Author: Flynn

A good week.

Consuelo Mack in her 2/10 weekly show, available online at wealthtrack.com, featured an interview with Charlie Dreifus. He did not indicate he was barish but as a value investor, finds less and less to buy. “Priced to perfection: after a 30% plus gain, value investor Charles Dreifus cautions the markets are expensive and its time to “de-risk” portfolios.” Near the end of the show, even Ms. Mack emphasises his remarks. Ms. Mack is generally bullish.

So what do you do when the markets start down? Well the first thing is to sell. Cash in a portfolio does not decline. If you are even more aggressive, after you sell, you can buy a bear ETFs. For example if you own SPY (S&P500 index ETF), sell it, then invest in SH – a bear SPY. If you own QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF), sell it, then invest in PSQ – a short QQQ. Sometime do a Google search on short ETFs. Since there are double and triple ETFs which go up 2 & 3 times faster than a basic index ETF (TQQQ it the triple QQQ), there are also 2 & 3 times short ETFs (SQQQ is the triple short QQQ). In my opinion, double and triple ETFs are excessively risky. I have owned triple bull ETFs but never a short ETF of any type.

“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com: (https://stockcharts.com/webinars/archives/)
On Friday, 03Feb, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is neutral to bullish, long term outlook bullish.
On Friday, 10Feb, the short term outlook is neutral to bearish, intermediate term outlook is bullish, long term outlook bullish.
The report did note that the energy sector ETFs moved from a buy rating to a neutral rating.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 89.87, 50 day MA of 87.82, a 200 day MA of 83.22, and a 7% stop loss is 83.58. This is not an investment to buy and hold.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” as of 08Dec. Time to invest. I am fully invested so will buy nothing, but will switch an investment.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 32.78, a sell price 31.30, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – KRE- current stoploss 52.90)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 98.65, a sell price 94.69, a rank of 07, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 70.61)
STransportation has a price of 92.08, a sell price 89.59, a rank of 15, and is a hold. (ETF – XTN – current stoploss 52.76)
SNaturalGas has a price of 29.04, a sell price 28.93, a rank of 46, and is a sell. (ETF – XES – stoploss executed)
SBiotechnology has a price of 193.11, a sell price 183.45, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XBI – current stoploss 62.38)
My stoploss on XES caused a sell last week and this week SNaturalGas is a sell since it ranks so low. I sold SComputers last month and it is a buy today.
SComputers has a price of 80.88, a sell price TBD, a rank of of 05, and is a buy (ETF – PSI)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell SNaturalGas and buy SComputers

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
16.36 01-07 FBIOX 193.11 SBiotechnology Yes
15.90 02-02 FSAGX 22.95 SGold
15.59 03-17 FSRBX 32.78 SBanking
13.56 04-14 FARNX 13.80 EventDrivenOpportunities
12.72 05-04 FDCPX 80.88 SComputers Yes
11.72 06-03 FSPTX 144.80 STechnology Yes
11.49 07-32 FSELX 98.65 SSemiconductors
11.04 08-14 FSLBX 69.99 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
10.93 09-04 FSCHX 157.54 SChemicals
10.88 10-14 FIDSX 100.64 SFinancialServices
10.59 11-11 FSESX 56.09 SEnergyService
10.59 12-14 FSHCX 86.79 SHealthCareServices
9.86 13-13 FCPEX 14.40 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
9.68 14-01 FOCPX 90.53 OTCPortfolio
9.66 15-15 FSRFX 92.08 STransportation
9.26 16-02 FSVLX 13.75 SConsumerFinance Yes
9.13 17-06 FFGCX 11.84 GlobalCommodity Stock
8.89 18-09 FCYIX 33.34 SIndustrials
8.79 19-01 FSCSX 139.54 SSoftware&ITServices
8.71 20-01 FSLEX 23.48 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
Last week:
16.90 01-16 FSRBX 32.88 SBanking
14.99 02-06 FBIOX 189.20 SBiotechnology
13.96 03-13 FARNX 13.75 EventDrivenOpportunities Yes
13.53 04-10 FSESX 57.26 SEnergyService
13.31 05-01 FSAGX 22.25 SGold
12.60 06-31 FSELX 99.03 SSemiconductors
12.28 07-03 FSCHX 158.55 SChemicals
11.43 08-13 FIDSX 100.56 SFinancialServices
11.10 09-13 FSLBX 69.62 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement Yes
10.85 10-13 FSHCX 86.51 SHealthCareServices
10.83 11-03 FDCPX 78.99 SComputers Yes
10.22 12-05 FFGCX 11.90 GlobalCommodity Stock
10.07 13-02 FSPTX 141.78 STechnology Yes
9.98 14-12 FCPEX 14.34 SmallCapEnchancedIndex Yes
9.57 15-14 FSRFX 91.54 STransportation
9.39 16-12 FSNGX 29.59 SNaturalGas
9.23 17-01 FSVLX 13.68 SConsumerFinance Yes
9.21 18-04 FEMEX 8.70 EmergingEMEA
8.95 19-02 FSDPX 80.70 SMaterials
8.62 20-08 FCYIX 33.10 SIndustrials

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Dec16 1m+6% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+24% 24m+14% 36m+14% 60m+65% 120m-6%
Nov16 1m+1% 3m-6% 6m+7% 12m+15% 24m+5% 36m+9% 60m+52% 120m-5%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – SBiotechnology(FBIOX)(16Jan17) from SComputers(FDCPX)
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Dec16 1m+2% 3m-0% 6m+3% 12m+9% 24m+8% 36m+7% 60m+21% 120m+18%
Nov16 1m+3% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+4% 24m+7% 36m+6% 60m+19% 120m+21%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

This last week was an ok week. Not a bad, week not a good week.

Zacks has a Market Edge podcast. On the 31 January, they discussed ETFs such as PRNT (3d printing), SNSR (the internet of things), IFLY (drones), GVIP (hedge funds largest holdings), ITEQ (Israeli tech stocks), WSKY (whiskey and spirits), AIRR (American Industrial Resonance ), etc.

An interesting article from Mark Hulbert: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-biggest-threat-to-your-money-now-ignoring-the-scent-of-a-bear-market-2017-01-20.

Wall Street Week on Friday had two interesting guests. Robert Doll from Nuveen and Dan Shaffer from Shaffer. Doll thinks interest rates will go higher (buy financials), the market will be flat at a 5% gain at most for the year and Shaffer thinks interest rates will go lower (sell financials), investors should be ready to sell. Doll thinks financials, healthcare, and technology are good investments. Shaffer we should buy government bonds and food is becoming a scarce commodity and thus buy food companies and food ETFs.

