Month: October 2019

A good week, a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 349, 400, and now 481 – up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 26, 60, and now 56.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 2% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 5% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 2% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ, and IWM are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
A time to buy – Sum of all deviations is up 2 weeks in a row.

November has traditionally been the start of the 6 months growth season – which ends in “sell in May and go away.” Last year it was not true as the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) decided to raise interest rates and the market fell through the end of December. Then the FRB changed their mind and the market started up.
It should be noted that Fidelity had dropped commissions on all ETFs and management fees on some index funds. The only “expensive” investments are standard mutual funds which have sell restrictions, management fees, and short therm trading fees. Time to get out of mutuals and into ETFs.

IRA#1
SSemiconductors has a price of 11.41, a sell price 10.84, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)

IRA#2
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 18.12 a sell price 17.78, a rank of 60, and is a hold for now. (ETF – ITA, XAR)
SSemiconductors has a price of 11.41, a sell price 10.84, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)
SConstructionandHousing has a price of 64.88, a sell price 61.64, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – ITB, PKB)
SWireless has a price of 10.70, a sell price 10.17, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – IYZ, XTL)
SAutomotive has a price of 26.03, a sell price TPD, a rank of 03, and is a Buy. (ETF – RGI, EXI)

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – Invest 20% in SAutomotive

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
15.51 01-19 FSELX 11.41 SSemiconductors NO
12.31 02-29 FSHOX 64.88 SConstructionandHousing NO
10.53 03-02 FSAVX 36.03 SAutomotive YES
9.99 04-06 FLATX 28.07 LatinAmerica YES
9.64 05-11 FWRLX 10.70 SWireless NO
8.74 06-22 FSAGX 22.71 SGold NO
8.67 07-03 FEXPX 20.38 Export&Multinational YES
8.44 08-36 FSPTX 18.18 STechnology NO
7.80 09-07 FRESX 47.22 RealEstateInvestment NO
7.80 10-03 FISVX 20.56 SmallCapValueIndex YES
7.66 11-02 FSRBX 27.21 SBanking YES
7.36 12-08 FDCPX 77.01 SComputers NO
7.27 13-04 FHKCX 35.94 ChinaRegion NO
7.15 14-06 FSRNX 17.57 RealEstateIndex NO
7.03 15-11 FIUIX 28.96 Telecom&Utilities NO
6.93 16-11 FSUTX 96.33 SUtilities NO
6.92 17-02 FGRIX 39.53 Growth&Income YES
6.14 18-02 FIDSX 10.64 SFinancialServices YES
5.95 19-01 FSEAX 44.60 EmergingAsia YES
5.94 20-01 FPHAX 21.74 SPharmaceuticals YES
Last Week
12.65 01-28 FSHOX 64.65 SConstructionandHousing NO
10.74 02-18 FSELX 10.85 SSemiconductors YES
10.20 03-10 FWRLX 10.70 SWireless YES
8.75 04-06 FRESX 47.44 RealEstateInvestment NO
7.91 05-10 FIUIX 29.09 Telecom&Utilities NO
7.78 06-07 FDCPX 77.01 SComputers NO
7.55 07-05 FSRNX 17.57 RealEstateIndex NO
7.32 08-21 FSAGX 22.31 SGold NO
7.17 09-10 FSUTX 96.20 SUtilities NO
6.92 10-01 FSAVX 34.66 SAutomotive NO
6.60 11-02 FEXPX 19.90 Export&Multinational YES
6.37 12-03 FHKCX 35.50 ChinaRegion YES
6.32 13-05 FLATX 26.99 LatinAmerica YES
6.29 14-02 FISVX 20.19 SmallCapValueIndex YES
6.22 15-35 FSPTX 17.73 STechnology YES
6.01 16-01 FDEGX 48.83 Growth Strategies YES
6.01 17-02 FSRPX 16.56 SRetailing NO
5.67 18-02 FPBFX 32.06 PacificBasin NO
5.44 19-01 FSRBX 26.54 SBanking NO
5.41 20-01 FGRIX 38.83 Growth&Income NO

It will be some time before I get all of the % returns correct.
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SSemiconductors(16Sep19) from SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19))
Sep19 1m-2 3m+1% 6m+1% 12m-8% 24m+na% 36m+na% 60m+na% 120m+na%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SAutomotive(FSAVX)(28Oct19) from Cash(16Sep19)
20% – SWireless(FWRLX)(21Oct19) from Cash(26Aug19)
20% – SConstructionandHousing(FSHOX)(16Sep19) from Cash(26Aug19)
20% – SSemiconductors(09Sep19) from Cash(19Aug19)
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
Sep19 1m-11% 3m+1% 6m+0% 12m-14% 24m+na% 36m+na% 60m+na% 120m+na%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%

A good week, a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 288, 349, and now 400 – up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 05, 26, and now 60.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 1% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 1% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 1% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ, and IWM are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
A time to buy – Sum of all deviations is up 2 weeks in a row.

