Author: Flynn

So hurricane Irma has not killed the power at my house yet. It looks like Irma going up the west coast of Florida.

So I called Fidelity this morning since their list of this weekend’s distribution was wrong again. The representative said he would report it again for me. So the numbers have a potential of being adjusted but probably not a large change.

Each week I update my list of 100 funds with any better performing fund I am not following and dump the worst performing of the fund. This week I dumped Fidelity Select Banking Portfolio – FSRBX. Since the end of June, it has fallen 10%. Gary Kaltbaum has always claimed the market can not go up without the banks going up and will eventually go down. I listen to his show every evening, most often on the biztalkradio app.

I had previously mention that Jim Rohrback of Investment-Models.com was offering a free 2 month subscription to his timing letter. This week his two emails said remained invested in both the NYSE and Nasdaq.

My S&P500 investment is in RSP (S&P500 EqualWeighted) which has a price of 93.33, 50 day MA of 93.19, a 200 day MA of 90.46, and a 7% stop loss is 87.99.Fidelity has a fund, FUSEX, which follows the S&P500 index. It is currently ranked 70 on my list of best 100 funds. Not something to own. Fidelity also has a fund, FNCMX, which follows the Nasdaq index. It is currently ranked 53 on my list of best 100 funds. Not something to own. During a buy week when a fund I own is not one of the top 20 and I am fully invested, I will sell it and buy a top 20 fund. A good way to get rid of the “not bad enough to sell but not good enough to buy” funds.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2 – STechnology has a price of 174.54, a sell price 166.96, a rank of 06, and is a hold. (ETF – CQQQ – current stoploss 52.12)
IRA#2
SComputers has a price of 88.75, a sell price 84.96, a rank of of 38, and is a hold for now. (ETF – PSI – stopped out 6/12 11% gain)
OTCPortfolio has a price of 107.03, a sell price 102.80, a rank of 20, and is a hold. (ETF – MTUM – stoploss 87.02)
EmergingMarketsIndex – IC has a price of 10.89, a sell price 10.35, and a rank of 02. (ETF – EEMO – stoploss 18.80)
SBiotechnology – has a price of 228.50, a sell price 217.08, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – SBIO – stoploss TBD)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
15.69 01-05 FLATX 26.03 LatinAmerica
13.76 02-10 FPEMX 10.89 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
13.75 03-03 FBIOX 228.50 SBiotechnology
13.70 04-23 FEMKX 30.97 EmergingMarkets
13.26 05-18 FHKCX 32.51 ChinaReqion
12.35 06-33 FSPTX 174.54 STechnology
11.65 07-16 FSEAX 41.21 EmergingAsia
11.06 08-09 FISMX 29.08 InternationalSmallCap
10.53 09-03 FFGCX 12.10 GlobalCommodityStock Yes
10.40 10-04 FEDDX 14.92 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
10.33 11-09 FPBFX 33.45 PacificBasin
10.08 12-20 FDSVX 31.47 Growth Discovery
9.88 13-04 FIVFX 20.54 InternationalCapApp Yes
9.81 14-07 FIGRX 45.71 InternationalDiscovery
9.66 15-08 FTIEX 9.14 TotalInternationalEquity
9.60 16-01 FSCOX 18.26 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities Yes
9.50 17-07 FIREX 11.39 InternationalRealEstate Yes
9.30 18-07 FSDAX 152.81 SDefense&Aerospace
9.14 19-01 FSAGX 22.67 SGold
9.05 20-11 FOCPX 107.03 OTCPortfolio
Last week:
14.62 01-17 FHKCX 32.67 ChinaReqion
14.49 02-09 FPEMX 10.88 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
14.46 03-02 FBIOX 228.26 SBiotechnology Yes
13.87 04-32 FSPTX 175.75 STechnology Yes
12.37 05-15 FSEAX 41.22 EmergingAsia
11.82 06-04 FLATX 24.95 LatinAmerica
11.24 07-22 FEMKX 30.08 EmergingMarkets
11.11 08-06 FSDAX 154.58 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
10.78 09-10 FOCPX 108.21 OTCPortfolio Yes
10.74 10-19 FDSVX 31.49 Growth Discovery Yes
10.33 11-08 FISMX 28.72 InternationalSmallCap
10.27 12-08 FPBFX 33.25 PacificBasin
9.95 13-02 FFGCX 11.97 GlobalCommodityStock Yes
9.74 14-03 FEDDX 14.75 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
9.38 15-01 FSCSX 158.15 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
9.28 16-01 FBGRX 84.74 BlueChipGrowth Yes
9.26 17-07 FTIEX 9.06 TotalInternationalEquity
9.11 18-03 FIVFX 20.29 InternationalCapApp Yes
8.99 19-06 FIREX 11.28 InternationalRealEstate Yes
8.90 20-06 FIGRX 45.10 InternationalDiscovery

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jul17 1m+5% 3m+8% 6m+5% 12m+6% 24m+7% 36m+17% 60m+81% 120m-18%
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+3% 6m+0% 12m+7% 24m-4% 36m+9% 60m+71% 120m-11%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SBiotechnology(FBIOX)(05Sep17) from CashResrves(FDRXX)
20% – EmergingMarketsIndex – IC(FPEMX)(24Jul17) from CashResrves(FDRXX)
20% – OTCPortfolio(FOCPX)(15May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
Jul17 1m+1% 3m+2% 6m+5% 12m+5% 24m+7% 36m+16% 60m+25% 120m+22%
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+1% 6m+5% 12m+9% 24m+7% 36m+11% 60m+24% 120m+20%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

This was definitely an improvement over the last couple of weeks. The sum of all deviations, which I use to evaluate market trend, is up again and is the highest it has been since 04Aug. Among the 100 Fidelity funds I follow, last week there were 22 funds which I rated as buy. This week there are 75 funds rated as buy – deviations increased the last 2 weeks.

I had previously mention that Jim Rohrback of Investment-Models.com was offering a free 2 month subscription to his timing letter. He had indicated his Nasdaq model said sell on 10Aug, and the NYSE model said sell on 11Aug. Earlier this week I asked him to sign me up for that free offer. On Wed he sent a mid week report indicating he was still on a sell basis. After Thursday’s close, he sent a special report saying buy.

