Author: Flynn

Macro Voices (macrovoices.com) produces a weekly podcast which is outstanding. The 19Apr podcast featured an interview with Danielle DiMartino Booth author of “Fed Up: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America.” One of the comments about her book is “DiMartino Booth found a cabal of unelected academics (at the Fed) who made decisions without the slightest understanding of the real world, just a slavish devotion to their theoretical models.” In the interview she points out that the Fed’s bailing out of the banks and the Fed’s subsequent zero interest rates (killing the income of those who save) has produced a pension bubble bomb due to hit in the next decade. I wrote about this on 21 Dec with a reference to //www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2016/12/20/calpers-cuts-pension-benefits-for-first-time.html. Pensions plan on a return of ~6% investing primarily in bonds. Bonds are now yielding about 3% and cannot go much higher without bankrupting the US due to the 20T debt we have. Even the finance minister of Germany has pointed out that next year German insurance companies will start going out of business due to the zero interest rates the European Union has. Bottom line is that if you think you will have a pension, MAYBE you will. It was ~30 years ago one of my friend’s dad had his company pension (went bankrupt) taken over by the US Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp. He ended up taking an 85% cut in monthly benefits.

Returns for March IRA#1 -4%, IRA#2 -1%, QQQ 2%, SPY/RSP 0%, DWTR -5%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 -3%, IRA#2 4%, QQQ 11%, SPY/RSP 5%, DWTR -2%.
For the last 6 months, IRA#1 -4%, IRA#2 4%, QQQ 12%, SPY/RSP 9%, DWTR -7%.
For the last 12 months, IRA#1 27%, IRA#2 18%, QQQ 17%, SPY/RSP 10%, DWTR -5%
March portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – None, Invested in FSRBX.
IRA#2 – Sold FSRFX, FSRBX 03/28 – Invested in FSELX, FBIOX, FDCPX
QQQ – None – Invested in QQQ
SPY/RSP – NONE – Invested in RSP
DWTR – Sold DWTR 03/28 – Invested in cash

There are a couple of interesting articles at https://stockcharts.com/articles/. One from yesterday indicated the Nasdaq 100 trend model now has a short term, intermediate term, and long term buy signal. In another article from today, Gatis Rose finds several of Fidelity Select funds interesting: AirTransport, Automotive, Chemicals, Financial, Energy, and EnvironmentalAlternativeEnergy.

Larry Fink, CEO and Chairman of Blackrock which manages $5.4T in assets, said on Wall Street Week tonight that by analsing communications on the internet with word analysis Blackrock has found that when employees are happy with their company, the company stock does well. When employees are unhappy with their company, the company stock underperforms.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 90.50, 50 day MA of 90.50, a 200 day MA of 85.73, and a 7% stop loss is 85.81. This is not an investment to buy and hold but then there are no investments to buy and hold. The general rule of thumb is consider selling when an investment falls below its 50 week average and make sure you own nothing selling below both its 50 and 200 day moving average.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend Under Pressure” as of 21Mar. Not a time to invest.

My current investments:
IRA#1 – not invested – 100% cash
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 99.02, a sell price 95.96, a rank of 08, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 74.14)
SComputers has a price of 83.24, a sell price 80.07, a rank of of 02, and is a hold (ETF – PSI- current stoploss 38.85)
60% Cash
Not one of my top 20 funds has an improved deviation for the last two weeks. That is one of the reasons I am buying nothing.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
11.73 01-13 FSPTX 149.29 STechnology
10.59 02-14 FDCPX 83.24 SComputers
9.87 03-06 FHKCX 28.02 ChinaReqion
9.85 04-04 FDLSX 149.79 SLeisure
9.04 05-11 FOCPX 94.76 OTCPortfolio
8.96 06-17 FBIOX 195.90 SBiotechnology
8.88 07-06 FSEAX 35.92 EmergingAsia
8.87 08-42 FSELX 99.02 SSemiconductors
8.76 09-05 FSAGX 21.38 SGold
8.12 10-01 FSCSX 141.15 SSoftware&ITServices
8.07 11-03 FEMKX 25.80 EmergingMarkets
7.92 12-14 FSCHX 155.95 SChemicals
7.66 13-05 FLATX 21.97 LatinAmerica
7.65 14-04 FBGRX 75.65 BlueChipGrowth
7.57 15-01 FDSVX 28.67 Growth Discovery
7.54 16-01- FSDAX 137.01 SDefense&Aerospace
7.54 17-01 FNCMX 77.74 NasdaqCompositeIndex
7.47 18-09 FWRLX 9.27 SWireless
7.47 19-05 FEDDX 13.20 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
7.30 20-01 FCPGX 22.40 SmallCapGrowth
Last week:
14.12 01-04 FSAGX 22.33 SGold
11.14 02-13 FDCPX 83.19 SComputers
10.26 03-16 FBIOX 197.30 SBiotechnology
9.79 04-12 FSPTX 145.80 STechnology
9.58 05-05 FHKCX 27.80 ChinaReqion
8.90 06-05 FSEAX 35.76 EmergingAsia
8.05 07-10 FOCPX 93.45 OTCPortfolio
7.89 08-08 FWRLX 9.27 SWireless
7.40 09-04 FEDDX 13.14 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
7.24 10-03 FDLSX 145.46 SLeisure
7.23 11-02 FEMKX 25.49 EmergingMarkets
6.89 12-41 FSELX 96.77 SSemiconductors
6.81 13-01 FISMX 25.51 InternationalSmallCap
6.78 14-02 FTEMX 11.88 TotalEmergingMarkets
6.62 15-04 FLATX 21.67 LatinAmerica
6.57 16-13 FSCHX 153.36 SChemicals
6.50 17-01 FPBFX 29.32 PacificBasin
6.45 18-03 FBGRX 74.51 BlueChipGrowth
6.32 19-01 FSUTX 77.64 SUtilities
6.32 20-01 FPHAX 18.13 SPharmaceuticals

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
Feb17 1m+3% 3m10% 6m+3% 12m+36% 24m+0% 36m+15% 60m+59% 120m-4%
Mar17 1m-4% 3m-3% 6m-4% 12m+27% 24m-11% 36m+13% 60m+41% 120m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(10Apr17) from SBiotechnology(FBIOX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Feb17 1m+4% 3m+8% 6m+7% 12m21% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+18% 120m+31%
Mar17 1m-1% 3m+4% 6m+4% 12m+18% 24m+7% 36m+13% 60m+12% 120m+29%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

At the beginning of the year the projections for the 1st qtr GDP was 3+% – a good number. Now with the help of no quick tax cuts, no ACA replacement, etc. optimism is fading. The current projections for 1st qtr is 1+%. How will the market do with the economy barely improving?

There is an article on the “DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap April 13, 2017” at https://stockcharts.com/articles/ which says the “S&P 500 earnings results for 2016 Q4 are in, and the market is still grossly overvalued.” They also go on to state the intermediate term and long term trends are both bullish even though we are in the 7th week of a corrections.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 89.55, 50 day MA of 90.30, a 200 day MA of 85.45, and a 7% stop loss is 85.81. This is not an investment to buy and hold but then there are no investments to buy and hold. The general rule of thumb is consider selling when an investment falls below its to day moving average and make sure you own nothing selling below both its 50 and 200 day moving average.

Many years ago I decided to hold FSAGX (SGold) during a down market. It turns out I lost money. Seems when the market starts to go down every fund gets sold. FSAGX is the best fund going, THIS week.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend Under Pressure” as of 21Mar. Not a time to invest.

My current investments:
IRA#1 – not invested – 100% cash
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 103.87, a sell price 99.39, a rank of 03, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 74.14)
SComputers has a price of 85.38, a sell price 81.71, a rank of of 01, and is a hold (ETF – PSI- current stoploss 38.85)
60% cash

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
14.12 01-04 FSAGX 22.33 SGold
11.14 02-13 FDCPX 83.19 SComputers
10.26 03-16 FBIOX 197.30 SBiotechnology
9.79 04-12 FSPTX 145.80 STechnology
9.58 05-05 FHKCX 27.80 ChinaReqion
8.90 06-05 FSEAX 35.76 EmergingAsia
8.05 07-10 FOCPX 93.45 OTCPortfolio
7.89 08-08 FWRLX 9.27 SWireless
7.40 09-04 FEDDX 13.14 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
7.24 10-03 FDLSX 145.46 SLeisure
7.23 11-02 FEMKX 25.49 EmergingMarkets
6.89 12-41 FSELX 96.77 SSemiconductors
6.81 13-01 FISMX 25.51 InternationalSmallCap
6.78 14-02 FTEMX 11.88 TotalEmergingMarkets
6.62 15-04 FLATX 21.67 LatinAmerica
6.57 16-13 FSCHX 153.36 SChemicals
6.50 17-01 FPBFX 29.32 PacificBasin
6.45 18-03 FBGRX 74.51 BlueChipGrowth
6.32 19-01 FSUTX 77.64 SUtilities
6.32 20-01 FPHAX 18.13 SPharmaceuticals
Last week:
12.43 01-12 FDCPX 85.38 SComputers
11.86 02-11 FSPTX 152.73 STechnology
11.18 03-40 FSELX 103.87 SSemiconductors
10.79 04-03 FSAGX 21.56 SGold
10.57 05-04 FHKCX 27.91 ChinaReqion
10.36 06-15 FBIOX 196.40 SBiotechnology
10.31 07-12 FSCHX 164.66 SChemicals
9.26 08-09 FOCPX 94.10 OTCPortfolio
9.17 09-04 FSEAX 35.68 EmergingAsia
9.10 10-07 FWRLX 9.38 SWireless
8.60 11-02 FARNX 13.79 EventDrivenOpportunities
8.48 12-03 FLATX 21.97 LatinAmerica
8.23 13-03 FEDDX 13.19 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
7.98 14-02 FDLSX 145.91 SLeisure
7.76 15-02 FBGRX 75.17 BlueChipGrowth
7.71 16-08 FNCMX 77.31 NasdaqCompositeIndex
7.59 17-01 FEMKX 25.48 EmergingMarkets
7.38 18-09 FSLEX 24.09 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
7.35 19-01 FTEMX 11.90 TotalEmergingMarkets
7.14 20-01 FSCSX 142.51 SSoftware&ITServices

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
Feb17 1m+3% 3m10% 6m+3% 12m+36% 24m+0% 36m+15% 60m+59% 120m-4%
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+1% 12m+32% 24m+2% 36m+14% 60m+56% 120m-7%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(10Apr17) from SBiotechnology(FBIOX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Feb17 1m+4% 3m+8% 6m+7% 12m21% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+18% 120m+31%
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+0% 12m16% 24m+10% 36m+12% 60m+17% 120m+20%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

Fidelity’s incompetence struck again. Friday about 40 of Fidelity funds had a distribution and on Fidelity’s web site where it says “Distributions for Fidelity Funds Get information on the most recent dividends and capital gains for all funds managed by Fidelity.” there was NO current data. Last December the list was wrong on 09Dec, missing on 16Dec and 23Dec, and incomplete on 30Dec. In December I called twice each weekend and they never did fix it. This weekend only one call. The Fidelity reps to not have a clue about what is listed in their web site about their funds and are of NO help. They claim they will report it, but after the first call last December it only got worse.

“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com is no more. They changed when and how they produce reports. There is an article on the “DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap April 7, 2017” at https://stockcharts.com/articles/ which says the intermediate and long term market trend is still bullish.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 90.50, 50 day MA of 90.12, a 200 day MA of 85.20, and a 7% stop loss is 85.81. This is not an investment to buy and hold but then there are no investments to buy and hold.
On the NYSE from a high of 72%+ in Feb, the number of stocks showing bullish action has fallen to 65%. On the Nasdaq the number has fallen from 67% to 60%.
This week on the Macro Voices podcast, Juliette Declercq indicated the Trump bump has run its course. The latest market action seems to indicate she is right.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend Under Pressure” as of 21Mar. Not a time to invest.

