Author: Flynn

A sort of good week, a good week. The sum of all the deviations has been -155, -493, and now -213 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 00, 01, and now 02.

Fidelity sent out an email on year end tax moves. https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/personal-finance/2018-year-end-tax-plans-to-catch-up-on?

I had a discussion on selling vs holding when the market falls. His point was it will come back. My point was that 1. I do not want to lose more money, and 2. bear market math. Bear market math can be illustrated by looking at Caterpillar Inc. (CAT). In January CAT was trading at 158. In October it was trading at 112. That represents a 33% drop in price. In order to get back to 168 from 112, CAT has to make a 50% gain. Not a lot of 50% gains. A year ago General Electric Company (GE) was selling at 20. Now it is at 10. To get back to 20 from 10 GE has to go up 100%. Not a lot of 100% gains.

IRA#1
None
IRA#2
None

My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
5.79 01-21 FSHCX 102.32 SHealthCareServices
5.22 02-04 FLATX 22.45 LatinAmerica Yes
2.88 03-05 FSUTX 87.88 SUtilities
2.87 04-05 FSTCX 58.94 STelecommunications
2.76 05-04 FBMPX 78.11 SMultimedia
2.70 06-04 FIUIX 26.93 TelecomandUtilities
1.91 07-03 FDFAX 81.12 SConsumerStaples
1.76 08-01 FSDCX 38.11 SCommunicationsEquipment
1.73 09-04 FRIFX 11.68 RealEstateIncome
1.64 10-15 FSMEX 51.49 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
1.36 11-21 FSPHX 25.14 SHealthCare
1.28 12-04 FCONX 10.03 ConservativeIncomeBond
1.02 13-01 FSRPX 15.20 SRetailing
0.68 14-03 FPHAX 20.45 SPharmaceuticals
0.66 15-04 FWRLX 10.27 SWireless
0.52 16-03 FDGFX 28.43 DividendGrowth
0.51 17-02 FRXIX 15.04 RealEstateIndex – Inv
0.47 18-03 FEXPX 20.08 Export&Multinational
0.36 19-01 FEMEX 9.20 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)
0.08 20-04 FGRTX 16.18 MegaCapStock
Last Week
5.08 01-03 FLATX 22.36 LatinAmerica
3.77 02-20 FSHCX 100.06 SHealthCareServices
2.45 03-04 FSUTX 87.38 SUtilities
1.56 04-03 FRIFX 11.65 RealEstateIncome
1.34 05-03 FCONX 10.03 ConservativeIncomeBond
0.63 06-03 FIUIX 26.35 TelecomandUtilities
0.44 07-01 FRXIX 15.03 RealEstateIndex – Inv
-0.51 08-02 FDFAX 79.11 SConsumerStaples
-0.81 09-01 FRESX 40.37 RealEstateInvestment
-1.10 10-14 FSMEX 50.06 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
-1.17 11-03 FBMPX 75.01 SMultimedia
-1.35 12-04 FSTCX 56.44 STelecommunications
-1.43 13-42 FBSOX 60.22 SITServices
-1.56 14-29 FTQGX 24.97 FocusedStock
-1.79 15-02 FPHAX 19.94 SPharmaceuticals
-1.87 16-20 FSPHX 24.32 SHealthCare
-1.95 17-03 FWRLX 10.00 SWireless
-2.01 18-03 FGRTX 15.84 MegaCapStock
-2.07 19-02 FDGFX 27.69 DividendGrowth
-2.16 20-02 FEXPX 19.55 Export&Multinational

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+6% 12m+12% 24m+23% 36m+51% 60m+50% 120m+10%
Aug18 1m+6% 3m+1% 6m+4% 12m+12% 24m+22% 36m+49% 60m+57% 120m+9%
Average annual return since 1/82 12%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SITServices(FBSOX)(14May18)
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+5% 6m+5% 12m+8% 24m+18% 36m+26% 60m+27% 120m+46%
Aug18 1m+4% 3m+4% 6m+4% 12m+7% 24m+18% 36m+25% 60m+29% 120m+44%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

A bad week, a real bad, bad week. The sum of all the deviations has been -157, -155, and now -493 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 00, 00, and now 01.
After the sale of STransportation, I will only have a small investment in HRB (employee stock purchase plan), a small investment PSQ (ETF which is short the QQQ – NASDAQ 100), and SQQQ (ETF which is short the TQQQ – triple the NASDAQ 100).
Those two ETFs are so volitable I am afraid to buy too much. PSQ is up 10.73% and SQQQ is up 31.87% over the last month. SQQQ had a 13% drop on Thursday – they are both volatile and thus I am using their 50 day moving average for a stop loss price.

Sep returns for IRA#1 +1%, IRA#2 +1%, QQQ -3%, TQQQ -8%
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 +6%, IRA#2 +5%, QQQ +6%, TQQQ +17%
For the last 6 months, IRA#1 +6%, IRA#2 +5%, QQQ +8%, TQQQ +22%
For the last 12 months, IRA#1 +12%, IRA#2 +8%, QQQ 18%,
portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – 100% invested – Invested in SRetailing(FSRPX)
IRA#2 – 100% invested – Purchased SMedicalTechnologyandDevices 09/05, STransportation 09/25 – Invested in SITServices(FBSOX), SRetailing(FSRPX), SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX), SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX), STransportation(FSRFX)
QQQ – 00% invested – Sold QQQ on 09/26 – Invested in Cash
TQQQ – 00% invested – Sold TQQQ on 09/26 – Invested in Cash
The TQQQ portfolio was started in Feb18 thus no 12 months return yet (but they should be about 3X the QQQ portfolio).

I listened to a regular quarterly conference call on a review of the financial markets by the Atlantic Group of BB&T in Wednesday. Like all presentations on markets they suggest based on historical data the latest decline was not much. If fact if you had invested as they suggest in one of their portfolios, you missed the technology growth of the past but would be down only a little now. I had a personal conference with one of their representatives about a year ago. I asked how they protect against a market decline. He said they only invest in things which do not go down very much. My view has always been if something is going down, get out. I do not want to pay a management fee to lose money,

I watched an Investors Business Daily (IBD) webinar where IBD discussed three ETFs which had been set up to match the IBD stock tables. The FFTY ETF follows the IBD 50 index. The LDRS ETF follows the IBD ETF Leaders Index. The BOUT ETF follows the IBD Breakout Stock Index. All their indexes have done well, but I disagree with their conclusion that since the EFTs automatically adjust their portfolios to the best performing stocks, they should be held and not sold. My take would be to sell if they cross their respectively 50 day moving average. While they are in the tank now, along with everything else, when this decline ends they should do well. The archived webinar can be found at ttps://www.investors.com/videos/learn-how-ibd-identifies-breakout-stocks/

IRA#1
None
IRA#2
STransportation has a price of 94.30, a sell price 101.50, a rank of 56, and is a sell. (ETF – IYT stopped out 04Oct, XTN stopped out on 01Oct)
STransportation has finally been held for more that 30 days and Fidelity will not have a fit when I sell it.