My S&P500 investment is in RSP (S&P500 EqualWeighted) which has a price of 93.60, 50 day MA of 93.15, a 200 day MA of 90.28, and a 7% stop loss is 87.99. Both RSP (S&P500 EqualWeighted) and SPY (S&P500 capitalization weighted) are now above their 50 Day moving average. SPY is doing better than RSP, which indicate the market leaders (Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Amazon) are doing better than the average stock

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2 – STechnology has a price of 175.75, a sell price 166.96, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – CQQQ – current stoploss 51.92)
IRA#2
SComputers has a price of 89.28, a sell price 84.96, a rank of of 26, and is a hold for now. (ETF – PSI – stopped out 6/12 11% gain)
OTCPortfolio has a price of 108.21, a sell price 102.80, a rank of 09, and is a hold. (ETF – MTUM – stoploss 87.02)
EmergingMarketsIndex – IC has a price of 10.88, a sell price 10.34, and a rank of 02. (ETF – EEMO – stoploss 18.67)
SBiotechnology – has a price of 228.26, a sell price TBD, a rank of 3, and is a buy. (ETF – SBIO – stoploss TBD)

Biotechnology is a super volatile sector with stocks like Gilead buying Kite Pharma for $11.9b this week at a premium of 29% over the previous week closing price. While ChinaRegion is my number one fund, it does not have an improving deviation two weeks in a row – an indication its price increase is slowing.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Purchase SBiotechnology

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
14.62 01-17 FHKCX 32.67 ChinaReqion
14.49 02-09 FPEMX 10.88 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
14.46 03-02 FBIOX 228.26 SBiotechnology Yes
13.87 04-32 FSPTX 175.75 STechnology Yes
12.37 05-15 FSEAX 41.22 EmergingAsia
11.82 06-04 FLATX 24.95 LatinAmerica
11.24 07-22 FEMKX 30.08 EmergingMarkets
11.11 08-06 FSDAX 154.58 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
10.78 09-10 FOCPX 108.21 OTCPortfolio Yes
10.74 10-19 FDSVX 31.49 Growth Discovery Yes
10.33 11-08 FISMX 28.72 InternationalSmallCap
10.27 12-08 FPBFX 33.25 PacificBasin
9.95 13-02 FFGCX 11.97 GlobalCommodityStock Yes
9.74 14-03 FEDDX 14.75 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
9.38 15-01 FSCSX 158.15 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
9.28 16-01 FBGRX 84.74 BlueChipGrowth Yes
9.26 17-07 FTIEX 9.06 TotalInternationalEquity
9.11 18-03 FIVFX 20.29 InternationalCapApp Yes
8.99 19-06 FIREX 11.28 InternationalRealEstate Yes
8.90 20-06 FIGRX 45.10 InternationalDiscovery
Last week:
15.19 01-16 FHKCX 32.58 ChinaReqion Yes
15.16 02-08 FPEMX 10.86 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC Yes
13.06 03-03 FLATX 25.07 LatinAmerica Yes
12.66 04-14 FSEAX 41.06 EmergingAsia Yes
12.32 05-31 FSPTX 172.09 STechnology Yes
11.53 06-21 FEMKX 29.98 EmergingMarkets Yes
10.54 07-07 FPBFX 33.15 PacificBasin Yes
10.47 08-07 FISMX 28.60 InternationalSmallCap
9.93 09-02 FEDDX 14.70 EmergingMarketsDiscovery Yes
9.45 10-05 FSDAX 151.39 SDefense&Aerospace
9.39 11-18 FDSVX 30.93 Growth Discovery
9.31 12-06 FTIEX 9.02 TotalInternationalEquity Yes
9.24 13-03 FSUTX 85.28 SUtilities Yes
9.24 14-01 FFGCX 11.83 GlobalCommodityStock
9.17 15-05 FIGRX 45.00 InternationalDiscovery Yes
8.96 16-09 FOCPX 105.83 OTCPortfolio
8.82 17-02 FIVFX 20.14 InternationalCapApp Yes
8.66 18-15 FSCOX 17.93 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities Yes
8.44 19-05 FIREX 11.17 InternationalRealEstate
8.22 20-01 FBIOX 214.17 SBiotechnology

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jul17 1m+5% 3m+8% 6m+5% 12m+6% 24m+7% 36m+17% 60m+81% 120m-18%
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+3% 6m+0% 12m+7% 24m-4% 36m+9% 60m+71% 120m-11%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SBiotechnology(FBIOX)(05Sep17) from CashResrves(FDRXX)
20% – EmergingMarketsIndex – IC(FPEMX)(24Jul17) from CashResrves(FDRXX)
20% – OTCPortfolio(FOCPX)(15May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
Jul17 1m+1% 3m+2% 6m+5% 12m+5% 24m+7% 36m+16% 60m+25% 120m+22%
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+1% 6m+5% 12m+9% 24m+7% 36m+11% 60m+24% 120m+20%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

Not a bad week, just sort of a blah week. The sum of all deviations, which I use to measure the market trend, moved up to 573, from 496, but 573 is just a little above where it was two weeks ago and below the previous three weeks. The percent of NYSE stocks whose individual point and figure charts have buy signals is 58.90%. In the last 2 years it has been as high as 76% in Feb17 and as low as 25% in Jan16. 58% is not good, not bad, just sort of ok. Of the 100 Fidelity mutual funds I follow, 22 are listed as buy. Of these 22, 17 are international funds which are probably helped by the falling dollar which has declined from a value of 103+ to 92+ since Dec16.

July returns for IRA#1 5%, IRA#2 1%, QQQ 4%, SPY/RSP 2% – not a bad month.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 8%, IRA#2 2%, QQQ 5%, SPY/RSP 3%
For the last 6 months, IRA#1 5%, IRA#2 5%, QQQ 15%, SPY/RSP 7%
For the last 12 months, IRA#1 5%, IRA#2 5%, QQQ 25%, SPY/RSP 13%
July portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – None – Invested 100% in FSPTX
IRA#2 – Purchased FPEMX on 24Jul, Sold FDLSX on 31Jul – Invested 20% in FSELX, FDCPX, FSPTX, FPEMX, and in cash
QQQ – None – Invested 100% in QQQ
SPY/RSP – None – Invested 100% in RSP

My S&P500 investment is in RSP (S&P500 EqualWeighted) which has a price of 92.46, 50 day MA of 93.15, a 200 day MA of 90.04, and a 7% stop loss is 87.99. Both RSP (S&P500 EqualWeighted) and SPY (S&P500 capitalization weighted) are below their 50 day moving average – the second week in a row. The 50 day average is a price at which many investors sell, and others just do not buy anymore.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2 – STechnology has a price of 172.8, a sell price 163.19, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – CQQQ – current stoploss 50.93)
IRA#2
SComputers has a price of 87.99, a sell price 84.96, a rank of of 30, and is a hold for now. (ETF – PSI – stopped out 6/12 11% gain)
OTCPortfolio has a price of 105.83, a sell price 101.39, a rank of 16, and is a hold. (ETF – MTUM – stoploss 86.58)
EmergingMarketsIndex – IC has a price of 10.86, a sell price 10.32, and a rank of 02. (ETF – EEMO – stoploss 18.48)