“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com: (https://stockcharts.com/webinars/archives/)
On Friday, 27Jan, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is neutral to bullish, long term outlook bullish.
On Friday, 03Feb, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is neutral to bullish, long term outlook bullish.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 88.96, 50 day MA of 87.50, a 200 day MA of 82.99, and a 7% stop loss is 83.00. This is not an investment to buy and hold. The RSP (and the SPY) have done very little since 09Dec. There was a slight peak about 8 days ago but it looks like bull market is getting tired.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” as of 08Dec. Time to invest. I am fully invested so will buy nothing, but am watching the sell prices closely.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 32.88, a sell price 31.30, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – KRE- current stoploss 52.90)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 99.03, a sell price 94.69, a rank of 06, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 70.54)
STransportation has a price of 91.54, a sell price 89.59, a rank of 15, and is a hold. (ETF – XTN – current stoploss 52.76)
SNaturalGas has a price of 29.59, a sell price 28.93, a rank of 16, and is a hold. (ETF – XES – stoploss executed)
SBiotechnology has a price of 189.20, a sell price 179.74, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – XBI – current stoploss 61.36)
My stoploss on XES was executed at 22.06 on Monday when the price fell to 21.88. The price has since recovered and is up 5% since I sold but still down from my purchase price. Perhaps the 7% stop loss was too tight, but it looks to me that XES is no longer a buy anyway (SNaturalGas is also not be a buy this week).

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
16.90 01-16 FSRBX 32.88 SBanking
14.99 02-06 FBIOX 189.20 SBiotechnology
13.96 03-13 FARNX 13.75 EventDrivenOpportunities Yes
13.53 04-10 FSESX 57.26 SEnergyService
13.31 05-01 FSAGX 22.25 SGold
12.60 06-31 FSELX 99.03 SSemiconductors
12.28 07-03 FSCHX 158.55 SChemicals
11.43 08-13 FIDSX 100.56 SFinancialServices
11.10 09-13 FSLBX 69.62 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement Yes
10.85 10-13 FSHCX 86.51 SHealthCareServices
10.83 11-03 FDCPX 78.99 SComputers Yes
10.22 12-05 FFGCX 11.90 GlobalCommodity Stock
10.07 13-02 FSPTX 141.78 STechnology Yes
9.98 14-12 FCPEX 14.34 SmallCapEnchancedIndex Yes
9.57 15-14 FSRFX 91.54 STransportation
9.39 16-12 FSNGX 29.59 SNaturalGas
9.23 17-01 FSVLX 13.68 SConsumerFinance Yes
9.21 18-04 FEMEX 8.70 EmergingEMEA
8.95 19-02 FSDPX 80.70 SMaterials
8.62 20-08 FCYIX 33.10 SIndustrials
Last week:
18.20 01-15 FSRBX 32.95 SBanking
15.16 02-09 FSESX 57.67 SEnergyService
14.09 03-30 FSELX 99.67 SSemiconductors
13.45 04-13 FSRFX 94.30 STransportation
12.96 05-12 FARNX 13.53 EventDrivenOpportunities
12.73 06-02 FSCHX 158.15 SChemicals
11.75 07-05 FBIOX 182.42 SBiotechnology
11.70 08-12 FIDSX 100.19 SFinancialServices
11.56 09-04 FFGCX 11.98 GlobalCommodity Stock
10.80 10-13 FSAIX 75.66 SAirTransportation
10.77 11-12 FSLBX 69.01 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
10.75 12-11 FSNGX 29.81 SNaturalGas
10.09 13-12 FSHCX 85.43 SHealthCareServices
9.94 14-11 FCPEX 14.26 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
9.93 15-01 FSDPX 81.04 SMaterials
9.87 16-03 FEMEX 8.71 EmergingEMEA
9.74 17-07 FCYIX 33.29 SIndustrials
9.68 18-01 FSPTX 140.53 STechnology
9.52 19-02 FDCPX 77.61 SComputers
9.00 20-01 FSCSX 138.57 SSoftware&ITServices

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Dec16 1m+6% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+24% 24m+14% 36m+14% 60m+65% 120m-6%
Nov16 1m+1% 3m-6% 6m+7% 12m+15% 24m+5% 36m+9% 60m+52% 120m-5%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SNaturalGas(FSNGX)(12Dec16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Dec16 1m+2% 3m-0% 6m+3% 12m+9% 24m+8% 36m+7% 60m+21% 120m+18%
Nov16 1m+3% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+4% 24m+7% 36m+6% 60m+19% 120m+21%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

In December IRA#1 6%, IRA#2 2%, QQQ 1%, SPY/RSP 1%, DWTR -1%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 -1%, IRA#2 -0%, QQQ 0%, SPY/RSP 4%, DWTR -4%.
For the last 6 months, IRA#1 7%, IRA#2 3%, QQQ 11%, SPY/RSP 8%, DWTR -7%.
For the last 12 months, IRA#1 24%, IRA#2 9%, QQQ 9%, SPY/RSP 9%, DWTR -5%
December portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – None, Invested in FSRBX.
IRA#2 – Purchased FSNGX 12/12 – Invested in FSRFX, FSRBX, FSELX, FDCPX, FSNGX
QQQ – None – Invested in QQQ
SPY/RSP – NONE – Invested in RSP
DWTR – NONE – Invested in DWTR
Last January was a real big down month but on a yearly basis all the portfolios made money except for DWTR. DWTR is a tactical sector rotation ETF (updated monthly) currently owning ETFs PRN (industrials), PFI (financial), PXI (energy), and PTF (technology). The 4 ETFs DWTR owns are managed on a quarterly basis based on the best performing stock in the appropriate sector. My feeling is that the monthly and quarterly management produces good long term performance in a trending market but not good performance in other markets.

“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com: (https://stockcharts.com/webinars/archives/)
On Friday, 20Jan, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is neutral to bearish, long term outlook bullish.
On Friday, 27Jan, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is neutral to bullish, long term outlook bullish.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 88.74, 50 day MA of 87.14, a 200 day MA of 82.75, and a 7% stop loss is 83.00. This is not an investment to buy and hold.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” as of 08Dec. Time to invest

