Author: Flynn

So how is the rest of the world doing – like China.
http://video.vanityfair.com/watch/the-new-establishment-summit-disrupting-the-global-economy   
Within the video based on the economic numbers China is publishing, one guest calls China “The People’s Republic of Madoff.”

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 85.58, 50 day MA of 83.15, a 200 day MA of 80.70, and a 7% stop loss is 80.28. This is not an investment to buy and hold.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend under pressure” as of 01Dec. Not a time to invest.
Not a good week in the market. My feeling is the excitement the market felt after the election is succumbing to reality and there is a greater potential for the markets to go down than up. The market is starting the 8th and longest uptrend in history, interest rates are up causing losses for bond buyers, the FED is going to raise interest rates (the last time they did this the market took almost a 20% hit), and just slightly more than half the stocks on the NYSE are above their 50 day moving average. IBD suggests investors “cut losses at 7% or 8%. You don’t want to see a loss grow to the point where you become the accidental long-term investor. Collecting mistakes is not a strategy.”

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 30.93, a sell price 29.38, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – KRE- current stoploss 49.72)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 90.50, a sell price 89.62, a rank of 13, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 66.69)
SComputers has a price of 76.85, a sell price 73.98, a rank of 34, and is a hold for now. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 112.20)
STransportation has a price of 91.60, a sell price 87.02, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – XTN – current stoploss 50.47)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
19.91 01-07 FSRBX 30.93 SBanking
16.61 02-03 FSNGX 29.74 SNaturalGas Yes
14.29 03-01 FSESX 53.38 SEnergyService Yes
14.27 04-05 FSRFX 91.60 STransportation
13.69 05-03 FSENX 47.45 SEnergy Yes
13.42 06-05 FSAIX 73.98 SAirTransportation
13.40 07-04 FSLBX 67.79 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
12.17 08-06 FSDAX 137.02 SDefense&Aerospace
11.93 09-04 FIDSX 95.88 SFinancialServices
11.71 10-01 FNARX 31.10 SNaturalResources Yes
10.50 11-04 FCPEX 13.69 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
9.86 12-03 FARNX 12.44 EventDrivenOpportunities
9.73 13-22 FSELX 90.50 SSemiconductors
8.84 14-04 FSPCX 76.36 SInsurance
8.71 15-01 FFGCX 11.39 GlobalCommodity Stock Yes
8.22 16-01 FSCHX 152.79 SChemicals Yes
7.99 17-04 FSVLX 13.08 SConsumerFinance
7.61 18-02 FSCGX 41.57 SIndustrialEquipment
7.57 19-04 FLCSX 28.73 LargeCapStock
7.41 20-0 FLVEX 11.93 LargeCapValueEnchncedIndex
Last week:
20.21 01-06 FSRBX 30.68 SBanking Yes
14.97 02-21 FSELX 95.49 SSemiconductors Yes
14.94 03-04 FSRFX 91.45 STransportation Yes
14.34 04-04 FSAIX 74.05 SAirTransportation Yes
13.77 05-03 FSLBX 67.53 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement Yes
13.07 06-03 FCPEX 13.93 SmallCapEnchancedIndex Yes
12.82 07-05 FSDAX 136.93 SDefense&Aerospace
12.23 08-03 FIDSX 95.53 SFinancialServices Yes
10.99 09-02 FSNGX 28.06 SNaturalGas Yes
10.82 10-03 FARNX 12.62 EventDrivenOpportunities Yes
10.15 11-03 FSPCX 76.92 SInsurance Yes
9.94 12-03 FSVLX 13.26 SConsumerFinance Yes
9.86 13-03 FSLEX 22.63 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy Yes
9.70 14-05 FDSCX 26.34 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
9.19 15-19 FSDCX 32.86 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
9.04 16-02 FSENX 45.18 SEnergy Yes
8.46 17-03 FCPGX 21.02 SmallCapGrowth Yes
8.45 18-03 FLCSX 29.47 LargeCapStock Yes
8.43 19-02 FSEMX 57.44 ExtendedMarketIndex – IC Yes
8.06 20-01 FSCGX 41.58 SIndustrialEquipment

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Oct16 1m-8% 3m-6% 6m-1% 12m+10% 24m+6% 36m+11% 60m44% 120m-1%
Sep16 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+32% 12m+23% 24m+9% 36m+22% 60m52% 120m+6%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(10Nov16) from SEnergyService(FSESX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Oct16 1m-5% 3m-6% 6m+4% 12m+1% 24m+7% 36m+4% 60m+15% 120m+17%
Sep16 1m+2% 3m+3% 6m+13% 12m+7% 24m+9% 36m+8% 60m+20% 120m+20%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

Returns for the month of October were down.
In October IRA#1 -8%, IRA#2 -5%, PDP PIE PIZ DWAS -5%, QQQ -1%, SPY/RSP -2%, DWTR -5%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 -6%, IRA#2 -6%, PDPetc -5%, QQQ 2%, SPY/RSP -2%, DWTR -12%.
For the last 6 months, IRA#1 -1%, IRA#2 4%, PDPetc -3%, QQQ 7%, SPY/RSP -2%, DWTR -3%.
October portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – Sold FSMEX 10/31 – Invested in cash
IRA#2 – Purchased FDCPX 10/03, FSESX 10/10, Sold FSMEX 10/13 – Invested in FSELX, FSNGX, FDCPX, FSESX, cash
PDP PIE PIZ DWAS – Purchased DWAS 10/03, Sold PDP 10/03, PIZ 10/27, DWAS 10/27, – Invested in PDP, cash
QQQ – None – Invested in QQQ
SPY/RSP – NONE – Invested in RSP
DWTR – Purchased DWTR 10/03 – Invested in DWTR

“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com:
On Friday, 04Nov, the short term outlook is bearish, intermediate term outlook is bearish, long term outlook is neutral.
On Friday, 11Nov, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is bearish, long term outlook is neutral.
On Friday, 18Nov, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is neutral to bullish, long term outlook is neutral.
On Friday, 23Nov, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is neutral to bullish, long term outlook is neutral.
Sort of getting better, slowly – no 25Nov report.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 86.32, 50 day MA of 82.84, a 200 day MA of 80.32, and a 7% stop loss is 80.28. However this is not an investment to buy and hold.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed uptrend” as of 09Nov. Time to invest. This current rally is just based on FED money printing and hope things get better. The Fed will probably raise short term interest rates in December and reality should replace hope soon. However it is good while it lasts.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 30.68, a sell price 29.15, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – KRE- current stoploss 48.64)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 95.49, a sell price 90.72, a rank of 02, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 66.69)
SComputers has a price of 77.59, a sell price 73.98, a rank of 31, and is a hold for now. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 112.20)
STransportation has a price of 91.45, a sell price TBD, a rank of 03, and is a Buy. (ETF – XTN)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – purchase 20% STransportation

