Way back in September 2008 Lehman Brothers went bankrupt because there was no firm left to buy it at fire sale prices like Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, and others who were purchased by other firms with the help of tons of US Treasury dollars. Probably the overriding cause was the use of leverage and derivatives. Deutsche Bank, the largest bank in Germany, now have a ratio of about 3T in assets to 55T in derivatives. The stock price, when compared to Lehman Brothers price back in 06-08 is almost the same. Deutache Bank’s stock price is down about 80% in 2 years. It is the biggest bank in Germany with about 3 times the assets as the second biggest bank. And the US Treasury has recently hit the bank with a 15B dollar fine. Anyone see a problem in banks coming (again)?
So I wrote the above comments on Monday. Then on Thursday Deutache Bank caused a big market decline. On Friday there was a fix in to save the bank and the market went up. Friday Germany’s second bank, Commerzbank, suspended its divided and will cut 1/5 of their employees with a 9,000 layoff. Things do not look good in the land of big German banks.
IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed uptrend” as of 21Sep. Time to invest. I continue to be surprised that the market is going up. There are so many negatives but as long as the various countries continue to keep rates low or negative it looks like the market will continue up.
My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 43.16, a sell price of 41.36, a rank of 06, and is a hold. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 136.01)
IRA#2
SElectronics has a price of 92.69, a sell price 88.06, a rank of 01, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 64.61)
SNaturalGas has a price of 26.94, a sell price 25.59, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – PSCE – stopped out on 9/13, purchased again on 10/3)
SComputers has a price of 78.20, a sell price TBD, a rank of 02, and is a buy. (ETF – SOXX – purchased on 10/3)
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Purchase SComputers FDCPX
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
17.69 01-13 FSELX 92.69 SElectronics
10.93 02-09 FDCPX 78.20 SComputers Yes
10.82 03-11 FSPTX 135.10 STechnology Yes
10.45 04-11 FSDCX 32.28 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
10.32 05-01 FSNGX 26.94 SNaturalGas Yes
9.88 06-25 FSMEX 43.16 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
9.68 07-38 FSAGX 24.54 SGold
9.56 08-01 FSENX 44.16 SEnergy Yes
8.93 09-01 FNARX 29.47 SNaturalResources Yes
8.51 10-11 FSCSX 135.18 SSoftware&ITServices
8.14 11-14 FTEMX 11.39 TotalEmergingMarkets
7.69 12-04 FISMX 24.90 InternationalSmallCap Yes
7.60 13-04 FPBFX 29.58 PacificBasin
7.45 14-11 FOCPX 87.13 OTCPortfolio
7.33 15-15 FLATX 21.09 LatinAmerica
7.19 16-03 FJPNX 12.69 Japan
7.10 17-02 FJSCX 15.46 JapanSmallerCompanies Yes
6.99 18-03 FCPGX 20.39 SmallCapGrowth
6.87 19-01 FSLEX 21.55 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy Yes
6.65 20-01 FNCMX 70.18 NasdaqCompositeIndex
Last week
14.07 01-12 FSELX 89.00 SElectronics
13.48 02-34 FSAGX 25.26 SGold
11.42 03-24 FSMEX 43.54 SMedicalEquipment&Systems Yes
10.82 04-10 FSPTX 134.33 STechnology Yes
9.93 05-08 FDCPX 77.05 SComputers Yes
9.48 06-20 FBIOX 197.51 SBiotechnology Yes
9.08 07-13 FTEMX 11.44 TotalEmergingMarkets
8.91 08-10 FSCSX 135.07 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
8.55 09-10 FOCPX 87.67 OTCPortfolio Yes
8.24 10-10 FSDCX 31.46 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
8.16 11-14 FLATX 21.17 LatinAmerica
7.96 12-03 FPBFX 29.56 PacificBasin
7.93 13-01 FJPNX 12.73 Japan
7.47 14-03 FISMX 24.75 InternationalSmallCap
7.38 15-01 FEMEX 8.20 EmergingEMEA
7.36 16-09 FEMKX 24.77 EmergingMarkets
7.23 17-02 FCPGX 20.36 SmallCapGrowth Yes
6.96 18-02 FCPEX 12.85 SmallCapEnchancedIndex Yes
6.92 19-05 FSLBX 61.45 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
6.88 20-01 FJSCX 15.37 JapanSmallerCompanies
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Aug16 1m+1% 3m+14% 6m+31% 12m+22% 24m+7% 36m+29% 60m51% 120m+9%
Jul16 1m-6% 3m-7% 6m+16% 12m-10% 24-1% 36m+13% 60m+8% 120m-2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(19Sep16) from LatinAmreica(FLATX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(29Aug16) from SGold(FSAGX)
20% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – RealEstateInvestmentPortfolio(FRESX)(21Mar16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – Telecom&Utilities(FIUIX)(14Mar16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Aug16 1m-2% 3m+8% 6m+13% 12m+6% 24m+6% 36m+9% 60m+18% 120m+22%
Jul16 1m-6% 3m-1% 6m+4% 12m-9% 24m-1% 36m-9% 60m+2% 120m+14%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%