Macro Voices (macrovoices.com) produces a weekly podcast which is outstanding. The 19Apr podcast featured an interview with Danielle DiMartino Booth author of “Fed Up: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America.” One of the comments about her book is “DiMartino Booth found a cabal of unelected academics (at the Fed) who made decisions without the slightest understanding of the real world, just a slavish devotion to their theoretical models.” In the interview she points out that the Fed’s bailing out of the banks and the Fed’s subsequent zero interest rates (killing the income of those who save) has produced a pension bubble bomb due to hit in the next decade. I wrote about this on 21 Dec with a reference to //www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2016/12/20/calpers-cuts-pension-benefits-for-first-time.html. Pensions plan on a return of ~6% investing primarily in bonds. Bonds are now yielding about 3% and cannot go much higher without bankrupting the US due to the 20T debt we have. Even the finance minister of Germany has pointed out that next year German insurance companies will start going out of business due to the zero interest rates the European Union has. Bottom line is that if you think you will have a pension, MAYBE you will. It was ~30 years ago one of my friend’s dad had his company pension (went bankrupt) taken over by the US Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp. He ended up taking an 85% cut in monthly benefits.
Returns for March IRA#1 -4%, IRA#2 -1%, QQQ 2%, SPY/RSP 0%, DWTR -5%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 -3%, IRA#2 4%, QQQ 11%, SPY/RSP 5%, DWTR -2%.
For the last 6 months, IRA#1 -4%, IRA#2 4%, QQQ 12%, SPY/RSP 9%, DWTR -7%.
For the last 12 months, IRA#1 27%, IRA#2 18%, QQQ 17%, SPY/RSP 10%, DWTR -5%
March portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – None, Invested in FSRBX.
IRA#2 – Sold FSRFX, FSRBX 03/28 – Invested in FSELX, FBIOX, FDCPX
QQQ – None – Invested in QQQ
SPY/RSP – NONE – Invested in RSP
DWTR – Sold DWTR 03/28 – Invested in cash
There are a couple of interesting articles at https://stockcharts.com/articles/. One from yesterday indicated the Nasdaq 100 trend model now has a short term, intermediate term, and long term buy signal. In another article from today, Gatis Rose finds several of Fidelity Select funds interesting: AirTransport, Automotive, Chemicals, Financial, Energy, and EnvironmentalAlternativeEnergy.
Larry Fink, CEO and Chairman of Blackrock which manages $5.4T in assets, said on Wall Street Week tonight that by analsing communications on the internet with word analysis Blackrock has found that when employees are happy with their company, the company stock does well. When employees are unhappy with their company, the company stock underperforms.
My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 90.50, 50 day MA of 90.50, a 200 day MA of 85.73, and a 7% stop loss is 85.81. This is not an investment to buy and hold but then there are no investments to buy and hold. The general rule of thumb is consider selling when an investment falls below its 50 week average and make sure you own nothing selling below both its 50 and 200 day moving average.
IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend Under Pressure” as of 21Mar. Not a time to invest.
My current investments:
IRA#1 – not invested – 100% cash
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 99.02, a sell price 95.96, a rank of 08, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 74.14)
SComputers has a price of 83.24, a sell price 80.07, a rank of of 02, and is a hold (ETF – PSI- current stoploss 38.85)
60% Cash
Not one of my top 20 funds has an improved deviation for the last two weeks. That is one of the reasons I am buying nothing.
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
11.73 01-13 FSPTX 149.29 STechnology
10.59 02-14 FDCPX 83.24 SComputers
9.87 03-06 FHKCX 28.02 ChinaReqion
9.85 04-04 FDLSX 149.79 SLeisure
9.04 05-11 FOCPX 94.76 OTCPortfolio
8.96 06-17 FBIOX 195.90 SBiotechnology
8.88 07-06 FSEAX 35.92 EmergingAsia
8.87 08-42 FSELX 99.02 SSemiconductors
8.76 09-05 FSAGX 21.38 SGold
8.12 10-01 FSCSX 141.15 SSoftware&ITServices
8.07 11-03 FEMKX 25.80 EmergingMarkets
7.92 12-14 FSCHX 155.95 SChemicals
7.66 13-05 FLATX 21.97 LatinAmerica
7.65 14-04 FBGRX 75.65 BlueChipGrowth
7.57 15-01 FDSVX 28.67 Growth Discovery
7.54 16-01- FSDAX 137.01 SDefense&Aerospace
7.54 17-01 FNCMX 77.74 NasdaqCompositeIndex
7.47 18-09 FWRLX 9.27 SWireless
7.47 19-05 FEDDX 13.20 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
7.30 20-01 FCPGX 22.40 SmallCapGrowth
Last week:
14.12 01-04 FSAGX 22.33 SGold
11.14 02-13 FDCPX 83.19 SComputers
10.26 03-16 FBIOX 197.30 SBiotechnology
9.79 04-12 FSPTX 145.80 STechnology
9.58 05-05 FHKCX 27.80 ChinaReqion
8.90 06-05 FSEAX 35.76 EmergingAsia
8.05 07-10 FOCPX 93.45 OTCPortfolio
7.89 08-08 FWRLX 9.27 SWireless
7.40 09-04 FEDDX 13.14 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
7.24 10-03 FDLSX 145.46 SLeisure
7.23 11-02 FEMKX 25.49 EmergingMarkets
6.89 12-41 FSELX 96.77 SSemiconductors
6.81 13-01 FISMX 25.51 InternationalSmallCap
6.78 14-02 FTEMX 11.88 TotalEmergingMarkets
6.62 15-04 FLATX 21.67 LatinAmerica
6.57 16-13 FSCHX 153.36 SChemicals
6.50 17-01 FPBFX 29.32 PacificBasin
6.45 18-03 FBGRX 74.51 BlueChipGrowth
6.32 19-01 FSUTX 77.64 SUtilities
6.32 20-01 FPHAX 18.13 SPharmaceuticals
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
Feb17 1m+3% 3m10% 6m+3% 12m+36% 24m+0% 36m+15% 60m+59% 120m-4%
Mar17 1m-4% 3m-3% 6m-4% 12m+27% 24m-11% 36m+13% 60m+41% 120m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(10Apr17) from SBiotechnology(FBIOX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Feb17 1m+4% 3m+8% 6m+7% 12m21% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+18% 120m+31%
Mar17 1m-1% 3m+4% 6m+4% 12m+18% 24m+7% 36m+13% 60m+12% 120m+29%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%