My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell STransportation

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
5.08 01-03 FLATX 22.36 LatinAmerica
3.77 02-20 FSHCX 100.06 SHealthCareServices
2.45 03-04 FSUTX 87.38 SUtilities
1.56 04-03 FRIFX 11.65 RealEstateIncome
1.34 05-03 FCONX 10.03 ConservativeIncomeBond
0.63 06-03 FIUIX 26.35 TelecomandUtilities
0.44 07-01 FRXIX 15.03 RealEstateIndex – Inv
-0.51 08-02 FDFAX 79.11 SConsumerStaples
-0.81 09-01 FRESX 40.37 RealEstateInvestment
-1.10 10-14 FSMEX 50.06 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
-1.17 11-03 FBMPX 75.01 SMultimedia
-1.35 12-04 FSTCX 56.44 STelecommunications
-1.43 13-42 FBSOX 60.22 SITServices
-1.56 14-29 FTQGX 24.97 FocusedStock
-1.79 15-02 FPHAX 19.94 SPharmaceuticals
-1.87 16-20 FSPHX 24.32 SHealthCare
-1.95 17-03 FWRLX 10.00 SWireless
-2.01 18-03 FGRTX 15.84 MegaCapStock
-2.07 19-02 FDGFX 27.69 DividendGrowth
-2.16 20-02 FEXPX 19.55 Export&Multinational
Last Week
8.41 01-19 FSHCX 104.33 SHealthCareServices
6.07 02-03 FSUTX 90.35 SUtilities
5.06 03-02 FIUIX 27.50 TelecomandUtilities
4.56 04-03 FSTCX 59.86 STelecommunications
2.74 07-01 FPHAX 20.88 SPharmaceuticals
3.76 07-02 FBMPX 78.80 SMultimedia
3.58 08-02 FLATX 21.98 LatinAmerica
2.67 08-19 FSPHX 25.47 SHealthCare
2.65 09-02 FWRLX 10.48 SWireless
2.58 10-13 FSMEX 51.95 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
2.22 11-41 FBSOX 62.50 SITServices
1.91 12-02 FRIFX 11.68 RealEstateIncome
1.67 13-28 FTQGX 25.81 FocusedStock
1.65 14-02 FGRTX 16.45 MegaCapStock
1.49 15-01 FDGFX 28.73 DividendGrowth
1.49 16-06 FDCPX 96.76 SComputers
1.48 17-01 FEXPX 20.30 Export&Multinational
1.41 18-02 FCONX 10.03 ConservativeIncomeBond
1.40 19-01 FDFAX 80.65 SConsumerStaples
1.22 20-01 FGRIX 38.59 Growth&Income

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+6% 12m+12% 24m+23% 36m+51% 60m+50% 120m+10%
Aug18 1m+6% 3m+1% 6m+4% 12m+12% 24m+22% 36m+49% 60m+57% 120m+9%
Average annual return since 1/82 12%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SITServices(FBSOX)(14May18)
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+5% 6m+5% 12m+8% 24m+18% 36m+26% 60m+27% 120m+46%
Aug18 1m+4% 3m+4% 6m+4% 12m+7% 24m+18% 36m+25% 60m+29% 120m+44%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

Not a good week, not a real bad week. The sum of all the deviations has been 241, -157, and now -155 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 01, 00, and now 00.
Statistically a 39 week exponentially smoothed moving average would decrease if positive or increase if negative by about 5%. Thus the change this week from -157 to -155 does not provide an indication that the market is getting better. In addition the fund I removed this week had a -7 deviation and was replaced by a fund with a -1 deviation. No real market improvement based on this indicator.
It is interesting that in January the sum of all the deviations was over 1000. It has been a rather big decline.

Gary Kaltbaum on his 6pm radio show keeps pointing out that any market day which starts out up and declines at the end of the day is a negative indication of what the bigger portfolios managers are doing by selling.

Wealthtrack, the weekly market show, featured James Grant on interest rates. He points out that with interest rates just up a point or two from a excessive period of the lowest interest rates in 3000 year, there are currently 30% of the Russell 2000 index which are not making a profit. His best investment idea is gold until the market falls and then buy bonds which will be selling for 30 and 40 cents on the dollar.

IRA#1
None
IRA#2
STransportation has a price of 98.30, a sell price 101.50, a rank of 49, and is a hold. (ETF – IYT stopped out 04Oct, XTN stopped out on 01Oct)
STransportation has not been owned for 30 days. Next week I can sell if it does not improve.

My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 20% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
8.41 01-19 FSHCX 104.33 SHealthCareServices
6.07 02-03 FSUTX 90.35 SUtilities
5.06 03-02 FIUIX 27.50 TelecomandUtilities
4.56 04-03 FSTCX 59.86 STelecommunications
2.74 07-01 FPHAX 20.88 SPharmaceuticals
3.76 07-02 FBMPX 78.80 SMultimedia
3.58 08-02 FLATX 21.98 LatinAmerica
2.67 08-19 FSPHX 25.47 SHealthCare
2.65 09-02 FWRLX 10.48 SWireless
2.58 10-13 FSMEX 51.95 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
2.22 11-41 FBSOX 62.50 SITServices
1.91 12-02 FRIFX 11.68 RealEstateIncome
1.67 13-28 FTQGX 25.81 FocusedStock
1.65 14-02 FGRTX 16.45 MegaCapStock
1.49 15-01 FDGFX 28.73 DividendGrowth
1.49 16-06 FDCPX 96.76 SComputers
1.48 17-01 FEXPX 20.30 Export&Multinational
1.41 18-02 FCONX 10.03 ConservativeIncomeBond
1.40 19-01 FDFAX 80.65 SConsumerStaples
1.22 20-01 FGRIX 38.59 Growth&Income
Last Week
7.58 01-18 FSHCX 103.07 SHealthCareServices
3.86 02-12 FSMEX 52.53 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
3.85 03-02 FSUTX 88.18 SUtilities
3.72 04-01 FLATX 21.97 LatinAmerica
3.33 05-48 FSRPX 15.55 SRetailing
3.15 06-01 FIUIX 26.93 TelecomandUtilities
2.59 07-02 FSTCX 58.59 STelecommunications
2.04 08-18 FSPHX 25.28 SHealthCare
2.03 09-27 FTQGX 25.88 FocusedStock
1.77 10-40 FBSOX 62.15 SITServices
1.71 11-01 FWRLX 10.37 SWireless
1.59 12-01 FBMPX 77.00 SMultimedia
1.58 13-01 FCONX 10.04 ConservativeIncomeBond
1.54 14-14 FSUIX 14.63 LargeCapGrowthIndex – Inv
1.39 15-05 FDCPX 96.59 SComputers
1.06 16-01 FGRTX 16.34 MegaCapStock
1.06 17-38 FSCSX 18.51 SSoftware&ITServices
1.05 18-01 FRIFX 11.57 RealEstateIncome
0.99 19-01 FLPSX 51.66 Low-Priced Stock
0.74 20-01 FBGRX 94.45 BlueChipGrowth

