Month: February 2020

Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 763, 918, and now 781 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 02, 94, and now 03.

In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 2% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 5% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 1% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ, and IWM are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.

This weekend the Bloomberg Wall Street Week show reported on a University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey on where the market is going. They reported that every time over the last 15 years the value increased to above 60% there was a market correction of 10% to 47%. The latest reading of ~66% is higher than the index was at the in 2007.
Currently QQQ is 16% above its 200 day moving average. PTNQ, which follows the same index, is programed to switch to Treasury bills when the current value of the index crosses its 200 day moving average. If that were to happen Monday, any PTNQ investor would lose ~16% but any QQQ investor would loose as much as the index fell.
Select Gold is the number one fund this week. That in an indication of concern in the market. It may be because of the Coronavirus impact on the global supply chain so many companies use these days. It is difficult for Chinese companies to run factories when the workers are confined to their homes.

IRA#1
STechnology has a price of 21.78, a sell price 21.22, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – FTXL, SOXX)

IRA#2
SWireless has a price of 11.80, a sell price 11.36, a rank of 12, and is a hold. (ETF – IYZ, XTL)
STechnology has a price of 21.78, a sell price 21.22, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – FTXL, SOXX)
SSemiconductors has a price of 12.99, a sell price 12.51, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – XLK, IETC )

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 –  60% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2

weeks).
16.30 01-01 FSAGX 26.01 SGold YES
16.29 02-19 FSPTX 21.78 STechnology NO
15.66 03-36 FSELX 12.99 SSemiconductors NO
15.08 04-05 FSAVX 40.18 SAutomotive YES
14.41 05-07 FSCSX 21.99 SSoftware&ITServices NO
13.98 06-03 FSHCX 111.36 SHealthCareServices YES
13.17 07-03 FBIOX 22.93 SBiotechnology NO
12.90 08-06 FBSOX 82.97 SITServices NO
12.67 09-07 FBGRX 117.63 BlueChipGrowth NO
12.63 10-15 FOCPX 13.71 OTCPortfolio NO
12.58 11-08 FTRNX 115.70 Trend NO
12.18 12-28 FWRLX 11.80 SWireless NO
11.96 13-10 FNCMX 120.26 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
11.52 14-01 FDEGX 53.76 Growth Strategies NO
11.46 15-01 FSHOX 66.98 SConstructionandHousing NO
11.29 16-01 FPHAX 23.89 SPharmaceuticals NO
10.94 17-06 FFIDX 53.94 Fidelity NO
10.90 18-03 FDEQX 42.69 DisciplinedEquity NO
10.88 19-15 FDCPX 86.19 SComputers NO
10.86 20-01 FDCAX 36.18 CapitalAppreciation NO
Last Week
20.31 01-18 FSPTX 22.34 STechnology YES
18.24 02-35 FSELX 13.17 SSemiconductors YES
17.28 03-06 FSCSX 22.37 SSoftware&ITServices YES
15.41 04-14 FDCPX 89.20 SComputers YES
15.21 05-14 FOCPX 13.93 OTCPortfolio YES
15.06 06-07 FTRNX 117.46 Trend YES
14.89 07-05 FBSOX 83.86 SITServices YES
14.61 08-01 FHKCX 41.86 ChinaRegion YES
14.58 09-06 FBGRX 118.82 BlueChipGrowth YES
14.48 10-09 FNCMX 122.19 NasdaqCompositeIndex YES
14.43 11-27 FWRLX 11.96 SWireless YES
13.82 12-02 FSHCX 110.38 SHealthCareServices YES
13.45 13-05 FFIDX 54.84 Fidelity YES
13.29 14-04 FSAVX 39.24 SAutomotive YES
13.29 15-02 FDEQX 43.36 DisciplinedEquity YES
13.26 16-02 FBIOX 22.79 SBiotechnology YES
13.09 17-03 FLGEX 23.24 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex YES
13.05 18-02 FTQGX 28.19 FocusedStock YES
12.88 19-04 FDFFX 39.80 Independence YES
12.55 20-01 FMAGX 11.09 Magellan YES

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(18Feb20) from Cash(03Feb20)
Nov19 1m+6% 3m-0% 6m+23% 12m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(18Feb20) from Cash(03Feb20)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SHealthCareServices(09Dec19)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SComputers(16Dec19)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(21Jan20) from SAutomotive(FSAVX)(28Oct19)
20% – SWireless(FWRLX)(21Oct19) from Cash(26Aug19)
Nov19 1m+1% 3m+1% 6m+8% 12m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
—
David John Flynn
LTC USA (Ret)
www.flynndj.com

A good week, a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 521, 763, and now 918 – up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 01, 02, and now 94.