Gary Kaltbaum has an 6pm radio show and on his Friday show indicates the growth stocks which led the market up until about 3 months ago are in a bear market. He also commented that it would be difficult for the remaining stocks to continue up without the growth stocks.

IRA#1
SSemiconductors has a price of 10.85, a sell price 10.31, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)

IRA#2
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 18.02 a sell price 17.78, a rank of 46, and is a hold for now. (ETF – ITA, XAR)
SSemiconductors has a price of 10.85, a sell price 10.55, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)
SConstructionandHousing has a price of 64.65, a sell price 61.42, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – ITB, PKB)
SWireless has a price of 10.70, a sell price TBD, a rank of 03, and is a Buy. (ETF – IYZ, XTL)

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – Invest 20% in SWireless

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
12.65 01-28 FSHOX 64.65 SConstructionandHousing NO
10.74 02-18 FSELX 10.85 SSemiconductors YES
10.20 03-10 FWRLX 10.70 SWireless YES
8.75 04-06 FRESX 47.44 RealEstateInvestment NO
7.91 05-10 FIUIX 29.09 Telecom&Utilities NO
7.78 06-07 FDCPX 77.01 SComputers NO
7.55 07-05 FSRNX 17.57 RealEstateIndex NO
7.32 08-21 FSAGX 22.31 SGold NO
7.17 09-10 FSUTX 96.20 SUtilities NO
6.92 10-01 FSAVX 34.66 SAutomotive NO
6.60 11-02 FEXPX 19.90 Export&Multinational YES
6.37 12-03 FHKCX 35.50 ChinaRegion YES
6.32 13-05 FLATX 26.99 LatinAmerica YES
6.29 14-02 FISVX 20.19 SmallCapValueIndex YES
6.22 15-35 FSPTX 17.73 STechnology YES
6.01 16-01 FDEGX 48.83 Growth Strategies YES
6.01 17-02 FSRPX 16.56 SRetailing NO
5.67 18-02 FPBFX 32.06 PacificBasin NO
5.44 19-01 FSRBX 26.54 SBanking NO
5.41 20-01 FGRIX 38.83 Growth&Income NO
Last Week
11.27 01-17 FSELX 10.84 SSemiconductors YES
11.08 02-27 FSHOX 63.33 SConstructionandHousing NO
9.45 03-09 FWRLX 10.57 SWireless YES
8.12 04-20 FSAGX 22.39 SGold NO
7.84 05-09 FIUIX 28.95 Telecom&Utilities NO
7.84 06-09 FSUTX 96.43 SUtilities NO
7.66 07-34 FSPTX 17.91 STechnology YES
7.64 08-05 FRESX 46.74 RealEstateInvestment NO
7.52 09-06 FDCPX 76.51 SComputers NO
6.81 10-02 FHKCX 35.53 ChinaRegion YES
6.75 11-04 FSRNX 17.37 RealEstateIndex NO
6.17 12-04 FNBGX 14.62 Long-TermTreasuryBondIndex NO
6.07 13-10 FSDAX 18.40 SDefense&Aerospace NO
5.69 14-03 FLATX 26.74 LatinAmerica YES
5.68 15-02 FRIFX 12.64 RealEstateIncome NO
5.13 16-01 FSRPX 16.37 SRetailing NO
5.06 17-01 FPBFX 31.78 PacificBasin NO
4.98 18-01 FEXPX 19.53 Export&Multinational YES
4.96 19-01 FISVX 19.87 SmallCapValueIndex YES
4.94 20-04 FCBFX 12.07 CorporateBond NO

It will be some time before I get all of the % returns correct.
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SSemiconductors(16Sep19) from SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19))
Sep19 1m-2 3m+1% 6m+1% 12m-8% 24m+na% 36m+na% 60m+na% 120m+na%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SWireless(FWRLX)(21Oct19) form Cash(26Aug19)
20% – SConstructionandHousing(FSHOX)(16Sep19) from Cash(26Aug19)
20% – Cash(16Sep19) from SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19))
20% – SSemiconductors(09Sep19) from Cash(19Aug19)
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
Sep19 1m-11% 3m+1% 6m+0% 12m-14% 24m+na% 36m+na% 60m+na% 120m+na%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%

A good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 347, 288, and now 349 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 05, 04, and now 26.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 1% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 2% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is -0% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY and QQQ are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.

