Month: January 2020

Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 868, 1004, and now 818 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 08, 60, and now 04.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 6% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 1% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ, and IWM are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.

As I’ve mentioned before, PTNQ is my favorite long time investment. It is one of the 7 Pacer Trendpilot funds offered by Pacer ETFs (https://www.paceretfs.com/), all of which automatically start to move out of the market when the price of the index they follow crosses the 200 day moving average of the index. They do it internally so there is no buy and sell reporting to the ETF owner. PTNQ follows the Nasdaq 100 index. Another ETF which follows the same index is QQQ – but QQQ always is fully invested in the index – up or down. Currently QQQ is 15% above its 200 day moving average which indicates if the Nasdaq 100 falls about 15% QQQ will remain fully invested while PTNQ will start to change its portfolio to US T-Bills.

IRA#1
SSemiconductors has a price of 13.11, a sell price 12.45, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)

IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 13.11, a sell price 12.45, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)
SWireless has a price of 11.57, a sell price 11.08, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – IYZ, XTL)
SHealthCareServices has a price of 106.34, a sell price 102.37, a rank of 12, and is a hold. (ETF – GNOM, BBC)
SComputers has a price of 89.61, a sell price 85.41, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – SNSR, SMH)
STechnology has a price of 21.14. a sell price 20.13, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – FTXL, SOXX)

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
20.48 01-32 FSELX 13.11 SSemiconductors NO
18.54 02-11 FDCPX 89.61 SComputers NO
17.07 03-15 FSPTX 21.14 STechnology NO
13.29 04-03 FSCSX 21.10 SSoftware&ITServices NO
12.74 05-24 FWRLX 11.57 SWireless NO
12.69 06-11 FOCPX 13.35 OTCPortfolio NO
12.60 07-02 FBSOX 80.60 SITServices NO
12.43 08-04 FTRNX 113.63 Trend NO
12.02 09-01 FSAGX 24.50 SGold YES
11.66 10-06 FNCMX 116.91 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
11.46 11-03 FBGRX 113.44 BlueChipGrowth NO
11.38 12-11 FSHCX 106.34 SHealthCareServices NO
11.27 13-10 FPHAX 23.32 SPharmaceuticals NO
11.13 14-02 FFIDX 52.77 Fidelity NO
10.94 15-01 FSAVX 37.73 SAutomotive NO
10.76 16-01 FLATX 29.47 LatinAmerica NO
10.74 17-01 FDEGX 52.27 Growth Strategies NO
10.57 18-02 FSLBX 83.42 SBrokerage&InvestmentManagement NO
10.52 19-07 FHKCX 39.75 ChinaRegion NO
10.51 20-01 FDFFX 38.32 Independence NO
Last Week
20.95 01-31 FSELX 13.02 SSemiconductors NO
20.11 02-10 FDCPX 89.91 SComputers YES
18.41 03-14 FSPTX 21.19 STechnology YES
16.81 04-06 FHKCX 41.78 ChinaRegion YES
15.58 05-09 FPHAX 24.08 SPharmaceuticals YES
14.73 06-10 FOCPX 13.50 OTCPortfolio YES
14.71 07-06 FSEAX 48.05 EmergingAsia YES
14.38 08-23 FWRLX 11.66 SWireless YES
14.19 09-02 FSCSX 21.12 SSoftware&ITServices YES
13.97 10-09 FBIOX 22.45 SBiotechnology YES
13.61 11-03 FTRNX 114.07 Trend YES
13.54 12-10 FSHCX 107.76 SHealthCareServices YES
13.21 13-05 FNCMX 117.81 NasdaqCompositeIndex YES
13.02 14-02 FBGRX 114.33 BlueChipGrowth YES
12.91 15-01 FBSOX 80.29 SITServices YES
12.84 16-01 FSLBX 84.66 SBrokerage&InvestmentManagement YES
12.78 17-02 FCPGX 28.61 SmallCapGrowth YES
12.69 18-01 FFIDX 53.20 Fidelity YES
12.68 19-05 FEMKX 36.31 EmergingMarkets YES
11.98 20-05 FSPHX 29.37 SHealthCare YES

It will be some time before I get all of the % returns correct.
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SSemiconductors(16Sep19) from SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19))
Nov19 1m+6% 3m-0% 6m+23% 12m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(21Jan20) from SAutomotive(FSAVX)(28Oct19)
20% – SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(09Dec19) from LatinAmerica(FLATX)(04Nov19)
20% – SWireless(FWRLX)(21Oct19) from Cash(26Aug19)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(16Dec19) From SConstructionandHousing(FSHOX)(16Sep19)
20% – SSemiconductors(09Sep19) from Cash(19Aug19)
Nov19 1m+1% 3m+1% 6m+8% 12m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%

A good week, a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 822, 868, and now 1004 – up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 09, 08, and now 60.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 5% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 7% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ, and IWM are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
A time to buy – Sum of all deviations is up 2 weeks in a row.

