Based on a study by Ned Davis, since 1928 the market the S&P 500 has fallen 5% or more 294 times, 10% or more 94 times, 20% or more 24 times. That says about 3+ times a year, it falls 5% or more, one time a year 10% or more, and every 4 years 20%+. Perhaps this is the time, but since the high in January to the low in January, the S&P500 has only fallen 4.2%. Not very exciting yet. However, the 10Jan14 MoneyLife show, which Chuck Jaffe produces daily, featured Brad Lamensdorf, Co-Portfolio Manger of the Ranger Equity Bear ETF (HDGE). He points out that the sentiment measures are at 30 year extremes, the bear survey is the lowest it has been for the last 30 year, the bull sentiment is the at 73% after which the market averages a 16% fall, and he thinks it is time to cash out. The next correction is going to be “very brutal.”
IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Market in Correction” – not a time to invest.
My current investments:
SAutomotive has a price of $53.73, a sell price $53.51, a relative rank of 70, and will be sold when I need to exchange it for another fund or it passes the sell price.
Nordic has a price of 42.88, a sell price 42.75, a relative rank of 18, and is a hold.
SSoftware&ComputerServices has a price of 118.53, a sell price 114.22, a relative rank of 03, and is a hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 59.51, a sell price 58.74, a relative rank of 07, and is a hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 205.55, a sell price 197.07, a relative rank of 01, and is a hold.
Every fund is close to selling, but not there yet.
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested