Month: April 2020

A marginal week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -874, -609, and now -618 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 10, 83, and now 30.

In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 1% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 6% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 5% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ and SPY are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is negative.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.

Lisa Shalett from Morgan Stanley Wealth Management was on Barron’s Roundtable this weekend. She indicated the S&P500 index is too concentrated with the top 5 stocks representing 25% of the index and another 300 stocks each representing less than 0.1% index. She prefers investors invest in stocks rather than passive investing in and index. She likes investments in financial, energy, industerials, materials, and value sectors. She also feels it will be 18 months before we completely recover from this downturn.

So the Federal Reserve Board is backing up state and local municipal bonds to maintain a level of liquidity for the municipal bond market. Additionally the next major US government handout is probably going to be a handout to the states. That should help the Chicago teachers pension fund which is only 48% funded continue to pay teachers pensions for 25 years of teaching $73,000 with annual inflation adjustments. Even though I left in the 60s the US government is going to take part of my taxes to help Chicago.

Gary Kaltbaum was on the Stuart Varney show this week and Stuart asked him what his top investment suggestion was. Gary said he should buy Microsoft. Stuart indicate he had sold his Microsoft stock a litle bit ago and invested the money in Boeing.

IRA#1
No investments

IRA#2
No investments

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
25.57 01-05 FSAGX 28.17 SGold YES
7.48 02-08 FPHAX 23.00 SPharmaceuticals YES
6.62 03-07 FSPHX 28.28 SHealthCare YES
5.66 04-02 FBIOX 21.09 SBiotechnology YES
4.75 05-03 FSHCX 100.51 SHealthCareServices NO
4.47 06-08 FNBGX 17.64 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index YES
4.21 07-17 FTRNX 105.30 Trend NO
4.03 08-14 FOCPX 12.42 OTCPortfolio YES
3.81 09-09 FHKCX 38.02 ChinaRegion NO
3.62 10-03 FBGRX 105.38 BlueChipGrowth YES
3.54 11-02 FIFNX 11.66 Founders YES
3.36 12-03 FNCMX 108.57 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
3.33 13-02 FSMEX 57.62 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices YES
3.23 14-08 FLGEX 20.89 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
2.25 15-09 FSEAX 43.42 EmergingAsia NO
2.25 16-03 FCNTX 13.15 Contrafund NO
2.19 17-06 FFIDX 48.64 Fidelity NO
1.80 18-01 FCVSX 29.90 ConvertibleSecurities YES
1.73 19-02 FSPTX 18.79 STechnology NO
1.58 20-01 FTQGX 24.79 FocusedStock NO
Last Week
13.95 01-04 FSAGX 25.22 SGold YES
6.00 02-02 FSHCX 101.46 SHealthCareServices YES
5.89 03-07 FPHAX 22.57 SPharmaceuticals YES
5.03 04-06 FSPHX 27.76 SHealthCare YES
4.91 05-16 FTRNX 105.78 Trend YES
4.13 06-08 FHKCX 38.06 ChinaRegion YES
4.00 07-13 FOCPX 12.39 OTCPortfolio YES
3.90 08-07 FLGEX 20.99 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex YES
3.74 09-02 FNCMX 108.78 NasdaqCompositeIndex YES
3.40 10-02 FBGRX 104.96 BlueChipGrowth YES
3.26 11-05 FFIDX 49.09 Fidelity YES
2.93 12-07 FNBGX 17.34 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index NO
2.81 13-01 FSMEX 57.23 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices YES
2.67 14-01 FIFNX 11.54 Founders YES
2.66 15-01 FBIOX 20.43 SBiotechnology YES
2.49 16-08 FSEAX 43.47 EmergingAsia YES
2.29 17-02 FCNTX 13.14 Contrafund YES
2.19 18-02 FDFFX 35.27 Independence YES
1.99 19-01 FMAGX 9.83 Magellan YES
1.99 20-01 FSPTX 18.82 STechnology YES

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(23Mar20) from STechnology(FSPTX)(18Feb20)
Mar20 1m-21% 3m-31% 6m-17% 12m-17% 24m-25%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(23Mar20) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(18Feb20)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SHealthCareServices(09Dec19)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SComputers(16Dec19)
20% – Cash(02Mar20) from STechnology(21Jan20)
20% – Cash(02Mar20) from SWireless(21Oct19)
Mar20 1m-3% 3m-7% 6m-0% 12m+0% 24m-4%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%

An OK  week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -1774, -874, and now -609 – up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 12, 10, and now 83.