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
Aug18 1m+6% 3m+1% 6m+4% 12m+12% 24m+22% 36m+49% 60m+57% 120m+9%
Jul18 1m-2% 3m-2% 6m-7% 12m+10% 24m+16% 36m+17% 60m+47% 120m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(02Apr18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SITServices(FBSOX)(14May18)
Aug18 1m+4% 3m+4% 6m+4% 12m+7% 24m+18% 36m+25% 60m+29% 120m+44%
Jul18 1m+0% 3m+1% 6m-3% 12m+6% 24m+11% 36m+13% 60m+19% 120m+40%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

A bad week, a sell week. The sum of all the deviations has been 453, 241, and now -157 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 04, 01, and now 00.
All the ETFs I had been invested in have declined to below their sell price and been sold. All mutual funds will be sold this week – except for the one I have not owned for 30+ days – one of Fidelity’s stupid rules.
One way to tell it is a bad market is to review the top 20 Fidelity funds I follow. Any time a bond fund is in that list (#13) it says stocks are doing poorly.

In his 10/12 radio show, available at BizTalkRadio.com and later on his website garyk.com, Gary Galtbaum suggests you get rid of everything you do not want to watch carefully just in case this market drop is not a simple decline and is really a bear market. He also suggests you should not listen to those who know where the market is going in the future. No one knows.

This market drop reminds me of a year the DJIA was up by 42% on 26Aug, only up 28% on 13Oct, and -9% on 19Oct. After that drop President Reagan signed an executive order setting up the Plunge Protection Team (PPT). There is no evidence the PPT buys investments but some who previously have served on the team have suggested they may call the major banks and ask if they can help stabilize market volatility.

IRA#1
SRetailing has a price of 15.55, a sell price 15.94, a rank of 05, and is a sell. (ETF – XRT stopped out on 24Sep, PEZ stopped out on 02Oct)
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 62.15 a sell price 64.10, a rank of 10, and is a sell. (ETF – XWEB – stopped out 02Oct, XITK – stopped out on 27Jun)
SRetailing has a price of 15.55, a sell price 15.94, a rank of 05, and is a sell. (ETF – XRT stopped out on 24Sep, PEZ stopped out on 02Oct)
SSoftware&ITServices has a price of 18.51, a sell price 18.86, a rank of 17, and is a sell. (ETF – ARKW stopped out on 30Jul & FDN – stopped out on 30Jul)
SMedicalTechnologyandDevices has a price of 52.53, a sell price 53.83, a rank of 02, and is a sell. (ETF – XPH stopped out on 02Oct, ARKG stopped out on 02Oct)
STransportation has a price of 98.83, a sell price 101.50, a rank of 49, and is a hold. (ETF – IYT stopped out 04Oct, XTN stopped out on 01Oct)
Every fund I own has hit its sell price but STransportation has not been owned for 30 days. Fidelity’s rules will limit your future fund purchase if you sell before 30 days. In the past when I’ve sold within 30 days I get a call telling me not to and warning me that another sale will limit future purchases. I always claim that it they knew how to manage funds, they would not lose enough to make me sell.

My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Sell SRetailing
IRA #2 – Sell SITServices, SRetailing, SSoftware&ITServices, and SMedicalTechnologyandDevices

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 20% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
7.58 01-18 FSHCX 103.07 SHealthCareServices
3.86 02-12 FSMEX 52.53 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
3.85 03-02 FSUTX 88.18 SUtilities
3.72 04-01 FLATX 21.97 LatinAmerica
3.33 05-48 FSRPX 15.55 SRetailing
3.15 06-01 FIUIX 26.93 TelecomandUtilities
2.59 07-02 FSTCX 58.59 STelecommunications
2.04 08-18 FSPHX 25.28 SHealthCare
2.03 09-27 FTQGX 25.88 FocusedStock
1.77 10-40 FBSOX 62.15 SITServices
1.71 11-01 FWRLX 10.37 SWireless
1.59 12-01 FBMPX 77.00 SMultimedia
1.58 13-01 FCONX 10.04 ConservativeIncomeBond
1.54 14-14 FSUIX 14.63 LargeCapGrowthIndex – Inv
1.39 15-05 FDCPX 96.59 SComputers
1.06 16-01 FGRTX 16.34 MegaCapStock
1.06 17-38 FSCSX 18.51 SSoftware&ITServices
1.05 18-01 FRIFX 11.57 RealEstateIncome
0.99 19-01 FLPSX 51.66 Low-Priced Stock
0.74 20-01 FBGRX 94.45 BlueChipGrowth
Last Week
11.88 01-17 FSHCX 106.76 SHealthCareServices
8.17 02-11 FSMEX 54.60 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
7.94 03-26 FTQGX 27.35 FocusedStock
7.76 04-04 FSDAX 18.77 SDefense&Aerospace
7.19 05-39 FBSOX 65.40 SITServices
6.76 06-17 FSPHX 26.42 SHealthCare
6.51 07-47 FSRPX 16.00 SRetailing
6.14 08-01 FSTCX 60.54 STelecommunications
5.79 09-13 FSUIX 15.23 LargeCapGrowthIndex – Inv
5.60 10-01 FCYIX 37.26 SIndustrials
5.32 11-01 FGRTX 17.02 MegaCapStock
5.32 12-01 FSUTX 89.24 SUtilities
5.16 13-01 FLCSX 34.28 LargeCapStock
5.10 14-37 FSCSX 19.24 SSoftware&ITServices
5.08 15-01 FSPCX 69.45 SInsurance
5.04 16-01 FUSEX 100.85 500 Index – IC
5.03 17-05 FDCPX 99.99 SComputers
5.03 18-01 FGRIX 40.00 Growth&Income
4.96 19-01 FMAGX 11.14 Magellan
4.92 20-07 FTRNX 111.19 Trend