In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 8% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 2% below its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ, and IWM are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Time to buy – Sum of all deviations is up 2 weeks in a row.

The top 5 Fidelity funds based on a 3 month return as of 31Dec earned -2.48% in January based on 31Jan Fidelity list. However you cannot invest until the list is available. I invested in the 5 funds as soon as the 31Dec list was available, my gain was 1.42% as of 10Feb when the next list was available. On 10Feb I invested in the new list of the top 5 Fidelity funds based on a 3 month return. Both SBiotechnology and SPharmaceuticals were on both lists, gaining 2.8% and 1.7% in January.

IRA#1
STechnology has a price of 22.34, a sell price TBD, a rank of 01, and is a buy. (ETF – FTXL, SOXX)

IRA#2
SWireless has a price of 11.96, a sell price 11.36, a rank of 11, and is a hold. (ETF – IYZ, XTL)
STechnology has a price of 22.34, a sell price 21.22, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – FTXL, SOXX)
SSemiconductors has a price of 13.17, a sell price TBD, a rank of 02, and is a buy. (ETF – XLK, IETC )

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Invest 100% in STechnology
IRA #2 – Invest 20% in SSemiconductors

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund
price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
20.31 01-18 FSPTX 22.34 STechnology YES
18.24 02-35 FSELX 13.17 SSemiconductors YES
17.28 03-06 FSCSX 22.37 SSoftware&ITServices YES
15.41 04-14 FDCPX 89.20 SComputers YES
15.21 05-14 FOCPX 13.93 OTCPortfolio YES
15.06 06-07 FTRNX 117.46 Trend YES
14.89 07-05 FBSOX 83.86 SITServices YES
14.61 08-01 FHKCX 41.86 ChinaRegion YES
14.58 09-06 FBGRX 118.82 BlueChipGrowth YES
14.48 10-09 FNCMX 122.19 NasdaqCompositeIndex YES
14.43 11-27 FWRLX 11.96 SWireless YES
13.82 12-02 FSHCX 110.38 SHealthCareServices YES
13.45 13-05 FFIDX 54.84 Fidelity YES
13.29 14-04 FSAVX 39.24 SAutomotive YES
13.29 15-02 FDEQX 43.36 DisciplinedEquity YES
13.26 16-02 FBIOX 22.79 SBiotechnology YES
13.09 17-03 FLGEX 23.24 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex YES
13.05 18-02 FTQGX 28.19 FocusedStock YES
12.88 19-04 FDFFX 39.80 Independence YES
12.55 20-01 FMAGX 11.09 Magellan YES
Last Week
18.23 01-17 FSPTX 21.72 STechnology NO
15.92 02-05 FSCSX 21.91 SSoftware&ITServices NO
15.12 03-13 FDCPX 88.25 SComputers NO
14.13 04-34 FSELX 12.59 SSemiconductors NO
13.47 05-13 FOCPX 13.61 OTCPortfolio NO
13.16 06-06 FTRNX 114.61 Trend NO
12.83 07-08 FNCMX 119.52 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
12.70 08-01 FBIOX 22.52 SBiotechnology NO
12.59 09-12 FPHAX 23.88 SPharmaceuticals NO
12.26 10-05 FBGRX 115.53 BlueChipGrowth NO
12.18 11-04 FBSOX 81.24 SITServices NO
11.97 12-03 FSAVX 38.51 SAutomotive NO
11.65 13-04 FFIDX 53.59 Fidelity NO
11.33 14-02 FLGEX 22.72 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
11.26 15-26 FWRLX 11.54 SWireless NO
11.09 16-02 FDEQX 42.22 DisciplinedEquity YES
11.05 17-04 FSLBX 84.68 SBrokerage&InvestmentManagement NO
10.62 18-03 FDFFX 38.74 Independence NO
10.56 19-01 FTQGX 27.38 FocusedStock NO
10.45 20-01 FSHCX 106.34 SHealthCareServices NO

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(18Feb20) from Cash(03Feb20)
Nov19 1m+6% 3m-0% 6m+23% 12m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(18Feb20) from Cash(03Feb20)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SHealthCareServices(09Dec19)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SComputers(16Dec19)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(21Jan20) from SAutomotive(FSAVX)(28Oct19)
20% – SWireless(FWRLX)(21Oct19) from Cash(26Aug19)
Nov19 1m+1% 3m+1% 6m+8% 12m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%

A good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 818, 521, and now 763 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 04, 01, and now 02.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 7% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 2% below its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ, and IWM are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.

I am sorry I am a little late – working both Sat and Sun.

IRA#1
none

IRA#2
SWireless has a price of 11.54, a sell price 11.08, a rank of 15, and is a hold. (ETF – IYZ, XTL)
STechnology has a price of 21.72. a sell price 20.63, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – FTXL, SOXX)

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
18.23 01-17 FSPTX 21.72 STechnology NO
15.92 02-05 FSCSX 21.91 SSoftware&ITServices NO
15.12 03-13 FDCPX 88.25 SComputers NO
14.13 04-34 FSELX 12.59 SSemiconductors NO
13.47 05-13 FOCPX 13.61 OTCPortfolio NO
13.16 06-06 FTRNX 114.61 Trend NO
12.83 07-08 FNCMX 119.52 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
12.70 08-01 FBIOX 22.52 SBiotechnology NO
12.59 09-12 FPHAX 23.88 SPharmaceuticals NO
12.26 10-05 FBGRX 115.53 BlueChipGrowth NO
12.18 11-04 FBSOX 81.24 SITServices NO
11.97 12-03 FSAVX 38.51 SAutomotive NO
11.65 13-04 FFIDX 53.59 Fidelity NO
11.33 14-02 FLGEX 22.72 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
11.26 15-26 FWRLX 11.54 SWireless NO
11.09 16-02 FDEQX 42.22 DisciplinedEquity YES
11.05 17-04 FSLBX 84.68 SBrokerage&InvestmentManagement NO
10.62 18-03 FDFFX 38.74 Independence NO
10.56 19-01 FTQGX 27.38 FocusedStock NO
10.45 20-01 FSHCX 106.34 SHealthCareServices NO
Last Week
14.21 01-16 FSPTX 20.78 STechnology NO
11.88 02-04 FSCSX 20.97 SSoftware&ITServices NO
11.79 03-33 FSELX 12.24 SSemiconductors NO
11.46 04-12 FDCPX 84.77 SComputers NO
11.13 05-02 FSAGX 24.45 SGold NO
10.08 06-12 FOCPX 13.11 OTCPortfolio NO
10.06 07-05 FTRNX 111.83 Trend NO
9.97 08-11 FPHAX 23.17 SPharmaceuticals NO
9.86 09-03 FBSOX 79.05 SITServices NO
9.65 10-01 FSUTX 100.98 SUtilities YES
9.37 11-02 FSAVX 37.38 SAutomotive NO
9.26 12-03 FSLBX 82.83 SBrokerage&InvestmentManagement NO
9.14 13-07 FNCMX 114.83 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
8.82 14-25 FWRLX 11.22 SWireless NO
8.70 15-04 FBGRX 111.14 BlueChipGrowth NO
8.67 16-03 FFIDX 51.84 Fidelity NO
8.12 17-02 FDFFX 37.65 Independence NO
8.01 18-01 FDEQX 40.81 DisciplinedEquity NO
7.95 19-01 FCPGX 27.65 SmallCapGrowth NO
7.86 20-01 FLGEX 21.88 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO

It will be some time before I get all of the % returns correct.
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(03Feb20) from SSemiconductors(16Sep19)
Nov19 1m+6% 3m-0% 6m+23% 12m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SHealthCareServices(09Dec19)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SComputers(16Dec19)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SSemiconductors(16Sep19)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(21Jan20) from SAutomotive(FSAVX)(28Oct19)
20% – SWireless(FWRLX)(21Oct19) from Cash(26Aug19)
Nov19 1m+1% 3m+1% 6m+8% 12m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%

Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 1004, 818, and now 521 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 60, 04, and now 01.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 0% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 2% below its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ, and IWM are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.