The guests on Well Street Week on 1/27 indicated finance, electronics, and energy should be good long term investments. They also pointed out that the market in February following a new presidential election is down 80% of the time.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 32.95, a sell price 31.30, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – KRE- current stoploss 52.90)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 99.67, a sell price 94.69, a rank of 03, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 70.54)
STransportation has a price of 94.30, a sell price 89.59, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – XTN – current stoploss 52.76)
SNaturalGas has a price of 29.81, a sell price 28.93, a rank of 12, and is a hold. (ETF – XES – current stoploss 22.06)
SBiotechnology has a price of 182.42, a sell price 174.56, a rank of 12, and is a hold. (ETF – XBI – current stoploss 60.45)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
18.20 01-15 FSRBX 32.95 SBanking
15.16 02-09 FSESX 57.67 SEnergyService
14.09 03-30 FSELX 99.67 SSemiconductors
13.45 04-13 FSRFX 94.30 STransportation
12.96 05-12 FARNX 13.53 EventDrivenOpportunities
12.73 06-02 FSCHX 158.15 SChemicals
11.75 07-05 FBIOX 182.42 SBiotechnology
11.70 08-12 FIDSX 100.19 SFinancialServices
11.56 09-04 FFGCX 11.98 GlobalCommodity Stock
10.80 10-13 FSAIX 75.66 SAirTransportation
10.77 11-12 FSLBX 69.01 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
10.75 12-11 FSNGX 29.81 SNaturalGas
10.09 13-12 FSHCX 85.43 SHealthCareServices
9.94 14-11 FCPEX 14.26 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
9.93 15-01 FSDPX 81.04 SMaterials
9.87 16-03 FEMEX 8.71 EmergingEMEA
9.74 17-07 FCYIX 33.29 SIndustrials
9.68 18-01 FSPTX 140.53 STechnology
9.52 19-02 FDCPX 77.61 SComputers
9.00 20-01 FSCSX 138.57 SSoftware&ITServices
Last week:
14.84 01-08 FSESX 57.05 SEnergyService
14.67 02-14 FSRBX 31.66 SBanking
13.27 03-04 FBIOX 183.75 SBiotechnology
12.14 04-11 FARNX 13.34 EventDrivenOpportunities
11.89 05-29 FSELX 97.02 SSemiconductors
11.72 06-12 FSRFX 92.21 STransportation
10.41 07-10 FSNGX 29.55 SNaturalGas
10.36 08-11 FSHCX 85.18 SHealthCareServices
9.99 09-03 FFGCX 11.74 GlobalCommodity Stock
9.98 10-12 FSAIX 74.67 SAirTransportation
9.83 11-11 FIDSX 97.91 SFinancialServices
9.43 12-11 FSLBX 67.79 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
8.81 13-10 FCPEX 14.04 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
8.45 14-01 FSAVX 36.75 SAutomotive
8.42 15-06 FCYIX 32.72 SIndustrials
8.04 16-02 FEMEX 8.52 EmergingEMEA
7.99 17-11 FSVLX 13.40 SConsumerFinance
7.92 18-01 FSPCX 77.65 SInsurance
7.92 19-02 FSTCX 71.02 STelecommunications
7.91 20-01 FSCHX 150.37 SChemicals

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Dec16 1m+6% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+24% 24m+14% 36m+14% 60m+65% 120m-6%
Nov16 1m+1% 3m-6% 6m+7% 12m+15% 24m+5% 36m+9% 60m+52% 120m-5%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SNaturalGas(FSNGX)(12Dec16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Dec16 1m+2% 3m-0% 6m+3% 12m+9% 24m+8% 36m+7% 60m+21% 120m+18%
Nov16 1m+3% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+4% 24m+7% 36m+6% 60m+19% 120m+21%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

Here is an online report from 20Jan to review.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investing-legend-jim-rogers-says-dump-stocks-if-trump-launches-trade-war-2017-01-20

A couple of weeks ago I spent some time in a presentation from a very successful portfolio manager from my local bank. Basically his group produces a portfolio of several funds for you based on your goals and risk tolerance. Because of the diversification of his portfolio investments he generally has some investments going up and some not. My only question was how does he manage risk, when does he sell. He indicated he does not sell, only buys funds which go down less. I told him I did not want to be invested in down market.
That is my problem with every investment manager. There are some independent investment managers which will get you out of a down market, but most investment managers with major firms will never sell. I have tried over the last 20 years, investing some money with 7 different investment managers under the belief that a professional manager can do better than I, an amateur, can do. They all did worse during the years they had my investments.
Remember professional managers generally get 1%+/- fee of your balance a year – regardless of you gain or loss, you invest in stocks or stay in cash. It is still 1%+/- fee of the balance
If you had invested in RSP (the S&P 500 index equal weighted ETF – (SPY is the S&P500 index capitalization weighted ETF)) when it moved above the 200 day moving average and sold when it declined below it, you would have been out of the market from Aug 2015 and back in in Mar 2016. Thus you would have avoided the down turn in 2015 and bad start of 2016 and would have ended 16 with a gain of about 14%.
Investing in DIA (the Dow Jones Industrial Index ETF) had about the same results with a 16% gain.
So if you into a simpler way to invest, I suggest using the RSP and the 200 day moving average. Both Finance.yahoo.com and stockcharts.com will give you the quotes and the averages. Stockcharts.com is a little more accurate.

“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com:
On Friday, 13Jan, the short term outlook is bearish, intermediate term is neutral, long term outlook bullish.
On Friday, 20Jan, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term is neutral to bearish, long term outlook bullish.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 87.97, 50 day MA of 86.60, a 200 day MA of 82.47, and a 7% stop loss is 82.18. This is not an investment to buy and hold.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” as of 08Dec. Time to invest

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 31.66, a sell price 31.13, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – KRE- current stoploss 52.51)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 97.02, a sell price 93.08, a rank of 05, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 68.61)
STransportation has a price of 92.21, a sell price 88.92, a rank of 06, and is a hold. (ETF – XTN – current stoploss 52.76)
SNaturalGas has a price of 29.55, a sell price 28.93, a rank of 07, and is a hold. (ETF – XES – current stoploss 22.06)
SBiotechnology has a price of 183.75, a sell price 174.56, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – XBI – current stoploss 60.45)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
14.84 01-08 FSESX 57.05 SEnergyService
14.67 02-14 FSRBX 31.66 SBanking
13.27 03-04 FBIOX 183.75 SBiotechnology
12.14 04-11 FARNX 13.34 EventDrivenOpportunities
11.89 05-29 FSELX 97.02 SSemiconductors
11.72 06-12 FSRFX 92.21 STransportation
10.41 07-10 FSNGX 29.55 SNaturalGas
10.36 08-11 FSHCX 85.18 SHealthCareServices
9.99 09-03 FFGCX 11.74 GlobalCommodity Stock
9.98 10-12 FSAIX 74.67 SAirTransportation
9.83 11-11 FIDSX 97.91 SFinancialServices
9.43 12-11 FSLBX 67.79 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
8.81 13-10 FCPEX 14.04 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
8.45 14-01 FSAVX 36.75 SAutomotive
8.42 15-06 FCYIX 32.72 SIndustrials
8.04 16-02 FEMEX 8.52 EmergingEMEA
7.99 17-11 FSVLX 13.40 SConsumerFinance
7.92 18-01 FSPCX 77.65 SInsurance
7.92 19-02 FSTCX 71.02 STelecommunications
7.91 20-01 FSCHX 150.37 SChemicals
Last week:
18.82 01-13 FSRBX 32.55 SBanking
16.74 02-03 FBIOX 188.06 SBiotechnology Yes
15.87 03-07 FSESX 57.11 SEnergyService
14.81 04-10 FARNX 13.57 EventDrivenOpportunities Yes
13.70 05-28 FSELX 97.98 SSemiconductors
12.33 06-10 FIDSX 99.62 SFinancialServices
12.30 07-10 FSLBX 69.22 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
11.96 08-11 FSRFX 91.83 STransportation Yes
11.85 09-10 FSHCX 85.86 SHealthCareServices Yes
11.73 10-09 FSNGX 29.74 SNaturalGas
11.58 11-09 FCPEX 14.33 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
11.52 12-11 FSAIX 75.32 SAirTransportation
10.85 13-02 FFGCX 11.77 GlobalCommodity Stock Yes
9.91 14-10 FSVLX 13.58 SConsumerFinance
9.26 15-01 FEMEX 8.58 EmergingEMEA Yes
9.48 15-01 FSCHX 151.93 SChemicals Yes
9.20 17-05 FCYIX 32.81 SIndustrials
9.18 18-02 FLCSX 30.04 LargeCapStock
8.72 19-01 FDSCX 26.56 StockSelectorSmallCap
8.61 20-01 FSTCX 71.18 STelecommunications