Another way to get numbers comparable to my numbers. Go to Fidelity.com. Click on the investment products tab. Click on mutual Funds. Click on Pricing, Distributions, and Shareholder Information. Click on Daily pricing for all Fidelity Funds. Click on Short Term Performance. Click on 3 Month – to sort by last 3 month gain. Out of the top 20 funds on that list 10 of them also are on my best funds list for 04Oct. Most of those should be good investments. Just remember to record the purchase price and time when you buy them.

IRA#1
SSemiconductors has a price of 10.84, a sell price 10.30, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)

IRA#2
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 18.40 a sell price 17.78, a rank of 13, and is a hold. (ETF – ITA, XAR)
SSemiconductors has a price of 10.84, a sell price 10.55, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)
SConstructionandHousing has a price of 63.33, a sell price 60.16, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – ITB, PKB)

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
11.27 01-17 FSELX 10.84 SSemiconductors YES
11.08 02-27 FSHOX 63.33 SConstructionandHousing NO
9.45 03-09 FWRLX 10.57 SWireless YES
8.12 04-20 FSAGX 22.39 SGold NO
7.84 05-09 FIUIX 28.95 Telecom&Utilities NO
7.84 06-09 FSUTX 96.43 SUtilities NO
7.66 07-34 FSPTX 17.91 STechnology YES
7.64 08-05 FRESX 46.74 RealEstateInvestment NO
7.52 09-06 FDCPX 76.51 SComputers NO
6.81 10-02 FHKCX 35.53 ChinaRegion YES
6.75 11-04 FSRNX 17.37 RealEstateIndex NO
6.17 12-04 FNBGX 14.62 Long-TermTreasuryBondIndex NO
6.07 13-10 FSDAX 18.40 SDefense&Aerospace NO
5.69 14-03 FLATX 26.74 LatinAmerica YES
5.68 15-02 FRIFX 12.64 RealEstateIncome NO
5.13 16-01 FSRPX 16.37 SRetailing NO
5.06 17-01 FPBFX 31.78 PacificBasin NO
4.98 18-01 FEXPX 19.53 Export&Multinational YES
4.96 19-01 FISVX 19.87 SmallCapValueIndex YES
4.94 20-04 FCBFX 12.07 CorporateBond NO
Last Week
11.35 01-19 FSAGX 22.96 SGold NO
10.69 02-16 FSELX 10.72 SSemiconductors NO
10.60 03-03 FNBGX 15.18 Long-TermTreasuryBondIndex YES
10.25 04-26 FSHOX 62.49 SConstructionandHousing NO
9.67 05-08 FSUTX 97.67 SUtilities NO
8.87 06-04 FRESX 47.08 RealEstateInvestment YES
8.66 07-08 FIUIX 29.05 Telecom&Utilities NO
8.13 08-08 FWRLX 10.39 SWireless NO
7.56 09-03 FSRNX 17.44 RealEstateIndex NO
6.64 10-33 FSPTX 17.67 STechnology NO
6.52 11-03 FCBFX 12.22 CorporateBond NO
6.45 12-05 FDCPX 75.45 SComputers NO
6.08 13-01 FRIFX 12.65 RealEstateIncome NO
5.61 14-09 FSDAX 18.26 SDefense&Aerospace NO
5.28 15-04 FSPCX 63.81 SInsurance NO
5.09 16-02 FLATX 26.51 LatinAmerica YES
4.99 17-01 FGOVX 10.68 GovernmentIncome NO
4.91 18-01 FHKCX 34.77 ChinaRegion NO
4.14 19-01 FFIDX 47.15 Fidelity NO
4.13 20-01 FBSOX 71.47 SITServices NO