In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 0% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 5% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 8% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ is above its 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is negative.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row but the sum is still negative.

Unlike the report in Saturday’s paper, I did not watch all 9 Star Wars in a row as the report’s author did. It was just a busy week at home.
One of the things which says inflation is the 2T CARES act and the 8T the federal reserve board use in quantitative easing. Nothing like increasing the national debt by 50% this month.

IRA#1
No investments

IRA#2
No investments

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
13.95 01-04 FSAGX 25.22 SGold YES
6.00 02-02 FSHCX 101.46 SHealthCareServices YES
5.89 03-07 FPHAX 22.57 SPharmaceuticals YES
5.03 04-06 FSPHX 27.76 SHealthCare YES
4.91 05-16 FTRNX 105.78 Trend YES
4.13 06-08 FHKCX 38.06 ChinaRegion YES
4.00 07-13 FOCPX 12.39 OTCPortfolio YES
3.90 08-07 FLGEX 20.99 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex YES
3.74 09-02 FNCMX 108.78 NasdaqCompositeIndex YES
3.40 10-02 FBGRX 104.96 BlueChipGrowth YES
3.26 11-05 FFIDX 49.09 Fidelity YES
2.93 12-07 FNBGX 17.34 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index NO
2.81 13-01 FSMEX 57.23 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices YES
2.67 14-01 FIFNX 11.54 Founders YES
2.66 15-01 FBIOX 20.43 SBiotechnology YES
2.49 16-08 FSEAX 43.47 EmergingAsia YES
2.29 17-02 FCNTX 13.14 Contrafund YES
2.19 18-02 FDFFX 35.27 Independence YES
1.99 19-01 FMAGX 9.83 Magellan YES
1.99 20-01 FSPTX 18.82 STechnology YES
8.56 01-03 FSAGX 23.85 SGold YES
1.61 02-06 FNBGX 17.09 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index NO
0.63 03-07 FHKCX 36.70 ChinaRegion NO
0.19 04-06 FPHAX 21.29 SPharmaceuticals YES
-0.41 05-01 FSHCX 95.02 SHealthCareServices NO
-0.77 06-15 FTRNX 99.79 Trend NO
-1.24 07-03 FFIDX 46.87 Fidelity NO
-1.24 08-06 FLGEX 19.91 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
-1.62 09-07 FSEAX 41.67 EmergingAsia NO
-1.71 10-05 FSPHX 25.91 SHealthCare YES
-1.92 11-12 FOCPX 11.66 OTCPortfolio NO
-1.93 12-05 FUAMX 11.96 IntermediateTreasuryBondIndex NO
-2.03 13-01 FNCMX 102.52 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
-2.42 14-01 FDFFX 33.64 Independence NO
-2.51 15-01 FDEQX 36.25 DisciplinedEquity YES
-2.58 16-01 FMAGX 9.38 Magellan NO
-2.87 17-43 FSCSX 18.30 SSoftware&ITServices NO
-2.92 18-04 FCVSX 28.47 ConvertibleSecurities NO
-2.97 19-01 FCNTX 12.45 Contrafund NO
-3.14 20-01 FBGRX 98.14 BlueChipGrowth NO

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(23Mar20) from STechnology(FSPTX)(18Feb20)
Mar20 1m-21% 3m-31% 6m-17% 12m-17% 24m-25%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(23Mar20) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(18Feb20)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SHealthCareServices(09Dec19)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SComputers(16Dec19)
20% – Cash(02Mar20) from STechnology(21Jan20)
20% – Cash(02Mar20) from SWireless(21Oct19)
Mar20 1m-3% 3m-7% 6m-0% 12m+0% 24m-4%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%

—
David John Flynn
LTC USA (Ret)
www.flynndj.com

A very good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -1578, -1774, and now -874 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 05, 12, and now 05.

