May 2020 – FlynnDJ.com

29 May 2020

A good week, a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -284, 41, and now 325 – up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 16, 10, and now 87.

In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 10% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 12% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 14% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ and SPY are above their 200 day moving average.
A time to buy.

A good week. Most of the market people are still claiming these are bear market rallies. They may be correct but it is still time to buy.

Pacer Trendpilot ETFs offer funds which switch to T-Bills anytime the index they follow declines below the index 200 day average. As of 5/28 their holdings are:
PTLC Pacer Trendpilot US Large Cap ETF follow the S&P500 index and is 100% in T-Bills.
PTMC Pacer Trendpilot US Mid Cap ETF follows the S&P MidCap 400 index and is 100% in T-Bills.
PTNQ Pacer Trendpilot 100 ETF follows the NASDAQ-100 index and is 100% invested in equities.
PTBD Pacer Trendpilot US Bond ETF follows the S&P U.S. High Yield Corporate Bond index and is in T-Bonds.
I am currently invested in PTNQ.
No change from last week for Pacer Trendpilot ETFs – only one fo the for funds is inested in equities or corpoate bonds.

IRA#1
BlueChipGrowth has a price of 118.76, a sell price TBD, a rank of 02, and is a Buy. (ETF – IWF, VONG)

IRA#2
BlueChipGrowth has a price of 118.76, a sell price TBD, a rank of 02, and is a Buy. (ETF – IWF, VONG)

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – 100% in BlueChipGrowth
IRA #2 – 20% in BlueChipGrowth

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 20% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
19.24 01-10 FSAGX 28.59 SGold NO
13.78 02-08 FBGRX 118.76 BlueChipGrowth YES
12.61 03-07 FIFNX 12.98 Founders YES
12.57 04-02 FSRPX 18.05 SRetailing YES
12.57 05-01 FSESX 11.49 SEnergyServices YES
12.37 06-22 FTRNX 116.26 Trend YES
12.11 07-05 FSCSX 21.64 SSoftware&ITServices YES
12.04 08-04 FBIOX 22.92 SBiotechnology NO
12.03 09-19 FOCPX 13.68 OTCPortfolio YES
12.02 10-07 FSPTX 21.18 STechnology YES
11.37 11-08 FNCMX 119.47 NasdaqCompositeIndex YES
10.53 12-03 FSHCX 107.85 SHealthCareServices YES
10.24 13-02 FSENX 22.21 SEnergy YES
10.08 14-04 FTQGX 27.30 FocusedStock YES
9.83 15-13 FLGEX 22.63 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex YES
9.68 16-01 FMDGX 21.22 MidCapGrowthIndex YES
9.63 17-12 FSPHX 29.67 SHealthCare NO
9.57 18-08 FCNTX 14.34 Contrafund YES
9.15 19-03 FDSVX 42.68 GrowthDiscovery YES
9.11 20-01 FDFFX 38.20 Independence YES
Last Week
25.22 01-09 FSAGX 29.72 SGold NO
13.83 02-03 FBIOX 23.14 SBiotechnology YES
13.10 03-07 FBGRX 117.20 BlueChipGrowth NO
11.83 04-06 FSPTX 21.01 STechnology NO
11.26 05-04 FSCSX 21.34 SSoftware&ITServices NO
10.91 06-06 FIFNX 12.70 Founders YES
10.88 07-21 FTRNX 113.97 Trend NO
10.77 08-18 FOCPX 13.44 OTCPortfolio NO
10.09 09-01 FSENX 22.06 SEnergy YES
10.07 10-07 FNCMX 117.37 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
9.37 11-01 FSRPX 17.42 SRetailing NO
8.66 12-07 FCNTX 14.15 Contrafund NO
8.45 13-12 FLGEX 22.23 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
8.37 14-11 FSPHX 29.18 SHealthCare NO
8.23 15-03 FTQGX 26.70 FocusedStock NO
8.10 16-02 FSHCX 104.89 SHealthCareServices YES
8.00 17-02 FDSVX 42.03 GrowthDiscovery NO
7.72 18-01 FBMPX 64.48 SCommunicationServices NO
7.02 19-03 FFIDX 51.46 Fidelity NO
6.94 20-12 FPHAX 23.21 SPharmaceuticals NO