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
20.21 01-06 FSRBX 30.68 SBanking Yes
14.97 02-21 FSELX 95.49 SSemiconductors Yes
14.94 03-04 FSRFX 91.45 STransportation Yes
14.34 04-04 FSAIX 74.05 SAirTransportation Yes
13.77 05-03 FSLBX 67.53 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement Yes
13.07 06-03 FCPEX 13.93 SmallCapEnchancedIndex Yes
12.82 07-05 FSDAX 136.93 SDefense&Aerospace
12.23 08-03 FIDSX 95.53 SFinancialServices Yes
10.99 09-02 FSNGX 28.06 SNaturalGas Yes
10.82 10-03 FARNX 12.62 EventDrivenOpportunities Yes
10.15 11-03 FSPCX 76.92 SInsurance Yes
9.94 12-03 FSVLX 13.26 SConsumerFinance Yes
9.86 13-03 FSLEX 22.63 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy Yes
9.70 14-05 FDSCX 26.34 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
9.19 15-19 FSDCX 32.86 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
9.04 16-02 FSENX 45.18 SEnergy Yes
8.46 17-03 FCPGX 21.02 SmallCapGrowth Yes
8.45 18-03 FLCSX 29.47 LargeCapStock Yes
8.43 19-02 FSEMX 57.44 ExtendedMarketIndex – IC Yes
8.06 20-01 FSCGX 41.58 SIndustrialEquipment
Last week:
19.72 01-05 FSRBX 30.23 SBanking Yes
13.61 02-03 FSRFX 89.68 STransportation Yes
13.21 03-02 FSLBX 66.71 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement Yes
13.03 04-20 FSELX 93.14 SSemiconductors Yes
12.87 05-03 FSAIX 72.55 SAirTransportation Yes
11.75 06-02 FIDSX 94.51 SFinancialServices Yes
10.74 07-02 FCPEX 13.55 SmallCapEnchancedIndex Yes
10.33 08-04 FSDAX 133.01 SDefense&Aerospace
9.74 09-02 FSPCX 76.23 SInsurance Yes
8.97 10-01 FSNGX 27.39 SNaturalGas Yes
8.82 11-18 FSDCX 32.59 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
8.77 12-02 FSVLX 13.05 SConsumerFinance Yes
8.63 13-02 FARNX 12.30 EventDrivenOpportunities Yes
8.00 14-04 FDSCX 25.80 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
7.53 15-02 FLCSX 29.09 LargeCapStock Yes
7.49 16-16 FDCPX 77.69 SComputers Yes
7.46 17-02 FSLEX 22.02 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy Yes
7.08 18-02 FCPGX 20.66 SmallCapGrowth Yes
6.75 19-01 FSENX 44.02 SEnergy Yes
6.58 20-01 FSEMX 56.21 ExtendedMarketIndex – IC Yes

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Oct16 1m-8% 3m-6% 6m-1% 12m+10% 24m+6% 36m+11% 60m44% 120m-1%
Sep16 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+32% 12m+23% 24m+9% 36m+22% 60m52% 120m+6%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(10Nov16) from SEnergyService(FSESX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Oct16 1m-5% 3m-6% 6m+4% 12m+1% 24m+7% 36m+4% 60m+15% 120m+17%
Sep16 1m+2% 3m+3% 6m+13% 12m+7% 24m+9% 36m+8% 60m+20% 120m+20%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

Gary Kaltbaum has a daily podcast called investors edge. On 11/17 Jim Rohrback of investment.models.com called in. He produces two market timing services. On 10/11 he got out of the S&P500 and Nasdaq. On 11/11 he got back into the Nasdaq but has yet to get back into the S&P500. He suggests everyone send him an email at Jim@rixindex and request a sample copy of his report.
“Help your friends make money in the stock market. Send them this link and they can instantly get IBD Digital FREE for 4 weeks.”
http://shop.investors.com/offer/splashresponsive.aspx?id=ibddigital&src=A00019

“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com:
On Friday, 04Nov, the short term outlook is bearish, intermediate term outlook is bearish, long term outlook is neutral.
On Friday, 11Nov, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is bearish, long term outlook is neutral.
On Friday, 18Nov, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is neutral to bullish, long term outlook is neutral.
Sort of getting better, slowly

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 84.87, 50 day MA of 82.53, a 200 day MA of 79.97, and a 7% stop loss is 79.12.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed uptrend” as of 09Nov. Time to invest.
It is a little scary how much the market has jumped since the election.
But the market is up so it is time to buy. 81 of the 120 Fidelity funds I follow are ‘buy’s.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 30.23, a sell price TBD, a rank of 01, and is a buy. (ETF – KRE)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 93.14, a sell price 88.48, a rank of 04, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 65.41)
SComputers has a price of 77.69, a sell price 73.98, a rank of 16, and is a hold. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 109.95)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – purchase 100% SBanking
IRA #2 – purchase 20% SBanking