Last week I said I was still holding IBUY – well it turns out it had been sold on Friday 18Aug – stoploss hit.
IBUY was purchased on 5/8 and sold on 8/18 for a gain of 7.5%. It is now down 0.5% since the sale.
FDLSX was purchased on 5/8 and sold on 7/31 for a gain of 1.3%. It is now up 0.5% since the sale.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
15.19 01-16 FHKCX 32.58 ChinaReqion Yes
15.16 02-08 FPEMX 10.86 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC Yes
13.06 03-03 FLATX 25.07 LatinAmerica Yes
12.66 04-14 FSEAX 41.06 EmergingAsia Yes
12.32 05-31 FSPTX 172.09 STechnology Yes
11.53 06-21 FEMKX 29.98 EmergingMarkets Yes
10.54 07-07 FPBFX 33.15 PacificBasin Yes
10.47 08-07 FISMX 28.60 InternationalSmallCap
9.93 09-02 FEDDX 14.70 EmergingMarketsDiscovery Yes
9.45 10-05 FSDAX 151.39 SDefense&Aerospace
9.39 11-18 FDSVX 30.93 Growth Discovery
9.31 12-06 FTIEX 9.02 TotalInternationalEquity Yes
9.24 13-03 FSUTX 85.28 SUtilities Yes
9.24 14-01 FFGCX 11.83 GlobalCommodityStock
9.17 15-05 FIGRX 45.00 InternationalDiscovery Yes
8.96 16-09 FOCPX 105.83 OTCPortfolio
8.82 17-02 FIVFX 20.14 InternationalCapApp Yes
8.66 18-15 FSCOX 17.93 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities Yes
8.44 19-05 FIREX 11.17 InternationalRealEstate
8.22 20-01 FBIOX 214.17 SBiotechnology
Last week:
13.51 01-15 FHKCX 31.85 ChinaReqion
13.20 02-07 FPEMX 10.59 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
11.76 03-13 FSEAX 40.46 EmergingAsia
11.61 04-30 FSPTX 169.89 STechnology
10.80 05-02 FLATX 24.40 LatinAmerica
10.30 06-20 FEMKX 29.47 EmergingMarkets
10.02 07-06 FPBFX 32.81 PacificBasin
9.60 08-06 FISMX 28.22 InternationalSmallCap
9.22 09-17 FDSVX 30.73 Growth Discovery
9.09 10-04 FSDAX 150.14 SDefense&Aerospace
8.77 11-02 FSUTX 84.50 SUtilities
8.63 12-05 FTIEX 8.92 TotalInternationalEquity
8.49 13-14 FSCOX 17.82 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
8.33 14-01 FEDDX 14.41 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
8.29 15-04 FIGRX 44.42 InternationalDiscovery
8.24 16-04 FIREX 11.10 InternationalRealEstate
8.15 17-08 FOCPX 104.55 OTCPortfolio
7.98 18-01 FIVFX 19.89 InternationalCapApp
7.39 19-01 FSVLX 14.30 SConsumerFinance
7.02 20-01 FSCSX 153.38 SSoftware&ITServices

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jul17 1m+5% 3m+8% 6m+5% 12m+6% 24m+7% 36m+17% 60m+81% 120m-18%
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+3% 6m+0% 12m+7% 24m-4% 36m+9% 60m+71% 120m-11%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserve(FDRXX)(31Jul17) from SLeasure(FDLSX)
20% – EmergingMarketsIndex – IC(FPEMX)(24Jul17) from CashResrves(FDRXX)
20% – OTCPortfolio(FOCPX)(15May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
Jul17 1m+1% 3m+2% 6m+5% 12m+5% 24m+7% 36m+16% 60m+25% 120m+22%
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+1% 6m+5% 12m+9% 24m+7% 36m+11% 60m+24% 120m+20%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

Another not so good a week. Another week where none of the 100 funds I follow are rated by buy – an increasing deviation two weeks in a row is required. Another indication is that over the last 4 weeks (5 numbers) the sum of all deviations has been decreasing – not good.

On the Monday Investors Edge show, Gary Kaltbaum had a phone interview with Jim Rohrbach of investment-models.com. Jim said on Friday (11Aug) his numbers said sell the NYSE index and the previous day his numbers said sell the Nasdaq index. He had been fully invested prior to this change and all his clients are now in cash. Jim offered all listeners 2 months of his newsletter free. Just send an email to Jim@rixindex.com and request free newsletters. He sends out 2 newsletters per week. It is worth the email.

On Tuesday’s Fox Business News, Maria Bartiromo had a Charles Schwab senior analyst who said it may sound like funny magic but on the average during years ending in 7 (like 2017) the market has a down trend between August and November. A marketwatch article talks about the same idea – http://www.marketwatch.com/story/beware-of-the-curse-of-the-number-7-in-the-stock-market-2017-07-21 .

My S&P500 investment is in RSP (S&P500 EqualWeighted) which has a price of 91.58, 50 day MA of 93.22, a 200 day MA of 89.74, and a 7% stop loss is 87.99. Both RSP (S&P500 EqualWeighted) and SPY (S&P500 capitalization weighted) are below their 50 Day moving average – the second week in a row. The 50 day average is a price at which many investors sell, and others just do not buy anymore. Not a good sign.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2 – STechnology has a price of 169.89, a sell price 162.49, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – CQQQ – current stoploss 49.65)
IRA#2
SComputers has a price of 86.58, a sell price 84.96, a rank of of 34, and is a hold. (ETF – PSI – stopped out 6/12 11% gain)
OTCPortfolio has a price of 104.55, a sell price 101.39, a rank of 17, and is a hold. (ETF – MTUM – stoploss 86.58)
EmergingMarketsIndex – IC has a price of 10.59, a sell price 10.12, and a rank of 02. (ETF – EEMO – stoploss 18.14)
ETF – IBUY – stoploss 35.03 – I plan to hold IBUY until it is stopped out even though SLeasure was sold. 

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
13.51 01-15 FHKCX 31.85 ChinaReqion
13.20 02-07 FPEMX 10.59 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
11.76 03-13 FSEAX 40.46 EmergingAsia
11.61 04-30 FSPTX 169.89 STechnology
10.80 05-02 FLATX 24.40 LatinAmerica
10.30 06-20 FEMKX 29.47 EmergingMarkets
10.02 07-06 FPBFX 32.81 PacificBasin
9.60 08-06 FISMX 28.22 InternationalSmallCap
9.22 09-17 FDSVX 30.73 Growth Discovery
9.09 10-04 FSDAX 150.14 SDefense&Aerospace
8.77 11-02 FSUTX 84.50 SUtilities
8.63 12-05 FTIEX 8.92 TotalInternationalEquity
8.49 13-14 FSCOX 17.82 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
8.33 14-01 FEDDX 14.41 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
8.29 15-04 FIGRX 44.42 InternationalDiscovery
8.24 16-04 FIREX 11.10 InternationalRealEstate
8.15 17-08 FOCPX 104.55 OTCPortfolio
7.98 18-01 FIVFX 19.89 InternationalCapApp
7.39 19-01 FSVLX 14.30 SConsumerFinance
7.02 20-01 FSCSX 153.38 SSoftware&ITServices
Last week:
12.89 01-14 FHKCX 31.45 ChinaReqion
12.37 02-06 FPEMX 10.44 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
11.33 03-29 FSPTX 168.43 STechnology
10.48 04-12 FSEAX 39.75 EmergingAsia
10.38 05-03 FSDAX 151.18 SDefense&Aerospace
9.85 06-05 FISMX 28.14 InternationalSmallCap
9.64 07-16 FDSVX 30.70 Growth Discovery
8.88 08-05 FPBFX 32.30 PacificBasin
8.86 09-07 FOCPX 104.79 OTCPortfolio
8.57 10-01 FIVLX 8.85 InternationalValue
8.51 11-03 FIREX 11.08 InternationalRealEstate
8.34 12-19 FEMKX 28.79 EmergingMarkets
8.30 13-13 FSCOX 17.71 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
8.18 14-03 FIGRX 44.18 InternationalDiscovery
8.14 15-02 FWRLX 9.91 SWireless
8.06 16-01 FJSCX 17.60 JapanSmallerCompanies
8.03 17-04 FTIEX 8.83 TotalInternationalEquity
7.91 18-01 FLATX 23.63 LatinAmerica
7.83 19-01 FSUTX 83.38 SUtilities
7.79 20-02 FBGRX 82.55 BlueChipGrowth