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – BlueChipGrowth(FBGRX)(01Jun20) from Cash(23Mar20)
Mar20 1m-21% 3m-31% 6m-17% 12m-17% 24m-25%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – BlueChipGrowth(FBGRX)(01Jun20) from Cash(23Mar20)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SHealthCareServices(09Dec19)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SComputers(16Dec19)
20% – Cash(02Mar20) from STechnology(21Jan20)
20% – Cash(02Mar20) from SWireless(21Oct19)
Mar20 1m-3% 3m-7% 6m-0% 12m+0% 24m-4%

22 May 2020

A good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -125, -284, and now 41 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 69, 16, and now 10.

In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 8% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 12% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 13% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ is above its 200 day moving average.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is positive but not up 2 weeks in a row.

Well it seemed like a good week, sure wish I had an indication of what was next. How a market can go up during a coming recession is scary.

In a classic case of bad timing, I decided on 1/1/20 to invest a little in the top 5 Fidelity mutual funds basis on their previous one month return. Each month when Fidelity publishes the numbers I change the investments to the latest top 5 funds. For the first quarter of 2020, I lost 16.70%. After a minute gain in April I am still down 15.11%.

Pacer Trendpilot ETFs offer funds which switch to T-Bills anytime the index they follow declines below the index 200 day average. As of 5/21 their holdings are:
PTLC Pacer Trendpilot US Large Cap ETF follow the S&P500 index and is 100% in T-Bills.
PTMC Pacer Trendpilot US Mid Cap ETF follows the S&P MidCap 400 index and is 100% in T-Bills.
PTNQ Pacer Trendpilot 100 ETF follows the NASDAQ-100 index and is 100% invested in equities.
PTBD Pacer Trendpilot US Bond ETF follows the S&P U.S. High Yield Corporate Bond index and is in T-Bonds.
I am currently invested in PTNQ.
There are two other Pacer Trendpilot funds which follow other indexes.

IRA#1
No investments

IRA#2
No investments

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
25.22 01-09 FSAGX 29.72 SGold NO
13.83 02-03 FBIOX 23.14 SBiotechnology YES
13.10 03-07 FBGRX 117.20 BlueChipGrowth NO
11.83 04-06 FSPTX 21.01 STechnology NO
11.26 05-04 FSCSX 21.34 SSoftware&ITServices NO
10.91 06-06 FIFNX 12.70 Founders YES
10.88 07-21 FTRNX 113.97 Trend NO
10.77 08-18 FOCPX 13.44 OTCPortfolio NO
10.09 09-01 FSENX 22.06 SEnergy YES
10.07 10-07 FNCMX 117.37 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
9.37 11-01 FSRPX 17.42 SRetailing NO
8.66 12-07 FCNTX 14.15 Contrafund NO
8.45 13-12 FLGEX 22.23 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
8.37 14-11 FSPHX 29.18 SHealthCare NO
8.23 15-03 FTQGX 26.70 FocusedStock NO
8.10 16-02 FSHCX 104.89 SHealthCareServices YES
8.00 17-02 FDSVX 42.03 GrowthDiscovery NO
7.72 18-01 FBMPX 64.48 SCommunicationServices NO
7.02 19-03 FFIDX 51.46 Fidelity NO
6.94 20-12 FPHAX 23.21 SPharmaceuticals NO
Last Week
30.57 01-08 FSAGX 30.58 SGold YES
11.94 02-02 FBIOX 22.59 SBiotechnology YES
9.18 03-05 FIFNX 12.43 Founders YES
9.11 04-10 FSPHX 29.25 SHealthCare YES
8.90 05-06 FBGRX 112.07 BlueChipGrowth NO
8.41 06-05 FSPTX 20.24 STechnology NO
8.12 07-20 FTRNX 110.50 Trend NO
8.02 08-11 FPHAX 23.36 SPharmaceuticals YES
7.83 09-03 FSCSX 20.56 SSoftware&ITServices NO
7.34 10-17 FOCPX 12.95 OTCPortfolio NO
6.94 11-06 FNCMX 113.42 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
6.19 12-11 FLGEX 21.67 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
6.15 13-06 FCNTX 13.76 Contrafund NO
6.05 14-01 FSHCX 102.46 SHealthCareServices YES
6.01 15-05 FSMEX 59.55 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices NO
5.57 16-02 FTQGX 25.93 FocusedStock NO
5.32 17-12 FHKCX 38.87 ChinaRegion NO
5.02 18-12 FSEAX 44.90 EmergingAsia NO
4.87 19-02 FFIDX 50.24 Fidelity NO
4.67 20-01 FDSVX 40.56 GrowthDiscovery NO

