Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 763, 918, and now 781 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 02, 94, and now 03.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 2% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 5% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 1% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ, and IWM are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.
This weekend the Bloomberg Wall Street Week show reported on a University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey on where the market is going. They reported that every time over the last 15 years the value increased to above 60% there was a market correction of 10% to 47%. The latest reading of ~66% is higher than the index was at the in 2007.
Currently QQQ is 16% above its 200 day moving average. PTNQ, which follows the same index, is programed to switch to Treasury bills when the current value of the index crosses its 200 day moving average. If that were to happen Monday, any PTNQ investor would lose ~16% but any QQQ investor would loose as much as the index fell.
Select Gold is the number one fund this week. That in an indication of concern in the market. It may be because of the Coronavirus impact on the global supply chain so many companies use these days. It is difficult for Chinese companies to run factories when the workers are confined to their homes.
IRA#1
STechnology has a price of 21.78, a sell price 21.22, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – FTXL, SOXX)
IRA#2
SWireless has a price of 11.80, a sell price 11.36, a rank of 12, and is a hold. (ETF – IYZ, XTL)
STechnology has a price of 21.78, a sell price 21.22, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – FTXL, SOXX)
SSemiconductors has a price of 12.99, a sell price 12.51, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – XLK, IETC )
My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2
weeks).
16.30 01-01 FSAGX 26.01 SGold YES
16.29 02-19 FSPTX 21.78 STechnology NO
15.66 03-36 FSELX 12.99 SSemiconductors NO
15.08 04-05 FSAVX 40.18 SAutomotive YES
14.41 05-07 FSCSX 21.99 SSoftware&ITServices NO
13.98 06-03 FSHCX 111.36 SHealthCareServices YES
13.17 07-03 FBIOX 22.93 SBiotechnology NO
12.90 08-06 FBSOX 82.97 SITServices NO
12.67 09-07 FBGRX 117.63 BlueChipGrowth NO
12.63 10-15 FOCPX 13.71 OTCPortfolio NO
12.58 11-08 FTRNX 115.70 Trend NO
12.18 12-28 FWRLX 11.80 SWireless NO
11.96 13-10 FNCMX 120.26 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
11.52 14-01 FDEGX 53.76 Growth Strategies NO
11.46 15-01 FSHOX 66.98 SConstructionandHousing NO
11.29 16-01 FPHAX 23.89 SPharmaceuticals NO
10.94 17-06 FFIDX 53.94 Fidelity NO
10.90 18-03 FDEQX 42.69 DisciplinedEquity NO
10.88 19-15 FDCPX 86.19 SComputers NO
10.86 20-01 FDCAX 36.18 CapitalAppreciation NO
Last Week
20.31 01-18 FSPTX 22.34 STechnology YES
18.24 02-35 FSELX 13.17 SSemiconductors YES
17.28 03-06 FSCSX 22.37 SSoftware&ITServices YES
15.41 04-14 FDCPX 89.20 SComputers YES
15.21 05-14 FOCPX 13.93 OTCPortfolio YES
15.06 06-07 FTRNX 117.46 Trend YES
14.89 07-05 FBSOX 83.86 SITServices YES
14.61 08-01 FHKCX 41.86 ChinaRegion YES
14.58 09-06 FBGRX 118.82 BlueChipGrowth YES
14.48 10-09 FNCMX 122.19 NasdaqCompositeIndex YES
14.43 11-27 FWRLX 11.96 SWireless YES
13.82 12-02 FSHCX 110.38 SHealthCareServices YES
13.45 13-05 FFIDX 54.84 Fidelity YES
13.29 14-04 FSAVX 39.24 SAutomotive YES
13.29 15-02 FDEQX 43.36 DisciplinedEquity YES
13.26 16-02 FBIOX 22.79 SBiotechnology YES
13.09 17-03 FLGEX 23.24 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex YES
13.05 18-02 FTQGX 28.19 FocusedStock YES
12.88 19-04 FDFFX 39.80 Independence YES
12.55 20-01 FMAGX 11.09 Magellan YES
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(18Feb20) from Cash(03Feb20)
Nov19 1m+6% 3m-0% 6m+23% 12m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(18Feb20) from Cash(03Feb20)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SHealthCareServices(09Dec19)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SComputers(16Dec19)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(21Jan20) from SAutomotive(FSAVX)(28Oct19)
20% – SWireless(FWRLX)(21Oct19) from Cash(26Aug19)
Nov19 1m+1% 3m+1% 6m+8% 12m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
—
David John Flynn
LTC USA (Ret)
www.flynndj.com