A good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -221, -467, and now -164 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 05, 00, and now 00.
In reviewing some of the market indicators, SPY (S&P500 ETF) crossed below its 50 day moving average on 12Oct, QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) crossed below its 50 day moving average on 06Oct, IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) crossed below its 50 day moving average on 28Sep, and my sum of all the deviations went negative on 12Oct. They still say do not buy.
Not much interesting news on my podcasts. Most say we are in a bull market and the rest say bear. It sort of reminds me of 2008 when every week you would hear another bank was closed or merged while at the same time the government was saying everything is great. I still feel there was so many crooks ignored in 2008. You can’t have so many banks going out of business for bad/illegal activities and no one went to Jail.
Oct returns for IRA#1 -8%, IRA#2 -9%, QQQ +1%, TQQQ +1%
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 -1%, IRA#2 -5%, QQQ +4%, TQQQ +9%
For the last 6 months, IRA#1 -3%, IRA#2 -4%, QQQ +9%, TQQQ +23%
For the last 12 months, IRA#1 -3%, IRA#2 -4%, QQQ 14%,
portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – 00% invested – Sold in SRetailing(FSRPX) on 10/16
IRA#2 – 00% invested – Sold in SRetailing(FSRPX), SSoftware&ITSvc(FSCSX), SITServices(FBSOX), and SMedTechnology&Devices(FSMEX) on 10/16, Sold STransport(FSRFX) on
QQQ – 100% invested – Purchased PSQ (short QQQ) on 10/26
TQQQ – 100% invested – Purchased SQQQ (short TQQQ) on 10/26
I should have purchased PSQ, and SQQQ earlier but I was not watching the 50 day moving average.
The TQQQ portfolio was started in Feb18 thus no 12 months return yet (but they should be about 3X the QQQ portfolio).
October lived up to its reputation – one of the worst months in the year.
SHealthCareServices has a price of 108.26, a sell price 102.85, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – IHF, XLV)
It sure would be nice if the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board came out every Wednesday and changed one word in his speech, making the market go up like his did this week.
My investment changes this weekend.
IRA#1
None
IRA#2
None
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 20% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
10.06 01-25 FSHCX 108.26 SHealthCareServices
4.40 02-06 FSRNX 15.76 RealEstateIndex
3.82 03-19 FSMEX 52.86 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
3.78 04-08 FLATX 22.29 LatinAmerica
3.33 05-09 FSTCX 59.46 STelecommunications
3.26 06-01 FBMPX 78.81 SMultimedia
3.19 07-04 FSPHX 25.68 SHealthCare
3.07 08-03 FDLSX 16.07 SLeisure
2.95 09-07 FPHAX 21.01 SPharmaceuticals
2.63 10-08 FIUIX 27.05 TelecomandUtilities
2.41 11-09 FSUTX 87.99 SUtilities
2.09 12-03 FEMEX 9.37 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)
2.04 13-03 FSRFX 101.53 STransportation
2.02 14-04 FRESX 41.73 RealEstateInvestment
1.94 15-08 FRIFX 11.76 RealEstateIncome
1.72 16-07 FEXPX 20.38 Export&Multinational
1.68 17-07 FDGFX 28.83 DividendGrowth
1.37 18-02 FSAIX 79.58 SAirTransportation
1.31 19-07 FDFAX 80.92 SConsumerStaples
1.03 20-01 FTQGX 25.62 FocusedStock
Last Week
4.20 01-24 FSHCX 101.96 SHealthCareServices
3.18 02-05 FSRNX 15.54 RealEstateIndex
2.13 03-03 FRESX 41.73 RealEstateInvestment
1.87 04-07 FRIFX 11.74 RealEstateIncome
1.16 05-08 FSUTX 86.81 SUtilities
1.11 06-02 FCONX 10.03 ConservativeIncomeBond
0.82 07-07 FLATX 21.61 LatinAmerica
0.66 08-06 FPHAX 20.51 SPharmaceuticals
0.53 09-07 FIUIX 26.46 TelecomandUtilities
0.30 10-08 FSTCX 57.62 STelecommunications
-0.25 11-06 FDFAX 79.62 SConsumerStaples
-0.53 12-02 FEMEX 9.12 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)
-0.87 13-02 FDLSX 15.43 SLeisure
-1.11 14-18 FSMEX 50.25 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
-1.19 15-01 FSPCX 65.06 SInsurance
-1.29 16-06 FEXPX 19.76 Export&Multinational
-1.30 17-06 FDGFX 27.96 DividendGrowth
-1.33 18-02 FSRFX 98.08 STransportation
-1.39 19-03 FSPHX 24.50 SHealthCare
-1.39 20-01 FSAIX 77.36 SAirTransportationityIndex
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18) from Cash(15Oct18)
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+6% 12m+12% 24m+23% 36m+51% 60m+50% 120m+10%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+2%
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+5% 6m+5% 12m+8% 24m+18% 36m+26% 60m+27% 120m+46%%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%