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(23Mar20) from STechnology(FSPTX)(18Feb20)
Mar20 1m-21% 3m-31% 6m-17% 12m-17% 24m-25%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(23Mar20) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(18Feb20)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SHealthCareServices(09Dec19)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SComputers(16Dec19)
20% – Cash(02Mar20) from STechnology(21Jan20)
20% – Cash(02Mar20) from SWireless(21Oct19)
Mar20 1m-3% 3m-7% 6m-0% 12m+0% 24m-4%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%

15 May 2020

A bad week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -536, -125, and now -284 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 22, 69, and now 16.

In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 6% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 11% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 5% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ is above its 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is negative.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is negative.

Looks like the S&P500 hit a high on 10Feb at about 3380, before it declined to 2237 on 23Mar, and within the last month hit about 2930. Most of the market monitors I listen to indicate it probably will not hold 2930 before it declines to test the 23Mar bottom. All of this is complicated by fact that the Federal Reserve Board is now buying high yield bond ETFs to support the bond market and the Congress deciding to spend another 3T+/- to support the falling economy.

One of the measurements of the economy is the unemployment rate. It hit a high of 24.9% in 1933 and now stand at 14.7%. In about two weeks the latest unemployment rate will be reported. It sure would be nice if enough employees found jobs so it would not increase much more.

IRA#1
No investments

IRA#2
No investments

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2
weeks).
30.57 01-08 FSAGX 30.58 SGold YES
11.94 02-02 FBIOX 22.59 SBiotechnology YES
9.18 03-05 FIFNX 12.43 Founders YES
9.11 04-10 FSPHX 29.25 SHealthCare YES
8.90 05-06 FBGRX 112.07 BlueChipGrowth NO
8.41 06-05 FSPTX 20.24 STechnology NO
8.12 07-20 FTRNX 110.50 Trend NO
8.02 08-11 FPHAX 23.36 SPharmaceuticals YES
7.83 09-03 FSCSX 20.56 SSoftware&ITServices NO
7.34 10-17 FOCPX 12.95 OTCPortfolio NO
6.94 11-06 FNCMX 113.42 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
6.19 12-11 FLGEX 21.67 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
6.15 13-06 FCNTX 13.76 Contrafund NO
6.05 14-01 FSHCX 102.46 SHealthCareServices YES
6.01 15-05 FSMEX 59.55 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices NO
5.57 16-02 FTQGX 25.93 FocusedStock NO
5.32 17-12 FHKCX 38.87 ChinaRegion NO
5.02 18-12 FSEAX 44.90 EmergingAsia NO
4.87 19-02 FFIDX 50.24 Fidelity NO
4.67 20-01 FDSVX 40.56 GrowthDiscovery NO
Last Week
27.20 01-07 FSAGX 29.31 SGold NO
10.32 02-05 FBGRX 113.00 BlueChipGrowth NO
9.96 03-04 FSPTX 20.44 STechnology YES
9.81 04-02 FSCSX 20.85 SSoftware&ITServices YES
9.36 05-19 FTRNX 111.28 Trend NO
9.25 06-16 FOCPX 13.13 OTCPortfolio NO
8.83 07-04 FIFNX 12.33 Founders NO
8.60 08-05 FNCMX 114.76 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
8.01 09-01 FBIOX 21.66 SBiotechnology NO
7.58 10-09 FSPHX 28.70 SHealthCare NO
7.17 11-10 FLGEX 21.80 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
6.99 12-10 FPHAX 23.04 SPharmaceuticals NO
6.73 13-05 FCNTX 13.79 Contrafund NO
6.62 14-11 FHKCX 39.24 ChinaRegion NO
6.33 15-11 FSEAX 45.34 EmergingAsia NO
6.24 16-04 FSMEX 59.49 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices NO
5.87 17-01 FSRPX 16.74 SRetailing YES
5.83 18-01 FDEQX 39.55 DisciplinedEquity YES
5.76 19-01 FTQGX 25.90 FocusedStock NO
5.73 20-01 FFIDX 50.52 Fidelity NO