Tom McClellan of McClellan Financial Publications sends out a email with a free chart each week of that he thinks is interesting. On 1/17 his chart was “SPY Number of Shares Outstanding Continuing to Rise.” “This week’s chart shows an interesting representation of bullish trader sentiment. The number of SPY shares outstanding is above its upper 50-1 Bollinger Band, and continuing to rise. Check out the other instances when this indicator has gone above that upper 50-1 band. You will notice that all of them in this chart except one (12/19) were associated with meaningful tops leading to noticeable corrections.”

IRA#1
SSemiconductors has a price of 13.02, a sell price 12.37, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)

IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 13.02, a sell price 12.37, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)
SWireless has a price of 11.66, a sell price 11.08, a rank of 08, and is a hold. (ETF – IYZ, XTL)
SAutomotive has a price of 37.76, a sell price 35.87, a rank of 23, and is a sell. (ETF – RGI, EXI)
SHealthCareServices has a price of 107.76, a sell price 102.37, a rank of 12, and is a hold. (ETF – GNOM, BBC)
SComputers has a price of 89.91, a sell price 85.41, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – SNSR, SMH)
STechnology has a price of 21.19. a sell price TBD, a rank of 03, and is a buy. (ETF – FTXL, SOXX)

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – Sell SAutomotive, buy STechnology

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
20.95 01-31 FSELX 13.02 SSemiconductors NO
20.11 02-10 FDCPX 89.91 SComputers YES
18.41 03-14 FSPTX 21.19 STechnology YES
16.81 04-06 FHKCX 41.78 ChinaRegion YES
15.58 05-09 FPHAX 24.08 SPharmaceuticals YES
14.73 06-10 FOCPX 13.50 OTCPortfolio YES
14.71 07-06 FSEAX 48.05 EmergingAsia YES
14.38 08-23 FWRLX 11.66 SWireless YES
14.19 09-02 FSCSX 21.12 SSoftware&ITServices YES
13.97 10-09 FBIOX 22.45 SBiotechnology YES
13.61 11-03 FTRNX 114.07 Trend YES
13.54 12-10 FSHCX 107.76 SHealthCareServices YES
13.21 13-05 FNCMX 117.81 NasdaqCompositeIndex YES
13.02 14-02 FBGRX 114.33 BlueChipGrowth YES
12.91 15-01 FBSOX 80.29 SITServices YES
12.84 16-01 FSLBX 84.66 SBrokerage&InvestmentManagement YES
12.78 17-02 FCPGX 28.61 SmallCapGrowth YES
12.69 18-01 FFIDX 53.20 Fidelity YES
12.68 19-05 FEMKX 36.31 EmergingMarkets YES
11.98 20-05 FSPHX 29.37 SHealthCare YES
Last Week
18.82 01-09 FDCPX 88.00 SComputers NO
18.64 02-30 FSELX 12.63 SSemiconductors NO
16.24 03-13 FSPTX 20.60 STechnology NO
15.68 04-05 FHKCX 41.01 ChinaRegion YES
14.07 05-08 FPHAX 23.57 SPharmaceuticals NO
13.22 06-05 FSEAX 47.06 EmergingAsia YES
13.07 07-08 FBIOX 22.11 SBiotechnology NO
13.05 08-09 FOCPX 13.20 OTCPortfolio NO
12.73 09-09 FSHCX 106.22 SHealthCareServices NO
12.29 10-22 FWRLX 11.36 SWireless NO
12.03 11-02 FTRNX 111.68 Trend NO
11.86 12-06 FSESX 24.24 SEnergyServices NO
11.75 13-04 FEMKX 35.77 EmergingMarkets NO
11.73 14-01 FSCSX 20.51 SSoftware&ITServices NO
11.54 15-04 FSPHX 29.07 SHealthCare NO
11.51 16-04 FNCMX 115.23 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
11.12 17-01 FBGRX 111.64 BlueChipGrowth NO
11.11 18-01 FPBFX 35.23 PacificBasin NO
10.78 19-05 FLATX 29.13 LatinAmerica NO
10.69 20-01 FCPGX 27.89 SmallCapGrowth NO

It will be some time before I get all of the % returns correct.
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SSemiconductors(16Sep19) from SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19))
Nov19 1m+6% 3m-0% 6m+23% 12m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(20Jan20) from SAutomotive(FSAVX)(28Oct19)
20% – SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(09Dec19) from LatinAmerica(FLATX)(04Nov19)
20% – SWireless(FWRLX)(21Oct19) from Cash(26Aug19)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(16Dec19) From SConstructionandHousing(FSHOX)(16Sep19)
20% – SSemiconductors(09Sep19) from Cash(19Aug19)
Nov19 1m+1% 3m+1% 6m+8% 12m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%

A good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 882, 822, and now 868 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 57, 09, and now 08.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 6% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 2% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ, and IWM are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.