My current investments:
IRA#1 – not invested – 100% cash
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 103.87, a sell price 99.39, a rank of 03, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 74.14)
SBiotechnology has a price of 196.40, a sell price 197.59, a rank of 06, and is a SELL. (ETF – XBI – current stoploss 67.26)
SComputers has a price of 85.38, a sell price 81.71, a rank of of 01, and is a hold (ETF – PSI- current stoploss 38.85)
40% cash – 60% cash after Monday.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell SBiotechnology

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
12.43 01-12 FDCPX 85.38 SComputers
11.86 02-11 FSPTX 152.73 STechnology
11.18 03-40 FSELX 103.87 SSemiconductors
10.79 04-03 FSAGX 21.56 SGold
10.57 05-04 FHKCX 27.91 ChinaReqion
10.36 06-15 FBIOX 196.40 SBiotechnology
10.31 07-12 FSCHX 164.66 SChemicals
9.26 08-09 FOCPX 94.10 OTCPortfolio
9.17 09-04 FSEAX 35.68 EmergingAsia
9.10 10-07 FWRLX 9.38 SWireless
8.60 11-02 FARNX 13.79 EventDrivenOpportunities
8.48 12-03 FLATX 21.97 LatinAmerica
8.23 13-03 FEDDX 13.19 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
7.98 14-02 FDLSX 145.91 SLeisure
7.76 15-02 FBGRX 75.17 BlueChipGrowth
7.71 16-08 FNCMX 77.31 NasdaqCompositeIndex
7.59 17-01 FEMKX 25.48 EmergingMarkets
7.38 18-09 FSLEX 24.09 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
7.35 19-01 FTEMX 11.90 TotalEmergingMarkets
7.14 20-01 FSCSX 142.51 SSoftware&ITServices
Last week:
14.01 01-11 FDCPX 86.01 SComputers
13.86 02-14 FBIOX 201.53 SBiotechnology
12.65 03-39 FSELX 104.62 SSemiconductors
12.61 04-10 FSPTX 152.79 STechnology
11.32 05-11 FSCHX 165.26 SChemicals
10.09 06-06 FWRLX 9.42 SWireless
9.87 07-08 FOCPX 94.16 OTCPortfolio
9.41 08-01 FARNX 13.83 EventDrivenOpportunities
9.31 09-03 FHKCX 27.44 ChinaReqion
8.81 10-01 FDLSX 146.56 SLeisure Portfolio Yes
8.75 11-07 FNCMX 77.74 NasdaqCompositeIndex
8.65 12-03 FSEAX 35.34 EmergingAsia
8.63 13-02 FSAGX 21.02 SGold
8.62 14-02 FLATX 21.90 LatinAmerica
8.51 15-20 FSHCX 88.66 SHealthCareServices
8.47 16-08 FSLEX 24.24 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
8.46 17-02 FEDDX 13.16 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
8.42 18-01 FBGRX 75.32 BlueChipGrowth
8.22 19-01 FSRBX 32.25 SBanking
8.13 20-01 FCPGX 22.35 SmallCapGrowth

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
Feb17 1m+3% 3m10% 6m+3% 12m+36% 24m+0% 36m+15% 60m+59% 120m-4%
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+1% 12m+32% 24m+2% 36m+14% 60m+56% 120m-7%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(10Apr17) from SBiotechnology(FBIOX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Feb17 1m+4% 3m+8% 6m+7% 12m21% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+18% 120m+31%
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+0% 12m16% 24m+10% 36m+12% 60m+17% 120m+20%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

A nice week – not a good week. The various emerging market funds retreated and the rest of the funds increased a little. Only two funds are on the potential buy list out of the 110 I follow – InternationalDiscovery #83 and SLeasure #10.
One of the more interesting podcasts I’ve found is Macro Voices. They present an interesting view aspects of the market. It is well worth a listen.

“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com:
On Friday, 24Mar, the short term outlook is neutral to bearish, intermediate term outlook is bearish, long term outlook bullish.
On Friday, 31Mar, the short term outlook is neutral to bullish, intermediate term outlook is neutral, long term outlook bullish.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 90.82, 50 day MA of 89.90, a 200 day MA of 84.92, and a 7% stop loss is 85.81. This is not an investment to buy and hold but then there are no investments to buy and hold.
Over the last 3 months, SPY (capitalization weighted S&P500) has outperformed RPS (equal weighted S&P500). This is a little ominous because it suggests the larger 500 are performing better than the average 500. Often the leading stocks continue to go up while the average stocks go down and eventually the leading stocks follow. On the NYSE from a high of 72%+ in Feb, the number of stocks showing bullish action has fallen to 65%. On the Nasdaq the number has fallen from 67% to 61%. Just something to watch.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend Under Pressure” as of 21Mar. Not a time to invest.

My current investments:
IRA#1 – not invested – 100% cash
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 104.62, a sell price 99.39, a rank of 03, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 74.14)
SBiotechnology has a price of 201.53, a sell price 197.59, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – XBI – current stoploss 67.26)
SComputers has a price of 56.01, a sell price 81.71, a rank of of 01, and is a hold (ETF – PSI- current stoploss 38.85)
60% mutual funds – 40% cash

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2
weeks).
This week:
14.01 01-11 FDCPX 86.01 SComputers
13.86 02-14 FBIOX 201.53 SBiotechnology
12.65 03-39 FSELX 104.62 SSemiconductors
12.61 04-10 FSPTX 152.79 STechnology
11.32 05-11 FSCHX 165.26 SChemicals
10.09 06-06 FWRLX 9.42 SWireless
9.87 07-08 FOCPX 94.16 OTCPortfolio
9.41 08-01 FARNX 13.83 EventDrivenOpportunities
9.31 09-03 FHKCX 27.44 ChinaReqion
8.81 10-01 FDLSX 146.56 SLeisure Portfolio Yes
8.75 11-07 FNCMX 77.74 NasdaqCompositeIndex
8.65 12-03 FSEAX 35.34 EmergingAsia
8.63 13-02 FSAGX 21.02 SGold
8.62 14-02 FLATX 21.90 LatinAmerica
8.51 15-20 FSHCX 88.66 SHealthCareServices
8.47 16-08 FSLEX 24.24 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
8.46 17-02 FEDDX 13.16 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
8.42 18-01 FBGRX 75.32 BlueChipGrowth
8.22 19-01 FSRBX 32.25 SBanking
8.13 20-01 FCPGX 22.35 SmallCapGrowth
Last week:
13.75 01-13 FBIOX 199.87 SBiotechnology
12.36 02-10 FDCPX 84.14 SComputers
12.33 03-38 FSELX 103.63 SSemiconductors
12.28 04-09 FSPTX 151.34 STechnology
10.57 05-02 FHKCX 27.62 ChinaReqion Yes
10.33 06-05 FWRLX 9.39 SWireless
10.16 07-01 FSAGX 21.22 SGold
9.46 08-02 FSEAX 35.44 EmergingAsia Yes
9.35 09-10 FSCHX 161.36 SChemicals
9.11 10-01 FEMEX 8.94 EmergingEMEA Yes
8.61 11-01 FEDDX 13.12 EmergingMarketsDiscovery Yes
8.32 12-01 FEMKX 25.45 EmergingMarkets Yes
8.28 13-01 FTEMX 11.91 TotalEmergingMarkets Yes
8.25 14-07 FOCPX 92.29 OTCPortfolio
8.24 15-19 FSHCX 88.04 SHealthCareServices
8.14 16-07 FSLEX 24.06 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
8.01 17-01 FLATX 21.68 LatinAmerica
7.72 18-01 FPEMX 9.58 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC Yes
7.69 19-06 FNCMX 76.63 NasdaqCompositeIndex
7.68 20-01 FSDCX 34.39 SCommunicationsEquipment