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Nov16 1m+1% 3m-6% 6m-7% 12m+15% 24m+5% 36m+9% 60m52% 120m-5%
Oct16 1m-8% 3m-6% 6m-1% 12m+10% 24m+6% 36m+11% 60m44% 120m-1%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SNaturalGas(FSNGX)(12Dec16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Nov16 1m+3% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+4% 24m+7% 36m+6% 60m+19% 120m+21%
Oct16 1m-5% 3m-6% 6m+4% 12m+1% 24m+7% 36m+4% 60m+15% 120m+17%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

Monday is a holiday and the market is closed.

Wall Street week had an interesting comment this week by one of the guests. Seems there has been 4 Republican sweeps in the last 100 years and in each one there was a pre inauguration market bounce. Then after the bounce, the market went down, Bush -33%, Reagan -27%, Hoover a bunch (1929).

A couple of online reports for you to review this week.

Jim Rogers in a CNBC report tells you where to invest now:
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/09/investing-legend-jim-rogers-forget-china-buy-russia.html

Jeffrey Gunlach on investing now: http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/5277137521001/?#sp=show-clips

Stockcharts.com has an interesting report on a measure of market sentiment:
http://stockcharts.com/articles/decisionpoint/2017/01/rydex-cashflow-ratio-sentiment-putting-money-where-the-mouth-is.html

“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com:
On Friday, 06Jan, the short term outlook is neutral to bearish, intermediate term is neutral, long term outlook is neutral to bullish.
On Friday, 13Jan, the short term outlook is bearish, intermediate term is neutral, long term outlook bullish.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 88.05, 50 day MA of 86.00, a 200 day MA of 82.24, and a 7% stop loss is 82.18. This is not an investment to buy and hold.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” as of 08Dec. Time to invest

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 32.55, a sell price 30.92, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – KRE- current stoploss 52.51)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 97.98, a sell price 93.08, a rank of 05, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 68.60)
SComputers has a price of 75.87, a sell price 72.08, a rank of 28, and is a sell – there are some buys. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 118.18)
STransportation has a price of 91.83, a sell price 88.92, a rank of 08, and is a hold. (ETF – XTN – current stoploss 52.76)
SNaturalGas has a price of 29.74, a sell price 28.93, a rank of 10, and is a Hold. (ETF – XES – current stoploss 22.06)
SBiotechnology has a price of 188.06, a sell price TBD, a rank of 02, and is a buy. (ETF – XBI – current stoploss TBD)
I really dislike buying SBiotechnology. It is extremely volatile, liable to go up or down a couple percent a day. However the numbers put it as the best fund to buy. It may be a good investment as long as Trump does not Tweet about it.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Selling SComputers, buying SBiotechnology.

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
18.82 01-13 FSRBX 32.55 SBanking
16.74 02-03 FBIOX 188.06 SBiotechnology Yes
15.87 03-07 FSESX 57.11 SEnergyService
14.81 04-10 FARNX 13.57 EventDrivenOpportunities Yes
13.70 05-28 FSELX 97.98 SSemiconductors
12.33 06-10 FIDSX 99.62 SFinancialServices
12.30 07-10 FSLBX 69.22 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
11.96 08-11 FSRFX 91.83 STransportation Yes
11.85 09-10 FSHCX 85.86 SHealthCareServices Yes
11.73 10-09 FSNGX 29.74 SNaturalGas
11.58 11-09 FCPEX 14.33 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
11.52 12-11 FSAIX 75.32 SAirTransportation
10.85 13-02 FFGCX 11.77 GlobalCommodity Stock Yes
9.91 14-10 FSVLX 13.58 SConsumerFinance
9.26 15-01 FEMEX 8.58 EmergingEMEA Yes
9.48 15-01 FSCHX 151.93 SChemicals Yes
9.20 17-05 FCYIX 32.81 SIndustrials
9.18 18-02 FLCSX 30.04 LargeCapStock
8.72 19-01 FDSCX 26.56 StockSelectorSmallCap
8.61 20-01 FSTCX 71.18 STelecommunications
Last week:
19.78 01-12 FSRBX 32.49 SBanking
18.93 02-06 FSESX 58.13 SEnergyService
16.66 03-02 FBIOX 186.27 SBiotechnology
15.11 04-08 FSNGX 30.45 SNaturalGas
14.18 05-09 FARNX 13.39 EventDrivenOpportunities
13.40 06-09 FIDSX 99.92 SFinancialServices
13.28 07-09 FSLBX 69.37 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
12.27 08-27 FSELX 96.05 SSemiconductors
11.79 09-08 FCPEX 14.27 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
11.26 10-10 FSAIX 74.69 SAirTransportation
11.25 11-10 FSRFX 90.68 STransportation
11.18 12-08 FSENX 47.70 SEnergy
11.13 13-09 FSVLX 13.66 SConsumerFinance
10.56 14-09 FSHCX 84.34 SHealthCareServices
9.86 15-09 FNARX 31.30 SNaturalResources
9.75 16-01 FLCSX 30.05 LargeCapStock
9.64 17-11 FSDAX 131.76 SDefense&Aerospace
9.60 18-09 FSPCX 78.18 SInsurance
9.39 19-04 FCYIX 32.71 SIndustrials
9.31 20-01 FFGCX 11.54 GlobalCommodity Stock

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Nov16 1m+1% 3m-6% 6m-7% 12m+15% 24m+5% 36m+9% 60m52% 120m-5%
Oct16 1m-8% 3m-6% 6m-1% 12m+10% 24m+6% 36m+11% 60m44% 120m-1%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SNaturalGas(FSNGX)(12Dec16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Nov16 1m+3% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+4% 24m+7% 36m+6% 60m+19% 120m+21%
Oct16 1m-5% 3m-6% 6m+4% 12m+1% 24m+7% 36m+4% 60m+15% 120m+17%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

The latest issue of Doug Fabian’s podcast “ETF Success” features his opinion that the emerging markets should be the best place to invest now. His contention is with the dollar up they can sell more goods to the US. Also since the emerging market stocks are down so much they have a long way to go to hit a new high.