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
Aug18 1m+6% 3m+1% 6m+4% 12m+12% 24m+22% 36m+49% 60m+57% 120m+9%
Jul18 1m-2% 3m-2% 6m-7% 12m+10% 24m+16% 36m+17% 60m+47% 120m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(02Apr18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SITServices(FBSOX)(14May18)
Aug18 1m+4% 3m+4% 6m+4% 12m+7% 24m+18% 36m+25% 60m+29% 120m+44%
Jul18 1m+0% 3m+1% 6m-3% 12m+6% 24m+11% 36m+13% 60m+19% 120m+40%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 531, 453, and now 241 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 54, 04, and now 01.
Not a time to buy. Except for a few minor positions, all my ETFs have been sold when their stoploss was hit.
Hopefully everything will turn around and start up again.

Bear market math – Stock investors can no longer ignore the next bear market. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/now-is-not-the-time-for-stock-investors-to-ignore-the-next-bear-market-2018-10-01

Jim Rogers had an interesting interview on YouTube – not very encouraging. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRRpfnr8Y9g

IRA#1
SRetailing has a price of 16.00, a sell price 15.94, a rank of 07, and is a hold. (ETF – XRT stopped out on 24Sep, PEZ stopped out on 02Oct)
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 65.40 a sell price 64.10, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – XWEB – stopped out 02Oct, XITK – stopped out on 27Jun)
SRetailing has a price of 16.00, a sell price 15.94, a rank of 07, and is a hold. (ETF – XRT stopped out on 24Sep, PEZ stopped out on 02Oct)
SSoftware&ITServices has a price of 19.24, a sell price 18.86, a rank of 14, and is a hold. (ETF – ARKW stopped out on 30Jul & FDN – stopped out on 30Jul)
SMedicalTechnologyandDevices has a price of 54.60, a sell price 53.83, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – XPH stopped out on 02Oct, ARKG stopped out on 02Oct)
STransportation has a price of 104.68, a sell price 101.50, a rank of 23, and is a hold. (ETF – IYT stopped out 04Oct, XTN stopped out on 01Oct)
None of the funds I own has hit its sell price.

My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
11.88 01-17 FSHCX 106.76 SHealthCareServices
8.17 02-11 FSMEX 54.60 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
7.94 03-26 FTQGX 27.35 FocusedStock
7.76 04-04 FSDAX 18.77 SDefense&Aerospace
7.19 05-39 FBSOX 65.40 SITServices
6.76 06-17 FSPHX 26.42 SHealthCare
6.51 07-47 FSRPX 16.00 SRetailing
6.14 08-01 FSTCX 60.54 STelecommunications
5.79 09-13 FSUIX 15.23 LargeCapGrowthIndex – Inv
5.60 10-01 FCYIX 37.26 SIndustrials
5.32 11-01 FGRTX 17.02 MegaCapStock
5.32 12-01 FSUTX 89.24 SUtilities
5.16 13-01 FLCSX 34.28 LargeCapStock
5.10 14-37 FSCSX 19.24 SSoftware&ITServices
5.08 15-01 FSPCX 69.45 SInsurance
5.04 16-01 FUSEX 100.85 500 Index – IC
5.03 17-05 FDCPX 99.99 SComputers
5.03 18-01 FGRIX 40.00 Growth&Income
4.96 19-01 FMAGX 11.14 Magellan
4.92 20-07 FTRNX 111.19 Trend
Last Week
13.20 01-16 FSHCX 107.35 SHealthCareServices Yes
12.74 02-10 FSMEX 56.66 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
12.09 03-46 FSRPX 16.78 SRetailing
10.80 04-38 FBSOX 67.35 SITServices
10.70 05-25 FTQGX 27.93 FocusedStock
10.63 06-16 FSPHX 27.28 SHealthCare
8.84 07-25 FBGRX 101.74 BlueChipGrowth
8.76 08-25 FOCPX 12.78 OTCPortfolio
8.73 09-36 FSCSX 19.85 SSoftware&ITServices
8.69 10-12 FSUIX 15.60 LargeCapGrowthIndex – Inv
8.54 11-03 FSDAX 18.83 SDefense&Aerospace
8.47 12-04 FDCPX 102.99 SComputers
8.35 13-07 FSDCX 40.51 SCommunicationsEquipment
8.28 14-17 FSCPX 48.00 SConsumerDiscretionary
8.11 15-06 FTRNX 114.28 Trend
7.52 16-01 FNCMX 106.08 NasdaqCompositeIndex
7.45 17-01 FDSVX 37.29 Growth Discovery
7.44 18-01 FLGEX 21.56 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex
7.26 19-01 FCNTX 14.09 Contrafund
7.20 20-01 FSRFX 106.84 STransportation

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(18Jun18)
Aug18 1m+6% 3m+1% 6m+4% 12m+12% 24m+22% 36m+49% 60m+57% 120m+9%
Jul18 1m-2% 3m-2% 6m-7% 12m+10% 24m+16% 36m+17% 60m+47% 120m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(02Apr18)
20% – SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(02Apr18)
20% – SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(05Mar18)
20% – SRetailing(FSRPX)(11Jun18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(05Mar18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(14May18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18)
Aug18 1m+4% 3m+4% 6m+4% 12m+7% 24m+18% 36m+25% 60m+29% 120m+44%
Jul18 1m+0% 3m+1% 6m-3% 12m+6% 24m+11% 36m+13% 60m+19% 120m+40%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 481, 531, and now 453 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 05, 54, and now 04. (1 in the my top 20).
Not a time to buy any fund and I am 100% invested in Fidelity funds anyway.

