Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -472, -561, and now -1078 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 08, 03, and now 00,
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 11% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 11% below its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 14% below its 50 day moving average,
The sum of the deviations is negative. I do not remember ever having a negative sum of the deviation below -1000. I was equally surprised when the sum of the deviations was above 1000 in January.
I sent a note ABC news this week. Every time they talk about the market going down, they talk about how 401k owners are losing money. I told them about the ABC news 2009 visit to 401k owners where ABC news suggested the 401k was now 201k. I pointed out that ABC news returned to those 201k owners in 2012 and asked how they felt now that their 201k was back to their old 401k values. At the time I told ABC news they asked the wrong question – the correct question what are the 401k owners going to do the next time the market drops. It looks like the next time is here and all ABC news does is talk about losing money in 401ks. I suggested my 401k (HR Block) was never more than 50% invested after January this year and now was all cash.
One of the indicators I use to see how well an investment is performing is the 50 day moving average. Finance.yahoo.com has a chart which the 50 day moving average is 89.56 for Fidelity Select Computers. Stockcharts.com’s chart says the 50 day moving average is 74.84. Another web site had it wrong, I reported it and they said the checked other sites and found the same number – not a valid answer. I persisted and they said they would fix it is a day or two, which they did. I’ve told Yahoo many times their numbers are bad and they do nothing.
SHealthCareServices sure was a bad investment. By the time it was sold I lost 8.5%. On the two ETFs I purchased, IHF lost 6.7% and XLV lost 3.8%.
If Fidelity had allowed me to sell it when I wanted to I would have lost 4.5%. Fidelity’s dumb rules increased my lost by 89%. Stay away from funds if you can.
If you want a “good” investment look at ETFSCREEN.COM. This week there were 10 ETFs which went up more than 30%. I have a small investment is SQQQ which only went up 28.80% last week. There were 10 ETFs which lost more than 24%. Take care in buying one.
My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2
weeks).
This week:
1.32 01-03 FSAGX 17.37 SGold
0.75 02-03 FCONX 10.01 ConservativeIncomeBond
0.60 03-11 FSUTX 80.82 SUtilities
-1.22 04-11 FRIFX 11.17 RealEstateIncome
-1.28 05-11 FLATX 20.72 LatinAmerica
-2.35 06-11 FIUIX 24.42 TelecomandUtilities
-3.62 07-09 FSRNX 14.34 RealEstateIndex
-4.25 08-04 FRESX 38.50 RealEstateInvestment
-4.50 09-01 FNMIX 14.27 NewMarketsIncome
-4.51 10-03 FIREX 10.63 InternationalRealEstate
-4.93 11-05 FEMEX 8.51 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)
-6.81 12-03 FCVSX 26.02 ConvertibleSecurities
-7.48 13-01 FHKCX 28.79 ChinaReqion
-7.57 14-10 FPHAX 18.53 SPharmaceuticals
-8.08 15-28 FSHCX 86.25 SHealthCareServices
-8.11 16-03 FBMPX 64.31 SCommunicationServices
-8.17 17-01 FSEAX 36.18 EmergingAsia
-8.22 18-01 FBALX 20.09 Balanced Fund
-8.61 19-01 FPURX 19.03 Puritian
-8.72 20-01 FSPCX 51.39 SInsurance
Last Week
5.86 01-11 FSUTX 85.02 SUtilities Yes
3.24 02-10 FIUIX 25.85 TelecomandUtilities Yes
2.84 03-08 FSRNX 15.33 RealEstateIndex
1.94 04-06 FRESX 41.08 RealEstateInvestment
1.72 05-10 FRIFX 11.51 RealEstateIncome
1.27 06-27 FSHCX 95.43 SHealthCareServices
0.79 07-02 FCONX 10.01 ConservativeIncomeBond
-0.06 08-10 FLATX 20.99 LatinAmerica
-0.42 09-02 FSAGX 17.06 SGold
-0.86 10-03 FBMPX 69.68 SCommunicationServices
-1.32 11-09 FPHAX 19.86 SPharmaceuticals
-1.61 12-05 FEMEX 8.83 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)
-1.64 13-21 FSMEX 48.40 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
-1.76 14-02 FCVSX 27.53 ConvertibleSecurities
-2.14 15-02 FIREX 10.92 InternationalRealEstate
-2.23 16-09 FDFAX 73.44 SConsumerStaples
-2.25 17-11 FSTCX 55.29 STelecommunications
-2.28 18-03 FTQGX 21.65 FocusedStock
-2.36 19-01 FSDCX 36.01 SCommunicationsEquipment
-2.73 20-05 FDLSX 13.42 SLeisure
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+6% 12m+12% 24m+23% 36m+51% 60m+50% 120m+10%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+2%
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+5% 6m+5% 12m+8% 24m+18% 36m+26% 60m+27% 120m+46%%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%