In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 4% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 2% below its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 10% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ is above its 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is negative.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.

https://www.paceretfs.com/media/trendpilot_tracker.pdf provides the latest information on all 6 Pacer Trentpilot ETFs. Out of the 6 Pacer Trendpilot ETFs 5 are still in treasury bills and QQQ is half invested in treasury bills and half in NASDAQ-100 index.

IRA#1
No investments

IRA#2
No investments

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2
weeks).
8.56 01-03 FSAGX 23.85 SGold YES
1.61 02-06 FNBGX 17.09 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index NO
0.63 03-07 FHKCX 36.70 ChinaRegion NO
0.19 04-06 FPHAX 21.29 SPharmaceuticals YES
-0.41 05-01 FSHCX 95.02 SHealthCareServices NO
-0.77 06-15 FTRNX 99.79 Trend NO
-1.24 07-03 FFIDX 46.87 Fidelity NO
-1.24 08-06 FLGEX 19.91 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
-1.62 09-07 FSEAX 41.67 EmergingAsia NO
-1.71 10-05 FSPHX 25.91 SHealthCare YES
-1.92 11-12 FOCPX 11.66 OTCPortfolio NO
-1.93 12-05 FUAMX 11.96 IntermediateTreasuryBondIndex NO
-2.03 13-01 FNCMX 102.52 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
-2.42 14-01 FDFFX 33.64 Independence NO
-2.51 15-01 FDEQX 36.25 DisciplinedEquity YES
-2.58 16-01 FMAGX 9.38 Magellan NO
-2.87 17-43 FSCSX 18.30 SSoftware&ITServices NO
-2.92 18-04 FCVSX 28.47 ConvertibleSecurities NO
-2.97 19-01 FCNTX 12.45 Contrafund NO
-3.14 20-01 FBGRX 98.14 BlueChipGrowth NO
Last Week
4.01 01-05 FNBGX 17.48 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index YES
-1.38 02-04 FUAMX 12.04 IntermediateTreasuryBondIndex YES
-1.77 03-05 FPHAX 20.87 SPharmaceuticals YES
-4.88 04-06 FHKCX 34.68 ChinaRegion NO
-4.94 05-02 FSAGX 20.79 SGold YES
-6.57 06-05 FSPHX 24.65 SHealthCare YES
-7.85 07-34 FWRLX 9.53 SWireless NO
-8.36 08-06 FSEAX 38.85 EmergingAsia NO
-8.99 09-06 FBIOX 18.13 SBiotechnology NO
-9.65 10-01 FGOVX 11.20 GovernmentIncome YES
-9.90 11-45 FSPTX 16.64 STechnology NO
-9.91 12-04 FPURX 19.62 Puritian NO
-10.02 13-01 FSMEX 50.10 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices YES
-10.28 14-42 FSCSX 16.93 SSoftware&ITServices NO
-10.43 15-03 FDCPX 68.15 SComputers NO
-10.54 16-14 FTRNX 90.00 Trend NO
-10.64 17-02 FFIDX 42.44 Fidelity NO
-10.78 18-05 FLGEX 18.00 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
-10.97 19-03 FCVSX 26.15 ConvertibleSecurities NO
-11.10 20-11 FOCPX 10.58 OTCPortfolio NO

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(23Mar20) from STechnology(FSPTX)(18Feb20)
Mar20 1m-21% 3m-31% 6m-17% 12m-17% 24m-25%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(23Mar20) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(18Feb20)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SHealthCareServices(09Dec19)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SComputers(16Dec19)
20% – Cash(02Mar20) from STechnology(21Jan20)
20% – Cash(02Mar20) from SWireless(21Oct19)
Mar20 1m-3% 3m-7% 6m-0% 12m+0% 24m-4%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%

A good week week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -24.63, -1578, and now -1774 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 00, 05, and now 12.

In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 16% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 12% below its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 26% below its 50 day moving average,
None are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is negative.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.

There are ETFs which go up as the market goes down.
SH is the inverse of SPY and is 11% above its 50 day average.
PSQ is the inverse of QQQ and is 06% above its 50 day average.
RWM is the inverse of IWM and is 21% above its 50 day average.

