I hope you all had a very Merry Christmas. This is late, but the market is closed on Monday.
Future Money trends produces a podcast I listen to regularly. Most of the time they are pushing some penny stocks on the Toronto Stock Exchange. However earlier this week they produced a fantastic interview with David Stockman – best known as President Reagan’s budget director. You should listed to it. Over the last 8 years the annual federal budget has had a deficit than 1.1T per year and yet never had an economy grow at 3% per year. The Federal Reserve Board has been printing money to support that. Obviously unless that continues and gets worse the the economy will tank along with the market. Trump does not stand a change if he tries to spend less. Stockman says the market in the spring and summer of 2017 will be a bloodbath as the market crashes. You should listen to it at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYIDN8TG46Q.
So I called Fidelity another 4 times. Not only did they never update their distributions for 12/16, they did not post them for 12/23. Then I discovered the numbers they posted for 12/09 were incomplete. I hope someday they get their act together (I HOPE!).
“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com:
On Wednesday, 21Dec, the short term outlook is neutral to bullish, intermediate term is neutral to bullish, long term outlook is neutral to bullish. Indicators are looking better.
My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 88.37, 50 day MA of 84.45, a 200 day MA of 81.59, and a 7% stop loss is 82.18. This is not an investment to buy and hold.
IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” as of 08Dec. Time to invest. Except none of the top 20 out of 120 funds I follow is a buy.
My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 32.55, a sell price 30.92, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – KRE- current stoploss 52.18)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 97.30, a sell price 92.44, a rank of 04, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 68.02)
SComputers has a price of 75.14, a sell price 71.73, a rank of 26, and is a hold for now. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 116.74)
STransportation has a price of 91.46, a sell price 88.92, a rank of 07, and is a hold. (ETF – XTN – current stoploss 52.76)
SNaturalGas has a price of 30.01, a sell price 28.51, a rank of 03, and is a Hold. (ETF – XES – current stoploss 21.70)
Generally I would be selling SComputers since it is not one of the top 20, however none of the top 20 have had an increasing deviation for two weeks.
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
22.55 01-10 FSRBX 32.55 SBanking
17.18 02-04 FSESX 56.25 SEnergyService
15.24 03-06 FSNGX 30.04 SNaturalGas
15.23 04-25 FSELX 97.30 SSemiconductors
14.71 05-07 FIDSX 99.68 SFinancialServices
13.61 06-06 FCPEX 14.32 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
13.55 07-08 FSRFX 91.46 STransportation
13.35 08-08 FSAIX 75.19 SAirTransportation
13.04 09-07 FSLBX 68.34 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
12.27 10-07 FARNX 12.99 EventDrivenOpportunities
12.08 11-06 FSENX 47.56 SEnergy
10.79 12-07 FSVLX 13.47 SConsumerFinance
10.72 13-07 FSPCX 78.19 SInsurance
10.31 14-02 FCYIX 32.67 SIndustrials
10.02 15-07 FSHCX 83.08 SHealthCareServices
9.69 16-04 FNARX 30.96 SNaturalResources
9.29 17-07 FLCSX 29.65 LargeCapStock
9.28 18-09 FSDAX 130.11 SDefense&Aerospace
8.90 19-02 FSDCX 33.07 SCommunicationsEquipment
8.90 20-03 FDSCX 26.24 StockSelectorSmallCap
Last week:
22.05 01-09 FSRBX 32.03 SBanking
16.51 02-03 FSESX 55.42 SEnergyService
15.74 03-05 FSNGX 29.93 SNaturalGas
14.70 04-06 FIDSX 98.90 SFinancialServices
14.45 05-24 FSELX 95.87 SSemiconductors
14.43 06-05 FCPEX 14.32 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
14.04 07-07 FSRFX 91.20 STransportation
13.93 08-07 FSAIX 75.04 SAirTransportation
13.92 09-06 FSLBX 68.40 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
12.66 10-05 FSENX 47.50 SEnergy
12.65 11-06 FARNX 12.95 EventDrivenOpportunities
11.34 12-06 FSVLX 13.46 SConsumerFinance
10.35 13-06 FSPCX 77.49 SInsurance
10.14 14-03 FNARX 30.93 SNaturalResources
10.06 15-01 FCYIX 32.42 SIndustrials
9.84 16-01 FSDCX 33.20 SCommunicationsEquipment
9.61 17-06 FLCSX 29.59 LargeCapStock
9.43 18-03 FSCHX 149.19 SChemicals
9.24 19-02 FDSCX 26.20 StockSelectorSmallCap
8.95 20-08 FSDAX 129.08 SDefense&Aerospace
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Oct16 1m-8% 3m-6% 6m-1% 12m+10% 24m+6% 36m+11% 60m44% 120m-1%
Sep16 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+32% 12m+23% 24m+9% 36m+22% 60m52% 120m+6%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SNaturalGas(FSNGX)(12Dec16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Oct16 1m-5% 3m-6% 6m+4% 12m+1% 24m+7% 36m+4% 60m+15% 120m+17%
Sep16 1m+2% 3m+3% 6m+13% 12m+7% 24m+9% 36m+8% 60m+20% 120m+20%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%