08 May 2020

A good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -618, -536, and now -125 – up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 30, 22, and now 69.

In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 7% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 12% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 9% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ is above its 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is negative.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is negative.

Most of the market pundits I listen to claim this is a bear market bounce thanks to the trillions printed by the Federal Reserve Board and the stimulus. Like 1929 the DJIA has had a nice bounce – in 1929 was up ~66% from the bottom to the next peak about 5 months later before declining ~80% over the next 3 years. Currently the DJIA is up ~70% from the latest 23Mar bottom.

Another factor of concern is the number of stocks up and number down. Reviewing ETF QQQ which follow the NASDAQ 100 index, the top 10 stocks account for more than 50% of the index as it goes up. The advance decline index measures the advancing vs declining stock issues and is negative for the QQQ. Not a good sign.

IRA#1
No investments

IRA#2
No investments

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
27.20 01-07 FSAGX 29.31 SGold NO
10.32 02-05 FBGRX 113.00 BlueChipGrowth NO
9.96 03-04 FSPTX 20.44 STechnology YES
9.81 04-02 FSCSX 20.85 SSoftware&ITServices YES
9.36 05-19 FTRNX 111.28 Trend NO
9.25 06-16 FOCPX 13.13 OTCPortfolio NO
8.83 07-04 FIFNX 12.33 Founders NO
8.60 08-05 FNCMX 114.76 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
8.01 09-01 FBIOX 21.66 SBiotechnology NO
7.58 10-09 FSPHX 28.70 SHealthCare NO
7.17 11-10 FLGEX 21.80 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
6.99 12-10 FPHAX 23.04 SPharmaceuticals NO
6.73 13-05 FCNTX 13.79 Contrafund NO
6.62 14-11 FHKCX 39.24 ChinaRegion NO
6.33 15-11 FSEAX 45.34 EmergingAsia NO
6.24 16-04 FSMEX 59.49 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices NO
5.87 17-01 FSRPX 16.74 SRetailing YES
5.83 18-01 FDEQX 39.55 DisciplinedEquity YES
5.76 19-01 FTQGX 25.90 FocusedStock NO
5.73 20-01 FFIDX 50.52 Fidelity NO

Last Week
23.32 01-06 FSAGX 28.01 SGold NO
4.92 02-09 FPHAX 22.51 SPharmaceuticals NO
3.91 03-18 FTRNX 105.22 Trend NO
3.46 04-08 FSPHX 27.49 SHealthCare NO
3.27 05-15 FOCPX 12.35 OTCPortfolio NO
3.16 06-04 FBGRX 105.09 BlueChipGrowth NO
2.86 07-04 FNCMX 108.21 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
2.69 08-03 FIFNX 11.58 Founders NO
2.68 09-04 FSHCX 98.66 SHealthCareServices NO
2.67 10-09 FNBGX 17.36 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index NO
2.66 11-10 FHKCX 37.65 ChinaRegion NO
2.59 12-09 FLGEX 20.79 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
2.12 13-01 FSCSX 19.29 SSoftware&ITServices NO
2.05 14-03 FSPTX 18.87 STechnology NO
1.98 15-04 FCNTX 13.13 Contrafund NO
1.70 16-07 FFIDX 48.45 Fidelity NO
1.64 17-03 FSMEX 56.73 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices NO
1.58 18-10 FSEAX 43.17 EmergingAsia NO
1.25 19-01 FSTGX 11.16 IntermediateGovernmentIncome NO
1.25 20-01 FSRPX 15.96 SRetailing NO

01 May 2020

A poor week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -609, -618, and now -536 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 83, 30, and now 22.