It sure looks like we are in for some more down markets.
This year DIA (DowJonesIndustrials ETF) is down 22.62%
This year SPY (Standard&Jones 500 ETF) is down 19.45%
This year QQQ (NASDAQ 100 ETF) is down 10.24%
This year PTNQ (QQQ with a built in sell) is down 13.73%. PTNQ switched to 50% T-bills on 3/19. Currently the 200 day moving average is 0.07% above itself 5 days ago. When ths 200 day moving average declines by just 0.08% PTNQ will switch to 100% T-bills. https://www.paceretfs.com/media/trendpilot_tracker.pdf provides the latest information on all 6 Pacer Trentpilot ETFs.

IRA#1
No investments

IRA#2
No investments

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2
weeks).
4.01 01-05 FNBGX 17.48 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index YES
-1.38 02-04 FUAMX 12.04 IntermediateTreasuryBondIndex YES
-1.77 03-05 FPHAX 20.87 SPharmaceuticals YES
-4.88 04-06 FHKCX 34.68 ChinaRegion NO
-4.94 05-02 FSAGX 20.79 SGold YES
-6.57 06-05 FSPHX 24.65 SHealthCare YES
-7.85 07-34 FWRLX 9.53 SWireless NO
-8.36 08-06 FSEAX 38.85 EmergingAsia NO
-8.99 09-06 FBIOX 18.13 SBiotechnology NO
-9.65 10-01 FGOVX 11.20 GovernmentIncome YES
-9.90 11-45 FSPTX 16.64 STechnology NO
-9.91 12-04 FPURX 19.62 Puritian NO
-10.02 13-01 FSMEX 50.10 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices YES
-10.28 14-42 FSCSX 16.93 SSoftware&ITServices NO
-10.43 15-03 FDCPX 68.15 SComputers NO
-10.54 16-14 FTRNX 90.00 Trend NO
-10.64 17-02 FFIDX 42.44 Fidelity NO
-10.78 18-05 FLGEX 18.00 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
-10.97 19-03 FCVSX 26.15 ConvertibleSecurities NO
-11.10 20-11 FOCPX 10.58 OTCPortfolio NO
Last Week
3.57 01-04 FNBGX 17.37 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index YES
-1.78 02-03 FUAMX 12.00 IntermediateTreasuryBondIndex YES
-4.71 03-05 FHKCX 34.83 ChinaRegion NO
-5.30 04-04 FPHAX 20.14 SPharmaceuticals NO
-6.55 05-05 FSEAX 39.79 EmergingAsia NO
-6.92 06-01 FSAGX 20.41 SGold YES
-7.07 07-33 FWRLX 9.65 SWireless NO
-7.29 08-44 FSPTX 17.21 STechnology NO
-7.46 09-04 FSPHX 24.50 SHealthCare NO
-7.73 10-02 FCVSX 27.26 ConvertibleSecurities NO
-7.81 11-41 FSCSX 17.49 SSoftware&ITServices NO
-8.48 12-02 FDCPX 70.02 SComputers NO
-8.57 13-13 FTRNX 92.50 Trend NO
-8.66 14-05 FBIOX 18.28 SBiotechnology NO
-9.38 15-03 FPURX 19.84 Puritian NO
-9.75 16-01 FSHCX 86.69 SHealthCareServices NO
-9.86 17-10 FOCPX 10.79 OTCPortfolio NO
-9.94 18-01 FFIDX 43.01 Fidelity NO
-10.10 19-04 FLGEX 18.24 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
-10.16 20-01 FPBFX 28.52 PacificBasin NO

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(23Mar20) from STechnology(FSPTX)(18Feb20)
Nov19 1m+6% 3m-0% 6m+23% 12m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(23Mar20) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(18Feb20)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SHealthCareServices(09Dec19)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SComputers(16Dec19)
20% – Cash(02Mar20) from STechnology(21Jan20)
20% – Cash(02Mar20) from SWireless(21Oct19)
Nov19 1m+1% 3m+1% 6m+8% 12m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%