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+3% 6m+0% 12m+7% 24m-4% 36m+9% 60m+71% 120m-11%
May17 1m+5% 3m-5% 6m+8% 12m+12% 24m-6% 36m+18% 60m+75% 120m-6%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserve(FDRXX)(31Jul17) from SLeasure(FDLSX)
20% – EmergingMarketsIndex – IC(FPEMX)(24Jul17) from CashResrves(FDRXX)
20% – OTCPortfolio(FOCPX)(15May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+1% 6m+5% 12m+9% 24m+7% 36m+11% 60m+24% 120m+20%
May17 1m+4% 3m+2% 6m10% 12m+18% 24m+7% 36m+15% 60m+27% 120m+23%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

Not a good week. One of the first weeks ever that none of the deviations of the 100 mutual funds I follow are up 2 weeks in a row. For each fund, I compute the percent the fund is above its 39 week exponentially smoothed moving average. For example, this week Fidelity China Region fund’s price is 12.89% (which I refer to as deviation) above it’s 39 week exponentially smoothed moving average. Last week this fund’s deviation was 15.39. Two weeks ago the deviation was 15.79. While the fund price may be going up, it’s rate of increase is decreasing and the deviation has not been increasing two weeks in row. The result is that it is not a buy as well as the other 99 funds which are not buys.

One of the loosely investment related YouTube videos I like to watch is Gerald Celente. He can be a little outrageous at times. In his video published on 11Aug17, he comments on world markets, interest rates, the way the US and the United Kingdom created the IRAN problem in 1952, etc.

Another YouTube video providing a good world economic view is Boom Bust RT – YouTube.com/BoomBustRT. On the 08Aug17 show they reported the US that credit card debt is 1.021T, the US student loan debt is 1.4T, and US household debt is 12.0T, all of which are records, beating the previous records set in 2008. We, and the rest of the world, have learned nothing about the down side of debt.

My S&P500 investment is in RSP (S&P500 EqualWeighted) which has a price of 92.20, 50 day MA of 93.20, a 200 day MA of 89.44, and a 7% stop loss is 87.99. Both RSP (S&P500 EqualWeighted) and SPY (S&P500 capitalization weighted) are below their 50 Day moving average. The 50 day average is a price at which many investors sell, and others just do not buy anymore. Not a good sign.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2 – STechnology has a price of 168.43, a sell price 162.49, a rank of 03, and is a hold. ( ETF – CQQQ – current stoploss 49.25 )
IRA#2
SComputers has a price of 86.30, a sell price 84.96, a rank of of 38, and is a hold. (ETF – PSI – stopped out 6/12 11% gain)
OTCPortfolio has a price of 104.79, a sell price 101.39, a rank of 09, and is a hold. (ETF – MTUM – stoploss 86.57)
EmergingMarketsIndex – IC has a price of 10.44, a sell price 10.12, and a rank of 02. (ETF – EEMO – stoploss 18.14)
ETF – IBUY – stoploss 35.03 – I plan to hold IBUY until it is stopped out even though SLeasure was sold. Fidelity now allows a stoploss on IBUY.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
12.89 01-14 FHKCX 31.45 ChinaReqion
12.37 02-06 FPEMX 10.44 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
11.33 03-29 FSPTX 168.43 STechnology
10.48 04-12 FSEAX 39.75 EmergingAsia
10.38 05-03 FSDAX 151.18 SDefense&Aerospace
9.85 06-05 FISMX 28.14 InternationalSmallCap
9.64 07-16 FDSVX 30.70 Growth Discovery
8.88 08-05 FPBFX 32.30 PacificBasin
8.86 09-07 FOCPX 104.79 OTCPortfolio
8.57 10-01 FIVLX 8.85 InternationalValue
8.51 11-03 FIREX 11.08 InternationalRealEstate
8.34 12-19 FEMKX 28.79 EmergingMarkets
8.30 13-13 FSCOX 17.71 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
8.18 14-03 FIGRX 44.18 InternationalDiscovery
8.14 15-02 FWRLX 9.91 SWireless
8.06 16-01 FJSCX 17.60 JapanSmallerCompanies
8.03 17-04 FTIEX 8.83 TotalInternationalEquity
7.91 18-01 FLATX 23.63 LatinAmerica
7.83 19-01 FSUTX 83.38 SUtilities
7.79 20-02 FBGRX 82.55 BlueChipGrowth
Last week:
15.39 01-04 FPEMX 10.65 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
15.32 02-13 FHKCX 31.91 ChinaReqion
13.49 03-28 FSPTX 170.68 STechnology
13.22 04-11 FSEAX 40.51 EmergingAsia
11.92 05-15 FDSVX 31.94 Growth Discovery
11.87 06-04 FISMX 28.51 InternationalSmallCap
11.38 07-06 FOCPX 106.71 OTCPortfolio
11.36 08-02 FSDAX 151.69 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
10.78 09-04 FPBFX 32.71 PacificBasin
10.71 10-02 FIGRX 45.02 InternationalDiscovery Yes
10.67 11-02 FIREX 11.25 InternationalRealEstate Yes
10.57 12-03 FTIEX 9.00 TotalInternationalEquity
10.44 13-18 FEMKX 29.22 EmergingMarkets
10.44 14-12 FSCOX 17.98 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
10.15 15-07 FBIOX 215.73 SBiotechnology
10.02 16-04 FBGRX 83.91 BlueChipGrowth
9.90 17-03 FSVLX 14.52 SConsumerFinance
9.59 18-01 FWRLX 10.00 SWireless Yes
9.58 19-01 FNORX 53.39 Nordic
9.50 20-01 FIVFX 20.01 InternationalCapApp

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+3% 6m+0% 12m+7% 24m-4% 36m+9% 60m+71% 120m-11%
May17 1m+5% 3m-5% 6m+8% 12m+12% 24m-6% 36m+18% 60m+75% 120m-6%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserve(FDRXX)(31Jul17) from SLeasure(FDLSX)
20% – EmergingMarketsIndex – IC(FPEMX)(24Jul17) from CashResrves(FDRXX)
20% – OTCPortfolio(FOCPX)(15May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+1% 6m+5% 12m+9% 24m+7% 36m+11% 60m+24% 120m+20%
May17 1m+4% 3m+2% 6m10% 12m+18% 24m+7% 36m+15% 60m+27% 120m+23%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

So I spent a couple of days in Gainesville attending my daughter’s graduation from the University of Florida with a Doctor of Education degree. While there I stayed in a Home2 Suites by Hilton. It is a great place to stay and I recommend Home2 Suites by Hilton as a hotel wherever you can find them.