Aug returns for IRA#1 +6%, IRA#2 +4%, QQQ +6%, TQQQ +18%
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 +2%, IRA#2 +4%, QQQ +10%, TQQQ +29%
For the last 6 months, IRA#1 +5%, IRA#2 +4%, QQQ +11%, TQQQ +33%
For the last 12 months, IRA#1 +12%, IRA#2 +7%, QQQ 21%,
portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – 100% invested – Invested in SRetailing(FSRPX)
IRA#2 – 60% invested – Invested in SITServices(FBSOX), SRetailing(FSRPX), SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)
QQQ – 100% invested – QQQ
TQQQ – 100% invested – TQQQ
The TQQQ portfolio was started in Feb18 thus no 12 months return yet (but they should be about 3X the QQQ portfolio).

Each week Tom McClellan sends out a free chart of the week. This week the chart show Hindenburgs and provided an interesting discussion of this indicator. The chart notes that we have had 10 Hindenburgs the last couple of months which last happened in 2006. https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/

I think Dr Pippa Malmgren is a fantastic and in this interview covers many things including how she thinks the economy will improve for several more years, the digital prison China uses to control its citizens, etc. “Dr Pippa Malmgren on Trump, Social Credit, AI & Virtual Reality” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXYwAuLsGa4

IRA#1
SRetailing has a price of 16.78, a sell price 15.94, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – XRT, PEZ)
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 67.35 a sell price 64.10, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – XWEB – stopped out 28Jun, XITK – stopped out on 27Jun)
SRetailing has a price of 16.78, a sell price 15.94, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – XRT, PEZ)
SSoftware&ITServices has a price of 19.85, a sell price 18.85, a rank of 09, and is a hold. (ETF – ARKW & FDN – stopped out on 30Jul)
SMedicalTechnologyandDevices has a price of 56.66, a sell price 53.83, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – XPH, ARKG)
STransportation has a price of 106.84, a sell price 101.50, a rank of 20, and is a hold. (ETF – IYT, XTN)

My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
13.20 01-16 FSHCX 107.35 SHealthCareServices Yes
12.74 02-10 FSMEX 56.66 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
12.09 03-46 FSRPX 16.78 SRetailing
10.80 04-38 FBSOX 67.35 SITServices
10.70 05-25 FTQGX 27.93 FocusedStock
10.63 06-16 FSPHX 27.28 SHealthCare
8.84 07-25 FBGRX 101.74 BlueChipGrowth
8.76 08-25 FOCPX 12.78 OTCPortfolio
8.73 09-36 FSCSX 19.85 SSoftware&ITServices
8.69 10-12 FSUIX 15.60 LargeCapGrowthIndex – Inv
8.54 11-03 FSDAX 18.83 SDefense&Aerospace
8.47 12-04 FDCPX 102.99 SComputers
8.35 13-07 FSDCX 40.51 SCommunicationsEquipment
8.28 14-17 FSCPX 48.00 SConsumerDiscretionary
8.11 15-06 FTRNX 114.28 Trend
7.52 16-01 FNCMX 106.08 NasdaqCompositeIndex
7.45 17-01 FDSVX 37.29 Growth Discovery
7.44 18-01 FLGEX 21.56 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex
7.26 19-01 FCNTX 14.09 Contrafund
7.20 20-01 FSRFX 106.84 STransportation
Last Week
12.87 01-15 FSHCX 106.29 SHealthCareServices
11.80 02-45 FSRPX 16.63 SRetailing
11.74 03-09 FSMEX 55.78 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
11.64 04-37 FBSOX 67.47 SITServices
9.81 05-24 FTQGX 27.55 FocusedStock
9.54 06-15 FSPHX 26.86 SHealthCare
9.38 07-03 FSRFX 108.59 STransportation Yes
8.89 08-06 FSDCX 40.53 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
8.80 09-02 FSDAX 18.79 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
8.49 10-11 FSUIX 15.50 LargeCapGrowthIndex – Inv
8.40 11-01 FSAIX 85.32 SAirTransportation Yes
8.21 12-16 FSCPX 47.76 SConsumerDiscretionary
8.17 13-01 FSPCX 71.11 SInsurance Yes
8.13 14-35 FSCSX 19.65 SSoftware&ITServices
8.10 15-24 FBGRX 100.58 BlueChipGrowth
7.89 16-01 FCYIX 37.84 SIndustrials Yes
7.81 17-24 FOCPX 12.61 OTCPortfolio
7.66 18-01 FSTCX 60.98 STelecommunications Yes
7.56 19-03 FDCPX 101.67 SComputers
7.36 20-05 FTRNX 113.00 Trend

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(18Jun18)
Aug18 1m+6% 3m+1% 6m+4% 12m+12% 24m+22% 36m+49% 60m+57% 120m+9%
Jul18 1m-2% 3m-2% 6m-7% 12m+10% 24m+16% 36m+17% 60m+47% 120m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(02Apr18)
20% – SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(02Apr18)
20% – SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(05Mar18)
20% – SRetailing(FSRPX)(11Jun18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(05Mar18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(14May18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18)
Aug18 1m+4% 3m+4% 6m+4% 12m+7% 24m+18% 36m+25% 60m+29% 120m+44%
Jul18 1m+0% 3m+1% 6m-3% 12m+6% 24m+11% 36m+13% 60m+19% 120m+40%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

A good week, a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 380, 481, and now 531 – up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 02, 05, and now 54. (8 in the my top 20).
Time to buy STransportation. This is my highest rated buy fund

Macrovoices.com has interesting guest interviews and at the end of the interviews the hosts produce their view of the market and a couple of interesting charts. On the  20Sep show at the end of the interview (65 minutes into the podcast or online) the discussion was about their lastest charts – https://www.macrovoices.com/guest-content/list-guest-publications/2145-bigpicturetrading-chart-book-september-20/file . Their view of the potential future market movements is not wonderful.

