Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 918, 781, and now -343 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 94, 03, and now 00.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 9% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 7% below its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 11% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ is above its 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is negative.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.
It was an interesting week as the market sold off every day. The ETFs I owned (except for PTNQ) were all previously sold or sold this week as the share price of the ETF declined. The slow down in the economy is probably due to the coronavirus. The latest news on that indicates the economy will continue to decline. As the economy declines, the market will decline also.
There are ETFs which go up as the market goes down.
SH is the inverse of SPY and is 10% above its 50 day average.
PSQ is the inverse of QQQ and is 6% above its 50 day average.
RWM is the inverse of IWM and is 12% above its 50 day average.
There are even ETFs that go up (or down) 3 times faster than an index. SQQQ is triple short QQQ ETF and is up 37% the last 5 days. ETFSCREEN.COM reports on over 2000 ETFs.
Last week PTNQ (which follows the NASDAQ 100 index ) was 16% above the its 200 day moving average. After this week’s decline price decline and the increase in the 200 day moving average it is 4% above its moving average. It is programmed to start switching to US Treasury bills when the NASDAQ 100 crosses its 200 day moving average.
IRA#1
STechnology has a price of 19.66, a sell price 21.22, a rank of 01, and is a hold until 3/19/20. (ETF – FTXL, SOXX)
IRA#2
SWireless has a price of 10.70, a sell price 11.36, a rank of 07, and is a sell. (ETF – IYZ, XTL)
STechnology has a price of 19.66, a sell price 21.22, a rank of 01, and is a sell. (ETF – FTXL, SOXX)
SSemiconductors has a price of 11.47, a sell price 12.51, a rank of 03, and is a hold until 3/19/20 (ETF – XLK, IETC )
IRA#1 STechnology and IRA#2 Semiconductors were purchased on 2/18 and cannot be sold before 3/19 without breaking the Fidelity rules againest short term trading.
My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell SWireless and STechnology
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 20% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
4.71 01-40 FSPTX 19.66 STechnology NO
4.43 02-01 FHKCX 38.41 ChinaRegion NO
3.58 03-01 FSEAX 44.55 EmergingAsia NO
3.55 04-04 FBIOX 21.02 SBiotechnology NO
3.35 05-37 FSCSX 19.90 SSoftware&ITServices NO
2.02 06-36 FSELX 11.47 SSemiconductors NO
1.63 07-29 FWRLX 10.70 SWireless NO
1.11 08-16 FDCPX 78.64 SComputers NO
1.07 09-16 FOCPX 12.31 OTCPortfolio NO
0.76 10-01 FCVSX 30.27 ConvertibleSecurities NO
0.74 11-09 FTRNX 103.57 Trend NO
0.72 12-01 FRIFX 12.33 RealEstateIncome NO
0.27 13-08 FBGRX 104.70 BlueChipGrowth NO
0.20 14-06 FBSOX 73.65 SITServices NO
0.18 15-06 FSAVX 34.98 SAutomotive NO
0.13 16-11 FNCMX 107.56 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
(0.15) 17-02 FSAGX 22.33 SGold NO
(0.24) 18-01 FEMKX 32.75 EmergingMarkets NO
(0.46) 19-01 FIVFX 21.77 InternationalCapApp NO
(0.49) 20-01 FDEGX 47.96 Growth Strategies NO
Last Week
16.30 01-01 FSAGX 26.01 SGold YES
16.29 02-19 FSPTX 21.78 STechnology NO
15.66 03-36 FSELX 12.99 SSemiconductors NO
15.08 04-05 FSAVX 40.18 SAutomotive YES
14.41 05-07 FSCSX 21.99 SSoftware&ITServices NO
13.98 06-03 FSHCX 111.36 SHealthCareServices YES
13.17 07-03 FBIOX 22.93 SBiotechnology NO
12.90 08-06 FBSOX 82.97 SITServices NO
12.67 09-07 FBGRX 117.63 BlueChipGrowth NO
12.63 10-15 FOCPX 13.71 OTCPortfolio NO
12.58 11-08 FTRNX 115.70 Trend NO
12.18 12-28 FWRLX 11.80 SWireless NO
11.96 13-10 FNCMX 120.26 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
11.52 14-01 FDEGX 53.76 Growth Strategies NO
11.46 15-01 FSHOX 66.98 SConstructionandHousing NO
11.29 16-01 FPHAX 23.89 SPharmaceuticals NO
10.94 17-06 FFIDX 53.94 Fidelity NO
10.90 18-03 FDEQX 42.69 DisciplinedEquity NO
10.88 19-15 FDCPX 86.19 SComputers NO
10.86 20-01 FDCAX 36.18 CapitalAppreciation NO
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(18Feb20) from Cash(03Feb20)
Nov19 1m+6% 3m-0% 6m+23% 12m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(18Feb20) from Cash(03Feb20)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SHealthCareServices(09Dec19)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SComputers(16Dec19)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(21Jan20) from SAutomotive(FSAVX)(28Oct19)
20% – SWireless(FWRLX)(21Oct19) from Cash(26Aug19)
Nov19 1m+1% 3m+1% 6m+8% 12m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%