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
19.72 01-05 FSRBX 30.23 SBanking Yes
13.61 02-03 FSRFX 89.68 STransportation Yes
13.21 03-02 FSLBX 66.71 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement Yes
13.03 04-20 FSELX 93.14 SSemiconductors Yes
12.87 05-03 FSAIX 72.55 SAirTransportation Yes
11.75 06-02 FIDSX 94.51 SFinancialServices Yes
10.74 07-02 FCPEX 13.55 SmallCapEnchancedIndex Yes
10.33 08-04 FSDAX 133.01 SDefense&Aerospace
9.74 09-02 FSPCX 76.23 SInsurance Yes
8.97 10-01 FSNGX 27.39 SNaturalGas Yes
8.82 11-18 FSDCX 32.59 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
8.77 12-02 FSVLX 13.05 SConsumerFinance Yes
8.63 13-02 FARNX 12.30 EventDrivenOpportunities Yes
8.00 14-04 FDSCX 25.80 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
7.53 15-02 FLCSX 29.09 LargeCapStock Yes
7.49 16-16 FDCPX 77.69 SComputers Yes
7.46 17-02 FSLEX 22.02 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy Yes
7.08 18-02 FCPGX 20.66 SmallCapGrowth Yes
6.75 19-01 FSENX 44.02 SEnergy Yes
6.58 20-01 FSEMX 56.21 ExtendedMarketIndex – IC Yes
Last week:
16.93 01-04 FSRBX 29.22 SBanking
11.45 02-03 FSDAX 133.63 SDefense&Aerospace
11.17 03-02 FSRFX 87.12 STransportation
11.08 04-01 FSLBX 65.00 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
10.92 05-02 FSAIX 70.81 SAirTransportation Yes
10.85 06-19 FSELX 90.72 SSemiconductors
9.97 07-01 FIDSX 92.43 SFinancialServices
8.82 08-01 FSPCX 75.20 SInsurance
8.69 09-17 FSDCX 32.40 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
8.60 10-01 FGRIX 32.58 Growth&Income
7.68 11-01 FCPEX 13.10 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
7.10 12-01 FSVLX 12.79 SConsumerFinance
7.05 13-01 FSLEX 21.85 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
6.96 14-01 FSCGX 40.84 SIndustrialEquipment
6.49 15-15 FDCPX 76.67 SComputers
6.20 16-01 FARNX 11.97 EventDrivenOpportunities
6.10 17-01 FLCSX 28.59 LargeCapStock
5.86 18-03 FDSCX 25.18 StockSelectorSmallCap
5.45 19-01 FCPGX 20.27 SmallCapGrowth
5.45 20-01 FEQIX 55.74 Equity-Income

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Sep16 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+32% 12m+23% 24m+9% 36m+22% 60m52% 120m+6%
Aug16 1m+1% 3m+14% 6m+31% 12m+22% 24m+7% 36m+29% 60m51% 120m+9%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(10Nov16) from SEnergyService(FSESX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(07Nov16) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Sep16 1m+2% 3m+3% 6m+13% 12m+7% 24m+9% 36m+8% 60m+20% 120m+20%
Aug16 1m-2% 3m+8% 6m+13% 12m+6% 24m+6% 36m+9% 60m+18% 120m+22%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

It was an interesting week. Election results resulted in quite a market change. The DJIA even hit a new high. While the election results did not change my long term bearish view, I am not as pessimistic as NY Times economist Paul Krugman (my “favorite” Keynesian economist) who predicted the market would never recover from a Trump victory. If you are looking for one of the 4k  jobs in the new administration try www.greatagain.gov/serve-america.html

Each weekend I get a free email on market ideas from Stockcharts.com. I’ve always reviewed it quickly but found last weekend I discovered I should read it in detail. They have free webinars. The archive of webinars is https://stockcharts.com/webinars/archives/. Wednesday and Friday the free webinar is called “The DecisionPoint Report”. Last Friday’s report said short term outlook is bearish, intermediate term outlook is bearish, long term outlook is neutral. The report is a little technical but worth the price. In the report EMA is exponential moving average – the same calculation I use each week to compute my “deviation from the exponential moving average (EMA)” – PMO is Price Momentum Oscillator. OBV is On Balance Volume, and SCTR (aka ‘Scooter’) is StockChart’s Technical Rank.
This week the outlook changed slightly. On Friday, 11Nov, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is bearish, long term outlook is neutral. The ETFs they report as bullish are Dollar index – UUP, DOW – DIA, Nasdaq 100 – QQQ, QQEW (QQQ equal weight (EW)), Energy – KLE, Financial – XLF, RYF(EW), Industrial – XLI, RGI(EW), Materials EW – RTM, Technology – XLK, RYT(EW). Many indexes are capitalization weighted. The larger the market valuation, the more weight in the index. For example, in the S&P500 index ETF – SPY – Apple’s weight is 3.10%, Microsoft is 2.44%, etc. In an equal weighted (EW) S&P500 index , RSP, Apple’s weight would be 1/500 or 0.2%, Microsoft weight would be 0.2%, etc.

This week I talked with a young lady about a simple invest method. I suggested with a small investment the ETF SPY would be a good place to start. When SPY is above the 50 day moving average (MA) and the 200 day MA it should be owned. When it is below the 50 day MA consider selling it. When it is below the 200 day MA do not own it. I told her I do that with my SPY/RSP portfolio. Stop loss orders can be placed at the 50 day MA, 200 day MA, or. as I do, a 7% stop loss (from the highest close) to prevent a major loss. RSP (SPY EW) has a price of 83.67, 50 day MA of 82.42, a 200 day MA of 79.62, and a 7% stop loss is 78.78. However this is not an investment to buy and hold.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed uptrend” as of 09Nov. Time to invest except I wait a week until after the market pulse moves to confirmed uptrend. Often the market pulse changes quickly.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
CashReserves
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 90.72, a sell price 88.45, a rank of 06, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 64.75)
SComputers has a price of 76.67, a sell price 73.98, a rank of 15, and is a hold. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 105.48)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
16.93 01-04 FSRBX 29.22 SBanking
11.45 02-03 FSDAX 133.63 SDefense&Aerospace
11.17 03-02 FSRFX 87.12 STransportation
11.08 04-01 FSLBX 65.00 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
10.92 05-02 FSAIX 70.81 SAirTransportation Yes
10.85 06-19 FSELX 90.72 SSemiconductors
9.97 07-01 FIDSX 92.43 SFinancialServices
8.82 08-01 FSPCX 75.20 SInsurance
8.69 09-17 FSDCX 32.40 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
8.60 10-01 FGRIX 32.58 Growth&Income
7.68 11-01 FCPEX 13.10 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
7.10 12-01 FSVLX 12.79 SConsumerFinance
7.05 13-01 FSLEX 21.85 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
6.96 14-01 FSCGX 40.84 SIndustrialEquipment
6.49 15-15 FDCPX 76.67 SComputers
6.20 16-01 FARNX 11.97 EventDrivenOpportunities
6.10 17-01 FLCSX 28.59 LargeCapStock
5.86 18-03 FDSCX 25.18 StockSelectorSmallCap
5.45 19-01 FCPGX 20.27 SmallCapGrowth
5.45 20-01 FEQIX 55.74 Equity-Income
Last week:
9.34 01-18 FSELX 88.97 SSemiconductors
6.46 02-04 FJSCX 15.61 JapanSmallerCompanies Yes
5.40 03-20 FLATX 21.27 LatinAmerica
4.94 04-16 FSDCX 31.14 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
4.70 05-03 FSRBX 25.93 SBanking
4.41 06-16 FSCSX 132.43 SSoftware&ITServices
4.28 07-16 FSPTX 129.74 STechnology
4.27 08-02 FEMEX 8.07 EmergingEMEA
4.25 09-05 FJPNX 12.50 Japan
4.05 10-01 FSAGX 23.28 SGold
3.99 11-21 FTEMX 11.14 TotalEmergingMarkets
3.88 12-03 FFGCX 10.74 GlobalCommodity Stock
3.49 13-14 FDCPX 74.25 SComputers
3.14 14-06 FSNGX 25.73 SNaturalGas
3.11 15-01 FSAIX 65.45 SAirTransportation
2.94 16-01 FISMX 24.09 InternationalSmallCap
2.92 17-01 FSRFX 80.18 STransportation
2.63 18-02 FSPCX 70.59 SInsurance
2.55 19-02 FSDAX 122.22 SDefense&Aerospace
2.32 20-01 FPBFX 28.45 PacificBasin