IRA#1
SRetailing has a price of 16.63, a sell price 15.81, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – XRT, PEZ)
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 67.47 a sell price 64.10, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – XWEB – stopped out 28Jun, XITK – stopped out on 27Jun)
SRetailing has a price of 16.63, a sell price 15.81, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – XRT, PEZ)
SSoftware&ITServices has a price of 19.65, a sell price 18.82, a rank of 14, and is a hold. (ETF – ARKW & FDN – stopped out on 30Jul)
SMedicalTechnologyandDevices has a price of 55.78, a sell price 53.02, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – XPH, ARKG)
STransportation has a price of 108.29, a sell price TBD, a rank of 07, and is a buy. (ETF – IYT, XTN)

My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Invest 20% in STransportation

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
12.87 01-15 FSHCX 106.29 SHealthCareServices
11.80 02-45 FSRPX 16.63 SRetailing
11.74 03-09 FSMEX 55.78 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
11.64 04-37 FBSOX 67.47 SITServices
9.81 05-24 FTQGX 27.55 FocusedStock
9.54 06-15 FSPHX 26.86 SHealthCare
9.38 07-03 FSRFX 108.59 STransportation Yes
8.89 08-06 FSDCX 40.53 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
8.80 09-02 FSDAX 18.79 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
8.49 10-11 FSUIX 15.50 LargeCapGrowthIndex – Inv
8.40 11-01 FSAIX 85.32 SAirTransportation Yes
8.21 12-16 FSCPX 47.76 SConsumerDiscretionary
8.17 13-01 FSPCX 71.11 SInsurance Yes
8.13 14-35 FSCSX 19.65 SSoftware&ITServices
8.10 15-24 FBGRX 100.58 BlueChipGrowth
7.89 16-01 FCYIX 37.84 SIndustrials Yes
7.81 17-24 FOCPX 12.61 OTCPortfolio
7.66 18-01 FSTCX 60.98 STelecommunications Yes
7.56 19-03 FDCPX 101.67 SComputers
7.36 20-05 FTRNX 113.00 Trend
Last Week
12.56 01-44 FSRPX 16.64 SRetailing
12.49 02-08 FSMEX 55.81 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
12.33 03-14 FSHCX 105.07 SHealthCareServices
12.09 04-36 FBSOX 67.33 SITServices
10.94 05-23 FTQGX 27.69 FocusedStock
10.17 06-14 FSPHX 26.88 SHealthCare
9.45 07-23 FOCPX 12.75 OTCPortfolio
9.19 08-02 FSRFX 107.87 STransportation
9.04 09-10 FSUIX 15.51 LargeCapGrowthIndex – Inv
8.87 10-34 FSCSX 19.70 SSoftware&ITServices
8.86 11-23 FBGRX 100.85 BlueChipGrowth
8.53 12-15 FSCPX 47.69 SConsumerDiscretionary
8.32 13-01 FDCPX 101.98 SComputers
8.32 14-05 FSDCX 40.13 SCommunicationsEquipment
8.31 15-04 FTRNX 113.56 Trend
7.95 16-03 FDSVX 37.17 Growth Discovery
7.88 17-14 FNCMX 105.61 NasdaqCompositeIndex
7.85 18-01 FSDAX 18.54 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
7.61 19-01 FCNTX 14.03 Contrafund
7.57 20-07 FLGEX 21.42 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(18Jun18)
Jul18 1m-2% 3m-2% 6m-7% 12m+10% 24m+16% 36m+17% 60m+47% 120m+3%
Jun18 1m-3% 3m+0% 6m-0% 12m+17% 24m+25% 36m+13% 60m+55% 120m-2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(02Apr18)
20% – SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(02Apr18)
20% – SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(05Mar18)
20% – SRetailing(FSRPX)(11Jun18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(05Mar18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(14May18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18)
Jul18 1m+0% 3m+1% 6m-3% 12m+6% 24m+11% 36m+13% 60m+19% 120m+40%
Jun18 1m-0% 3m+1% 6m-1% 12m+6% 24m+16% 36m+11% 60m+25% 120m+40%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

A good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 563, 380, and now 481 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 78, 02, and now 05. (only 1 in the my top 20).

On the 09/06 of Macro Voices, Karin Katusa suggest uranium will be one of the best investment for the next 3 to 5 years. On the 09/13 show Charlie McElligott said “Phase one is over. The easy money has already been made.” McElligott feels October will be a good up market and as the various federal banks of the world slow up on printing money and start raising rates, the markets will quit going up for several months before the recession hits.

Earlier this week I attended an IRS Forum in Orlando on the new tax laws. The IRS may be telling you the new 1040 (no 1040EZ, 1040A) is only 2 half pages long. However there are 6 (forms 1,2,3,4,5,and 6) new forms which may be required to complete it – IRS.GOV/DRAFTFORMS. If you or friends have self employment, S corporations, or partnerships, proper planning can earn you a 20% additional deduction based on the entities earnings. Also new is the requirement to provide a stock basis report if the S corporation or partnership shows a loss.

IRA#1
SRetailing has a price of 16.64, a sell price 15.81, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XRT, PEZ)
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 67.33 a sell price 63.96, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – XWEB – stopped out 28Jun, XITK – stopped out on 27Jun)
SRetailing has a price of 16.64, a sell price 15.81, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XRT, PEZ)
SSoftware&ITServices has a price of 19.70, a sell price 18.82, a rank of 10, and is a hold. (ETF – ARKW & FDN – stopped out on 30Jul)
SMedicalTechnologyandDevices has a price of 55.81, a sell price 53.02, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – XPH, ARKG)

My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
12.56 01-44 FSRPX 16.64 SRetailing
12.49 02-08 FSMEX 55.81 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
12.33 03-14 FSHCX 105.07 SHealthCareServices
12.09 04-36 FBSOX 67.33 SITServices
10.94 05-23 FTQGX 27.69 FocusedStock
10.17 06-14 FSPHX 26.88 SHealthCare
9.45 07-23 FOCPX 12.75 OTCPortfolio
9.19 08-02 FSRFX 107.87 STransportation
9.04 09-10 FSUIX 15.51 LargeCapGrowthIndex – Inv
8.87 10-34 FSCSX 19.70 SSoftware&ITServices
8.86 11-23 FBGRX 100.85 BlueChipGrowth
8.53 12-15 FSCPX 47.69 SConsumerDiscretionary
8.32 13-01 FDCPX 101.98 SComputers
8.32 14-05 FSDCX 40.13 SCommunicationsEquipment
8.31 15-04 FTRNX 113.56 Trend
7.95 16-03 FDSVX 37.17 Growth Discovery
7.88 17-14 FNCMX 105.61 NasdaqCompositeIndex
7.85 18-01 FSDAX 18.54 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
7.61 19-01 FCNTX 14.03 Contrafund
7.57 20-07 FLGEX 21.42 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex
Last Week
13.13 01-13 FSHCX 105.13 SHealthCareServices
12.29 02-43 FSRPX 16.49 SRetailing
10.40 03-07 FSMEX 54.41 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
10.14 04-35 FBSOX 65.74 SITServices
9.53 05-13 FSPHX 26.58 SHealthCare
9.53 06-22 FTQGX 27.18 FocusedStock
8.14 07-01 FSRFX 106.32 STransportation
7.87 08-04 FSDCX 39.79 SCommunicationsEquipment
7.87 09-09 FSUIX 15.27 LargeCapGrowthIndex – Inv
7.66 10-22 FOCPX 12.96 OTCPortfolio
7.51 11-14 FSCPX 47.03 SConsumerDiscretionary
7.48 12-22 FBGRX 102.87 BlueChipGrowth
7.19 13-04 FDSCX 30.19 StockSelectorSmallCap
7.14 14-03 FTRNX 111.84 Trend
6.89 15-13 FNCMX 104.21 NasdaqCompositeIndex
6.83 17-02 FDSVX 36.63 Growth Discovery
6.82 17-33 FSCSX 19.24 SSoftware&ITServices
6.81 18-01 FRXIX 15.84 RealEstateIndex – Inv
6.74 19-06 FLGEX 21.17 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex
6.64 20-03 FSSPX 22.71 SmallCapIndex – Inv

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(18Jun18)
Jul18 1m-2% 3m-2% 6m-7% 12m+10% 24m+16% 36m+17% 60m+47% 120m+3%
Jun18 1m-3% 3m+0% 6m-0% 12m+17% 24m+25% 36m+13% 60m+55% 120m-2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(05Mar18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(18Jun18) from SEnergy(FSENX)(13Apr18)
20% – SRetailing(FSRPX)(11Jun18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(05Mar18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(14May18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(02Apr18) from EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(FEMEX)(29Jan18)
Jul18 1m+0% 3m+1% 6m-3% 12m+6% 24m+11% 36m+13% 60m+19% 120m+40%
Jun18 1m-0% 3m+1% 6m-1% 12m+6% 24m+16% 36m+11% 60m+25% 120m+40%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 509, 563, and now 380 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 37, 78, and now 02 (none in the my top 20).

Over the last month, foreign stock markets are taking a hit. The IShares ETFs all start with EW so the first 10 are EWA,EWC,EWD,EWG,EWH,EWI,EWJ,EWK,EWL,and EWM. Not one of those ten are up since August 07. Only two out of the next ten, – EWN,EWO,EWP,EWQ,EWS,EWT,EWU,EWW,EWY,EWZ, – are up. EWT – Taiwan – is up 0.32% and EWV – South Korea – is up 0.75%. In a world of falling stock prices, how long can the US market continue up?

In addition to the error I made in last week’s report, I received some emails on a couple of other items. My IRA#2 by the end of July was 60% invested, not the 40% I reported. The reason I did not suggest a purchase of HealthCareServices is that its deviation had not been up two weeks in a row. This may be an indicating it is peaking. In this case it was not since HealthCareServices is up more this week.

IRA#1
SRetailing has a price of 16.49, a sell price 15.78, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – XRT, PEZ)
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 65.74 a sell price 63.60, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – XWEB – stopped out 28Jun, XITK – stopped out on 27Jun)
SRetailing has a price of 16.49, a sell price 15.78, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – XRT, PEZ)
SSoftware&ITServices has a price of 19.24, a sell price 18.82, a rank of 17, and is a hold. (ETF – ARKW & FDN – stopped out on 30Jul)
SMedicalTechnologyandDevices has a price of 54.41, a sell price 51.69, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – XPH, ARKG)

My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
13.13 01-13 FSHCX 105.13 SHealthCareServices
12.29 02-43 FSRPX 16.49 SRetailing
10.40 03-07 FSMEX 54.41 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
10.14 04-35 FBSOX 65.74 SITServices
9.53 05-13 FSPHX 26.58 SHealthCare
9.53 06-22 FTQGX 27.18 FocusedStock
8.14 07-01 FSRFX 106.32 STransportation
7.87 08-04 FSDCX 39.79 SCommunicationsEquipment
7.87 09-09 FSUIX 15.27 LargeCapGrowthIndex – Inv
7.66 10-22 FOCPX 12.96 OTCPortfolio
7.51 11-14 FSCPX 47.03 SConsumerDiscretionary
7.48 12-22 FBGRX 102.87 BlueChipGrowth
7.19 13-04 FDSCX 30.19 StockSelectorSmallCap
7.14 14-03 FTRNX 111.84 Trend
6.89 15-13 FNCMX 104.21 NasdaqCompositeIndex
6.83 17-02 FDSVX 36.63 Growth Discovery
6.82 17-33 FSCSX 19.24 SSoftware&ITServices
6.81 18-01 FRXIX 15.84 RealEstateIndex – Inv
6.74 19-06 FLGEX 21.17 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex
6.64 20-03 FSSPX 22.71 SmallCapIndex – Inv
Last Week
13.85 01-42 FSRPX 16.61 SRetailing Yes
13.58 02-12 FSHCX 104.82 SHealthCareServices
12.77 03-34 FBSOX 66.95 SITServices Yes
12.47 04-32 FCPGX 30.82 SmallCapGrowth Yes
12.05 05-06 FSMEX 54.92 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices Yes
11.86 06-12 FSPHX 27.01 SHealthCare Yes
11.21 07-21 FTQGX 27.46 FocusedStock Yes
11.10 08-21 FOCPX 13.32 OTCPortfolio Yes
10.74 09-21 FBGRX 105.58 BlueChipGrowth Yes
10.66 10-05 FDCPX 103.37 SComputers Yes
10.55 11-03 FSDCX 40.61 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
10.39 12-32 FSCSX 19.81 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
10.09 13-12 FNCMX 106.94 NasdaqCompositeIndex Yes
10.09 14-08 FSUIX 15.52 LargeCapGrowthIndex – Inv Yes
9.65 15-02 FTRNX 114.03 Trend Yes
9.54 16-13 FSCPX 47.73 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
9.29 17-01 FDSVX 37.34 Growth Discovery Yes
9.19 18-05 FLGEX 21.58 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex Yes
8.74 19-03 FDSCX 30.51 StockSelectorSmallCap
8.71 20-02 FSSPX 23.07 SmallCapIndex – Inv Yes

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(18Jun18)
Jul18 1m-2% 3m-2% 6m-7% 12m+10% 24m+16% 36m+17% 60m+47% 120m+3%
Jun18 1m-3% 3m+0% 6m-0% 12m+17% 24m+25% 36m+13% 60m+55% 120m-2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(05Mar18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(18Jun18) from SEnergy(FSENX)(13Apr18)
20% – SRetailing(FSRPX)(11Jun18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(05Mar18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(14May18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(02Apr18) from EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(FEMEX)(29Jan18)
Jul18 1m+0% 3m+1% 6m-3% 12m+6% 24m+11% 36m+13% 60m+19% 120m+40%
Jun18 1m-0% 3m+1% 6m-1% 12m+6% 24m+16% 36m+11% 60m+25% 120m+40%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

***** I made an error in this report by suggesting purchase of a closed mutual fund. Instead I am buying FSMEX and suggest ETFs XPH and ARKG.