Consuelo Mack in her Wealthtrack show featured Ed Hyman, Wall Street’s #1 ranked economist for the last 36 years. Hyman does not see a recession coming in the US for years but there are some concerns. That also does not mean there won’t be a decline in the market sometime this year. He also pointed out that total debt was much higher now that it was in 2008.

I mentioned a couple of weeks ago some problems with the California Public Employees Retirement System. Today’s Palm Beach Post claims “Consultantants say pension fund projections could be too rosy.” The state of Florida lowered the projection rate of return down to 7.6% in October. It was 7.65%. The consultants think it should be about 7%. Page 8 of the “State Board of Administration, Florida Retirment System Trust Fund” says under Investment Returns “The Trust earned an overall investment return of .54% for fiscal year 2016…” It goes on to say that there are other ways to calculate the rate of return which may in a higher number. It is a long way from .54% to 7%.

“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com:
On Wednesday, 30Dec, the short term outlook is neutral to bearish, intermediate term is neutral to bullish, long term outlook is neutral to bullish.
On Friday, 06Jan, the short term outlook is neutral to bearish, intermediate term is neutral, long term outlook is neutral to bullish.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 88.18, 50 day MA of 85.37, a 200 day MA of 82.01, and a 7% stop loss is 82.18. This is not an investment to buy and hold.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” as of 08Dec. Time to invest. Except none of the top 20 out of 120 funds I follow is a buy.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 32.49, a sell price 30.92, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – KRE- current stoploss 52.51)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 95.52, a sell price 92.44, a rank of 05, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 68.60)
SComputers has a price of 75.46, a sell price 71.73, a rank of 26, and is a hold for now. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 118.18)
STransportation has a price of 90.68, a sell price 88.92, a rank of 11, and is a hold. (ETF – XTN – current stoploss 52.76)
SNaturalGas has a price of 30.45, a sell price 28.93, a rank of 04, and is a Hold. (ETF – XES – current stoploss 22.06)
Generally I would be selling SComputers since it is not one of the top 20, however none of the top 20 have had an increasing deviation for two weeks.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
19.78 01-12 FSRBX 32.49 SBanking
18.93 02-06 FSESX 58.13 SEnergyService
16.66 03-02 FBIOX 186.27 SBiotechnology
15.11 04-08 FSNGX 30.45 SNaturalGas
14.18 05-09 FARNX 13.39 EventDrivenOpportunities
13.40 06-09 FIDSX 99.92 SFinancialServices
13.28 07-09 FSLBX 69.37 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
12.27 08-27 FSELX 96.05 SSemiconductors
11.79 09-08 FCPEX 14.27 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
11.26 10-10 FSAIX 74.69 SAirTransportation
11.25 11-10 FSRFX 90.68 STransportation
11.18 12-08 FSENX 47.70 SEnergy
11.13 13-09 FSVLX 13.66 SConsumerFinance
10.56 14-09 FSHCX 84.34 SHealthCareServices
9.86 15-09 FNARX 31.30 SNaturalResources
9.75 16-01 FLCSX 30.05 LargeCapStock
9.64 17-11 FSDAX 131.76 SDefense&Aerospace
9.60 18-09 FSPCX 78.18 SInsurance
9.39 19-04 FCYIX 32.71 SIndustrials
9.31 20-01 FFGCX 11.54 GlobalCommodity Stock
Last week:
19.96 01-11 FSRBX 32.20 SBanking
15.31 02-05 FSESX 55.80 SEnergyService
12.84 03-08 FIDSX 98.72 SFinancialServices
12.71 04-07 FSNGX 29.58 SNaturalGas
12.38 05-26 FSELX 95.52 SSemiconductors
12.18 06-07 FCPEX 14.23 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
11.31 07-09 FSAIX 74.28 SAirTransportation
11.26 08-08 FARNX 12.95 EventDrivenOpportunities
11.19 09-09 FSRFX 90.09 STransportation
11.10 10-08 FSLBX 67.56 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
9.97 11-01 FBIOX 174.05 SBiotechnology
9.64 12-07 FSENX 46.76 SEnergy
9.50 13-08 FSVLX 13.38 SConsumerFinance
9.29 14-08 FSPCX 77.56 SInsurance
8.76 15-08 FSHCX 82.51 SHealthCareServices
8.73 16-03 FCYIX 32.35 SIndustrials
8.18 17-04 FDSCX 26.18 StockSelectorSmallCap
8.13 18-01 FEMEX 8.41 EmergingEMEA
8.00 19-10 FSDAX 129.13 SDefense&Aerospace
7.89 20-05 FNARX 30.58 SNaturalResources

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Nov16 1m+1% 3m-6% 6m-7% 12m+15% 24m+5% 36m+9% 60m52% 120m-5%
Oct16 1m-8% 3m-6% 6m-1% 12m+10% 24m+6% 36m+11% 60m44% 120m-1%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SNaturalGas(FSNGX)(12Dec16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Nov16 1m+3% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+4% 24m+7% 36m+6% 60m+19% 120m+21%
Oct16 1m-5% 3m-6% 6m+4% 12m+1% 24m+7% 36m+4% 60m+15% 120m+17%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

I hope you all have a Happy New Year and the market is closed on Monday.

 

In November IRA#1 1%, IRA#2 3%, PDP PIE PIZ DWAS -2%, QQQ 0%, SPY/RSP 5%, DWTR 1%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 -6%, IRA#2 -1%, PDPetc -6%, QQQ 1%, SPY/RSP 3%, DWTR -8%.
For the last 6 months, IRA#1 7%, IRA#2 7%, PDPetc -3%, QQQ 3%, SPY/RSP 1%, DWTR -3%.
November portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – Pruchased FSRBX 11/21 – Invested in FSRBX.
IRA#2 – Sold FSNGX 11/07, FSESX 11/10, Purchased FSRBX 11/21, FSRFX 11/28 – Invested in FSRFX, FSRBX, FSELX, FDCPX, cash
PDP PIE PIZ DWAS – Sold PIE 11/10 – Invested in Cash – this method of investing is not working out for me. I am going to liquidate this portfoio.
QQQ – None – Invested in QQQ
SPY/RSP – NONE – Invested in RSP
DWTR – NONE – Invested in DWTR

On Chuck Jaffe’s daily podscast, MoneyLive, of 12/16/16 Adam Grimes of Waverly Advisors said based on his analysis, we are standing at the start of another up moves and the market will go up 100% over the next +/-3 years. There may be a couple of dramatic jiggles but just stay invested for now. It will continue to be a broad rally and a big chunk of an index fund would a good idea for most investors. He thinks the US is a better place compared to the rest of the world.
On 12/30/16 Investors Edge program, they indicated the ice was getting thin, but 2017 looks good long term.
This was the first week the DJIA went down over the last 8 weeks. This was the first week Gold has gone up over the last 8 weeks.

