Not a good week, a sell week. The sum of all the deviations has been 799, 654, and now 140 – definitely not up two weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 02, 01, and now 00.
MacroVoices featured Jeffery Snider on Thursday’s podcast. He feels this is the most challenging market since the 1930s. After the interview, the sponsors, Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna, discussed a few possible scenarios. They suggested that after the equity market rebounds from a test of the Feb low, a short squeeze in the bond market will send interest rates down, causing new all time highs in the equity market. Then the bond short squeeze ends, interest rates will rebound, scaring equities, and the equity bear market will begin long about September. Just one view. But many feel we are just in a long rounding market top.
I am currently 3.44% invested and the rest in cash. I do not know the market direction, but it does not look like up to me.
IRA#1
Cash
IRA#2
SRetailing has a price of 138.98, a sell price 141.45, a rank of 01, and is a sell. (ETF – RTH – stopped out)
EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica has a price of 10.77, a sell price 10.74, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – EMQQ – stopped out)
As the market declined, SRetailing dropped to way below its sell price and I am selling.
EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica is only $0.03 above its sell like. It is not a quite a sell yet.
If it hadn’t been for Fidelity’s stupid sell rules, I would have sold both last month.
My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell SReailing
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 20% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
7.89 01-19 FSRPX 138.98 SRetailing
7.84 02-10 FSDAX 176.69 SDefense&Aerospace
7.82 03-14 FEMEX 10.77 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica
7.12 04-05 FSELX 115.95 SSemiconductors
6.84 05-06 FCPGX 26.23 SmallCapGrowth
6.56 06-07 FSDCX 38.26 SCommunicationsEquipment
6.51 07-01 FCONX 10.03 ConservativeIncomeBond
6.32 08-11 FBSOX 57.11 SITServices
5.91 09-08 FSPTX 187.81 STechnology
5.45 10-01 FSCOX 19.73 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
5.10 11-15 FHKCX 36.47 ChinaReqion
4.66 12-01 FEDDX 15.68 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
4.58 13-11 FTQGX 23.47 FocusedStock
4.56 14-01 FLATX 26.79 LatinAmerica
4.17 15-06 FOCPX 113.08 OTCPortfolio
4.06 16-09 FSCSX 170.25 SSoftware&ITServices
3.91 17-09 FBGRX 89.83 BlueChipGrowth
3.83 18-01 FSCPX 42.23 SConsumerDiscretionary
3.63 19-01 FPEMX 11.45 EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC
3.16 20-01 FEMKX 32.49 EmergingMarkets
Last week:
14.99 01-08 FSCSX 187.73 SSoftware&ITServices
14.86 02-04 FSELX 123.86 SSemiconductors
13.27 03-07 FSPTX 200.23 STechnology
12.93 04-06 FSDCX 40.41 SCommunicationsEquipment
12.92 05-18 FSRPX 144.86 SRetailing
12.91 06-10 FBSOX 60.45 SITServices
11.86 07-14 FHKCX 38.71 ChinaReqion
11.40 08-10 FTQGX 24.94 FocusedStock
11.39 09-05 FCPGX 27.25 SmallCapGrowth
11.28 10-05 FOCPX 120.53 OTCPortfolio
10.78 11-03 FSLBX 87.05 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
10.72 12-02 FDCPX 96.26 SComputers
10.62 13-08 FBGRX 95.43 BlueChipGrowth
10.35 14-08 FCNTX 131.47 Contrafund
10.26 15-09 FSDAX 179.90 SDefense&Aerospace
10.06 16-03 FNCMX 98.29 NasdaqCompositeIndex
9.59 17-02 FTRNX 105.35 Trend
9.23 18-02 FSUIX 14.24 LargeCapGrowthIndex – IC
9.18 19-01 FDCAX 37.71 CapitalAppreciation
9.17 20-13 FEMEX 10.86 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(26Dec17)
Jan17 1m+6% 3m+5% 6m+18% 12m+24% 24m+63% 36m+27% 60m+89% 120m+18%
Dec17 1m-1% 3m+7% 6m+18% 12m+18% 24m+46% 36m+28% 60m+92% 120m-5%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(26Mar18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jan18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(05Mar18) from SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement(FSLBX)(22Jan18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18) from EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC(FPEMX)(24Jul17)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(26Dec17)
20% – EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(FEMEX)(29Jan18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jan17 1m+3% 3m+4% 6m+9% 12m+15% 24m+33% 36m+26% 60m+36% 120m+44%
Dec17 1m-0% 3m+4% 6m+7% 12m+13% 24m+23% 36m+22% 60m+35% 120m+41%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%