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
Feb17 1m+3% 3m10% 6m+3% 12m+36% 24m+0% 36m+15% 60m+59% 120m-4%
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+1% 12m+32% 24m+2% 36m+14% 60m+56% 120m-7%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – SBiotechnology(FBIOX)(16Jan17) from SComputers(FDCPX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Feb17 1m+4% 3m+8% 6m+7% 12m21% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+18% 120m+31%
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+0% 12m16% 24m+10% 36m+12% 60m+17% 120m+20%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

Returns for February IRA#1 3%, IRA#2 4%, QQQ 4%, SPY/RSP 3%, DWTR 1%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 10%, IRA#2 8%, QQQ 11%, SPY/RSP 6%, DWTR 2%.
For the last 6 months, IRA#1 3%, IRA#2 7%, QQQ 12%, SPY/RSP 9%, DWTR -5%.
For the last 12 months, IRA#1 36%, IRA#2 21%, QQQ 19%, SPY/RSP 14%, DWTR 0%
December portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – None, Invested in FSRBX.
IRA#2 – Purchased FDCPX 02/13 – Invested in FSRFX, FSRBX, FSELX, FBIOX, FDCPX
QQQ – None – Invested in QQQ
SPY/RSP – NONE – Invested in RSP
DWTR – NONE – Invested in DWTR

“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com: (https://stockcharts.com/webinars/archives/)
On Friday, 17Mar, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is neutral to bearish, long term outlook bullish.
On Friday, 17Mar, the short term outlook is neutral to bearish, intermediate term outlook is bearish, long term outlook bullish.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 89.81, 50 day MA of 89.60, a 200 day MA of 84.54, and a 7% stop loss is 85.81. This is not an investment to buy and hold but then there are no investments to buy and hold.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend Under Pressure” as of 21Mar. Not a time to invest.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 31.64, a sell price 32.40, a rank of 32, and is a sell. (ETF – KRE- stopped out)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 103.63, a sell price 98.62, a rank of 03, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 73.94)
STransportation has a price of 88.42, a sell price 89.59, a rank of 107, and is a sell. (ETF – XTN – stopped out)
SBiotechnology has a price of 199.87, a sell price 197.59, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XBI – current stoploss 67.26)
SComputers has a price of 84.14, a sell price 80.48, a rank of of 02, and is a hold (ETF – PSI- current stoploss 38.71)
Two of my funds and two of my ETFs are sells. The ETFs were stopped out when the stoploss was hit. Stoplosses cannot be used with mutual funds. Since I compute my relative strength numbers each weekend, the funds did not become sells until this weekend. It it turs out this is just a minor blip, I can always buy the funds again. Reviewing the top 20 funds this week indicates various foreign funds are doing better.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Sell SBanking
IRA #2 – Sell SBanking and STransportation

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
13.75 01-13 FBIOX 199.87 SBiotechnology
12.36 02-10 FDCPX 84.14 SComputers
12.33 03-38 FSELX 103.63 SSemiconductors
12.28 04-09 FSPTX 151.34 STechnology
10.57 05-02 FHKCX 27.62 ChinaReqion Yes
10.33 06-05 FWRLX 9.39 SWireless
10.16 07-01 FSAGX 21.22 SGold
9.46 08-02 FSEAX 35.44 EmergingAsia Yes
9.35 09-10 FSCHX 161.36 SChemicals
9.11 10-01 FEMEX 8.94 EmergingEMEA Yes
8.61 11-01 FEDDX 13.12 EmergingMarketsDiscovery Yes
8.32 12-01 FEMKX 25.45 EmergingMarkets Yes
8.28 13-01 FTEMX 11.91 TotalEmergingMarkets Yes
8.25 14-07 FOCPX 92.29 OTCPortfolio
8.24 15-19 FSHCX 88.04 SHealthCareServices
8.14 16-07 FSLEX 24.06 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
8.01 17-01 FLATX 21.68 LatinAmerica
7.72 18-01 FPEMX 9.58 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC Yes
7.69 19-06 FNCMX 76.63 NasdaqCompositeIndex
7.68 20-01 FSDCX 34.39 SCommunicationsEquipment
Last week:
17.40 01-12 FBIOX 204.79 SBiotechnology
13.87 02-09 FDCPX 84.72 SComputers
13.28 03-08 FSPTX 151.70 STechnology
13.26 04-37 FSELX 103.81 SSemiconductors
12.82 05-22 FSRBX 33.36 SBanking
12.27 06-09 FSCHX 164.86 SChemicals
11.05 07-04 FWRLX 9.40 SWireless
11.04 08-18 FSHCX 89.93 SHealthCareServices
10.39 09-01 FHKCX 27.42 ChinaReqion
10.33 10-05 FSDAX 139.13 SDefense&Aerospace
10.05 11-06 FSLEX 24.38 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
9.97 12-19 FSLBX 71.48 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
9.87 13-19 FIDSX 102.88 SFinancialServices
9.79 14-06 FOCPX 93.20 OTCPortfolio
9.47 15-05 FNCMX 77.58 NasdaqCompositeIndex
9.41 16-01 FCPGX 22.44 SmallCapGrowth
9.36 17-02 FSCSX 143.74 SSoftware&ITServices
9.23 18-01 FSEAX 35.19 EmergingAsia
9.10 19-19 FARNX 13.67 EventDrivenOpportunities
9.02 20-01 FDSVX 28.51 Growth Discovery

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
Feb17 1m+3% 3m10% 6m+3% 12m+36% 24m+0% 36m+15% 60m+59% 120m-4%
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+1% 12m+32% 24m+2% 36m+14% 60m+56% 120m-7%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – SBiotechnology(FBIOX)(16Jan17) from SComputers(FDCPX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Feb17 1m+4% 3m+8% 6m+7% 12m21% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+18% 120m+31%
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+0% 12m16% 24m+10% 36m+12% 60m+17% 120m+20%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

Unlike last week, where none of the Fidelity funds I follow had an improving deviation over the last two weeks, there was ONE fund, SMultimedia, which had improving numbers. It is the 45th best fund on my list. One fund out of 113 is not an indication of a strong market.