So I Fidelity updated their distribution list for 12/29 not sure it it right because but it exists. Fidelity seems to have severe problems getting this right during years which end in the month of December. They did however miss those whose distribution were on 12/27 since in the “year end list” they still say pending. They are just so screwed up on distributions. I may have missed some but have tried to get them right.

“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com:
On Wednesday, 30Dec, the short term outlook is neutral to bearish, intermediate term is neutral to bullish, long term outlook is neutral to bullish.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 86.64, 50 day MA of 84.87, a 200 day MA of 81.80, and a 7% stop loss is 82.18. This is not an investment to buy and hold.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” as of 08Dec. Time to invest. Except none of the top 20 out of 120 funds I follow is a buy.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 32.20, a sell price 30.92, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – KRE- current stoploss 52.51)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 95.52, a sell price 92.44, a rank of 05, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 68.60)
SComputers has a price of 74.18, a sell price 71.73, a rank of 36, and is a hold for now. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 118.18)
STransportation has a price of 90.09, a sell price 88.92, a rank of 09, and is a hold. (ETF – XTN – current stoploss 52.76)
SNaturalGas has a price of 29.58, a sell price 28.51, a rank of 04, and is a Hold. (ETF – XES – current stoploss 21.70)
Generally I would be selling SComputers since it is not one of the top 20, however none of the top 20 have had an increasing deviation for two weeks.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
19.96 01-11 FSRBX 32.20 SBanking
15.31 02-05 FSESX 55.80 SEnergyService
12.84 03-08 FIDSX 98.72 SFinancialServices
12.71 04-07 FSNGX 29.58 SNaturalGas
12.38 05-26 FSELX 95.52 SSemiconductors
12.18 06-07 FCPEX 14.23 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
11.31 07-09 FSAIX 74.28 SAirTransportation
11.26 08-08 FARNX 12.95 EventDrivenOpportunities
11.19 09-09 FSRFX 90.09 STransportation
11.10 10-08 FSLBX 67.56 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
9.97 11-01 FBIOX 174.05 SBiotechnology
9.64 12-07 FSENX 46.76 SEnergy
9.50 13-08 FSVLX 13.38 SConsumerFinance
9.29 14-08 FSPCX 77.56 SInsurance
8.76 15-08 FSHCX 82.51 SHealthCareServices
8.73 16-03 FCYIX 32.35 SIndustrials
8.18 17-04 FDSCX 26.18 StockSelectorSmallCap
8.13 18-01 FEMEX 8.41 EmergingEMEA
8.00 19-10 FSDAX 129.13 SDefense&Aerospace
7.89 20-05 FNARX 30.58 SNaturalResources
Last week:
22.55 01-10 FSRBX 32.55 SBanking
17.18 02-04 FSESX 56.25 SEnergyService
15.24 03-06 FSNGX 30.04 SNaturalGas
15.23 04-25 FSELX 97.30 SSemiconductors
14.71 05-07 FIDSX 99.68 SFinancialServices
13.61 06-06 FCPEX 14.32 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
13.55 07-08 FSRFX 91.46 STransportation
13.35 08-08 FSAIX 75.19 SAirTransportation
13.04 09-07 FSLBX 68.34 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
12.27 10-07 FARNX 12.99 EventDrivenOpportunities
12.08 11-06 FSENX 47.56 SEnergy
10.79 12-07 FSVLX 13.47 SConsumerFinance
10.72 13-07 FSPCX 78.19 SInsurance
10.31 14-02 FCYIX 32.67 SIndustrials
10.02 15-07 FSHCX 83.08 SHealthCareServices
9.69 16-04 FNARX 30.96 SNaturalResources
9.29 17-07 FLCSX 29.65 LargeCapStock
9.28 18-09 FSDAX 130.11 SDefense&Aerospace
8.90 19-02 FSDCX 33.07 SCommunicationsEquipment
8.90 20-03 FDSCX 26.24 StockSelectorSmallCap
Last week:

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Nov16 1m+1% 3m-6% 6m-7% 12m+15% 24m+5% 36m+9% 60m52% 120m-5%
Oct16 1m-8% 3m-6% 6m-1% 12m+10% 24m+6% 36m+11% 60m44% 120m-1%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SNaturalGas(FSNGX)(12Dec16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Nov16 1m+3% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+4% 24m+7% 36m+6% 60m+19% 120m+21%
Oct16 1m-5% 3m-6% 6m+4% 12m+1% 24m+7% 36m+4% 60m+15% 120m+17%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

I hope you all had a very Merry Christmas. This is late, but the market is closed on Monday.

Future Money trends produces a podcast I listen to regularly. Most of the time they are pushing some penny stocks on the Toronto Stock Exchange. However earlier this week they produced a fantastic interview with David Stockman – best known as President Reagan’s budget director. You should listed to it. Over the last 8 years the annual federal budget has had a deficit than 1.1T per year and yet never had an economy grow at 3% per year. The Federal Reserve Board has been printing money to support that. Obviously unless that continues and gets worse the the economy will tank along with the market. Trump does not stand a change if he tries to spend less. Stockman says the market in the spring and summer of 2017 will be a bloodbath as the market crashes. You should listen to it at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYIDN8TG46Q.

So I called Fidelity another 4 times. Not only did they never update their distributions for 12/16, they did not post them for 12/23. Then I discovered the numbers they posted for 12/09 were incomplete. I hope someday they get their act together (I HOPE!).

“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com:
On Wednesday, 21Dec, the short term outlook is neutral to bullish, intermediate term is neutral to bullish, long term outlook is neutral to bullish. Indicators are looking better.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 88.37, 50 day MA of 84.45, a 200 day MA of 81.59, and a 7% stop loss is 82.18. This is not an investment to buy and hold.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” as of 08Dec. Time to invest. Except none of the top 20 out of 120 funds I follow is a buy.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 32.55, a sell price 30.92, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – KRE- current stoploss 52.18)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 97.30, a sell price 92.44, a rank of 04, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 68.02)
SComputers has a price of 75.14, a sell price 71.73, a rank of 26, and is a hold for now. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 116.74)
STransportation has a price of 91.46, a sell price 88.92, a rank of 07, and is a hold. (ETF – XTN – current stoploss 52.76)
SNaturalGas has a price of 30.01, a sell price 28.51, a rank of 03, and is a Hold. (ETF – XES – current stoploss 21.70)
Generally I would be selling SComputers since it is not one of the top 20, however none of the top 20 have had an increasing deviation for two weeks.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
22.55 01-10 FSRBX 32.55 SBanking
17.18 02-04 FSESX 56.25 SEnergyService
15.24 03-06 FSNGX 30.04 SNaturalGas
15.23 04-25 FSELX 97.30 SSemiconductors
14.71 05-07 FIDSX 99.68 SFinancialServices
13.61 06-06 FCPEX 14.32 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
13.55 07-08 FSRFX 91.46 STransportation
13.35 08-08 FSAIX 75.19 SAirTransportation
13.04 09-07 FSLBX 68.34 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
12.27 10-07 FARNX 12.99 EventDrivenOpportunities
12.08 11-06 FSENX 47.56 SEnergy
10.79 12-07 FSVLX 13.47 SConsumerFinance
10.72 13-07 FSPCX 78.19 SInsurance
10.31 14-02 FCYIX 32.67 SIndustrials
10.02 15-07 FSHCX 83.08 SHealthCareServices
9.69 16-04 FNARX 30.96 SNaturalResources
9.29 17-07 FLCSX 29.65 LargeCapStock
9.28 18-09 FSDAX 130.11 SDefense&Aerospace
8.90 19-02 FSDCX 33.07 SCommunicationsEquipment
8.90 20-03 FDSCX 26.24 StockSelectorSmallCap
Last week:
22.05 01-09 FSRBX 32.03 SBanking
16.51 02-03 FSESX 55.42 SEnergyService
15.74 03-05 FSNGX 29.93 SNaturalGas
14.70 04-06 FIDSX 98.90 SFinancialServices
14.45 05-24 FSELX 95.87 SSemiconductors
14.43 06-05 FCPEX 14.32 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
14.04 07-07 FSRFX 91.20 STransportation
13.93 08-07 FSAIX 75.04 SAirTransportation
13.92 09-06 FSLBX 68.40 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
12.66 10-05 FSENX 47.50 SEnergy
12.65 11-06 FARNX 12.95 EventDrivenOpportunities
11.34 12-06 FSVLX 13.46 SConsumerFinance
10.35 13-06 FSPCX 77.49 SInsurance
10.14 14-03 FNARX 30.93 SNaturalResources
10.06 15-01 FCYIX 32.42 SIndustrials
9.84 16-01 FSDCX 33.20 SCommunicationsEquipment
9.61 17-06 FLCSX 29.59 LargeCapStock
9.43 18-03 FSCHX 149.19 SChemicals
9.24 19-02 FDSCX 26.20 StockSelectorSmallCap
8.95 20-08 FSDAX 129.08 SDefense&Aerospace

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Oct16 1m-8% 3m-6% 6m-1% 12m+10% 24m+6% 36m+11% 60m44% 120m-1%
Sep16 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+32% 12m+23% 24m+9% 36m+22% 60m52% 120m+6%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SNaturalGas(FSNGX)(12Dec16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Oct16 1m-5% 3m-6% 6m+4% 12m+1% 24m+7% 36m+4% 60m+15% 120m+17%
Sep16 1m+2% 3m+3% 6m+13% 12m+7% 24m+9% 36m+8% 60m+20% 120m+20%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

So I am late this week – Yes it is Wednesday but I have been contributing to the economy with a week at WDW.

How well is your pension plan being managed? If you have a pension plan (public or private) you might want to check. “For the first time in its 85-year history, the California Public Employees Retirement System, CalPERS, is drastically cutting benefits for public retirees. Starting January 1st, four retired City of Loyalton public employees will have their pensions cut 60 percent. For 71-year-old Patsy Jardin, that means her pension will drop from about $49,000 a year to a little more than $19,000.”
http://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2016/12/20/calpers-cuts-pension-benefits-for-first-time.html

Fidelity is correct about 95% to the time. Saturday I called (800-fidelity) since the list of current fund distribution was not current. The rep told me I was looking at the wrong list and to look at a list of all estimated year end distributions which was was updated to reflect current distributions. It was not. Then he explained that the distributions had not been determined and the list would be updated when the distributions were determined – a absolute lie since you could look at every fund and see the what the distribution was. I just did not want to look up 120 funds. So I gave up.
I called Monday morning the guy said he would have it researched. But he did not lie to me.
I called Tuesday evening and the lady talked to another rep and determined they did not know who did it but would get it done and provide me with progress reports and they did not lie to me.
On the first call I gave my userid/password and ended up with a rep in the active trading group (ATG). EVERY call I’ve ever made when the ATG answers has resulted in an arogent SOB who thinks he knows everything, will tell me anything to get me off the call, and/or lies to me. When I have not identified myself, I have always gotten satisfactory service. I just forgot and put my uerid/pwasword on the first call this time.

“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com:
On Friday, 16Nov, the short term outlook is bearish, intermediate term is neutral to bullish, long term outlook is neutral to bullish – expecting a short term pull back.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 87.84, 50 day MA of 84.11, a 200 day MA of 81.41, and a 7% stop loss is 82.18. This is not an investment to buy and hold.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” as of 08Dec. Time to invest. Except none of the top 20 out of 120 funds I follow is a buy.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 32.03, a sell price 30.82, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – KRE- current stoploss 52.18)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 95.87, a sell price 91.08, a rank of 05, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 67.43)
SComputers has a price of 75.07, a sell price 71.73, a rank of 24, and is a hold for now. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 115.86)
STransportation has a price of 91.20, a sell price 88.92, a rank of 07, and is a hold. (ETF – XTN – current stoploss 52.76)
SNaturalGas has a price of 29.93, a sell price 28.43, a rank of 03, and is a Buy. (ETF – XES – current stoploss 21.70)
Generally I would be selling SComputers since it is not one of the top 20, however none of the top 20 have had an increasing deviation for two weeks.
Some sell prices and stoplosses have been adjusted to reflect distributions.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
22.05 01-09 FSRBX 32.03 SBanking
16.51 02-03 FSESX 55.42 SEnergyService
15.74 03-05 FSNGX 29.93 SNaturalGas
14.70 04-06 FIDSX 98.90 SFinancialServices
14.45 05-24 FSELX 95.87 SSemiconductors
14.43 06-05 FCPEX 14.32 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
14.04 07-07 FSRFX 91.20 STransportation
13.93 08-07 FSAIX 75.04 SAirTransportation
13.92 09-06 FSLBX 68.40 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
12.66 10-05 FSENX 47.50 SEnergy
12.65 11-06 FARNX 12.95 EventDrivenOpportunities
11.34 12-06 FSVLX 13.46 SConsumerFinance
10.35 13-06 FSPCX 77.49 SInsurance
10.14 14-03 FNARX 30.93 SNaturalResources
10.06 15-01 FCYIX 32.42 SIndustrials
9.84 16-01 FSDCX 33.20 SCommunicationsEquipment
9.61 17-06 FLCSX 29.59 LargeCapStock
9.43 18-03 FSCHX 149.19 SChemicals
9.24 19-02 FDSCX 26.20 StockSelectorSmallCap
8.95 20-08 FSDAX 129.08 SDefense&Aerospace
Last week:
25.07 01-08 FSRBX 32.69 SBanking
18.21 02-04 FSNGX 30.44 SNaturalGas Yes
18.00 03-02 FSESX 55.64 SEnergyService Yes
17.91 04-06 FSRFX 95.42 STransportation
17.62 05-05 FSLBX 70.97 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
16.91 06-06 FSAIX 76.94 SAirTransportation
16.68 07-04 FCPEX 14.49 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
16.60 08-05 FIDSX 100.76 SFinancialServices
16.03 09-05 FARNX 13.25 EventDrivenOpportunities
14.93 10-23 FSELX 95.54 SSemiconductors
14.51 11-04 FSENX 48.16 SEnergy Yes
14.08 12-05 FSVLX 13.92 SConsumerFinance
12.31 13-02 FNARX 31.47 SNaturalResources Yes
12.00 14-07 FSDAX 137.68 SDefense&Aerospace
11.50 15-01 FDSCX 26.61 StockSelectorSmallCap
11.40 16-05 FSPCX 78.63 SInsurance
11.32 17-02 FFGCX 11.56 GlobalCommodity Stock Yes
11.19 18-02 FSCHX 157.91 SChemicals Yes
11.12 19-01 FSSPX 18.99 SmallCapIndex – IC
10.76 20-05 FLCSX 29.75 LargeCapStock

