A nice week – not a good week. The various emerging market funds retreated and the rest of the funds increased a little. Only two funds are on the potential buy list out of the 110 I follow – InternationalDiscovery #83 and SLeasure #10.
One of the more interesting podcasts I’ve found is Macro Voices. They present an interesting view aspects of the market. It is well worth a listen.
“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com:
On Friday, 24Mar, the short term outlook is neutral to bearish, intermediate term outlook is bearish, long term outlook bullish.
On Friday, 31Mar, the short term outlook is neutral to bullish, intermediate term outlook is neutral, long term outlook bullish.
My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 90.82, 50 day MA of 89.90, a 200 day MA of 84.92, and a 7% stop loss is 85.81. This is not an investment to buy and hold but then there are no investments to buy and hold.
Over the last 3 months, SPY (capitalization weighted S&P500) has outperformed RPS (equal weighted S&P500). This is a little ominous because it suggests the larger 500 are performing better than the average 500. Often the leading stocks continue to go up while the average stocks go down and eventually the leading stocks follow. On the NYSE from a high of 72%+ in Feb, the number of stocks showing bullish action has fallen to 65%. On the Nasdaq the number has fallen from 67% to 61%. Just something to watch.
IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend Under Pressure” as of 21Mar. Not a time to invest.
My current investments:
IRA#1 – not invested – 100% cash
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 104.62, a sell price 99.39, a rank of 03, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 74.14)
SBiotechnology has a price of 201.53, a sell price 197.59, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – XBI – current stoploss 67.26)
SComputers has a price of 56.01, a sell price 81.71, a rank of of 01, and is a hold (ETF – PSI- current stoploss 38.85)
60% mutual funds – 40% cash
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2
weeks).
This week:
14.01 01-11 FDCPX 86.01 SComputers
13.86 02-14 FBIOX 201.53 SBiotechnology
12.65 03-39 FSELX 104.62 SSemiconductors
12.61 04-10 FSPTX 152.79 STechnology
11.32 05-11 FSCHX 165.26 SChemicals
10.09 06-06 FWRLX 9.42 SWireless
9.87 07-08 FOCPX 94.16 OTCPortfolio
9.41 08-01 FARNX 13.83 EventDrivenOpportunities
9.31 09-03 FHKCX 27.44 ChinaReqion
8.81 10-01 FDLSX 146.56 SLeisure Portfolio Yes
8.75 11-07 FNCMX 77.74 NasdaqCompositeIndex
8.65 12-03 FSEAX 35.34 EmergingAsia
8.63 13-02 FSAGX 21.02 SGold
8.62 14-02 FLATX 21.90 LatinAmerica
8.51 15-20 FSHCX 88.66 SHealthCareServices
8.47 16-08 FSLEX 24.24 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
8.46 17-02 FEDDX 13.16 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
8.42 18-01 FBGRX 75.32 BlueChipGrowth
8.22 19-01 FSRBX 32.25 SBanking
8.13 20-01 FCPGX 22.35 SmallCapGrowth
Last week:
13.75 01-13 FBIOX 199.87 SBiotechnology
12.36 02-10 FDCPX 84.14 SComputers
12.33 03-38 FSELX 103.63 SSemiconductors
12.28 04-09 FSPTX 151.34 STechnology
10.57 05-02 FHKCX 27.62 ChinaReqion Yes
10.33 06-05 FWRLX 9.39 SWireless
10.16 07-01 FSAGX 21.22 SGold
9.46 08-02 FSEAX 35.44 EmergingAsia Yes
9.35 09-10 FSCHX 161.36 SChemicals
9.11 10-01 FEMEX 8.94 EmergingEMEA Yes
8.61 11-01 FEDDX 13.12 EmergingMarketsDiscovery Yes
8.32 12-01 FEMKX 25.45 EmergingMarkets Yes
8.28 13-01 FTEMX 11.91 TotalEmergingMarkets Yes
8.25 14-07 FOCPX 92.29 OTCPortfolio
8.24 15-19 FSHCX 88.04 SHealthCareServices
8.14 16-07 FSLEX 24.06 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
8.01 17-01 FLATX 21.68 LatinAmerica
7.72 18-01 FPEMX 9.58 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC Yes
7.69 19-06 FNCMX 76.63 NasdaqCompositeIndex
7.68 20-01 FSDCX 34.39 SCommunicationsEquipment
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
Feb17 1m+3% 3m10% 6m+3% 12m+36% 24m+0% 36m+15% 60m+59% 120m-4%
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+1% 12m+32% 24m+2% 36m+14% 60m+56% 120m-7%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – SBiotechnology(FBIOX)(16Jan17) from SComputers(FDCPX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Feb17 1m+4% 3m+8% 6m+7% 12m21% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+18% 120m+31%
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+0% 12m16% 24m+10% 36m+12% 60m+17% 120m+20%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%