It is sure looking like 1999 all over again. The ETFs representing the DJIA – DIA, S&P500 – SPY, Nasdaq100 – QQQ, all hit new highs on 09Jan. They all did it before during the week of 30Mar00 and then went down for ~18 months.
The Fidelity mutual fund short term performance numbers for December were finally published by Fidelity on 08Jan. Both the top 5 and 10 funds over 3 month identified on the November report gained 4.1% for the month. However the performance numbers Fidelity published are for the calendar month but the fund list is not published at month end.
Therefore I invested $1000 in each of the top 5 funds from the end of November report. The funds were:
FBIOX – SBiotechnology,
FSHCX – SHealthCareServices,
FSPHX – SHealthCare,
FSELX – SSemiconductors,
FPHAX – SPharmaceuticals.
If this investments proves to be as profitable as my analyis, it will be a way anyone can get the data, and I can eliminate my analysis.

https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/fund-screener/results/table/short-term-perf/cumulativeTotalReturnsMonth3/desc/1?fidelityFundOnly=F&order=fidelityFundOnly

IRA#1
SSemiconductors has a price of 12.63, a sell price 12.00, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)

IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 12.63, a sell price 12.00, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)
SWireless has a price of 11.36, a sell price 10.79, a rank of 10, and is a hold. (ETF – IYZ, XTL)
SAutomotive has a price of 36.93, a sell price 35.53, a rank of 29, and is a hold for now. (ETF – RGI, EXI)
SHealthCareServices has a price of 106.22, a sell price 100.91, a rank of 09, and is a hold. (ETF – GNOM, BBC)
SComputers has a price of 88.00, a sell price 83.60, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – SNSR, SMH)

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
18.82 01-09 FDCPX 88.00 SComputers NO
18.64 02-30 FSELX 12.63 SSemiconductors NO
16.24 03-13 FSPTX 20.60 STechnology NO
15.68 04-05 FHKCX 41.01 ChinaRegion YES
14.07 05-08 FPHAX 23.57 SPharmaceuticals NO
13.22 06-05 FSEAX 47.06 EmergingAsia YES
13.07 07-08 FBIOX 22.11 SBiotechnology NO
13.05 08-09 FOCPX 13.20 OTCPortfolio NO
12.73 09-09 FSHCX 106.22 SHealthCareServices NO
12.29 10-22 FWRLX 11.36 SWireless NO
12.03 11-02 FTRNX 111.68 Trend NO
11.86 12-06 FSESX 24.24 SEnergyServices NO
11.75 13-04 FEMKX 35.77 EmergingMarkets NO
11.73 14-01 FSCSX 20.51 SSoftware&ITServices NO
11.54 15-04 FSPHX 29.07 SHealthCare NO
11.51 16-04 FNCMX 115.23 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
11.12 17-01 FBGRX 111.64 BlueChipGrowth NO
11.11 18-01 FPBFX 35.23 PacificBasin NO
10.78 19-05 FLATX 29.13 LatinAmerica NO
10.69 20-01 FCPGX 27.89 SmallCapGrowth NO
Last Week
18.77 01-29 FSELX 12.52 SSemiconductors NO
15.68 02-05 FSESX 24.91 SEnergyServices YES
14.69 03-08 FDCPX 84.10 SComputers NO
14.28 04-12 FSPTX 20.08 STechnology NO
14.14 05-04 FHKCX 40.13 ChinaRegion YES
13.31 06-07 FPHAX 23.24 SPharmaceuticals NO
12.79 07-04 FLATX 29.49 LatinAmerica NO
12.56 08-02 FSAGX 24.22 SGold YES
11.90 09-07 FBIOX 21.73 SBiotechnology NO
11.23 10-21 FWRLX 11.18 SWireless NO
11.08 11-08 FOCPX 12.88 OTCPortfolio NO
11.03 12-04 FSEAX 45.83 EmergingAsia YES
10.98 13-13 FSAVX 37.10 SAutomotive NO
10.88 14-08 FSJCX 103.78 SHealthCareServices NO
10.87 15-12 FEXPX 21.92 Export&Multinational NO
10.56 16-03 FEMKX 35.17 EmergingMarkets NO
10.28 17-03 FNCMX 113.27 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
10.13 18-01 FTRNX 109.09 Trend NO
9.79 19-03 FSPHX 28.44 SHealthCare NO
9.74 20-01 FGRIX 42.37 Growth&Income NO

It will be some time before I get all of the % returns correct.
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SSemiconductors(16Sep19) from SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19))
Nov19 1m+6% 3m-0% 6m+23% 12m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(09Dec19) from LatinAmerica(FLATX)(04Nov19)
20% – SAutomotive(FSAVX)(28Oct19) from Cash(16Sep19)
20% – SWireless(FWRLX)(21Oct19) from Cash(26Aug19)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(16Dec19) From SConstructionandHousing(FSHOX)(16Sep19)
20% – SSemiconductors(09Sep19) from Cash(19Aug19)
Nov19 1m+1% 3m+1% 6m+8% 12m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%

Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 863, 882, and now 822 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 75, 57, and now 09.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 5% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ, and IWM are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.