The US hit the national debt limit this week. The treasury has under 200B available to spend and is spending about 98B a month. We will soon be in another raise the limit or “shutdown” the government political circus which always caused concern in the stock market. The last time the government “shutdown” it’s percentage of “shutdown” was smaller than the average number of children missing school in a day in the city of New York. Nevertheless the “shutdown” news can hurt the market.

“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com: (https://stockcharts.com/webinars/archives/)
On Friday, 03Mar, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is neutral to bullish, long term outlook bullish.
On Friday, 10Mar, the short term outlook is neutral to bearish, intermediate term outlook is neutral to bearish, long term outlook bullish.
On Friday, 17Mar, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is neutral to bearish, long term outlook bullish.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 91.06, 50 day MA of 89.36, a 200 day MA of 84.40, and a 7% stop loss is 85.81. This is not an investment to buy and hold but then there are no investments to buy and hold.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” as of 08Dec. Time to invest. However the market still seems to be in a pause mode. Maybe a pause before a further move up, or maybe a top. I do not know, but would still not be buying anything this week.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 33.36, a sell price 32.40, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – KRE- current stoploss 55.20)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 103.81, a sell price 98.62, a rank of 04, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 73.48)
STransportation has a price of 90.55, a sell price 89.59, a rank of 98, and is a hold until I decide to buy something. (ETF – XTN – current stoploss 52.76)
SBiotechnology has a price of 204.79, a sell price 197.59, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XBI – current stoploss 67.26)
SComputers has a price of 84.72, a sell price 80.48, a rank of of 02, and is a hold (ETF – PSI- current stoploss 38.47)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
17.40 01-12 FBIOX 204.79 SBiotechnology
13.87 02-09 FDCPX 84.72 SComputers
13.28 03-08 FSPTX 151.70 STechnology
13.26 04-37 FSELX 103.81 SSemiconductors
12.82 05-22 FSRBX 33.36 SBanking
12.27 06-09 FSCHX 164.86 SChemicals
11.05 07-04 FWRLX 9.40 SWireless
11.04 08-18 FSHCX 89.93 SHealthCareServices
10.39 09-01 FHKCX 27.42 ChinaReqion
10.33 10-05 FSDAX 139.13 SDefense&Aerospace
10.05 11-06 FSLEX 24.38 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
9.97 12-19 FSLBX 71.48 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
9.87 13-19 FIDSX 102.88 SFinancialServices
9.79 14-06 FOCPX 93.20 OTCPortfolio
9.47 15-05 FNCMX 77.58 NasdaqCompositeIndex
9.41 16-01 FCPGX 22.44 SmallCapGrowth
9.36 17-02 FSCSX 143.74 SSoftware&ITServices
9.23 18-01 FSEAX 35.19 EmergingAsia
9.10 19-19 FARNX 13.67 EventDrivenOpportunities
9.02 20-01 FDSVX 28.51 Growth Discovery
Last week:
19.49 01-11 FBIOX 206.52 SBiotechnology
14.75 02-21 FSRBX 33.70 SBanking
12.98 03-36 FSELX 102.83 SSemiconductors
12.94 04-08 FDCPX 83.41 SComputers
11.50 05-17 FSHCX 89.78 SHealthCareServices
11.42 06-07 FSPTX 148.16 STechnology
11.19 07-18 FIDSX 103.57 SFinancialServices
11.16 08-08 FSCHX 162.18 SChemicals
10.65 09-18 FSLBX 71.54 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
9.58 10-04 FSDAX 137.43 SDefense&Aerospace
9.45 11-05 FOCPX 92.43 OTCPortfolio
9.07 12-18 FARNX 13.60 EventDrivenOpportunities
8.96 13-03 FWRLX 9.17 SWireless
8.83 14-04 FNCMX 76.74 NasdaqCompositeIndex
8.68 15-01 FSCSX 142.14 SSoftware&ITServices
8.37 16-03 FBCVX 18.45 BlueChipValue
8.32 17-05 FSLEX 23.87 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
8.26 18-02 FSPCX 80.47 SInsurance
8.21 19-01 FSMEX 41.81 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
8.18 20-01 FSDCX 34.25 SCommunicationsEquipment

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+1% 12m+32% 24m+2% 36m+14% 60m+56% 120m-7%
Dec16 1m+6% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+24% 24m+14% 36m+14% 60m+65% 120m-6%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – SBiotechnology(FBIOX)(16Jan17) from SComputers(FDCPX)
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+0% 12m16% 24m+10% 36m+12% 60m+17% 120m+20%
Dec16 1m+2% 3m-0% 6m+3% 12m+9% 24m+8% 36m+7% 60m+21% 120m+18%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

I am following 114 Fidelity funds and slowly eliminating poor performing funds since I feel 100 funds is enough. However, this week for the first time I remember, there are NO funds which have an improving deviation over the last two weeks. My measure of deviation is the current fund price as a percentage above the fund’s exponentially smoothed 39 week moving  average. The highest deviation this week is SBiotechnology at 19.49% and the lowest is SEnergyService at 0.56%. The last three week deviations for SBiotechology are 15.21% two weeks ago, 21.58% last week, and 19.49% now – not an increasing deviation trend. I do not buy funds unless they have two weeks of improving deviations and are in my top 20 funds list.

“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com: (https://stockcharts.com/webinars/archives/)
On Wednesday, 22Feb, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is bullish, long term outlook bullish.
On Friday, 03Mar, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is neutral to bullish, long term outlook bullish.
On Friday, 10Mar, the short term outlook is neutral to bearish, intermediate term outlook is neutral to bearish, long term outlook bullish.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 90.91, 50 day MA of 89.30, a 200 day MA of 84.44, and a 7% stop loss is 85.81. This is not an investment to buy and hold.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” as of 08Dec. Time to invest. However after this week everything seems to be in pause mode. Maybe a pause before a further move up, or maybe a top. I do not know, but would not be buying anything this week.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 33.70, a sell price 32.40, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – KRE- current stoploss 55.20)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 102.83, a sell price 97.69, a rank of 03, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 71.43)
STransportation has a price of 90.84, a sell price 89.59, a rank of 53, and is a hold until I decide to buy something. (ETF – XTN – current stoploss 52.76)
SBiotechnology has a price of 206.52, a sell price 197.59, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XBI – current stoploss 66.50)
SComputers has a price of 83.41, a sell price 79.53, a rank of of 04, and is a Hold (ETF – PSI- current stoploss 37.56)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
19.49 01-11 FBIOX 206.52 SBiotechnology
14.75 02-21 FSRBX 33.70 SBanking
12.98 03-36 FSELX 102.83 SSemiconductors
12.94 04-08 FDCPX 83.41 SComputers
11.50 05-17 FSHCX 89.78 SHealthCareServices
11.42 06-07 FSPTX 148.16 STechnology
11.19 07-18 FIDSX 103.57 SFinancialServices
11.16 08-08 FSCHX 162.18 SChemicals
10.65 09-18 FSLBX 71.54 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
9.58 10-04 FSDAX 137.43 SDefense&Aerospace
9.45 11-05 FOCPX 92.43 OTCPortfolio
9.07 12-18 FARNX 13.60 EventDrivenOpportunities
8.96 13-03 FWRLX 9.17 SWireless
8.83 14-04 FNCMX 76.74 NasdaqCompositeIndex
8.68 15-01 FSCSX 142.14 SSoftware&ITServices
8.37 16-03 FBCVX 18.45 BlueChipValue
8.32 17-05 FSLEX 23.87 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
8.26 18-02 FSPCX 80.47 SInsurance
8.21 19-01 FSMEX 41.81 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
8.18 20-01 FSDCX 34.25 SCommunicationsEquipment
Last week:
21.58 01-10 FBIOX 207.99 SBiotechnology
17.02 02-20 FSRBX 34.10 SBanking
14.13 03-07 FDCPX 83.72 SComputers
13.46 04-17 FSHCX 90.80 SHealthCareServices Yes
13.38 05-07 FSCHX 164.44 SChemicals
13.06 06-35 FSELX 102.20 SSemiconductors
12.71 07-17 FIDSX 104.37 SFinancialServices
12.04 08-06 FSPTX 148.09 STechnology
12.00 09-17 FSLBX 72.01 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
11.77 10-17 FARNX 13.87 EventDrivenOpportunities
11.01 11-03 FSDAX 138.53 SDefense&Aerospace
10.80 12-04 FOCPX 93.10 OTCPortfolio
10.03 13-02 FBCVX 18.65 BlueChipValue
9.96 14-02 FWRLX 9.21 SWireless Yes
9.92 15-03 FNCMX 77.15 NasdaqCompositeIndex
9.88 16-01 FSPCX 81.32 SInsurance Yes
9.77 17-18 FSRFX 93.66 STransportation
9.71 18-04 FSLEX 24.07 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
9.70 19-05 FSVLX 14.03 SConsumerFinance
9.64 20-01 FLCSX 31.15 LargeCapStock

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+1% 12m+32% 24m+2% 36m+14% 60m+56% 120m-7%
Dec16 1m+6% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+24% 24m+14% 36m+14% 60m+65% 120m-6%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – SBiotechnology(FBIOX)(16Jan17) from SComputers(FDCPX)
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+0% 12m16% 24m+10% 36m+12% 60m+17% 120m+20%
Dec16 1m+2% 3m-0% 6m+3% 12m+9% 24m+8% 36m+7% 60m+21% 120m+18%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

The market continues up. John Pugliano produces a Wealthsteading podcast and lately produced a YouTube video on How to chart a Simple Moving Average with Yahoo Finance. He gets a little to deep for me, but a 50, 200, and maybe a 100 moving average are worth watching. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgWctQ8jfKU Yahoo has some problems with charting total return – it does it wrong. If a fund produces a dividend of 10%, Yahoo will show a price decline of 10% – correct if you just chart the price, but since you now own 10% more shares, the dividend adjusted price should be plotted. Yahoo finance response is also slow. I switched to Google Finance, but their reported prices are a day or more behind on some ETF prices.

“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com: (https://stockcharts.com/webinars/archives/)
On Friday, 17Feb, the short term outlook is bearish, intermediate term outlook is bullish, long term outlook bullish.
On Wednesday, 22Feb, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is bullish, long term outlook bullish.
On Friday, 03Mar, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is neutral to bullish, long term outlook bullish