One interesting observation is that the DJIA – 30 larger cap stocks- up 2.6% over the last 2 weeks and the S&P500 – 500 large cap stocks – is up .02%. The biggest stocks are still going up and pulling the averages up while the smaller ones are not. Not the sign of a good market.
All in all the sum of the deviations (my measurement of the market) has not increased two weeks in a row – not a buy week.

I had a discussion with an acquaintance comparing Mutual Funds and Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) and thought I would review it this week. Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Mutual Fund (FNCMX) has the same goal and investments as PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ). Over the last year FBCNX up 22.76% and QQQ up 24.28%. The downside of an ETF is that it costs $5 to buy and $5 to sell. If you enter a stoploss order, like I do to protect me from a big drop (I generally use a 7% stoploss price below the highest previous close, sometimes I use the 50 day moving average (stockcharts.com is a good source)), it may be sold on a day the market drops and then recovers. The down side of a mutual fund is that it can only be purchased and sold at the end of the day. A stoploss order cannot be used thus you cannot protect your investments from a big daily drop. Mutual funds only report investments quarterly, not daily like an ETF. At Fidelity if you buy and sell the fund twice within 90 days Fidelity will restrict your future investments – other Fidelity funds charge up to 1.5% if sold within 90 days. Fidelity management fees are slightly higher than PowerShares – thus part of the difference in annual return. If you buy a mutual fund and it has sold shares for a gain or received dividends, even before you buy it, you will pay tax on a the gain and dividends even if you are losing money on your purchase. My stoploss on my QQQ investment  is 134.73.

One interesting observation is that the DJIA – 30 larger cap stocks- up 2.6% over the last 2 weeks and the S&P500 – 500 large cap stocks – is up .02%. The biggest stocks are still going up and pulling the averages up while the smaller ones are not. Not the sign of a good market.
All in all the sum of the deviations (my measurement of the market) has not increased two weeks in a row – not a buy week.

My S&P500 investment is in RSP (S&P500 EqualWeighted) which has a price of 93.86, 50 day MA of 93.06, a 200 day MA of 89.15, and a 7% stop loss is 87.99. The ratio between SPY (S&P500 capitalization weighted) and RSP still indicates the larger capitalization stocks are doing better than te average. Generally not a positive indicator.

I am still following Fidelity funds because many 401ks, like HRBlock’s, are stuck in the 20th century and only allow mutual fund investments. Even the State of Florida, allows ETFs in it’s personally managed state retirement plan.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2 – STechnology has a price of 170.68, a sell price 162.49, a rank of 03, and is a hold. ( ETF – CQQQ – current stoploss 47.90 )
IRA#2
SComputers has a price of 88.38, a sell price 84.96, a rank of of 31, and is a hold. (ETF – PSI – stopped out 6/12 11% gain)
OTCPortfolio has a price of 106.71, a sell price 101.39, a rank of 07, and is a hold. (ETF – MTUM – stoploss 86.31)
EmergingMarketsIndex – IC has a price of 10.65, a sell price 10.12, and a rank of 01. (ETF – EEMO – stoploss 17.96)
ETF – IBUY – stoploss not allowed – I plan to hold IBUY longer even thought SLeasure was sold, IBUY’s price is 6.2% above a sell price of 35.03.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
15.39 01-04 FPEMX 10.65 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
15.32 02-13 FHKCX 31.91 ChinaReqion
13.49 03-28 FSPTX 170.68 STechnology
13.22 04-11 FSEAX 40.51 EmergingAsia
11.92 05-15 FDSVX 31.94 Growth Discovery
11.87 06-04 FISMX 28.51 InternationalSmallCap
11.38 07-06 FOCPX 106.71 OTCPortfolio
11.36 08-02 FSDAX 151.69 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
10.78 09-04 FPBFX 32.71 PacificBasin
10.71 10-02 FIGRX 45.02 InternationalDiscovery Yes
10.67 11-02 FIREX 11.25 InternationalRealEstate Yes
10.57 12-03 FTIEX 9.00 TotalInternationalEquity
10.44 13-18 FEMKX 29.22 EmergingMarkets
10.44 14-12 FSCOX 17.98 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
10.15 15-07 FBIOX 215.73 SBiotechnology
10.02 16-04 FBGRX 83.91 BlueChipGrowth
9.90 17-03 FSVLX 14.52 SConsumerFinance
9.59 18-01 FWRLX 10.00 SWireless Yes
9.58 19-01 FNORX 53.39 Nordic
9.50 20-01 FIVFX 20.01 InternationalCapApp
Last week:
15.89 01-03 FPEMX 10.61 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
15.79 02-12 FHKCX 31.78 ChinaReqion Yes
14.23 03-27 FSPTX 170.57 STechnology
14.01 04-10 FSEAX 40.51 EmergingAsia
12.83 05-06 FBIOX 219.80 SBiotechnology
12.18 06-03 FISMX 28.41 InternationalSmallCap
11.94 07-25 FOCPX 106.61 OTCPortfolio
11.78 08-14 FDSVX 31.70 Growth Discovery
11.58 09-03 FPBFX 32.76 PacificBasin
11.17 10-17 FEMKX 29.25 EmergingMarkets
11.05 11-11 FSCOX 17.98 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
10.94 12-02 FTIEX 8.98 TotalInternationalEquity
10.86 13-01 FARNX 14.57 EventDrivenOpportunities Yes
10.57 14-01 FIGRX 44.71 InternationalDiscovery Yes
10.50 15-03 FBGRX 83.83 BlueChipGrowth
10.41 16-01 FIREX 11.16 InternationalRealEstate Yes
10.12 17-03 FSCSX 155.93 SSoftware&ITServices
10.06 18-01 FSDAX 149.03 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
9.87 19-02 FSVLX 14.44 SConsumerFinance
9.85 20-02 FCNTX 118.79 Contrafund

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+3% 6m+0% 12m+7% 24m-4% 36m+9% 60m+71% 120m-11%
May17 1m+5% 3m-5% 6m+8% 12m+12% 24m-6% 36m+18% 60m+75% 120m-6%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserve(FDRXX)(31Jul17) from SLeasure(FDLSX)
20% – EmergingMarketsIndex – IC(FPEMX)(24Jul17) from CashResrves(FDRXX)
20% – OTCPortfolio(FOCPX)(15May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+1% 6m+5% 12m+9% 24m+7% 36m+11% 60m+24% 120m+20%
May17 1m+4% 3m+2% 6m10% 12m+18% 24m+7% 36m+15% 60m+27% 120m+23%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

Not a good week. The sum of the deviation declined and this week only 11 of the 100 funds I follow are rated buy. Last week it was 54.

This week’s Consulo Mack WealthTrack show featured an interview with Michael Lippert manager of the Baron Opportunity Fund. Unlike most of Consulo Mack’s guests, Lippert is a growth manager rather than a value manager. The 3 stocks he mentioned, which he owns, are Amazon (AMZN), Guidewire Software (GWRE), CoStar Group (CSGP). Mr Lippert looks for stock which he thinks will grow over the next 5 year.

The 5 stocks I mentioned two weeks ago (up 100.2% to 254.5% this year) which were from a podcast – Zacks Market Edge by Tracey Ryniec – are up another 7.43% to 37.98% over the last 2 weeks. Perhaps I should listen to Tracey Ryniec more.