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Oct16 1m-8% 3m-6% 6m-1% 12m+10% 24m+6% 36m+11% 60m44% 120m-1%
Sep16 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+32% 12m+23% 24m+9% 36m+22% 60m52% 120m+6%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SNaturalGas(FSNGX)(12Dec16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Oct16 1m-5% 3m-6% 6m+4% 12m+1% 24m+7% 36m+4% 60m+15% 120m+17%
Sep16 1m+2% 3m+3% 6m+13% 12m+7% 24m+9% 36m+8% 60m+20% 120m+20%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

Next weekend I expect to be out of town and unable to produce this report until the following Wednesday. Make sure your watch your investments and remember that a distribution of $1.00 will decrease the price by $1.00 so the sell price needs to be decreased also.

I’ve said that the FED pumping money into the market is like holding a match under the thermostat during cold weather. The numbers go higher but it does nothing about the economy or the real temperature – the economy is still bad and you are still cold. This is an interesting article about The FED’s actions.
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/party-like-its-1999-the-stock-market-is-a-propaganda-tool/ “This does not end well.”

Chuck Jaffe on his MoneyLife show on 09Dec featured an interview with Martin Pring of Pring Research where Pring indicates that he is quite bullish for the next 6 months. On the show for 08Dec Jaffe interviewed author David Scranton of Sound Income Strategies whose book is “Return on Principle: 7 Core Values to Help Protect Your Money in Good Times and Bad.” Scranton indicated in the interview that in 2007 he worked  to get his clients out of the market and in many ways today’s market is 2007 all over again. He says if we do not have a 30% drop from today’s level we will be breaking three world records regarding previous stock market actions. He indicates the DJIA could hit 20k first but it also could be a 70% drop. The drop will last between 12 to 36 months. He does not know what trigger will start this drop or how soon it will start.

“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com:
On Friday, 09Nov, the short term outlook is neutral to bullish, intermediate term is neutral to bullish, long term outlook is neutral to bullish –
improving but expecting a short term pull back.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 88.51, 50 day MA of 83.59, a 200 day MA of 81.08, and a 7% stop loss is 82.51. This is not an investment to buy and hold.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” as of 08Dec. Time to invest.
I am really not sure how long the market “Trump Bump” will last but will stay with it for now.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 32.69, a sell price 31.06, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – KRE- current stoploss 52.11)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 95.54, a sell price 90.76, a rank of 10, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 67.01)
SComputers has a price of 80.28, a sell price 76.27, a rank of 25, and is a hold for now. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 112.94)
STransportation has a price of 95.42, a sell price 90.65, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – XTN – current stoploss 52.84)
SNaturalGas has a price of 30.44, a sell price TBD, a rank of 02, and is a Buy. (ETF – XES – current stoploss TBD)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – purchase SNaturalGas

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
25.07 01-08 FSRBX 32.69 SBanking
18.21 02-04 FSNGX 30.44 SNaturalGas Yes
18.00 03-02 FSESX 55.64 SEnergyService Yes
17.91 04-06 FSRFX 95.42 STransportation
17.62 05-05 FSLBX 70.97 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
16.91 06-06 FSAIX 76.94 SAirTransportation
16.68 07-04 FCPEX 14.49 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
16.60 08-05 FIDSX 100.76 SFinancialServices
16.03 09-05 FARNX 13.25 EventDrivenOpportunities
14.93 10-23 FSELX 95.54 SSemiconductors
14.51 11-04 FSENX 48.16 SEnergy Yes
14.08 12-05 FSVLX 13.92 SConsumerFinance
12.31 13-02 FNARX 31.47 SNaturalResources Yes
12.00 14-07 FSDAX 137.68 SDefense&Aerospace
11.50 15-01 FDSCX 26.61 StockSelectorSmallCap
11.40 16-05 FSPCX 78.63 SInsurance
11.32 17-02 FFGCX 11.56 GlobalCommodity Stock Yes
11.19 18-02 FSCHX 157.91 SChemicals Yes
11.12 19-01 FSSPX 18.99 SmallCapIndex – IC
10.76 20-05 FLCSX 29.75 LargeCapStock
Last week:
19.91 01-07 FSRBX 30.93 SBanking
16.61 02-03 FSNGX 29.74 SNaturalGas Yes
14.29 03-01 FSESX 53.38 SEnergyService Yes
14.27 04-05 FSRFX 91.60 STransportation
13.69 05-03 FSENX 47.45 SEnergy Yes
13.42 06-05 FSAIX 73.98 SAirTransportation
13.40 07-04 FSLBX 67.79 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
12.17 08-06 FSDAX 137.02 SDefense&Aerospace
11.93 09-04 FIDSX 95.88 SFinancialServices
11.71 10-01 FNARX 31.10 SNaturalResources Yes
10.50 11-04 FCPEX 13.69 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
9.86 12-03 FARNX 12.44 EventDrivenOpportunities
9.73 13-22 FSELX 90.50 SSemiconductors
8.84 14-04 FSPCX 76.36 SInsurance
8.71 15-01 FFGCX 11.39 GlobalCommodity Stock Yes
8.22 16-01 FSCHX 152.79 SChemicals Yes
7.99 17-04 FSVLX 13.08 SConsumerFinance
7.61 18-02 FSCGX 41.57 SIndustrialEquipment
7.57 19-04 FLCSX 28.73 LargeCapStock
7.41 20-0 FLVEX 11.93 LargeCapValueEnchncedIndex
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Oct16 1m-8% 3m-6% 6m-1% 12m+10% 24m+6% 36m+11% 60m44% 120m-1%
Sep16 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+32% 12m+23% 24m+9% 36m+22% 60m52% 120m+6%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SNaturalGas(FSNGX)(12Dec16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Oct16 1m-5% 3m-6% 6m+4% 12m+1% 24m+7% 36m+4% 60m+15% 120m+17%
Sep16 1m+2% 3m+3% 6m+13% 12m+7% 24m+9% 36m+8% 60m+20% 120m+20%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%