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 91.66, 50 day MA of 88.98, a 200 day MA of 84.12, and a 7% stop loss is 85.81. This is not an investment to buy and hold.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” as of 08Dec. Time to invest. I am fully invested so will buy nothing, but will switch an investment when one I own crosses a sell price.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 34.10, a sell price 32.40, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – KRE- current stoploss 55.20)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 102.20, a sell price 97.09, a rank of 06, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 71.43)
STransportation has a price of 93.66, a sell price 89.59, a rank of 17, and is a hold. (ETF – XTN – current stoploss 52.76)
SBiotechnology has a price of 207.99, a sell price 197.59, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XBI – current stoploss 66.47)
SComputers has a price of 83.72, a sell price 79.53, a rank of of 03, and is a Hold (ETF – PSI- current stoploss 37.56)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
21.58 01-10 FBIOX 207.99 SBiotechnology
17.02 02-20 FSRBX 34.10 SBanking
14.13 03-07 FDCPX 83.72 SComputers
13.46 04-17 FSHCX 90.80 SHealthCareServices Yes
13.38 05-07 FSCHX 164.44 SChemicals
13.06 06-35 FSELX 102.20 SSemiconductors
12.71 07-17 FIDSX 104.37 SFinancialServices
12.04 08-06 FSPTX 148.09 STechnology
12.00 09-17 FSLBX 72.01 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
11.77 10-17 FARNX 13.87 EventDrivenOpportunities
11.01 11-03 FSDAX 138.53 SDefense&Aerospace
10.80 12-04 FOCPX 93.10 OTCPortfolio
10.03 13-02 FBCVX 18.65 BlueChipValue
9.96 14-02 FWRLX 9.21 SWireless Yes
9.92 15-03 FNCMX 77.15 NasdaqCompositeIndex
9.88 16-01 FSPCX 81.32 SInsurance Yes
9.77 17-18 FSRFX 93.66 STransportation
9.71 18-04 FSLEX 24.07 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
9.70 19-05 FSVLX 14.03 SConsumerFinance
9.64 20-01 FLCSX 31.15 LargeCapStock
Last week:
16.52 01-19 FSRBX 33.65 SBanking
16.21 02-09 FBIOX 196.54 SBiotechnology
14.16 03-06 FDCPX 83.12 SComputers Yes
13.56 04-06 FSCHX 163.54 SChemicals Yes
13.48 05-34 FSELX 101.87 SSemiconductors
13.11 06-16 FARNX 13.95 EventDrivenOpportunities
12.69 07-16 FSHCX 89.55 SHealthCareServices Yes
12.39 08-05 FSPTX 147.61 STechnology
12.34 09-16 FSLBX 71.77 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
12.29 10-16 FIDSX 103.28 SFinancialServices
10.88 11-03 FOCPX 92.64 OTCPortfolio
10.71 12-04 FSAGX 22.22 SGold
10.64 13-02 FSDAX 137.26 SDefense&Aerospace
10.34 14-04 FSVLX 14.04 SConsumerFinance
9.98 15-02 FNCMX 76.79 NasdaqCompositeIndex
9.91 16-03 FSLEX 23.99 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
9.67 17-01 FSCSX 142.11 SSoftware&ITServices
9.6 18-01 FBCVX 18.48 BlueChipValue
9.58 19-01 FWRLX 9.13 SWireless Yes
9.57 20-17 FSRFX 93.01 STransportation

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+1% 12m+32% 24m+2% 36m+14% 60m+56% 120m-7%
Dec16 1m+6% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+24% 24m+14% 36m+14% 60m+65% 120m-6%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – SBiotechnology(FBIOX)(16Jan17) from SComputers(FDCPX)
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+0% 12m16% 24m+10% 36m+12% 60m+17% 120m+20%
Dec16 1m+2% 3m-0% 6m+3% 12m+9% 24m+8% 36m+7% 60m+21% 120m+18%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

The market continues up. The continued increase in the DJIA has been as great as it was in 1987. My suggestion is that you be ready to sell. The crash on 19Oct87 took the DJIA down 22.6%. At that time I had been using 10% as a sell limit on my mutual fund investments. I changed to use a 5% limit because if I had been using 5%, I would have not been invested on the 22.6% down day. I would have been in cash.

In January IRA#1 1%, IRA#2 1%, QQQ 5%, SPY/RSP 2%, DWTR 2%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 8%, IRA#2 6%, QQQ 7%, SPY/RSP 8%, DWTR 2%.
For the last 6 months, IRA#1 1%, IRA#2 0%, QQQ 8%, SPY/RSP 5%, DWTR -10%.
For the last 12 months, IRA#1 32%, IRA#2 16%, QQQ 14%, SPY/RSP 11%, DWTR 0%
December portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – None, Invested in FSRBX.
IRA#2 – Sold FDCPX Purchased FBIOX 01/17 – Invested in FSRFX, FSRBX, FSELX, FBIOX, FSNGX
QQQ – None – Invested in QQQ
SPY/RSP – NONE – Invested in RSP
DWTR – NONE – Invested in DWTR

“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com: (https://stockcharts.com/webinars/archives/)
On Friday, 10Feb, the short term outlook is neutral to bearish, intermediate term outlook is bullish, long term outlook bullish.
On Friday, 17Feb, the short term outlook is bearish, intermediate term outlook is bullish, long term outlook bullish.
On Friday, 22Feb, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is bullish, long term outlook bullish.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 91.41, 50 day MA of 88.58, a 200 day MA of 83.78, and a 7% stop loss is 85.13. This is not an investment to buy and hold.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” as of 08Dec. Time to invest. I am fully invested so will buy nothing, but will switch an investment when one I own crosses a sell price.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 33.65, a sell price 32.07, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – KRE- current stoploss 53.89)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 101.87, a sell price 96.78, a rank of 05, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 71.43)
STransportation has a price of 93.01, a sell price 89.59, a rank of 20, and is a hold. (ETF – XTN – current stoploss 52.76)
SBiotechnology has a price of 196.54, a sell price 190.35, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – XBI – current stoploss 64.59)
SComputers has a price of 83.12, a sell price 78.96, a rank of of 03, and is a Hold (ETF – PSI- current stoploss 37.56)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
16.52 01-19 FSRBX 33.65 SBanking
16.21 02-09 FBIOX 196.54 SBiotechnology
14.16 03-06 FDCPX 83.12 SComputers Yes
13.56 04-06 FSCHX 163.54 SChemicals Yes
13.48 05-34 FSELX 101.87 SSemiconductors
13.11 06-16 FARNX 13.95 EventDrivenOpportunities
12.69 07-16 FSHCX 89.55 SHealthCareServices Yes
12.39 08-05 FSPTX 147.61 STechnology
12.34 09-16 FSLBX 71.77 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
12.29 10-16 FIDSX 103.28 SFinancialServices
10.88 11-03 FOCPX 92.64 OTCPortfolio
10.71 12-04 FSAGX 22.22 SGold
10.64 13-02 FSDAX 137.26 SDefense&Aerospace
10.34 14-04 FSVLX 14.04 SConsumerFinance
9.98 15-02 FNCMX 76.79 NasdaqCompositeIndex
9.91 16-03 FSLEX 23.99 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
9.67 17-01 FSCSX 142.11 SSoftware&ITServices
9.6 18-01 FBCVX 18.48 BlueChipValue
9.58 19-01 FWRLX 9.13 SWireless Yes
9.57 20-17 FSRFX 93.01 STransportation
Last week:
19.50 01-08 FBIOX 200.37 SBiotechnology Yes
17.92 02-18 FSRBX 33.76 SBanking
14.80 03-15 FARNX 14.06 EventDrivenOpportunities
14.75 04-03 FSAGX 22.90 SGold
13.98 05-33 FSELX 101.60 SSemiconductors
13.46 06-05 FDCPX 81.99 SComputers Yes
13.20 07-15 FSLBX 71.85 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
12.96 08-15 FIDSX 103.23 SFinancialServices
12.88 09-05 FSCHX 161.41 SChemicals
12.80 10-04 FSPTX 147.19 STechnology Yes
12.17 11-02 FOCPX 93.18 OTCPortfolio Yes
10.93 12-16 FSRFX 93.69 STransportation Yes
10.88 13-15 FSHCX 87.52 SHealthCareServices
10.84 14-01 FSDAX 136.74 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
10.47 15-03 FSVLX 13.98 SConsumerFinance Yes
10.47 16-10 FCYIX 34.01 SIndustrials Yes
10.44 17-01 FNCMX 76.70 NasdaqCompositeIndex Yes
10.43 18-01 FCPGX 22.23 SmallCapGrowth Yes
10.11 19-14 FCPEX 14.51 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
9.98 20-02 FSLEX 23.88 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy Yes