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(31Oct16) from SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)
Sep16 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+32% 12m+23% 24m+9% 36m+22% 60m52% 120m+6%
Aug16 1m+1% 3m+14% 6m+31% 12m+22% 24m+7% 36m+29% 60m51% 120m+9%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(10Nov16) from SEnergyService(FSESX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(07Nov16) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(31Oct16) from SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Sep16 1m+2% 3m+3% 6m+13% 12m+7% 24m+9% 36m+8% 60m+20% 120m+20%
Aug16 1m-2% 3m+8% 6m+13% 12m+6% 24m+6% 36m+9% 60m+18% 120m+22%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

Markets depend on economic statistics prepared by governments. John Williams was on Future Money Trends podcast in an interview on Oct23. Mr. Williams produces a number of US statistics (www.shadowstats.com) based on the correct data without political manipulations. He indicated he had not seen any in government stats manipulated to influence the election and felt if the GDP number came in at 2% or less on Oct28 it would represent just the normal manipulation. The number came in at 2.9%. As part of the history of political manipulation he pointed out in the 80s 160k jobs were added each month to the monthly job report because it was felt the numbers were too low. That was changed in the 90s when NAFTA was signed in an effort to hide the job loss NAFTA caused. He also indicated that because the cost of living is manipulated to keep it low, all other numbers on income, sales, business production, etc. are too high.
On 02Nov Gary Kaltbaum on his 6pm show reported he was all in cash. To the best of my memory, he has never said the cash level of his investments before. He then went on to say he should not have said that because you should make up your own mind, not just follow him.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend Under Pressure” as of 11Oct. Not a time to invest. The S&P500 ended down for the 9th straight day the longest losing streak since 1980.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
CashReserves
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 88.97, a sell price 88.45, a rank of 01, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 64.75)
SNaturalGas has a price of 25.73, a sell price 25.88, a rank of 14, and is a SELL. (ETF – PSCE – stoppped out at 17.58)
SComputers has a price of 74.25, a sell price 73.98, a rank of 13, and is a hold. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 105.48)
SEnergyService has a price of 45.18, a sell price 47.20, a rank of 108, and is a SELL but due to Fidelity’s stupid rules will not let me sell it until after 09Nov without a small penalty and if I do, will also call me and warn me that if I do it again, they will prevent me from buying their funds – a great reason to buy ETFs. (ETF – XES – stopped out at 18.54)
I continue to complain to Fidelity suggesting if they knew how to manage a fund it would not be down and I would not sell. I can sell it on 11/10 and will. So I called Fidelity to verify the 11/10 date, put in my userid/password, said I had a mutual fund question, and was transfered to an extension closed for the weekend. So I called back, did not put in my userid/password, spoke to a representative, complained about my previous call, and she verified 11/10 was the correct sell date.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – sell SNatualGas now and SEnergyService on 11/10

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested and then after 11/10 it will be 40%

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
9.34 01-18 FSELX 88.97 SSemiconductors
6.46 02-04 FJSCX 15.61 JapanSmallerCompanies Yes
5.40 03-20 FLATX 21.27 LatinAmerica
4.94 04-16 FSDCX 31.14 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
4.70 05-03 FSRBX 25.93 SBanking
4.41 06-16 FSCSX 132.43 SSoftware&ITServices
4.28 07-16 FSPTX 129.74 STechnology
4.27 08-02 FEMEX 8.07 EmergingEMEA
4.25 09-05 FJPNX 12.50 Japan
4.05 10-01 FSAGX 23.28 SGold
3.99 11-21 FTEMX 11.14 TotalEmergingMarkets
3.88 12-03 FFGCX 10.74 GlobalCommodity Stock
3.49 13-14 FDCPX 74.25 SComputers
3.14 14-06 FSNGX 25.73 SNaturalGas
3.11 15-01 FSAIX 65.45 SAirTransportation
2.94 16-01 FISMX 24.09 InternationalSmallCap
2.92 17-01 FSRFX 80.18 STransportation
2.63 18-02 FSPCX 70.59 SInsurance
2.55 19-02 FSDAX 122.22 SDefense&Aerospace
2.32 20-01 FPBFX 28.45 PacificBasin
Last week:
11.67 01-19 FLATX 22.47 LatinAmerica
11.61 02-17 FSELX 90.37 SSemiconductors
7.66 03-15 FSCSX 136.24 SSoftware&ITServices
7.51 04-15 FSPTX 133.46 STechnology
7.30 05-02 FSRBX 26.51 SBanking Yes
6.72 06-05 FSNGX 26.58 SNaturalGas
6.64 07-13 FDCPX 76.37 SComputers
6.34 08-03 FJSCX 15.54 JapanSmallerCompanies Yes
6.27 09-20 FTEMX 11.36 TotalEmergingMarkets
5.07 10-04 FJPNX 12.57 Japan Yes
5.00 11-05 FSENX 43.03 SEnergy
4.87 12-15 FSDCX 31.04 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
4.28 13-02 FFGCX 10.76 GlobalCommodity Stock
4.16 14-01 FLCSX 27.96 LargeCapStock
4.11 15-01 FEMEX 8.04 EmergingEMEA
4.10 16-05 FNARX 28.57 SNaturalResources
3.96 17-01 FSDAX 123.73 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
3.92 18-01 FSPCX 71.38 SInsurance
3.88 19-01 FWRLX 8.88 SWireless
3.83 20-01 FGRTX 16.59 MegaCapStock Yes

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(31Oct16) from SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)
Sep16 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+32% 12m+23% 24m+9% 36m+22% 60m52% 120m+6%
Aug16 1m+1% 3m+14% 6m+31% 12m+22% 24m+7% 36m+29% 60m51% 120m+9%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(10Nov16) from SEnergyService(FSESX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(07Nov16) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(31Oct16) from SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Sep16 1m+2% 3m+3% 6m+13% 12m+7% 24m+9% 36m+8% 60m+20% 120m+20%
Aug16 1m-2% 3m+8% 6m+13% 12m+6% 24m+6% 36m+9% 60m+18% 120m+22%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

Returns for the month of September were mixed.
In September IRA#1 1%, IRA#2 2%, PDP PIE PIZ DWAS 0%, QQQ 2%, SPY/RSP 0%, DWTR -4%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 8%, IRA#2 3%, PDPetc 3%, QQQ 10%, SPY/RSP 0%, DWTR -3%.
For the last 6 months, IRA#1 32%, IRS#2 13%, PDPetc 1%, QQQ 5%, SPY/RSP 1%, DWTR 2%.
September portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – None – Invested in FSMEX
IRA#2 – Sold FLATX 9/19 – Invested in FSELX, FSNGX, FSMEX, cash
PDP PIE PIZ DWAS – None – Invested in PDP, PIE, PIZ
QQQ – None – Invested in QQQ
SPY/RSP – NONE – Invested in RSP
DWTR – Sold DWTR 9/13 – Invested in cash

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend Under Pressure” as of 11Oct. Not a time to invest.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Systems has a price of 39.77, a sell price of 41.36, a rank of 94, and is a sell. (ETF – IHI stopped out at 136.18)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 90.37, a sell price 88.45, a rank of 02, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 64.75)
SNaturalGas has a price of 26.66, a sell price 25.88, a rank of 06, and is a hold. (ETF – PSCE – current stoploss 17.58)
SComputers has a price of 76.37, a sell price 73.98, a rank of 07, and is a hold. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 105.48)
SEnergyService has a price of 47.71, a sell price 47.20, a rank of 28, and is a hold (for now). (ETF – XES – stopped out at 18.54)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – sell SMedicalEquipment&Systems
IRA #2 – sell SMedicalEquipment&Systems

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
11.67 01-19 FLATX 22.47 LatinAmerica
11.61 02-17 FSELX 90.37 SSemiconductors
7.66 03-15 FSCSX 136.24 SSoftware&ITServices
7.51 04-15 FSPTX 133.46 STechnology
7.30 05-02 FSRBX 26.51 SBanking Yes
6.72 06-05 FSNGX 26.58 SNaturalGas
6.64 07-13 FDCPX 76.37 SComputers
6.34 08-03 FJSCX 15.54 JapanSmallerCompanies Yes
6.27 09-20 FTEMX 11.36 TotalEmergingMarkets
5.07 10-04 FJPNX 12.57 Japan Yes
5.00 11-05 FSENX 43.03 SEnergy
4.87 12-15 FSDCX 31.04 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
4.28 13-02 FFGCX 10.76 GlobalCommodity Stock
4.16 14-01 FLCSX 27.96 LargeCapStock
4.11 15-01 FEMEX 8.04 EmergingEMEA
4.10 16-05 FNARX 28.57 SNaturalResources
3.96 17-01 FSDAX 123.73 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
3.92 18-01 FSPCX 71.38 SInsurance
3.88 19-01 FWRLX 8.88 SWireless
3.83 20-01 FGRTX 16.59 MegaCapStock Yes
Last week
13.45 01-18 FLATX 22.69 LatinAmerica Yes
11.74 02-16 FSELX 89.92 SSemiconductors
9.40 03-04 FSNGX 27.15 SNaturalGas
8.73 04-14 FSPTX 134.44 STechnology
8.02 05-04 FSENX 44.15 SEnergy
7.99 06-14 FSCSX 136.11 SSoftware&ITServices
7.76 07-03 FSESX 49.68 SEnergyService Yes
7.47 08-19 FTEMX 11.45 TotalEmergingMarkets
7.25 09-04 FNARX 29.37 SNaturalResources
6.29 10-02 FJSCX 15.48 JapanSmallerCompanies
6.13 11-01 FSRBX 26.12 SBanking
6.10 12-12 FDCPX 75.72 SComputers
5.42 13-28 FSMEX 41.86 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
5.26 14-14 FOCPX 86.10 OTCPortfolio
5.21 15-01 FEMKX 24.55 EmergingMarkets
5.20 16-01 FFGCX 10.83 GlobalCommodity Stock
5.06 17-07 FISMX 24.50 InternationalSmallCap
4.85 18-03 FJPNX 12.51 Japan
4.77 19-14 FSDCX 30.93 SCommunicationsEquipment
4.75 20-04 FNCMX 69.47 NasdaqCompositeIndex

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(31Oct16) from SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)
Sep16 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+32% 12m+23% 24m+9% 36m+22% 60m52% 120m+6%
Aug16 1m+1% 3m+14% 6m+31% 12m+22% 24m+7% 36m+29% 60m51% 120m+9%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(31Oct16) from SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)
20% – SEnergyService(FSESX)(10Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SNaturalGas(FSNGX)(22Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Sep16 1m+2% 3m+3% 6m+13% 12m+7% 24m+9% 36m+8% 60m+20% 120m+20%
Aug16 1m-2% 3m+8% 6m+13% 12m+6% 24m+6% 36m+9% 60m+18% 120m+22%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

One radio show which provides a lot of market information is Investors Edge. It is on at 6:06 each weekday on various radio stations, the Biztalkradio web site, the Biztalkradio app (cell phone or tablet), and later at Garyk.com, biztalkradio app/web site, and podcast. Gary Kaltbaum indicates as long as the banks, oil, and semiconductor stocks are doing well, the market will not go down. He also has a lot of comments about the crook(H) and the chameleon(D).
Harry Dent was on the Tuesday podcast of Future Money Trends. Basically the crash, caused by excessive debt, is coming after the third bubble (2001, 2008, 2017) bursts.
Wall Street Week mentioned the US national debt on the Friday evening show. With the current rates on bonds, the age old rule of thumb to invest in stocks and bonds does not work. The investment in bonds was intended to be a safe way to make money. Bonds are still maybe safe, but they do not make money. In fact the latest rules from the Governmental Accounting Standards Board, GASP, requires state and local governments to add billions of dollars in retirement obligations to their balance sheet in 2017. Basically that means most cities and states will show a negative balance sheet. If the US government did that for the national debt will not be 20T, but 120T to 200T when social security, medicare, etc. obligations are added. What will the value of city, state, and US bonds be when the debt is included on the balance sheet and they are basically bankrupt?

