Author: Flynn

So the question is, “Why did the head of the Federal Reserve Board have a couple of special meetings with the President?” Listening to the speculation there ware two main theories presented.
1. Saudi Arabia (SA) is so upset with the US that if the US releases the 28 classified pages of the 9/11 report or allows 9/11 victim’s families to sue SA, they will sell all $750B of their US bond holdings and remove any financial deposits in the US causing significant distress in the US financial markets. The speculation is that Bush classified those 28 pages because they showed SA was clearly responsible for 9/11 planning, funding, and execution.
2. Leading indicators indicate the 2nd quarter Gross Domestic Product released in July, will show a negative number and the revisions to previous quarters will show the same. The result is that after the release the criteria for declaring a recession will have been met. No in power political party wants a recession just before elections.

As I have previously mentioned before John Pugliano in his Wealthsteading podcast on 19Mar emphasized using the S&P500 100 day moving average. SPY which is an ETF which matches the S&P500 is at 205.67 and the 100 day moving average 199.47. His indicator would say it is time to remain invested.

Tonight Wall Street Week featured Jeffery Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital. Last month his funds, mostly bond funds, had an inflow of cash of over 1b dollars. He indicated that when economies are slowing down, most stock markets around the world are down, and the US stock market is within a percent or two from its all time high, having gone sidewise for 18 months, it is time to sell.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend under pressure” as of 04/21/16. Not a time to buy.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SGold has a price of 22.69, a sell price of 22.51, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 24.50, a sell price 23.28, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 23.69)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 43.86, a sell price 41.67, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 61.36)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 14.25, a sell price 13.70, a rank of 13, and is a hold. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 56.73)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – No Change
IRA #2 – No Change

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

So my latest investment was in JapanSamllerCompanies and as it turns out the Bank of Japan (BOJ), the federal reserve bank of Japan, also likes Japanese stocks. The BOJ is one the top 10 holders of NKY, the ETF which matches the Nikkei 225 index and thus contains some shares of every stock in the index. The BOJ also owns about 35% of the bonds issued by Japan. Our Federal board owns about 25% of our bonds and an unknown amount of stock – we can’t audit them without a law change. China and other countries are doing the same. So how much of the market gains are just the government buying stock to make investors and voters feel good? If you hold when the market falls, you will lose money, the government will lose money, and maybe taxes will have to go up to recover some of the losses.

Non US investments seem to be doing the best. Perhaps that is because the US Dollar is declining. Over the last 100 trading days, the dollar is down 6% (the ETF is UUP). Seven of the top 20 funds are non US investments. The declining dollar is one of the reasons gold is going up. Gold is doing absolutely great – I do not ever remember seeing a percent deviation of over 40. While that is an indication of how great gold is doing, it is also an indication of how over bought gold is. In the past I felt that when the market went down, gold was a great place to be. I was wrong. When markets go down and investors start selling, they eventually sell everything so please watch your investments carefully

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend under pressure” as of 04/21/16. Not a time to buy.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SGold has a price of 23.69, a sell price of 22.51, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 24.39, a sell price 23.22, a rank of 08, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 23.69)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 41.72, a sell price 40.86, a rank of 21, and is a hold until there is something better to buy. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 61.36)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 14.09, a sell price 13.70, a rank of 07 and is a hold. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 56.73)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – No Change
IRA #2 – No Change

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

This is late because I have out of town. I could not find an Investors Business Daily newspaper this weekend anywhere in Cozumel.
If you have the time, I strongly suggest you listen to www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsido-UDzFw. The show covers a lot of shortcomings government is doing and the potential future financial impact.
Another website to visit is wealthtrack.com and listen to or watch the 01Apr16 show. Mr. LaPerriere feels the stock market will plummet if Trump or Sanders win the presidency. I think the market will plummet regardless of who wins.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend under pressure” as of 04/21/16. Not a time to buy. Perhaps is is time for “sell in May and go away”. May through October, on average, is the worst 6 months of the year. November through April is, on average, the best 6 months of the year. Also to consider is the 4 year cycle. The first year of each presidential 4 year term is, on average, the worst.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SGold has a price of 20.98, a sell price of 19.93, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 24.00, a sell price 23.22, a rank of 17, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 23.69)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 42.65, a sell price 40.86, a rank of 21, and is a hold until there is something better to buy. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 61.36)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price fo 14.40, a sell price 40.86, a rank of 16 and is a hold. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 56.73)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – No Change
IRA #2 – No Change

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

An interesting view of the market is http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Market-Cap-to-GDP . The highest peak was back in 2000, then a lower peak in 2008, and today’s peak is the second highest.
A look at the gaining Fidelity funds indicate emerging markets, Canada, LatinAmerica and Asia countries are going up (or maybe the dollar is going down)?
Two other items – 1. This note is short since I am still working 70+ hour per week. 2. Please watch the funds closely, I am planning to be away from my computer next week – thus no weekly report until I return later in the week.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” as of 04/13/16. Time to buy. So Monday Fidelity published the correct distribution numbers for last Friday. Not many changes but there were some. It would be nice to have Fidelity get it right. This week the Friday distributions were published – they got it right.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SGold has a price of 20.61, a sell price of 19.58, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 24.24, a sell price 23.22, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 23.69)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 42.65, a sell price 40.86, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 61.36)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price fo 14.42, a sell price TBD, a rank of 07 and is a buy. (ETF – SCJ)
The number 4, 5 and 6 funds have not had an improving deviation for the last two weeks. 

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – No Change
IRA #2 – Purchase 20% JapanSmallerCompanies

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 –  100% invested
IRA #2 –  80% invested

Interesting article on the financial education of football players. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-nfl-training-camp-turns-football-players-into-financial-stars-2016-04-06

A classic sign of a bear market is a chart pattern of descending highs. Look at the Nasdaq, S&P500, NYSE or any major index and notice a high was made in about May last year. Then another lower high in December last year. Now the latest high in April. The lows between those highs are also descending. Not a good sign.

In his podcast on 01Apr, Doug Fabian indicated he felt the bull market would continue and he really liked gold. On his daily radio show and podcast Gary Kaultbaum feels the actions of the banking sector are similar to their actions in 2008 where they led the market down. On my list of 130 Fidelity funds, SBanking is 127.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend under presure” as of 04/07/16. Not a time to buy. This week’s Fidelity numbers are slightly questionable. Like too many times in the past, Fidelity’s list of fund distributions contained no current data, and yet the list of daily fund prices indicated 28 funds had distribution. Going into 28 different funds to search for distributions takes too much time. So the numbers are close but next week’s numbers will include the correct distributions. Yes I called Fidelity about this (again, again, etc.).

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SGold has a price of 20.15, a sell price of 19.14, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 24.08, a sell price 23.22, a rank of 06, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 23.69)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 42.67, a sell price 40.86, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 61.36)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – No Change
IRA #2 – No Change

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

Last week I mentioned a podcast by John Publiano where he stressed using the 100 day moving average to measure the market trend. At this time SPY (the S&P500 ETF) is 4.3% above its 100 day moving average, 3.9% above its 200 day moving, and 6.1% above its 50 day moving average. All is looking good.
It is especially helpful that the chair woman of the Federal Reserve Board came out this week and said easy money would continue. There is also an interesting article on how she stopped the market decline in February. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-01/inside-janet-yellens-diary-stunning-discovery-two-phone-calls-saved-world It is interesting how Goldman Sacks former (and maybe current) employees run the federal banks of the western world. Obviously the world bankers are watching the market.
 
IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend ” as of 02/17/16. Time to buy. Except none of the top 20 funds have an improving deviation, one of my requirements to buy, so I am buying nothing.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SGold has a price of 19.07, a sell price of 18.53, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 24.57, a sell price 23.34, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 23.69)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 43.01, a sell price 40.86, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 61.36)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – No Change
IRA #2 – No Change

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 –  100% invested
IRA #2 –  60% invested

John Pugliano has a podcast called Wealthsteading – Wealth Building Principles. His 19Mar podcast presents some moving average analysis of the S&P500. He uses a 100 day moving average to manage his investing. The S&P500 is 2.3% above its 100 day moving average. He also presents the reason he has not invested in anything thinking this is a bear market rally.
I have a portfolio invested in the S&P500. I recently purchased RSP – an equal weighted S&P500 ETF. RSP includes every stock in the S&P500, except each stock only contributes 0.2% The S&P500 is actually a capitalization weighted index. SPY is the ETF which represents the S&P500 index, a capitalization weighted index.. Based on their capitalization, Apple is 3.18% of the index, Microsoft is 2.40%, Exxon is 1.97% and etc. RSP has been doing better than the SPY for several months.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend ” as of 02/17/16. Time to buy. Except none of the top 20 funds have an improving deviation, one of my requirements to buy, so I am buying nothing.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SGold has a price of 18.50, a sell price of 18.53, a rank of 01, and is a Hold until I’ve owned it 39 days and can sell without breaking Fidelity’s dumb rule. (ETF – GLDX – I was stopped out of this ETF)
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 24.07, a sell price 22.87, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 23.41)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 41.56, a sell price 39.48, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 60.99)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – No Change
IRA #2 – No Change

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

Another good week. Obviously it can’t continue, but until it does I plan to remain investing.

Those of you whose accounts I previously managed with a limited trading authorization received a letter this week indicating Fidelity would not allow me to continue to use any limited trading authorization. I mentioned this two weeks ago and sent the account owners an email on it 3 weeks ago. I prefer that you manage your own account, but if you do not have the inclination, time, etc. call or email me.

I made a mistake last week. I put in an order to buy DWTR at market open buying enough shares to fill the Roth IRA account to within $1,000. However the stock opened up 77 cents higher which caused the total cost of the purchase to be greater than the balance of the account. Fidelity called and we were able to transfer the funds required to cover the shortage from another Roth IRA with the same registration. Next time I will try to leave $2000 in cash after the purchase.

One of the good things about ETFs is that you can enter a stop loss order and be sold out before a ETF continues to fall. One of the bad things about ETFs is that you can enter a stop loss order and be sold out on a dip before the ETF reverses and goes up. My gold ETF – GLADX – was sold on a dip on 15Mar. I do plan to buy it back sometime.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend ” as of 02/17/16. Time to buy. IBD reports “Individual investors might want to be ready for either a market pullback or at least a pause.
In the past three years, the Nasdaq has risen five weeks in a row five times. Only twice was there a sixth up-week.”

This week the #2 fund is RealEstateInvestmentPortfolio and I am investing in it.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SGold has a price of 19.50, a sell price of 18.53, a rank of 01, and is a Hold. (ETF – GLDX – I was stopped out of this ETF)
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 24.05, a sell price 22.85, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 23.41)
RealEatatePortfolio has a price of 42.30, a sell price TBD, a rank of 02, and is a buy. (ETF – REZ)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – No Change
IRA #2 – Invest 20% in RealEstateInvestmentPortfolio – FRESX – or a similar performing ETF – REZ.

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

This last week commodity oriented funds and countries which produce commodities seem to gain the most – yes I am repeating myself.
This week only 8 of the 130 stocks I follow are not a buy. It was another good week.

One of the podcasts I’ve started downloading is the Wealth & Purpose Show. It, like many others, has an emphasis on gold and other naturnal resources. On the show presented on the 22th of Febuary, “Silver Shortage Approaching, Metals Mining Sector Explained by Resource Expert Gwen Preston”, Ms. Preston indicate she like gold better than silver but copper and zinc are attractive investments with shortages developing. In addition to most mining stocks (she likes the smaller miners (one or two mines) most), she also likes in uranium which she thinks will be going up for several years due to increasing demand. Her web site is http://www.resourcemaven.ca/.

I have not updated my performance numbers in two months – too busy. The short version is January down, February even, March starting up. I will try to get that done this week.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend ” as of 02/17/16. Time to buy.
This week the #2 fund is Telecom&Utilities and I am investing in it. It is more a yield play but has been going up. About 25% of the fund is invested in AT&T (T) which is yielding 5.2% and T also has been up about 5% over the last month.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SGold has a price of 18.54, a sell price of 17.92, a rank of 01, and is a Hold. (ETF – GLDX – my current stop loss is 21.64)
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 23.77, a sell price TBD, a rank of 02, and is a Buy. (ETF – PUI)
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – No Change
IRA #2 – Invest 20% in Telecom&Utilities – FIUIX – or a similar performing ETF – PUI

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested

I apologize for the shortness of my comments this week. Tax season is just too busy a time.
This last week commodity oriented funds and countries which produce commodities seem to gain the most.
This week only 10 of the 130 stocks I follow are not a buy. It was quite a good week.
While I do not think the bull market is here, even the S&P500 is above its 50 day moving average and crossing its 200 day moving average

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend ” as of 02/17/16. Time to buy.
While I dislike buying a fund which is going up fast (I perfer slow), FSAGX, SGold has been on the top 20 list for 6 weeks and my investment this week.

My current investments:
IRA#1
GovernmentCashReserves
IRA#2
GovernmentCashReserves

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Invest 100% in SGold – FSAGX – or a similar performing ETF – GLDX
IRA #2 – Invest 20% in SGold – FSAGX – or a similar performing ETF – GLDX

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 20% invested