The market seems to have evaluated the coronavirus impact on world business and it is not good. The closing of cities in China, businesses, and restrictions on travel has impacted business world wide. This may be the black swan which ends the current bull market.
PTNQ is still 12% above its 200 day moving average at which point it will start converting to T-Bill investments. It is even 3% above its 50 day moving average. It is also down 3% from its peak price which was on 01/24.

IRA#1
SSemiconductors has a price of 12.24, a sell price 12.45, a rank of 03, and is a SELL. (ETF – XSD, SMH)

IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 12.24, a sell price 12.45, a rank of 03, and is a SELL. (ETF – XSD, SMH)
SWireless has a price of 11.22, a sell price 11.08, a rank of 14, and is a hold. (ETF – IYZ, XTL)
SHealthCareServices has a price of 100.86, a sell price 102.37, a rank of 42, and is a SELL. (ETF – GNOM, BBC)
SComputers has a price of 84.77, a sell price 85.41, a rank of 04, and is a SELL. (ETF – SNSR, SMH)
STechnology has a price of 20.78. a sell price 20.13, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – FTXL, SOXX)

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – sell SSemiconductors
IRA #2 – sell SSemiconductors, SHealthCareServices,s ell SComputers

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
14.21 01-16 FSPTX 20.78 STechnology NO
11.88 02-04 FSCSX 20.97 SSoftware&ITServices NO
11.79 03-33 FSELX 12.24 SSemiconductors NO
11.46 04-12 FDCPX 84.77 SComputers NO
11.13 05-02 FSAGX 24.45 SGold NO
10.08 06-12 FOCPX 13.11 OTCPortfolio NO
10.06 07-05 FTRNX 111.83 Trend NO
9.97 08-11 FPHAX 23.17 SPharmaceuticals NO
9.86 09-03 FBSOX 79.05 SITServices NO
9.65 10-01 FSUTX 100.98 SUtilities YES
9.37 11-02 FSAVX 37.38 SAutomotive NO
9.26 12-03 FSLBX 82.83 SBrokerage&InvestmentManagement NO
9.14 13-07 FNCMX 114.83 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
8.82 14-25 FWRLX 11.22 SWireless NO
8.70 15-04 FBGRX 111.14 BlueChipGrowth NO
8.67 16-03 FFIDX 51.84 Fidelity NO
8.12 17-02 FDFFX 37.65 Independence NO
8.01 18-01 FDEQX 40.81 DisciplinedEquity NO
7.95 19-01 FCPGX 27.65 SmallCapGrowth NO
7.86 20-01 FLGEX 21.88 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
Last Week
20.48 01-32 FSELX 13.11 SSemiconductors NO
18.54 02-11 FDCPX 89.61 SComputers NO
17.07 03-15 FSPTX 21.14 STechnology NO
13.29 04-03 FSCSX 21.10 SSoftware&ITServices NO
12.74 05-24 FWRLX 11.57 SWireless NO
12.69 06-11 FOCPX 13.35 OTCPortfolio NO
12.60 07-02 FBSOX 80.60 SITServices NO
12.43 08-04 FTRNX 113.63 Trend NO
12.02 09-01 FSAGX 24.50 SGold YES
11.66 10-06 FNCMX 116.91 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
11.46 11-03 FBGRX 113.44 BlueChipGrowth NO
11.38 12-11 FSHCX 106.34 SHealthCareServices NO
11.27 13-10 FPHAX 23.32 SPharmaceuticals NO
11.13 14-02 FFIDX 52.77 Fidelity NO
10.94 15-01 FSAVX 37.73 SAutomotive NO
10.76 16-01 FLATX 29.47 LatinAmerica NO
10.74 17-01 FDEGX 52.27 Growth Strategies NO
10.57 18-02 FSLBX 83.42 SBrokerage&InvestmentManagement NO
10.52 19-07 FHKCX 39.75 ChinaRegion NO
10.51 20-01 FDFFX 38.32 Independence NO

It will be some time before I get all of the % returns correct.
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(03Feb20) from SSemiconductors(16Sep19)
Nov19 1m+6% 3m-0% 6m+23% 12m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SHealthCareServices(09Dec19)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SComputers(16Dec19)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SSemiconductors(16Sep19)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(21Jan20) from SAutomotive(FSAVX)(28Oct19)
20% – SWireless(FWRLX)(21Oct19) from Cash(26Aug19)
Nov19 1m+1% 3m+1% 6m+8% 12m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%