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+1% 12m+32% 24m+2% 36m+14% 60m+56% 120m-7%
Dec16 1m+6% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+24% 24m+14% 36m+14% 60m+65% 120m-6%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – SBiotechnology(FBIOX)(16Jan17) from SComputers(FDCPX)
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+0% 12m16% 24m+10% 36m+12% 60m+17% 120m+20%
Dec16 1m+2% 3m-0% 6m+3% 12m+9% 24m+8% 36m+7% 60m+21% 120m+18%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

It was a good week.

An interesting way to save a little taxes in the future was presented in Kiplinger. Take a look at it, it may help you.
http://www.kiplinger.com/article/retirement/T046-C032-S014-how-to-save-big-on-taxes-in-the-goldilocks-zone.html

I stumbled upon another podcast this last week. macrovoices.com is the website which contains the podcast and also a text of the interview. The 09Feb16 a detailed interview with Jim Rogers was presented. If you listen to the podcast, the interview starts at 12 minutes into the presentation. The text presents just the interview without the other market information.

“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com: (https://stockcharts.com/webinars/archives/)
On Friday, 10Feb, the short term outlook is neutral to bearish, intermediate term outlook is bullish, long term outlook bullish.
On Friday, 17Feb, the short term outlook is bearish, intermediate term outlook is bullish, long term outlook bullish.
The report did note that the value of the dollar may have peaked.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 90.90, 50 day MA of 88.31, a 200 day MA of 83.52, and a 7% stop loss is 84.58. This is not an investment to buy and hold.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” as of 08Dec. Time to invest. I am fully invested so will buy nothing, but will switch an investment when one I own crosses a sell price.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 33.76, a sell price 32.07, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – KRE- current stoploss 53.89)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 101.60, a sell price 96.52, a rank of 05, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 71.43)
STransportation has a price of 92.08, a sell price 89.59, a rank of 15, and is a hold. (ETF – XTN – current stoploss 52.76)
SBiotechnology has a price of 200.37, a sell price 190.35, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XBI – current stoploss 64.59)
SComputers has a price of 81.99, a sell price 77.89, a rank of of 06, and is a Hold (ETF – PSI- current stoploss 36.95)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
19.50 01-08 FBIOX 200.37 SBiotechnology Yes
17.92 02-18 FSRBX 33.76 SBanking
14.80 03-15 FARNX 14.06 EventDrivenOpportunities
14.75 04-03 FSAGX 22.90 SGold
13.98 05-33 FSELX 101.60 SSemiconductors
13.46 06-05 FDCPX 81.99 SComputers Yes
13.20 07-15 FSLBX 71.85 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
12.96 08-15 FIDSX 103.23 SFinancialServices
12.88 09-05 FSCHX 161.41 SChemicals
12.80 10-04 FSPTX 147.19 STechnology Yes
12.17 11-02 FOCPX 93.18 OTCPortfolio Yes
10.93 12-16 FSRFX 93.69 STransportation Yes
10.88 13-15 FSHCX 87.52 SHealthCareServices
10.84 14-01 FSDAX 136.74 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
10.47 15-03 FSVLX 13.98 SConsumerFinance Yes
10.47 16-10 FCYIX 34.01 SIndustrials Yes
10.44 17-01 FNCMX 76.70 NasdaqCompositeIndex Yes
10.43 18-01 FCPGX 22.23 SmallCapGrowth Yes
10.11 19-14 FCPEX 14.51 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
9.98 20-02 FSLEX 23.88 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy Yes
Last week:
16.36 01-07 FBIOX 193.11 SBiotechnology Yes
15.90 02-02 FSAGX 22.95 SGold
15.59 03-17 FSRBX 32.78 SBanking
13.56 04-14 FARNX 13.80 EventDrivenOpportunities
12.72 05-04 FDCPX 80.88 SComputers Yes
11.72 06-03 FSPTX 144.80 STechnology Yes
11.49 07-32 FSELX 98.65 SSemiconductors
11.04 08-14 FSLBX 69.99 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
10.93 09-04 FSCHX 157.54 SChemicals
10.88 10-14 FIDSX 100.64 SFinancialServices
10.59 11-11 FSESX 56.09 SEnergyService
10.59 12-14 FSHCX 86.79 SHealthCareServices
9.86 13-13 FCPEX 14.40 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
9.68 14-01 FOCPX 90.53 OTCPortfolio
9.66 15-15 FSRFX 92.08 STransportation
9.26 16-02 FSVLX 13.75 SConsumerFinance Yes
9.13 17-06 FFGCX 11.84 GlobalCommodity Stock
8.89 18-09 FCYIX 33.34 SIndustrials
8.79 19-01 FSCSX 139.54 SSoftware&ITServices
8.71 20-01 FSLEX 23.48 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Dec16 1m+6% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+24% 24m+14% 36m+14% 60m+65% 120m-6%
Nov16 1m+1% 3m-6% 6m+7% 12m+15% 24m+5% 36m+9% 60m+52% 120m-5%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – SBiotechnology(FBIOX)(16Jan17) from SComputers(FDCPX)
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Dec16 1m+2% 3m-0% 6m+3% 12m+9% 24m+8% 36m+7% 60m+21% 120m+18%
Nov16 1m+3% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+4% 24m+7% 36m+6% 60m+19% 120m+21%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%