In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 6% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 0% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ, IWM SPY are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is negative.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.

I suggest you take 10 minutes to listen to VRA Podcast – Vertical Research Advisory – each evening. 01May they continued to reconfirm their bear market view – which many other also feel. One of their topics today was how are people going react when they are allowed go out after the this intentional economic destruction. Last week I mention the 48% funded $73k per year inflation adjusted public teachers pensions in Chicago. I received a report on a small pension I had. If I had been employed for 25 years (as the teachers) I would be in a 81% funded 30k no inflation adjusted pension. There is no house of representatives trying to bail out private pensions with my taxes. Several years ago a friend’s father was in a pension insured by Executive Life Insurance Corporation. Seems when the government pension benefit corporation took over his pension it was reduced by 90%. Have a insurance guaranteed pension or annuity? Think about it.

IRA#1
No investments

IRA#2
No investments

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2

weeks).
23.32 01-06 FSAGX 28.01 SGold NO
4.92 02-09 FPHAX 22.51 SPharmaceuticals NO
3.91 03-18 FTRNX 105.22 Trend NO
3.46 04-08 FSPHX 27.49 SHealthCare NO
3.27 05-15 FOCPX 12.35 OTCPortfolio NO
3.16 06-04 FBGRX 105.09 BlueChipGrowth NO
2.86 07-04 FNCMX 108.21 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
2.69 08-03 FIFNX 11.58 Founders NO
2.68 09-04 FSHCX 98.66 SHealthCareServices NO
2.67 10-09 FNBGX 17.36 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index NO
2.66 11-10 FHKCX 37.65 ChinaRegion NO
2.59 12-09 FLGEX 20.79 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
2.12 13-01 FSCSX 19.29 SSoftware&ITServices NO
2.05 14-03 FSPTX 18.87 STechnology NO
1.98 15-04 FCNTX 13.13 Contrafund NO
1.70 16-07 FFIDX 48.45 Fidelity NO
1.64 17-03 FSMEX 56.73 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices NO
1.58 18-10 FSEAX 43.17 EmergingAsia NO
1.25 19-01 FSTGX 11.16 IntermediateGovernmentIncome NO
1.25 20-01 FSRPX 15.96 SRetailing NO
Last Week
25.57 01-05 FSAGX 28.17 SGold YES
7.48 02-08 FPHAX 23.00 SPharmaceuticals YES
6.62 03-07 FSPHX 28.28 SHealthCare YES
5.66 04-02 FBIOX 21.09 SBiotechnology YES
4.75 05-03 FSHCX 100.51 SHealthCareServices NO
4.47 06-08 FNBGX 17.64 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index YES
4.21 07-17 FTRNX 105.30 Trend NO
4.03 08-14 FOCPX 12.42 OTCPortfolio YES
3.81 09-09 FHKCX 38.02 ChinaRegion NO
3.62 10-03 FBGRX 105.38 BlueChipGrowth YES
3.54 11-02 FIFNX 11.66 Founders YES
3.36 12-03 FNCMX 108.57 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
3.33 13-02 FSMEX 57.62 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices YES
3.23 14-08 FLGEX 20.89 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
2.25 15-09 FSEAX 43.42 EmergingAsia NO
2.25 16-03 FCNTX 13.15 Contrafund NO
2.19 17-06 FFIDX 48.64 Fidelity NO
1.80 18-01 FCVSX 29.90 ConvertibleSecurities YES
1.73 19-02 FSPTX 18.79 STechnology NO
1.58 20-01 FTQGX 24.79 FocusedStock NO