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend Under Pressure” as of 11Oct. Not a time to invest.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 41.86, a sell price of 41.36, a rank of 13, and is a hold. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 136.18)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 89.92, a sell price 88.45, a rank of 02, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 64.75)
SNaturalGas has a price of 27.15, a sell price 25.88, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – PSCE – current stoploss 17.58)
SComputers has a price of 75.72, a sell price 73.98, a rank of 12, and is a hold. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 105.48)
SEnergyService has a price of 49.68, a sell price 47.20, a rank of 07, and is a nold. (ETF – XES – current stoploss 18.54)
Yes I have updated the stoploss numbers and yes they did not change. They only change when there is a new high close. This was a week of very little price change.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
13.45 01-18 FLATX 22.69 LatinAmerica Yes
11.74 02-16 FSELX 89.92 SSemiconductors
9.40 03-04 FSNGX 27.15 SNaturalGas
8.73 04-14 FSPTX 134.44 STechnology
8.02 05-04 FSENX 44.15 SEnergy
7.99 06-14 FSCSX 136.11 SSoftware&ITServices
7.76 07-03 FSESX 49.68 SEnergyService Yes
7.47 08-19 FTEMX 11.45 TotalEmergingMarkets
7.25 09-04 FNARX 29.37 SNaturalResources
6.29 10-02 FJSCX 15.48 JapanSmallerCompanies
6.13 11-01 FSRBX 26.12 SBanking
6.10 12-12 FDCPX 75.72 SComputers
5.42 13-28 FSMEX 41.86 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
5.26 14-14 FOCPX 86.10 OTCPortfolio
5.21 15-01 FEMKX 24.55 EmergingMarkets
5.20 16-01 FFGCX 10.83 GlobalCommodity Stock
5.06 17-07 FISMX 24.50 InternationalSmallCap
4.85 18-03 FJPNX 12.51 Japan
4.77 19-14 FSDCX 30.93 SCommunicationsEquipment
4.75 20-04 FNCMX 69.47 NasdaqCompositeIndex
Last week
11.97 01-15 FSELX 89.55 SSemiconductors
10.31 02-03 FSNGX 27.24 SNaturalGas
10.24 03-17 FLATX 21.89 LatinAmerica Yes
8.77 04-03 FSENX 44.27 SEnergy
7.85 05-13 FSPTX 132.74 STechnology
7.66 06-03 FNARX 29.37 SNaturalResources
7.29 07-11 FDCPX 76.32 SComputers
7.01 08-02 FSESX 49.13 SEnergyService Yes
6.28 09-13 FSCSX 133.39 SSoftware&ITServices
6.10 10-18 FTEMX 11.26 TotalEmergingMarkets
6.08 11-27 FSMEX 42.00 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
5.12 12-01 FJSCX 15.26 JapanSmallerCompanies
4.96 13-13 FOCPX 85.62 OTCPortfolio
4.87 14-01 FSRFX 81.27 STransportation
4.79 15-01 FSPCX 71.70 SInsurance
4.74 16-06 FISMX 24.36 InternationalSmallCap
4.49 17-06 FPBFX 28.89 PacificBasin
4.27 18-02 FJPNX 12.41 Japan
4.19 19-13 FSDCX 30.68 SCommunicationsEquipment
4.14 20-03 FNCMX 68.89 NasdaqCompositeIndex

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Aug16 1m+1% 3m+14% 6m+31% 12m+22% 24m+7% 36m+29% 60m51% 120m+9%
Jul16 1m-6% 3m-7% 6m+16% 12m-10% 24-1% 36m+13% 60m+8% 120m-2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SEnergyService(FSESX)(10Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SNaturalGas(FSNGX)(22Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Aug16 1m-2% 3m+8% 6m+13% 12m+6% 24m+6% 36m+9% 60m+18% 120m+22%
Jul16 1m-6% 3m-1% 6m+4% 12m-9% 24m-1% 36m-9% 60m+2% 120m+14%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

This has not been a great week. Generally down. This is the final weekend of filing your 1040 taxes if you had an extension. It is a busy weekend.
An interesting ETF of the week featured on Chuck Jaffe’s MoneyLife show was GLD. Tom Lydon of ETFTrends said that GLD (a gold ETF) had fallen below its long term trend line and it is probably a good trade to catch a short term up trend. The Fidelity gold fund I follow is Select Gold (FSAGX) and ranks 119 of 120 on my best funds list.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend Under Pressure” as of 11Oct. Not a time to invest.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 42.00, a sell price of 41.36, a rank of 11, and is a hold. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 136.18)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 89.55, a sell price 88.45, a rank of 01, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 64.75)
SNaturalGas has a price of 27.23, a sell price 25.87, a rank of 06, and is a hold. (ETF – PSCE – current stoploss 17.58)
SComputers has a price of 76.32, a sell price 73.98, a rank of 07, and is a hold. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 105.48)
SEnergyService has a price of 49.13, a sell price 46.67, a rank of 08, and is a nold. (ETF – XES – current stoploss 18.54)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
11.97 01-15 FSELX 89.55 SSemiconductors
10.31 02-03 FSNGX 27.24 SNaturalGas
10.24 03-17 FLATX 21.89 LatinAmerica Yes
8.77 04-03 FSENX 44.27 SEnergy
7.85 05-13 FSPTX 132.74 STechnology
7.66 06-03 FNARX 29.37 SNaturalResources
7.29 07-11 FDCPX 76.32 SComputers
7.01 08-02 FSESX 49.13 SEnergyService Yes
6.28 09-13 FSCSX 133.39 SSoftware&ITServices
6.10 10-18 FTEMX 11.26 TotalEmergingMarkets
6.08 11-27 FSMEX 42.00 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
5.12 12-01 FJSCX 15.26 JapanSmallerCompanies
4.96 13-13 FOCPX 85.62 OTCPortfolio
4.87 14-01 FSRFX 81.27 STransportation
4.79 15-01 FSPCX 71.70 SInsurance
4.74 16-06 FISMX 24.36 InternationalSmallCap
4.49 17-06 FPBFX 28.89 PacificBasin
4.27 18-02 FJPNX 12.41 Japan
4.19 19-13 FSDCX 30.68 SCommunicationsEquipment
4.14 20-03 FNCMX 68.89 NasdaqCompositeIndex
Last week
17.15 01-14 FSELX 93.10 SSemiconductors
10.87 02-02 FSNGX 27.23 SNaturalGas Yes
10.29 03-12 FSPTX 135.18 STechnology
10.07 04-12 FSDCX 32.34 SCommunicationsEquipment
9.89 05-10 FDCPX 77.87 SComputers
9.77 06-16 FLATX 21.68 LatinAmerica
9.55 07-02 FSENX 44.38 SEnergy
8.93 08-26 FSMEX 42.99 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
8.24 09-17 FTEMX 11.45 TotalEmergingMarkets
8.13 10-02 FNARX 29.38 SNaturalResources
7.85 11-12 FSCSX 134.91 SSoftware&ITServices
6.70 12-01 FSESX 48.81 SEnergyService Yes
6.57 13-01 FSRBX 26.09 SBanking
6.39 14-12 FOCPX 86.56 OTCPortfolio
6.34 15-05 FISMX 24.67 InternationalSmallCap
6.33 16-05 FPBFX 29.33 PacificBasin
6.10 17-01 FSLBX 61.36 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
6.09 18-01 FEMKX 24.64 EmergingMarkets
5.96 19-02 FNCMX 69.94 NasdaqCompositeIndex
5.69 20-04 FJPNX 12.55 Japan