It is sure looking like 1999 all over again. At that time the market continued up until the middle of 2000 before most of the stocks went down. Some market watchers are calling this a melt up – which generally ends badly. Just make sure your are watching your investments and have your sell prices noted.

IRA#1
SSemiconductors has a price of 12.52, a sell price 11.92, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)

IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 12.52, a sell price 11.92, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)
SWireless has a price of 11.18, a sell price 10.67, a rank of 10, and is a hold. (ETF – IYZ, XTL)
SAutomotive has a price of 37.10, a sell price 35.53, a rank of 13, and is a hold. (ETF – RGI, EXI)
SHealthCareServices has a price of 103.78, a sell price 100.00, a rank of 14, and is a hold. (ETF – GNOM, BBC)
SComputers has a price of 84.10, a sell price 79.90, a rank of 03 and is a hold. (ETF – SNSR, SMH)

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
18.77 01-29 FSELX 12.52 SSemiconductors NO
15.68 02-05 FSESX 24.91 SEnergyServices YES
14.69 03-08 FDCPX 84.10 SComputers NO
14.28 04-12 FSPTX 20.08 STechnology NO
14.14 05-04 FHKCX 40.13 ChinaRegion YES
13.31 06-07 FPHAX 23.24 SPharmaceuticals NO
12.79 07-04 FLATX 29.49 LatinAmerica NO
12.56 08-02 FSAGX 24.22 SGold YES
11.90 09-07 FBIOX 21.73 SBiotechnology NO
11.23 10-21 FWRLX 11.18 SWireless NO
11.08 11-08 FOCPX 12.88 OTCPortfolio NO
11.03 12-04 FSEAX 45.83 EmergingAsia YES
10.98 13-13 FSAVX 37.10 SAutomotive NO
10.88 14-08 FSJCX 103.78 SHealthCareServices NO
10.87 15-12 FEXPX 21.92 Export&Multinational NO
10.56 16-03 FEMKX 35.17 EmergingMarkets NO
10.28 17-03 FNCMX 113.27 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
10.13 18-01 FTRNX 109.09 Trend NO
9.79 19-03 FSPHX 28.44 SHealthCare NO
9.74 20-01 FGRIX 42.37 Growth&Income NO
Last Week
0.24 01-28 FSELX 12.55 SSemiconductors NO
15.35 02-06 FBIOX 22.26 SBiotechnology NO
15.20 03-07 FDCPX 83.82 SComputers YES
14.94 04-06 FPHAX 23.41 SPharmaceuticals NO
14.77 05-04 FSESX 24.51 SEnergyServices YES
14.52 06-11 FSPTX 19.97 STechnology YES
13.48 07-03 FHKCX 39.60 ChinaRegion YES
13.47 08-03 FLATX 29.47 LatinAmerica YES
13.11 09-07 FSJCX 105.26 SHealthCareServices YES
12.39 10-20 FWRLX 11.23 SWireless YES
12.22 11-12 FSAVX 37.30 SAutomotive NO
11.86 12-01 FSAGX 23.91 SGold NO
11.57 13-02 FSPHX 28.75 SHealthCare YES
11.55 14-07 FOCPX 12.86 OTCPortfolio YES
11.41 15-11 FEXPX 21.90 Export&Multinational NO
11.08 16-02 FEMKX 35.14 EmergingMarkets YES
11.07 17-11 FSRBX 28.37 SBanking NO
10.97 18-03 FSEAX 45.54 EmergingAsia YES
10.68 19-02 FNCMX 113.07 NasdaqCompositeIndex YES
10.42 20-01 FPBFX 34.63 PacificBasin YES

It will be some time before I get all of the % returns correct.
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SSemiconductors(16Sep19) from SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19))
Nov19 1m+6% 3m-0% 6m+23% 12m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(09Dec19) from LatinAmerica(FLATX)(04Nov19)
20% – SAutomotive(FSAVX)(28Oct19) from Cash(16Sep19)
20% – SWireless(FWRLX)(21Oct19) from Cash(26Aug19)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(16Dec19) From SConstructionandHousing(FSHOX)(16Sep19)
20% – SSemiconductors(09Sep19) from Cash(19Aug19)
Nov19 1m+1% 3m+1% 6m+8% 12m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%