Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 301, 544, and now 418 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 00, 03, and now 13.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 2% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 5% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 1% below its 50 day moving average,
SPY and QQQ are above their 200 day moving average. IWM is not.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy.
Gary Kaltbaum, on his 6pm radio show, frequently points out the positive performance by banking and semiconductors stocks is required for a good market. Out of the 100 funds I follow, SBanking is #100,
SBrokerageInvestmentMangement is #99, SBiotechnology is #98, STransportation is #97 and SFinancial Services is #96. The five worst performing funds. Luckily SSoftware and other computer oriented funds are still doing well.
The 21 Mar issue of MacroVoice podcasts features David Rosenberg. His view is that the interest rate curve is invested and the economy is headed for a rough patch along with the market since the recession is coming.
IRA#1
none
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 66.29, a sell price 63.29, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SGold has a price of 19.41, a sell price 18.72, a rank of 06, and is a hold. (ETF – GDX, GDXJ)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 16.08, a sell price 16.42, a rank of 59, and is a sell – except if I sell it before 3/27 Fidelity’s stupid rules can limit my investing in funds in the future. Not a problem with ETFs (ETF – ITA, XAR)
My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund
symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
11.62 01-11 FBSOX 66.29 SITServices
10.87 02-05 FSPTX 16.07 STechnology Yes
9.62 03-08 FHKCX 34.27 ChinaReqion
8.65 04-04 FSEAX 42.15 EmergingAsia
8.45 05-04 FSCSX 19.07 SSoftware&ITServices
8.30 06-03 FSAGX 19.41 SGold
8.20 07-03 FOCPX 11.58 OTCPortfolio
7.79 08-03 FBMPX 77.59 SCommunicationServices
7.54 09-03 FRESX 43.90 RealEstateInvestment
7.44 10-03 FSUTX 88.26 SUtilities
7.04 11-02 FSELX 9.62 SSemiconductors
6.85 12-01 FSRNX 16.36 RealEstateIndex Yes
6.84 13-02 FTQGX 23.73 FocusedStock
6.54 14-02 FDSVX 35.64 Growth Discovery
6.36 15-01 FSPGX 14.87 LargeCapGrowthIndex Yes
6.34 16-01 FTRNX 98.72 Trend
6.13 17-06 FSDCX 39.81 SCommunicationsEquipment
6.09 18-01 FSRPX 15.33 SRetailing Yes
5.99 19-01 FAMRX 18.75 Asset Manager 85%
5.99 20-01 FBGRX 96.83 BlueChipGrowth
Last Week
12.87 01-10 FBSOX 66.62 SITServices
10.85 02-07 FHKCX 34.48 ChinaReqion
10.60 03-04 FSPTX 15.94 STechnology
9.14 04-10 FSVLX 16.01 SConsumerFinance
9.01 05-05 FSDCX 40.76 SCommunicationsEquipment
8.82 06-03 FSCSX 19.05 SSoftware&ITServices
8.70 07-03 FSEAX 41.98 EmergingAsia
8.39 08-02 FOCPX 11.55 OTCPortfolio
8.32 09-02 FBMPX 77.65 SCommunicationServices
8.08 10-01 FTQGX 23.92 FocusedStock
7.88 11-01 FSELX 9.66 SSemiconductors
7.82 12-01 FSMEX 53.96 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
7.78 13-01 FDSVX 35.93 Growth Discovery
7.65 14-02 FRESX 43.77 RealEstateInvestment
7.64 15-23 FLATX 24.03 LatinAmerica
7.48 16-02 FSUTX 87.94 SUtilities Yes
7.30 17-03 FDSSX 44.07 StockSelectorAllCap
7.15 18-02 FSLSX 35.57 ValueStrategies
7.00 19-10 FDSCX 23.14 StockSelectorSmallCap
6.87 20-02 FSAGX 19.07 SGold
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(11Mar19) from LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19)
Feb19 1m-4% 3m-8% 6m-13% 12m-8% 24m+3% 36m+41% 60m+19% 120m+8%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – Cash(11Mar19) from LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19)
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
Feb19 1m+1% 3m+0% 6m-7% 12m-4% 24m+2% 36m+24% 60m+12% 120m+37%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%
ETFs
PTNQ Feb19 1m+0% 3m+1% 6m-9% 12m+2%
QQQ Feb19 1m+3% 3m+3% 6m-7% 12m+4%