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Aug16 1m+1% 3m+14% 6m+31% 12m+22% 24m+7% 36m+29% 60m51% 120m+9%
Jul16 1m-6% 3m-7% 6m+16% 12m-10% 24-1% 36m+13% 60m+8% 120m-2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SEnergyService(FSESX)(10Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SNaturalGas(FSNGX)(22Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Aug16 1m-2% 3m+8% 6m+13% 12m+6% 24m+6% 36m+9% 60m+18% 120m+22%
Jul16 1m-6% 3m-1% 6m+4% 12m-9% 24m-1% 36m-9% 60m+2% 120m+14%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

So the DJIA was down 100 on Thursday when one of the head bankers in the EU said there was a guarantee that the EU would continue printing money, and the market went up 100 in the next 5 minutes. We are no longer in a market controlled by fear and greed, we are controlled by the various governmental central bankers. It is really amazing how much of markets countries now own. For example Switzerland has just over $1B invested in Apple. It is an investment, unlike those countries who buy their countries stock to keep the market up. The bank of Japan owns 60% of the ETF representing the Nikkei 225 stock average which helps keep the market up.
One of the more interesting aspects of this weeks market is the drop in the price of gold. The Fidelity Fund FSAGX fell by 13% this week. I was listening to a podcast Follow the Money where the gold guy claimed it was only paper gold price (stock market investments) not the physical gold price which went down. However the physical gold ETF dropped as much as FSAGX.
The MoneyLife podcast on 03Oct included an interview with Harry Dent Jr. Dent has been claiming a market drop of about 70% for several years. His latest book is titled “The Sale of a Lifetime: How the Great Bubble Burst of 2017 Can Make You Rich.” He thinks there are many catalysts to cause this and the top 3 of these are: 1. Deutsche Bank and other EU banks. 2. The oil frackers could only exist with zero interest rates and oil prices above 100. (He thinks oil is going to $20.) 3. The China real estate market where new SMALL apartments in Shenzhen cost $2000 per square foot – that is 66 sq for $132,000.
On Wall Street Week Steve Einhorn, a co-founder of a major money management firm, says there are 5 requirements which are always met at a market top. None of the 5 are met at this time. I guess I should not be concerned.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed uptrend” as of 21Sep. Time to invest. I continue to be surprised that the market is going up. There are so many negatives but as long as the various countries continue to keep rates low or negative it looks like the market will continue up.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 42.99, a sell price of 41.36, a rank of 08, and is a hold. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 135.87)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 93.10, a sell price 88.45, a rank of 01, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 64.75)
SNaturalGas has a price of 27.23, a sell price 25.87, a rank of 06, and is a hold. (ETF – PSCE – current stoploss 17.35)
SComputers has a price of 77.87, a sell price 73.98, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 105.48)
SEnergyService has a price of 48.81, a sell price TBD, a rank of 12, and is a buy. (ETF – XES – purchased on 10/10)
With all the problems in the world I am concerned about this weeks purchase. However, the numbers say buy so I am, just concerned. SEnergyService is one of 5 funds, out of the 120 I follow, which is a buy.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Purchase SEnergyService FSESX

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
17.15 01-14 FSELX 93.10 SSemiconductors
10.87 02-02 FSNGX 27.23 SNaturalGas Yes
10.29 03-12 FSPTX 135.18 STechnology
10.07 04-12 FSDCX 32.34 SCommunicationsEquipment
9.89 05-10 FDCPX 77.87 SComputers
9.77 06-16 FLATX 21.68 LatinAmerica
9.55 07-02 FSENX 44.38 SEnergy
8.93 08-26 FSMEX 42.99 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
8.24 09-17 FTEMX 11.45 TotalEmergingMarkets
8.13 10-02 FNARX 29.38 SNaturalResources
7.85 11-12 FSCSX 134.91 SSoftware&ITServices
6.70 12-01 FSESX 48.81 SEnergyService Yes
6.57 13-01 FSRBX 26.09 SBanking
6.39 14-12 FOCPX 86.56 OTCPortfolio
6.34 15-05 FISMX 24.67 InternationalSmallCap
6.33 16-05 FPBFX 29.33 PacificBasin
6.10 17-01 FSLBX 61.36 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
6.09 18-01 FEMKX 24.64 EmergingMarkets
5.96 19-02 FNCMX 69.94 NasdaqCompositeIndex
5.69 20-04 FJPNX 12.55 Japan
Last week
17.69 01-13 FSELX 92.69 SElectronics
10.93 02-09 FDCPX 78.20 SComputers Yes
10.82 03-11 FSPTX 135.10 STechnology Yes
10.45 04-11 FSDCX 32.28 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
10.32 05-01 FSNGX 26.94 SNaturalGas Yes
9.88 06-25 FSMEX 43.16 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
9.68 07-38 FSAGX 24.54 SGold
9.56 08-01 FSENX 44.16 SEnergy Yes
8.93 09-01 FNARX 29.47 SNaturalResources Yes
8.51 10-11 FSCSX 135.18 SSoftware&ITServices
8.14 11-14 FTEMX 11.39 TotalEmergingMarkets
7.69 12-04 FISMX 24.90 InternationalSmallCap Yes
7.60 13-04 FPBFX 29.58 PacificBasin
7.45 14-11 FOCPX 87.13 OTCPortfolio
7.33 15-15 FLATX 21.09 LatinAmerica
7.19 16-03 FJPNX 12.69 Japan
7.10 17-02 FJSCX 15.46 JapanSmallerCompanies Yes
6.99 18-03 FCPGX 20.39 SmallCapGrowth
6.87 19-01 FSLEX 21.55 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy Yes
6.65 20-01 FNCMX 70.18 NasdaqCompositeIndex