One indication of market peak is a peak in the total amount of margin debt and security based loans. The 2007 peak was 43% higher than the 1999 peak. The 2016 peak is 91% higher than the 2007 peak. Margin works great in an up market. You can make twice as much on a stock, minus a small amount of interest paid on the margin loan. In a down market you can lose twice as much plus the interest paid on the margin loan. That is with a dollar invested and a dollar borrowed to invest. Some investment companies leverage more, Bear Stearns which went bankrupt in March 08, was leveraged 36 to 1 or for each dollar invested they borrowed 36 to also invest.
My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 94.20, 50 day MA of 92.75, a 200 day MA of 88.82, and a 7% stop loss is 87.99. The ratio between SPY and RSP still indicates the larger capitalization stocks are doing better than the average. Generally not a positive indicator.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2 – STechnology has a price of 170.57, a sell price 162.49, a rank of 03, and is a hold. ( ETF – CQQQ – current stoploss 47.67 )
IRA#2
SComputers has a price of 87.86, a sell price 84.96, a rank of of 31, and is a hold. (ETF – PSI – stopped out 6/12 11% gain)
SLeasure has a price of 156.58, a sell price 156.63, a rank of 70, and is a sell. (ETF – IBUY – stoploss not allowed – I plan to hold IBUY longer, its price is 5.6% above a sell price)
OTCPortfolio has a price of 106.61, a sell price 101.39, a rank of 07, and is a hold. (ETF – MTUM – stoploss 85.81)
EmergingMarketsIndex – IC has a price of 10.61, a sell price 10.08, and a rank of 01. (ETF – EEMO – stoploss 17.85)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell SLeasure

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
15.89 01-03 FPEMX 10.61 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
15.79 02-12 FHKCX 31.78 ChinaReqion Yes
14.23 03-27 FSPTX 170.57 STechnology
14.01 04-10 FSEAX 40.51 EmergingAsia
12.83 05-06 FBIOX 219.80 SBiotechnology
12.18 06-03 FISMX 28.41 InternationalSmallCap
11.94 07-25 FOCPX 106.61 OTCPortfolio
11.78 08-14 FDSVX 31.70 Growth Discovery
11.58 09-03 FPBFX 32.76 PacificBasin
11.17 10-17 FEMKX 29.25 EmergingMarkets
11.05 11-11 FSCOX 17.98 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
10.94 12-02 FTIEX 8.98 TotalInternationalEquity
10.86 13-01 FARNX 14.57 EventDrivenOpportunities Yes
10.57 14-01 FIGRX 44.71 InternationalDiscovery Yes
10.50 15-03 FBGRX 83.83 BlueChipGrowth
10.41 16-01 FIREX 11.16 InternationalRealEstate Yes
10.12 17-03 FSCSX 155.93 SSoftware&ITServices
10.06 18-01 FSDAX 149.03 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
9.87 19-02 FSVLX 14.44 SConsumerFinance
9.85 20-02 FCNTX 118.79 Contrafund
Last week:
16.43 01-02 FPEMX 10.57 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC Yes
15.41 02-26 FSPTX 171.04 STechnology Yes
15.25 03-11 FHKCX 31.37 ChinaReqion Yes
14.65 04-05 FBIOX 221.84 SBiotechnology Yes
14.46 05-09 FSEAX 40.37 EmergingAsia Yes
13.78 06-04 FSLBX 79.08 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement Yes
12.78 07-24 FOCPX 106.73 OTCPortfolio Yes
12.45 08-01 FSRBX 35.09 SBanking
12.37 09-13 FDSVX 31.67 Growth Discovery Yes
12.27 10-02 FISMX 28.25 InternationalSmallCap Yes
11.72 11-02 FPBFX 32.60 PacificBasin Yes
11.51 12-10 FSCOX 17.95 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities Yes
11.38 13-02 FSCSX 156.87 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
11.37 14-16 FEMKX 29.13 EmergingMarkets
11.27 15-02 FBGRX 83.95 BlueChipGrowth Yes
11.25 16-01 FAUIX 12.31 LargeCapGrowthIndex – IC Yes
11.21 17-01 FTIEX 8.95 TotalInternationalEquity Yes
11.13 18-01 FDCPX 89.43 SComputers Yes
10.90 19-01 FSVLX 14.50 SConsumerFinance Yes
10.28 20-01 FCNTX 118.64 Contrafund Yes
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+3% 6m+0% 12m+7% 24m-4% 36m+9% 60m+71% 120m-11%
May17 1m+5% 3m-5% 6m+8% 12m+12% 24m-6% 36m+18% 60m+75% 120m-6%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserve(FDRXX)(31Jul17) from SLeasure(FDLSX)
20% – EmergingMarketsIndex – IC(FPEMX)(24Jul17) from CashResrves(FDRXX)
20% – OTCPortfolio(FOCPX)(15May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+1% 6m+5% 12m+9% 24m+7% 36m+11% 60m+24% 120m+20%
May17 1m+4% 3m+2% 6m10% 12m+18% 24m+7% 36m+15% 60m+27% 120m+23%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

My report is a little late this week, I had to spend Saturday helping Donald Duck run Disney’s Animal Kingdom. It rained.

This was a good week. I did not think it was this good until I worked the numbers and it is a buy week.

Returns for June IRA#1 -2%, IRA#2 -2%, QQQ -3%, SPY/RSP 1% – not a great month.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 3%, IRA#2 1%, QQQ 4%, SPY/RSP 2%
For the last 6 months, IRA#1 0%, IRA#2 5%, QQQ 16%, SPY/RSP 7%
For the last 12 months, IRA#1 7%, IRA#2 9%, QQQ 28%, SPY/RSP 16%
May portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – None – Invested 100% in FSPTX
IRA#2 – None – Invested 20% in FSELX, FDCPX, FSPTX, FDLSX, and in cash
QQQ – None – Invested 100% in QQQ
SPY/RSP – None – Invested 100% in RSP
DWTR – I am no longer going to invest in this ETF. It is an ETF which slowly rotates between 10 sector ETFs. The results have not proved as good as I thought it should be. It may be a fine investment for an investor who never wants to manage his investments.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 94.31, 50 day MA of 92.40, a 200 day MA of 88.52, and a 7% stop loss is 87.74. In a recent podcast from MacroVoices, the guest pointed out that SPY (the capitalization weighted S&P500 ETF) is out performing RSP (the equal weighted S&P500 ETF) by a ratio equal to when it did in 2007. Generally it does not.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2 – STechnology has a price of 171.04, a sell price 162.49, a rank of 02, and is a hold. ( ETF – CQQQ – current stoploss 47.67 )
IRA#2
SComputers has a price of 89.43, a sell price 84.96, a rank of of 18, and is a hold. (ETF – PSI – stopped out 6/12 11% gain)
SLeasure has a price of 159.03, a sell price 156.63, a rank of 51, and will be sold when there is another fund to buy. (ETF – IBUY – stoploss not allowed)
OTCPortfolio has a price of 106.73, a sell price 101.39, a rank of 07, and is a hold. (ETF – MTUM – stoploss 85.60)
EmergingMarketsIndex – IC is a buy and has a price of 10.57, a sell price TBD, and a rank of 01. (ETF – EEMO)
00% Cash in IRA#01 and 00% Cash in IRA#2.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Invest 20% in EmergingMarketsIndex – IC

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
16.43 01-02 FPEMX 10.57 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC Yes
15.41 02-26 FSPTX 171.04 STechnology Yes
15.25 03-11 FHKCX 31.37 ChinaReqion Yes
14.65 04-05 FBIOX 221.84 SBiotechnology Yes
14.46 05-09 FSEAX 40.37 EmergingAsia Yes
13.78 06-04 FSLBX 79.08 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement Yes
12.78 07-24 FOCPX 106.73 OTCPortfolio Yes
12.45 08-01 FSRBX 35.09 SBanking
12.37 09-13 FDSVX 31.67 Growth Discovery Yes
12.27 10-02 FISMX 28.25 InternationalSmallCap Yes
11.72 11-02 FPBFX 32.60 PacificBasin Yes
11.51 12-10 FSCOX 17.95 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities Yes
11.38 13-02 FSCSX 156.87 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
11.37 14-16 FEMKX 29.13 EmergingMarkets
11.27 15-02 FBGRX 83.95 BlueChipGrowth Yes
11.25 16-01 FAUIX 12.31 LargeCapGrowthIndex – IC Yes
11.21 17-01 FTIEX 8.95 TotalInternationalEquity Yes
11.13 18-01 FDCPX 89.43 SComputers Yes
10.90 19-01 FSVLX 14.50 SConsumerFinance Yes
10.28 20-01 FCNTX 118.64 Contrafund Yes
Last week:
14.14 01-25 FSPTX 167.91 STechnology
13.29 02-10 FHKCX 31.07 ChinaReqion
13.04 03-04 FBIOX 216.51 SBiotechnology Yes
12.74 04-15 FEMKX 28.88 EmergingMarkets
12.64 05-12 FNORX 54.12 Nordic
12.34 06-08 FSEAX 39.86 EmergingAsia
11.96 07-23 FOCPX 105.33 OTCPortfolio
11.32 08-05 FSMEX 46.83 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
10.93 09-02 FSAIX 81.98 SAirTransportation Yes
10.84 10-01 FSCSX 154.98 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
10.81 11-01 FPEMX 10.47 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
10.28 12-01 FBGRX 82.88 BlueChipGrowth
10.17 13-03 FSLBX 75.64 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement Yes
10.07 14-12 FIEUX 40.58 Europe
10.04 15-12 FDSVX 31.34 Growth Discovery Yes
10.02 16-01 FEDDX 14.24 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
9.89 17-09 FSCOX 17.76 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
9.89 18-02 FSELX 106.64 SSemiconductors
9.85 19-01 FISMX 27.99 InternationalSmallCap
9.82 20-01 FPBFX 32.12 PacificBasin
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+3% 6m+0% 12m+7% 24m-4% 36m+9% 60m+71% 120m-11%
May17 1m+5% 3m-5% 6m+8% 12m+12% 24m-6% 36m+18% 60m+75% 120m-6%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashResrves(FDRXX)(03Jul17) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)
20% – OTCPortfolio(FOCPX)(15May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SLeasure(FDLSX)(08May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+1% 6m+5% 12m+9% 24m+7% 36m+11% 60m+24% 120m+20%
May17 1m+4% 3m+2% 6m10% 12m+18% 24m+7% 36m+15% 60m+27% 120m+23%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

This was a good week. Not quite good enough to buy anything since the sum of all the deviations has not been up 2 weeks in a row.

One of the many podcasts I received is WealthTrack by Consuelo Mack. Last week Burton Malkiel said his one investment for a long term diversified portfolio was an ETF total world stock Fund like VT. Two weeks ago Robert Kleinschmidt said he liked CBL, TSCO, and SM which he feels will be going up. Last year (2/5/16) on the show his one investment for a long term diversified portfolio was ETT XME which has doubled. This year his one investment for a long term diversified portfolio is ETF XOP. The shows are also available on wealthtrack.com.

Another interesting weekly podcast is Zacks Market Edge where Tracey Ryniec suggests value investments. On the 12Jul she reviewed 5 stocks which were valve stocks and most are still value stocks but are now performing like growth stocks. The 5 stocks are AAOI, WTW, CAI, TRTN, and KEM. This year the worst performing of the 5 is up 100.24% and the best is up 264.5%. Tracey points out that value stocks can be a good performers even when up 100%. The shows are also available on zacks.com. I do not intend to buy any of these, but if I did, I would buy 4 or 5, put in stop losses, and let the winners continue.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 93.76, 50 day MA of 92.12, a 200 day MA of 88.23, and a 7% stop loss is 87.20. The relative changes between SPY and RSP, since RSP is not doing as well as SPY, is an indication that the big large capitalization stocks are doing better than the smaller ones since both ETFs contain the same 500 stocks. So the bigger stocks are doing well, but the rest of the market is not doing as well.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2 – STechnology has a price of 167.91, a sell price 160.59, a rank of 01, and is a hold. ( ETF – CQQQ – current stoploss 45.86 )
IRA#2
SComputers has a price of 88.08, a sell price 84.05, a rank of of 23, and will be sold when there is another fund to buy. (ETF – PSI – stopped out 6/12 11% gain)
SLeasure has a price of 158.22, a sell price 156.63, a rank of 45, and will be sold when there is another fund to buy. (ETF – IBUY – stoploss not allowed)
OTCPortfolio has a price of 105.33, a sell price 100.42, a rank of 07, and is a hold. (ETF – MTUM – stoploss 85.24)
00% Cash in IRA#01 and 80% Cash in IRA#2.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
14.14 01-25 FSPTX 167.91 STechnology
13.29 02-10 FHKCX 31.07 ChinaReqion
13.04 03-04 FBIOX 216.51 SBiotechnology Yes
12.74 04-15 FEMKX 28.88 EmergingMarkets
12.64 05-12 FNORX 54.12 Nordic
12.34 06-08 FSEAX 39.86 EmergingAsia
11.96 07-23 FOCPX 105.33 OTCPortfolio
11.32 08-05 FSMEX 46.83 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
10.93 09-02 FSAIX 81.98 SAirTransportation Yes
10.84 10-01 FSCSX 154.98 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
10.81 11-01 FPEMX 10.47 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
10.28 12-01 FBGRX 82.88 BlueChipGrowth
10.17 13-03 FSLBX 75.64 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement Yes
10.07 14-12 FIEUX 40.58 Europe
10.04 15-12 FDSVX 31.34 Growth Discovery Yes
10.02 16-01 FEDDX 14.24 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
9.89 17-09 FSCOX 17.76 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
9.89 18-02 FSELX 106.64 SSemiconductors
9.85 19-01 FISMX 27.99 InternationalSmallCap
9.82 20-01 FPBFX 32.12 PacificBasin
Last week:
12.55 01-03 FBIOX 214.10 SBiotechnology
11.21 02-11 FNORX 53.08 Nordic
10.76 03-04 FSMEX 46.32 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
10.53 04-01 FSAIX 81.21 SAirTransportation Yes
10.15 05-07 FSEAX 38.83 EmergingAsia
10.12 06-24 FSPTX 160.79 STechnology
10.09 07-02 FSLBX 75.18 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement Yes
9.89 08-01 FSELX 106.09 SSemiconductors
9.35 09-09 FHKCX 29.78 ChinaReqion
9.24 10-22 FOCPX 102.13 OTCPortfolio
9.15 11-11 FDSVX 30.92 Growth Discovery
9.06 12-14 FEMKX 27.75 EmergingMarkets
8.65 13-02 FSLEX 24.95 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
8.57 14-01 FSRFX 96.46 STransportation Yes
8.56 15-01 FSDAX 144.69 SDefense&Aerospace
8.39 16-03 FSPHX 224.78 SHealthCare
8.33 17-11 FIEUX 39.73 Europe
8.23 18-01 FPHAX 19.30 SPharmaceuticals
7.96 18-15 FDLSX 157.76 SLeisure
7.79 20-08 FSCOX 17.33 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Apr17 1m+0% 3m-3% 6m+4% 12m+3% 24m-10% 36m+13% 60m+51% 120m+4%
May17 1m+5% 3m-5% 6m+8% 12m+12% 24m-6% 36m+18% 60m+75% 120m-6%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashResrves(FDRXX)(03Jul17) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)
20% – OTCPortfolio(FOCPX)(15May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SLeasure(FDLSX)(08May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
Apr17 1m-1% 3m+3% 6m+9% 12m+13% 24m+7% 36m+13% 60m+15% 120m+20%
May17 1m+4% 3m+2% 6m10% 12m+18% 24m+7% 36m+15% 60m+27% 120m+23%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

Sort of a nothing week. Some indexes are up a little but nothing really says buy or sell. On the NYSE 57% of the stocks are above their 50 day moving average and on the Nasdaq the number is 56%. Out of the 100 Fidelity funds I follow only 7 have improving deviations over the last 3 weeks, and the sum of all deviation is down over the last 3 weeks. Not a week I am buying or selling anything.

Fidelity has about 20 classification of its funds. Every time I plan an update I search the dates in the classification header to make sure it is the latest update. Last week, it seems they updated the date before they updated the numbers and my quotes were incorrect since I had the previous day’s data. The updated numbers, shown below as last week, are slightly different than before but there were no changes to the analysis of sells.

Gary Kaltbaum is having a contest. Guess the value of the DJIA at the close on 31Dec17 (currently 21,414.34) and the closest guess will win. He has not decided exactly the prize but has said it will be about 3k in value. Send guess, name, phone, and email address to gkaltbaum@kaltbaum.net before end of the day Sunday 16Jul17. He as done this many times before and I’ve never won but my guess has been sent. You can review what he is saying about the contest at Garyk.com just click on one of his radio shows.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 92.50, 50 day MA of 91.93, a 200 day MA of 87.96, and a 7% stop loss is 86.92. On Thursday, the low during the day was below the 50 day moving average. Since I am using a 7% stoploss I’ve not sold. It is up slightly over 3 months and down slightly over 1 month.

InestorsBusinessDaily TheBigPicture’s Market Pulse is – I’ve quit following this indicator. It just swings too often from buy to not buy.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2 – STechnology has a price of 160.79, a sell price 160.59, a rank of 06, and is a hold. ( ETF – CQQQ – current stoploss 44.34 )
IRA#2
SComputers has a price of 83.72, a sell price 84.05, a rank of of 63, and will be sold when there is another fund to buy. (ETF – PSI – stopped out 6/12 11% gain)
SLeasure has a price of 157.76, a sell price 156.63, a rank of 18, and is a hold. (ETF – IBUY – stoploss not allowed)
OTCPortfolio has a price of 103.13, a sell price 100.42, a rank of 10, and is a hold. (ETF – MTUM – stoploss 84.43)
00% Cash in IRA#01 and 80% Cash in IRA#2.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
12.55 01-03 FBIOX 214.10 SBiotechnology
11.21 02-11 FNORX 53.08 Nordic
10.76 03-04 FSMEX 46.32 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
10.53 04-01 FSAIX 81.21 SAirTransportation Yes
10.15 05-07 FSEAX 38.83 EmergingAsia
10.12 06-24 FSPTX 160.79 STechnology
10.09 07-02 FSLBX 75.18 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement Yes
9.89 08-01 FSELX 106.09 SSemiconductors
9.35 09-09 FHKCX 29.78 ChinaReqion
9.24 10-22 FOCPX 102.13 OTCPortfolio
9.15 11-11 FDSVX 30.92 Growth Discovery
9.06 12-14 FEMKX 27.75 EmergingMarkets
8.65 13-02 FSLEX 24.95 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
8.57 14-01 FSRFX 96.46 STransportation Yes
8.56 15-01 FSDAX 144.69 SDefense&Aerospace
8.39 16-03 FSPHX 224.78 SHealthCare
8.33 17-11 FIEUX 39.73 Europe
8.23 18-01 FPHAX 19.30 SPharmaceuticals
7.96 18-15 FDLSX 157.76 SLeisure
7.79 20-08 FSCOX 17.33 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
Last week:
12.38 01-10 FNORX 53.32 Nordic
12.03 02-08 FHKCX 30.36 ChinaReqion
11.72 03-02 FBIOX 211.11 SBiotechnology
11.28 04-03 FSMEX 46.27 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
11.00 05-06 FSEAX 38.92 EmergingAsia
10.84 06-23 FSPTX 160.98 STechnology
10.63 07-21 FOCPX 102.92 OTCPortfolio
9.97 08-13 FEMKX 27.85 EmergingMarkets
9.44 09-04 FPBFX 31.72 PacificBasin
9.42 10-07 FSCOX 17.52 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
9.33 11-01 FISMX 27.60 InternationalSmallCap
9.22 12-01 FSLBX 74.19 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
8.95 13-10 FIEUX 39.78 Europe
8.87 14-01 FSAIX 79.55 SAirTransportation
8.70 15-02 FSPHX 224.43 SHealthCare
8.64 16-14 FDLSX 158.08 SLeisure
8.58 17-01 FSLEX 24.82 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
8.47 18-10 FDSVX 30.58 Growth Discovery
8.34 19-01 FOSFX 46.90 Overseas
8.20 20-09 FIGFX 12.70 InternationalGrowth
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Apr17 1m+0% 3m-3% 6m+4% 12m+3% 24m-10% 36m+13% 60m+51% 120m+4%
May17 1m+5% 3m-5% 6m+8% 12m+12% 24m-6% 36m+18% 60m+75% 120m-6%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashResrves(FDRXX)(03Jul17) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)
20% – OTCPortfolio(FOCPX)(15May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SLeasure(FDLSX)(08May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
Apr17 1m-1% 3m+3% 6m+9% 12m+13% 24m+7% 36m+13% 60m+15% 120m+20%
May17 1m+4% 3m+2% 6m10% 12m+18% 24m+7% 36m+15% 60m+27% 120m+23%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%