A good week, a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 381, 509, and now 563 – up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 11, 37, and now 78.

Jul returns for IRA#1 -2%, IRA#2 +0%, QQQ +3%, TQQQ +8%
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 -2%, IRA#2 +1%, QQQ +5%, TQQQ +13%
For the last 6 months, IRA#1 -7%, IRA#2 -3%, QQQ -1%,
For the last 12 months, IRA#1 10%, IRA#2 6%, QQQ 17%,
portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – 100% invested – Purchased SRetailing(FSRPX)(17Jul18)
IRA#2 – 40% invested – Purchased SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(17Jul18)
QQQ – 100% invested – QQQ
TQQQ – 100% invested – TQQQ
The TQQQ portfolio was started in Feb18 thus no 6 or 12 months return yet (but they should be about 3X the QQQ portfolio).

On Investors Edge on 29Aug, Adam substituting for Gary Kaltbaum discussed a climax run. It was an interesting show and he suggested we may be in another climax run – sort of like 1926-1929, and 1998-2000. However after the climax run, look out below.

On Twitter on 26Aug, Dr. Pippa Malmgren tweeted “People are preparing for a market melt-down. But I’ve been arguing that it melts-up quite a lot first.” .

So how much should a local government give to the richest man (100B+) in the world to locate his second headquarters locally? Maryland is giving 8.5B, NJ is giving 8B, the other 18 localities refused to disclose. It seems the governments have decided to give away billions which will have to be made up in taxes from the local residents – but the residents are not told and are told they do not have a right to know. The theory is the location of HQ2 will bring in enough growth to pay for it – maybe.

IRA#1
SRetailing has a price of 16.61, a sell price 15.78, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XRT, PEZ)
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 66.95 a sell price 63.60, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – XWEB – stopped out 28Jun, XITK – stopped out on 27Jun)
SRetailing has a price of 16.61, a sell price 15.78, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XRT, PEZ)
SSoftware&ITServices has a price of 19.81, a sell price 18.82, a rank of 12, and is a hold. (ETF – ARKW & FDN – stopped out on 30Jul)
SmallCapGrowth has a price of 30.82, a sell price TBD, a rank of 04, and is a buy. (ETF – IJT, RZG)

My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Purchase 20% SmallCapGrowth(FCPGX)

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
13.85 01-42 FSRPX 16.61 SRetailing Yes
13.58 02-12 FSHCX 104.82 SHealthCareServices
12.77 03-34 FBSOX 66.95 SITServices Yes
12.47 04-32 FCPGX 30.82 SmallCapGrowth Yes
12.05 05-06 FSMEX 54.92 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices Yes
11.86 06-12 FSPHX 27.01 SHealthCare Yes
11.21 07-21 FTQGX 27.46 FocusedStock Yes
11.10 08-21 FOCPX 13.32 OTCPortfolio Yes
10.74 09-21 FBGRX 105.58 BlueChipGrowth Yes
10.66 10-05 FDCPX 103.37 SComputers Yes
10.55 11-03 FSDCX 40.61 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
10.39 12-32 FSCSX 19.81 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
10.09 13-12 FNCMX 106.94 NasdaqCompositeIndex Yes
10.09 14-08 FSUIX 15.52 LargeCapGrowthIndex – Inv Yes
9.65 15-02 FTRNX 114.03 Trend Yes
9.54 16-13 FSCPX 47.73 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
9.29 17-01 FDSVX 37.34 Growth Discovery Yes
9.19 18-05 FLGEX 21.58 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex Yes
8.74 19-03 FDSCX 30.51 StockSelectorSmallCap
8.71 20-02 FSSPX 23.07 SmallCapIndex – Inv Yes
Last Week
13.16 01-41 FSRPX 16.39 SRetailing
11.95 02-11 FSHCX 102.57 SHealthCareServices
11.64 03-33 FBSOX 65.83 SITServices Yes
11.30 04-31 FCPGX 30.30 SmallCapGrowth
10.24 05-05 FSMEX 53.69 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices Yes
9.98 06-31 FSCSX 19.63 SSoftware&ITServices
9.90 07-20 FOCPX 13.10 OTCPortfolio
9.90 08-11 FSPHX 26.37 SHealthCare Yes
9.83 09-02 FSDCX 40.12 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
9.40 10-20 FBGRX 103.71 BlueChipGrowth
9.39 11-20 FTQGX 26.85 FocusedStock
8.82 12-07 FSUIX 15.26 LargeCapGrowthIndex – Inv
8.66 13-12 FSCPX 47.11 SConsumerDiscretionary
8.52 14-02 FDSCX 30.31 StockSelectorSmallCap
8.49 15-04 FSRFX 105.72 STransportation Yes
8.46 16-11 FNCMX 104.80 NasdaqCompositeIndex
8.22 17-01 FSSPX 22.86 SmallCapIndex – Inv Yes
8.13 18-01 FTRNX 111.88 Trend
8.10 19-04 FLGEX 21.26 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex
8.10 20-04 FDCPX 100.41 SComputers Yes

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(18Jun18)
Jul18 1m-2% 3m-2% 6m-7% 12m+10% 24m+16% 36m+17% 60m+47% 120m+3%
Jun18 1m-3% 3m+0% 6m-0% 12m+17% 24m+25% 36m+13% 60m+55% 120m-2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(05Mar18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(18Jun18) from SEnergy(FSENX)(13Apr18)
20% – SRetailing(FSRPX)(11Jun18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(05Mar18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(14May18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(02Apr18) from EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(FEMEX)(29Jan18)
Jul18 1m+0% 3m+1% 6m-3% 12m+6% 24m+11% 36m+13% 60m+19% 120m+40%
Jun18 1m-0% 3m+1% 6m-1% 12m+6% 24m+16% 36m+11% 60m+25% 120m+40%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%