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Aug16 1m+1% 3m+14% 6m+31% 12m+22% 24m+7% 36m+29% 60m51% 120m+9%
Jul16 1m-6% 3m-7% 6m+16% 12m-10% 24-1% 36m+13% 60m+8% 120m-2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SEnergyService(FSESX)(10Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SNaturalGas(FSNGX)(22Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Aug16 1m-2% 3m+8% 6m+13% 12m+6% 24m+6% 36m+9% 60m+18% 120m+22%
Jul16 1m-6% 3m-1% 6m+4% 12m-9% 24m-1% 36m-9% 60m+2% 120m+14%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

Way back in September 2008 Lehman Brothers went bankrupt because there was no firm left to buy it at fire sale prices like Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, and others who were purchased by other firms with the help of tons of US Treasury dollars. Probably the overriding cause was the use of leverage and derivatives. Deutsche Bank, the largest bank in Germany, now have a ratio of about 3T in assets to 55T in derivatives. The stock price, when compared to Lehman Brothers price back in 06-08 is almost the same. Deutache Bank’s stock price is down about 80% in 2 years. It is the biggest bank in Germany with about 3 times the assets as the second biggest bank. And the US Treasury has recently hit the bank with a 15B dollar fine. Anyone see a problem in banks coming (again)?
So I wrote the above comments on Monday. Then on Thursday Deutache Bank caused a big market decline. On Friday there was a fix in to save the bank and the market went up. Friday Germany’s second bank, Commerzbank, suspended its divided and will cut 1/5 of their employees with a 9,000 layoff. Things do not look good in the land of big German banks.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is  “Confirmed uptrend” as of 21Sep. Time to invest. I continue to be surprised that the market is going up. There are so many negatives but as long as the various countries continue to keep rates low or negative it looks like the market will continue up.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 43.16, a sell price of 41.36, a rank of 06, and is a hold. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 136.01)
IRA#2
SElectronics has a price of 92.69, a sell price 88.06, a rank of 01, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 64.61)
SNaturalGas has a price of 26.94, a sell price 25.59, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – PSCE – stopped out on 9/13, purchased again on 10/3)
SComputers has a price of 78.20, a sell price TBD, a rank of 02, and is a buy. (ETF – SOXX – purchased on 10/3)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Purchase SComputers FDCPX

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 –  100% invested
IRA #2 –  80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
17.69 01-13 FSELX 92.69 SElectronics  
10.93 02-09 FDCPX 78.20 SComputers Yes
10.82 03-11 FSPTX 135.10 STechnology Yes
10.45 04-11 FSDCX 32.28 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
10.32 05-01 FSNGX 26.94 SNaturalGas Yes
9.88 06-25 FSMEX 43.16 SMedicalEquipment&Systems  
9.68 07-38 FSAGX 24.54 SGold  
9.56 08-01 FSENX 44.16 SEnergy Yes
8.93 09-01 FNARX 29.47 SNaturalResources Yes
8.51 10-11 FSCSX 135.18 SSoftware&ITServices  
8.14 11-14 FTEMX 11.39 TotalEmergingMarkets  
7.69 12-04 FISMX 24.90 InternationalSmallCap Yes
7.60 13-04 FPBFX 29.58 PacificBasin  
7.45 14-11 FOCPX 87.13 OTCPortfolio  
7.33 15-15 FLATX 21.09 LatinAmerica  
7.19 16-03 FJPNX 12.69 Japan  
7.10 17-02 FJSCX 15.46 JapanSmallerCompanies Yes
6.99 18-03 FCPGX 20.39 SmallCapGrowth  
6.87 19-01 FSLEX 21.55 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy Yes
6.65 20-01 FNCMX 70.18 NasdaqCompositeIndex                
Last week
14.07 01-12 FSELX 89.00 SElectronics  
13.48 02-34 FSAGX 25.26 SGold  
11.42 03-24 FSMEX 43.54 SMedicalEquipment&Systems Yes
10.82 04-10 FSPTX 134.33 STechnology Yes
9.93 05-08 FDCPX 77.05 SComputers Yes
9.48 06-20 FBIOX 197.51 SBiotechnology Yes
9.08 07-13 FTEMX 11.44 TotalEmergingMarkets  
8.91 08-10 FSCSX 135.07 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
8.55 09-10 FOCPX 87.67 OTCPortfolio Yes
8.24 10-10 FSDCX 31.46 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
8.16 11-14 FLATX 21.17 LatinAmerica  
7.96 12-03 FPBFX 29.56 PacificBasin  
7.93 13-01 FJPNX 12.73 Japan  
7.47 14-03 FISMX 24.75 InternationalSmallCap  
7.38 15-01 FEMEX 8.20 EmergingEMEA  
7.36 16-09 FEMKX 24.77 EmergingMarkets  
7.23 17-02 FCPGX 20.36 SmallCapGrowth Yes
6.96 18-02 FCPEX 12.85 SmallCapEnchancedIndex Yes
6.92 19-05 FSLBX 61.45 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
6.88 20-01 FJSCX 15.37 JapanSmallerCompanies      

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Aug16 1m+1% 3m+14% 6m+31% 12m+22% 24m+7% 36m+29% 60m51% 120m+9%
Jul16 1m-6% 3m-7% 6m+16% 12m-10% 24-1% 36m+13% 60m+8% 120m-2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(19Sep16) from LatinAmreica(FLATX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(29Aug16) from SGold(FSAGX)
20% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – RealEstateInvestmentPortfolio(FRESX)(21Mar16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – Telecom&Utilities(FIUIX)(14Mar16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Aug16 1m-2% 3m+8% 6m+13% 12m+6% 24m+6% 36m+9% 60m+18% 120m+22%
Jul16 1m-6% 3m-1% 6m+4% 12m-9% 24m-1% 36m-9% 60m+2% 120m+14%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%