about 70%. His study is similar to the Power 4 investing based on DWA momentum ETFs I mentioned in my note some time ago. The major difference is that Fabar uses the industry groups ETFs. and suggests the top 1, 2, or 3 ETFs. Fabar also has an ETF, GMOM, which invests in 1/3 of the top 50 ETFs based on momentun and trend. It is not a year old, but might be good to follow. 
Another interesting podcast is from Wall Street Unplugged and on June 10, episode 318, featured “What the End of the World Looks Like” in an interview with Bill Bonner. You can almost see it starting in Greece where over the lat 4 days 3 billion Euros or about 3.5 billion dollars have been removed by depositors in Greek banks. It is an interesting, depressing interview.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest. However both the Nasdaq and S&P500 indexes have had added another two distribution days for a count of 6 each. I’ve seen the number get as high as 7 before the trend change IBD changes the trend. It is too risky time for me to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.96, a sell price 22.81, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 241.15 a sell price 229.81, a rank of 06, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 86.77, a sell price 83.69, a rank of 08, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 273.66, a sell price 259.98, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
ChinaRegion has a price of 36.89, a sell price 37.12, a rank of 07, and is a Sell.
Fidelity has a 1.5% redemption fee on ChinaRegion for any shares held for less than 90 days. I consider this another greedy fee Fidelity has on mutual funds which does not exist on ETFs. As of this weekend, FHKCX is down 3.72% since I purchased it. An ETF, CNTX, which China investments is up 16.87% over the same period. Both would be a sell, but the ETF does not have the greedy Fidelity redemption fee. FHKCX lost 1.9% on Friday, so even waiting a day or two to sell it could cost me more. It could also turn around and go gack up. I do not have a clue.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Sell China Region
IRA #2 – Sell China Region

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

Not an exciting week. Some days up, some days down. The overall trend seems to be trendless. One of the opinions on Marketwatch.com today is “These diverging trends point to a market correction, says UBS’. The statistics I mentioned last week on stocks above their 50 day moving average are almost exactly the same. Another interesting article on Marketwatch.com is “The Fed accidentally created the most resilient bull market ever.” The Fed meets again this coming week.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest. However both the Nasdaq and S&P500 indexes have had 4 distribution days each – no change from last week.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.86, a sell price 22.81, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 237.13 a sell price 229.81, a rank of 07, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 85.75, a sell price 83.69, a rank of 09, and is a Hold.
ChinaRegion has a price of 38.59, a sell price 37.12, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 262.36, a sell price 251.85, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

Currently the Dow Jones Industrial Average is below its 50 day moving average. Same for the S&P500. The Nasdaq is above. Above the 50 day moving average is good, below is not so good. Above the 200 day moving average is ok, below is bad. TLT which is an ETF of the US Treasury 20+ year bond is below its 200 day average. On etfscreen.com, the 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 7th, 9th, and 10th best performing ETFs over the last week have been BEAR US Treasury funds, all up more that 10% for the week. Not a time to be invested in bonds.
38% of the stocks on the New York Stock Exchange are above their 50 day moving average and only 52% are above their 200 day moving average – not a good sign.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse (new name for Current Outlook) is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest. However both the Nasdaq and S&P500 indexes have had 4 distribution days each. The last time the relative numbers were 7 and 6 the Market Pulse moved to “Uptrend under Pressure”, and then a week later at 7 & 7 the Market Pulse changed to “Market in Correction”.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.84, a sell price 22.81, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 238.79 a sell price 229.81, a rank of 06, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 86.60, a sell price 83.69, a rank of 08, and is a Hold.
ChinaRegion has a price of 38.33, a sell price 37.12, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 265.10, a sell price 251.85, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

Frequently the 50 day moving average of a stock or index is used to decide we are in an up trend. Currently only 43% of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange are above their 50 day moving average. On the Nasdaq the number is 48%. The S&P 500 index is 1% above its 50 day moving average, and the Nasdaq index is 2% above. Both indexes are capital weighted averages so the larger capitalized stocks, Apple, Microsoft, Exxon, etc., have a greater impact than the smaller companies. Comparing the index to the average stocks indicate the larger companies are doing better than the average company. Generally that is not a good sign.

I am a late in documenting this: April update for many of my investments.
In April IRA#1 -1.4%, IRA#2 -1%, PDP PIE PIZ DWAS -2%, TQQQ -8%, TQQQ/SQQQ -7%, Power4 -3%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 +10%, IRS#2 +5%, PDPetc +2%, TQQQ -14%, TQQQ/SQQQ -13%, Power4 -0%.
April portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – Purchased China Region on 04/27.
IRA#2 – Purchased China Region on 04/27.
PDP PIE PIX DWAS – Sold PDP on 04/27, purchaed PIE on 04/27.
TQQQ – Purchased TQQQ on 04/24, sold TQQQ on 04/30.
TQQQ/SQQQ – Purchased TQQQ on 04/24, sold TQQQ on 04/30.
Power4 – Purchased PTH on 04/27, sold PFU on 04/27, purchased PXI on 04/27.
I’ve decided I’ve lost enough on my TQQQ and TQQQ/SQQQ portfolios. It is the only portfolios I have which lost money over the last 12 months. I plan to change the criteria I use for investing. I’m not sure what I plan to do but will update my web site when I figure it out.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.94, a sell price 22.81, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 241.32 a sell price 229.81, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 88.09, a sell price 83.69, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
ChinaRegion has a price of 38.55, a sell price 37.12, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 264.56, a sell price 251.33, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested