Author: Flynn

I am still surprised by the up market. My only thought is that we have the best market and the world is looking for a place to invest. Each day I receive a market recap email from StockTrader.com – it is free. While the market is up, right now they have no warnings about it.
When you look at our economy we are just lucky the rest of the world is bad. Our statistics sound good until you look at them. This month it was reported that 287k jobs were created – a good number. Except 90% of the new jobs were found by those over 55 (i.e. can’t afford to retire) taking part time and full time jobs. 50% of the jobs created were minimum wage jobs. Not a very dynamic economy.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend”. Time to invest, but I am fully invested in the top 20 funds.

This report is coming out Tuesday since I was out of town over the weekend. If you every get to the Orlando I have an observation. They have parking lots with names. The first one I noticed was called “I-4 East”. A second one was called “535 North”. They do look like they are moving, but perhaps it is just an illusion.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 41.27, a sell price of 39.23, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 131.29)
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 26.37, a sell price 25.05, a rank of 06, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 26.10)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 46.22, a sell price 43.91, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 64.00)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 14.86, a sell price 14.25, a rank of 32, and is a hold for now. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 58.34)
SGold has a price of 27.08, a sell price 26.42, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – GLDX current stoploss 41.58)
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

I sure am surprised by the market action this week. Some analysts indicate it is the resumption of the bull market. It is just one of those times to follow the trend.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend”. Time to invest, but I am fully invested in the top 20 funds.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 41.29, a sell price of 39.23, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 130.13)
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 26.21, a sell price 24.90, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 26.10)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 46.06, a sell price 43.76, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 63.59)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 15.00, a sell price 14.25, a rank of 09, and is a hold. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 57.38)
SGold has a price of 27.81, a sell price 26.42, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – GLDX current stoploss 41.25)
The sell price for Telecom&Utilities was adjusted for a distribution on .115.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

This weekend I was out of town working in Walt Disney World until Monday. One of the reasons WDW seems hotter is that they do not get the breezes we get here in Jupiter, but then the cost of gas is 2.05 and here in Jupiter it is 10% higher. Not sure why that is but for the last 8 years that I have been going to WDW, there has been at least a 10% difference.
One of the major changes this week has been the increase in the price of gold and gold stocks. While I am sure the concern of over the Brexit results caused it to go up quickly and I think due due for a dip. Based on numbers from etfscreen.com, JNUG, a leveraged junior gold miners ETF, was up 27% this week and 667% over the last 12 months. Next time Marty McFly goes back to the future, I hope he brings me the 01Jul17 etfscreen.com report.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse was “Market in Correction” from of 06/29/16 and on 6/30/16 changed to “Uptrend Resumes”. Time to invest, but I am fully invested in the top 20 funds. The reason for the weekly gain may be window dressing for the end of the quarter, normal holiday gains, the Bank of England easing lending requirements, or maybe it was just recovery from the Brexit vote.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 40.28, a sell price of 38.27, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 126.70)
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 26.25, a sell price 24.94, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 25.93)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 45.47, a sell price 43.20, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 62.78)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 14.91, a sell price 14.16, a rank of 09, and is a hold. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 57.38)
SGold has a price of 26.47, a sell price 25.15, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – GLDX current stoploss 38.13)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

Significant this week was the vote by Great Britain to leave the European Union. Sure wish I had purchased some puts on the British Pound or maybe the ETF UVXY (it was up 43% on Friday). For a long time I have felt that the EU is in a recession and I think this vote increases the length or depth of the recession. I can understand that the British had some resentment when the EU told them they had to get rid of their tea pots because the pots used too much energy.

Returns for the month of May were mostly positive.
In May IRA#1 -7%, IRA#2 -1%, PDP PIE PIZ DWAS 2%, QQQ 4%, SPY/RSP 1%, DWTR 1%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 16%, IRS#2 4%, PDPetc 4%, QQQ 5%, SPY/RSP 6%, DWTR 2%.
May portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – Sold FSAGX 5/23, Purchased FSMEX 5/31 – Invested in FSMEX
IRA#2 – Sold FSAGX 5/23, Purchased FSMEX 5/31 – Invested in FIUIX, FJSCX, FRESX, FSMEX, FDRXX
PDP PIE PIX DWAS – None – Invested in PDP, PIE, PIZ
QQQ – None – Invested in QQQ
SPY/RSP – None – Invested in RSP
DWTR – None – Invested in DWTR

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse was “Uptrend under pressure” from of 06/14/16 until 6/22/16. On 06/23/16 it changed to “Uptrend Resumes”. On 06/24/16 it changed back to “Uptrend under pressure” after the Nasdaq lost 4.1%, the S&P500 lost 3.6% and the DJIA lost 3.4%. Not a time to buy. My feeling is that next week the market will bounce up before the decline continues. Doug Casey of Casey Research thinks the next president will have the privile
ge of trying to fix the coming depression.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 38.37, a sell price of 37.29, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 125.91)
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 25.12, a sell price 23.96, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 24.97)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 43.41, a sell price 41.36, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 62.47)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 14.27, a sell price 13.82, a rank of 18, and is a hold. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 57.84)
SGold has a price of 24.59, a sell price 23.36, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – GLDX current stoploss 34.90)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

Martin D Weiss, founder of Weiss Research, sent me a “Money and Markets: Investing Insights” email which laid out some of the challenges the next president will have. 1. U.S. Commercial Real Estate debt has increased so much that the current bubble is higher than the 2007/8 bubble by 17%. 2. U.S Automobile Industry has 31% of the auto borrowers owing more than the auto is worth – a record, and 29% of auto loans are 6 or greater years – a record. 3. Sinking Global Economy reported by the International Monetary fund as “Global Economy Faltering from Too Slow Growth for Too Long.” 4. No More Weapons are available to the Federal Reserve. With the federal funds rate at 1/4% a cut will do little (but they could try negative interest rates – you pay the bank to let keep a bank account) and printing money (qualitative easing) which has run into the law of diminishing returns thus becoming ineffective. Weiss’s advice “Prepare yourself ahead of time for economic disasters in the pipeline.”

Significent next week is the vote by Great Britain to stay or leave the European Union. There are many predictions as to what the market may do as a result of this vote. An interesting article on the EU impact on GB is reported in this article from 9 years ago. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-426827/What-Britain-HADNT-joined-EU.html

Fidelity took their Spartan Funds – generally index funds with low fees – which previously required a higher initial investment, renamed them, and split up the renamed funds into an “investor class” – 2.5k initial investment & management fees of 0.9% – and “premium class” – 10k initial investment and management fees of 0.5% . I think it is an effort by Fidelity to create low cost index funds to beat Vanguard and ETFs in the index fund game. Fidelity funds still retain the short term trading penalty, the buy and sell only at market close limitations, and no stoploss orders – ETFs do not have those restrictions. The big problem I have with most funds is that their prospectus requires them to be fully invested at all times. The S&P500 went down 47% in the 08/09 crash.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend under pressure” as of 06/14/16. Not a time to buy.
Each evening I try to listed to Investors Edge with Gary Kaltbaum. On Tuesday he had an interview with Jim Rohrback whose website is www.investment-models.com. Jim is either always invested or not invested in the market. He uses an evaluation of the NYSE index and the Nasdaq index. In this interview he said his Nasdaq just turned to a sell and the NYSE while negative was not a sell yet. You can get a free copy of his report by sending an email to Jim@rixindex.com requesting a copy. There is an interesting article called “Big Names Bailing” at http://dollarcollapse.com/stock-prices/big-names-bailing/ .

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 38.47, a sell price of 37.29, a rank of 02, and is a buy. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 125.80)
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 25.22, a sell price 23.96, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 24.97)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 43.54, a sell price 41.36, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 62.47)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 14.27, a sell price 13.82, a rank of 27, and is a hold until it becomes a sell or another fund becomes a buy. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 57.84)
SGold has a price of 23.55, a sell price 22.37, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – GLDX current stoploss 34.12)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

Doug Fabian had an interesting podcast. He provided some of the concerns about the market trend and pointed out the market is about the same as it was a year ago, close to an all time high. One of the items presents is the analysis that if stocks are higher or the same, Clinton is the next president. If stocks are down 10% then Trump is the next president. Another subject is the discussion of “bail ins”. That happened a couple of years ago in Crete – any large bank account lost 50% to the bank. It is worth a listen.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed uptrend” as of 05/24/16. Time to buy. The distribution days are climbing for both the Nasdaq and S&P500. Distribution days are down days with increased volume, which are an indication of institutional selling and is a concern.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 39.25, a sell price of 37.29, a rand of 02, and is a buy. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 125.80)
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 25.10, a sell price 23.85, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 24.97)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 42.87, a sell price 40.75, a rank of 12, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 62.47)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 14.54, a sell price 13.82, a rank of 16, and is a hold. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 57.84)
SGold has a price of 23.61, a sell price TBD, a rank of 01, and is a buy. (ETF – GLDX)
So if I had not sold SGold a couple of weeks ago I would be up about 8% from that sell price.
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – invest 20% in SGold.

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

Jim Rogers on why the dollar is the best investment in the world – it takes a little time to load the 2 minute video.
http://jimrogers1.blogspot.com/2016/06/jim-rogers-100-probability-of-us.html

On 05/23 I sold SGold (FSAGX) for a gain of 15.7%. Sort of amazing for a 77 day investment. At the same time I purchased an ETF – GLDX – and sold it 8 days later after it dropped by 7% for a total loss of 7.83%. My error was not buying it again when it SGold was still a buy. However if gold continues up like it did this week, I’ll probably be buying it next weekend.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed uptrend” as of 05/24/16. Time to buy. However the sum of all the mutual fund deviations is down and the first mutual fund which has two weeks in a row of improving deviations is ranked 82 (SHealthCare).

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 38.51, a sell price of 36.58, a rank of 02, and is a buy. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 123.88)
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 25.07, a sell price 23.82, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 24.56)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 42.89, a sell price 40.75, a rank of 09, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 62.47)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 14.55, a sell price 13.82, a rank of 19, and is a hold. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 56.83)
RealEstatePortfolio had a distribution of $0.174.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

 

The podcasts I listen to are mostly cautiously positive. The podcast from Dorsey Wright is concerned that most of the larger capitalization stocks are doing well while the smaller capitalization stocks are not.
Wealthsteading podcast presented a “landmine” portfolio on 25May – investing 30% but being ready for problems.

I was talking with a friend the other day who was concerned about the market. I suggested I did not know if it was going up or down, but figured the probable direction was down. She asked how are you going to protect yourself. I replied “Sell” and from the look on her face, you would have thought I had used one of those less than nice 4 letter words.

Since it is Memorial day when we honor those who died for our great country, I suggest you listen for 13 minutes to John Pugliano’s 29May presentation “Was America ever great?” at http://www.wealthsteading.com/187/. He plays a recording made by a Canadian in 1973 which can also be found at http://america.our.home.power-of-love.net/sinclair.html

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed uptrend” as of 05/24/16. Time to buy.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 37.90, a sell price of TBD, a rand of 02, and is a buy. (ETF – IHI)
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 24.62, a sell price 23.39, a rank of 07, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 24.13)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 42.75, a sell price 41.67, a rank of 14, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 62.47)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 14.28, a sell price 13.70, a rank of 42, and is a hold until there is something better to buy and I am fully invested. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 56.73)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Invest 100% in SMedicalEquipment&Systems
IRA #2 – Invest 20% in SMedicalEquipment&Systems

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

Dollarcollapse.com on their web site had an interesting presentation on May 12, called “Chaos Spreads to US Retailers and Italian Banks.” He discuses the fact that the US government which is really being run and screwed up by the military industrial complex, wall street banks, and career regulators who actually work for the companies they are supposed to be regulating. Since we have borrowed more than we can ever pay off, as has the rest of the world, we will have to have an epic massive currency devaluation. Therefore it does not matter who becomes president – the outsider or the wall street representative. Since he feels chaos is coming, he suggests precious metals, farmland, carefully selected real estate, and possibly energy as investments.
John Burbank, founder of Passport Capital, manages about 4.1B of investments. He was interviewed on Wall Street Week tonight. He has three risks for investments in the rest of the year: 1. The US in entering a recession with a 66% percent probability, 2. China has to recapitalize its banks which have significant non performing loans, 3. Donald Trump will win the election which is feared by foreigners and thus may result in a disruption the markets. He feels dividend paying, consumer staples, and gold stocks offer the best investments now.

Next weekend I will be out of town until later Sunday and will update this as soon as I can. The following day, Monday, is Memorial day and the market is closed.

As I have previously mentioned before John Pugliano in his Wealthsteading podcast on 19Mar emphasized using the S&P500 100 day moveing average. SPY which is an ETF which matches the S&P500 is at 205.49 and the 100 day moving average 199.08. His indicator would say it is time to remain invested.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend under pressure” as of 04/21/16. Not a time to buy.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SGold has a price of 21.89, a sell price of 22.13, a rank of 01, and is a Sell.
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 24.33, a sell price 23.35, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 24.13)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 42.01, a sell price 41.67, a rank of 11, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 62.47)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 14.21, a sell price 13.70, a rank of 17, and is a hold. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 56.73)
I do not have a clue if SGold is going to go up next week, down, or stay the same. Howevery it has lost enough from its previous weekly close I am selling. I can always invest in it again if it looks like a buy.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Sell SGold
IRA #2 – Sell SGold

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

Returns for the month of May were mostly positive. I haven’t reported these numbers for a month or two because for most of January and February I was not invested.
The S&P500 was up 0.27% in May and up 6.45% over the last 3 months.
In May IRA#1 24%, IRA#2 3%, PDP PIE PIZ DWAS -1%, QQQ -4%, SPY/RSP 1%, DWTR 0%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 24%, IRS#2 5%, PDPetc 3%, QQQ 1%, SPY/RSP 5%, DWTR 1%.
May portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – None – Invested in FSAGX
IRA#2 – Purchased FSJCX 04/18 – Invested in FIUIX, FJSCX, FRESX, FSAGX, FDRXX
PDP PIE PIX DWAS – None – Invested in PDP, PIE, PIZ
QQQ – None – Invested in QQQ
SPY/RSP – None – Invested in RSP
DWTR – None – Invested in DWTR

Last week I mention Jeffery Gundlach who was the guest on Wall Street Week. On 13May he said, “I’m sticking with my ‘2% upside and 20% downside’ prediction on U.S. stocks. It’s working. I can see it going to 1,600.” The whole interview report is on thinkadvisor.com. The S&P500 is currently 2046.61.

As I have previously mentioned before John Pugliano in his Wealthsteading podcast on 19Mar emphasized using the S&P500 100 day moveing average. SPY which is an ETF which matches the S&P500 is at 204.76 and the 100 day moving average 199.71 His indicator would say it is time to remain invested.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend under pressure” as of 04/21/16. Not a time to buy.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SGold has a price of 22.50, a sell price of 22.13, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 24.58, a sell price 23.25, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 24.13)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 43.13, a sell price 41.67, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 62.47)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 14.27, a sell price 13.70, a rank of 11, and is a hold. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 56.73)
In reviewing the numbers this week I found an error I made on the quote for SGold on 4/29. I had a closing price of 23.69 and it should have been 23.29. This resulted in a minor decline in its percent deviation since then and a more important change in its sell price. I recalculated the sale price after fixing the error.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – No Change
IRA #2 – No Change

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested