A good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -125, -284, and now 41 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 69, 16, and now 10.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 8% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 12% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 13% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ is above its 200 day moving average.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is positive but not up 2 weeks in a row.
Well it seemed like a good week, sure wish I had an indication of what was next. How a market can go up during a coming recession is scary.
In a classic case of bad timing, I decided on 1/1/20 to invest a little in the top 5 Fidelity mutual funds basis on their previous one month return. Each month when Fidelity publishes the numbers I change the investments to the latest top 5 funds. For the first quarter of 2020, I lost 16.70%. After a minute gain in April I am still down 15.11%.
Pacer Trendpilot ETFs offer funds which switch to T-Bills anytime the index they follow declines below the index 200 day average. As of 5/21 their holdings are:
PTLC Pacer Trendpilot US Large Cap ETF follow the S&P500 index and is 100% in T-Bills.
PTMC Pacer Trendpilot US Mid Cap ETF follows the S&P MidCap 400 index and is 100% in T-Bills.
PTNQ Pacer Trendpilot 100 ETF follows the NASDAQ-100 index and is 100% invested in equities.
PTBD Pacer Trendpilot US Bond ETF follows the S&P U.S. High Yield Corporate Bond index and is in T-Bonds.
I am currently invested in PTNQ.
There are two other Pacer Trendpilot funds which follow other indexes.
IRA#1
No investments
IRA#2
No investments
My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
25.22 01-09 FSAGX 29.72 SGold NO
13.83 02-03 FBIOX 23.14 SBiotechnology YES
13.10 03-07 FBGRX 117.20 BlueChipGrowth NO
11.83 04-06 FSPTX 21.01 STechnology NO
11.26 05-04 FSCSX 21.34 SSoftware&ITServices NO
10.91 06-06 FIFNX 12.70 Founders YES
10.88 07-21 FTRNX 113.97 Trend NO
10.77 08-18 FOCPX 13.44 OTCPortfolio NO
10.09 09-01 FSENX 22.06 SEnergy YES
10.07 10-07 FNCMX 117.37 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
9.37 11-01 FSRPX 17.42 SRetailing NO
8.66 12-07 FCNTX 14.15 Contrafund NO
8.45 13-12 FLGEX 22.23 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
8.37 14-11 FSPHX 29.18 SHealthCare NO
8.23 15-03 FTQGX 26.70 FocusedStock NO
8.10 16-02 FSHCX 104.89 SHealthCareServices YES
8.00 17-02 FDSVX 42.03 GrowthDiscovery NO
7.72 18-01 FBMPX 64.48 SCommunicationServices NO
7.02 19-03 FFIDX 51.46 Fidelity NO
6.94 20-12 FPHAX 23.21 SPharmaceuticals NO
Last Week
30.57 01-08 FSAGX 30.58 SGold YES
11.94 02-02 FBIOX 22.59 SBiotechnology YES
9.18 03-05 FIFNX 12.43 Founders YES
9.11 04-10 FSPHX 29.25 SHealthCare YES
8.90 05-06 FBGRX 112.07 BlueChipGrowth NO
8.41 06-05 FSPTX 20.24 STechnology NO
8.12 07-20 FTRNX 110.50 Trend NO
8.02 08-11 FPHAX 23.36 SPharmaceuticals YES
7.83 09-03 FSCSX 20.56 SSoftware&ITServices NO
7.34 10-17 FOCPX 12.95 OTCPortfolio NO
6.94 11-06 FNCMX 113.42 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
6.19 12-11 FLGEX 21.67 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
6.15 13-06 FCNTX 13.76 Contrafund NO
6.05 14-01 FSHCX 102.46 SHealthCareServices YES
6.01 15-05 FSMEX 59.55 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices NO
5.57 16-02 FTQGX 25.93 FocusedStock NO
5.32 17-12 FHKCX 38.87 ChinaRegion NO
5.02 18-12 FSEAX 44.90 EmergingAsia NO
4.87 19-02 FFIDX 50.24 Fidelity NO
4.67 20-01 FDSVX 40.56 GrowthDiscovery NO
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(23Mar20) from STechnology(FSPTX)(18Feb20)
Mar20 1m-21% 3m-31% 6m-17% 12m-17% 24m-25%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(23Mar20) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(18Feb20)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SHealthCareServices(09Dec19)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SComputers(16Dec19)
20% – Cash(02Mar20) from STechnology(21Jan20)
20% – Cash(02Mar20) from SWireless(21Oct19)
Mar20 1m-3% 3m-7% 6m-0% 12m+0% 24m-4%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%