It will be some time before I get all of the % returns correct.
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SSemiconductors(16Sep19) from SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19))
Sep19 1m-2 3m+1% 6m+1% 12m-8% 24m+na% 36m+na% 60m+na% 120m+na%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SConstructionandHousing(FSHOX)(16Sep19) from Cash(26Aug19)
20% – Cash(16Sep19) from SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19))
20% – SSemiconductors(09Sep19) from Cash(19Aug19)
20% – Cash(26Aug10) from SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19)
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
Sep19 1m-11% 3m+1% 6m+0% 12m-14% 24m+na% 36m+na% 60m+na% 120m+na%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%

Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 497, 347, and now 399 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 67, 05, and now 04.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 1% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 0% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is -1% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY and QQQ are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.

Another rotten week where only defensive investments are moving up – utilities, bonds, and real estate. The same thing I said last week.
Gary Kaltbaum, who has a nightly radio/net/archived show at 6pm, claims without banks and semiconductors moving up, there is not a chance for a bull market. He indicates the up moves on Thursday and Friday was institutions buying when many stocks touched their 200 day moving average. PTNQ, Pacer Trendpilot 100 ETF, my favorite and only long term investment, automatically converts to treasury bills when the NASDAQ 100 falls below its 200 day moving average.

IRA#1
SSemiconductors has a price of 10.72, a sell price 10.26, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)

IRA#2
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 18.26 a sell price 17.78, a rank of 14, and is a hold. (ETF – ITA, XAR)
SSemiconductors has a price of 10.72, a sell price 10.55, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)
SConstructionandHousing has a price of 62.49, a sell price 59.54, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – ITB, PKB)

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
11.35 01-19 FSAGX 22.96 SGold NO
10.69 02-16 FSELX 10.72 SSemiconductors NO
10.60 03-03 FNBGX 15.18 Long-TermTreasuryBondIndex YES
10.25 04-26 FSHOX 62.49 SConstructionandHousing NO
9.67 05-08 FSUTX 97.67 SUtilities NO
8.87 06-04 FRESX 47.08 RealEstateInvestment YES
8.66 07-08 FIUIX 29.05 Telecom&Utilities NO
8.13 08-08 FWRLX 10.39 SWireless NO
7.56 09-03 FSRNX 17.44 RealEstateIndex NO
6.64 10-33 FSPTX 17.67 STechnology NO
6.52 11-03 FCBFX 12.22 CorporateBond NO
6.45 12-05 FDCPX 75.45 SComputers NO
6.08 13-01 FRIFX 12.65 RealEstateIncome NO
5.61 14-09 FSDAX 18.26 SDefense&Aerospace NO
5.28 15-04 FSPCX 63.81 SInsurance NO
5.09 16-02 FLATX 26.51 LatinAmerica YES
4.99 17-01 FGOVX 10.68 GovernmentIncome NO
4.91 18-01 FHKCX 34.77 ChinaRegion NO
4.14 19-01 FFIDX 47.15 Fidelity NO
4.13 20-01 FBSOX 71.47 SITServices NO
Last Week
11.17 01-25 FSHOX 62.67 SConstructionandHousing NO
10.85 02-18 FSAGX 22.72 SGold NO
10.49 03-15 FSELX 10.64 SSemiconductors NO
10.19 04-07 FSUTX 97.63 SUtilities YES
8.95 05-07 FIUIX 29.28 Telecom&Utilities NO
8.73 06-03 FRESX 46.80 RealEstateInvestment YES
8.72 07-02 FNBGX 14.84 Long-TermTreasuryBondIndex YES
7.81 08-02 FSRNX 17.41 RealEstateIndex YES
7.77 09-08 FSDAX 18.58 SDefense&Aerospace NO
7.13 10-03 FSPCX 64.75 SInsurance NO
6.53 11-04 FDCPX 75.25 SComputers NO
6.08 12-04 FSAVX 34.13 SAutomotive NO
6.01 13-02 FCBFX 12.12 CorporateBond NO
5.87 14-07 FWRLX 10.13 SWireless NO
5.38 15-32 FSPTX 17.40 STechnology NO
5.29 16-03 FIDSX 10.46 SFinancialServices NO
5.28 17-01 FSRBX 26.34 SBanking NO
5.25 18-03 FGRIX 38.51 Growth&Income NO
4.90 19-01 FLATX 26.39 LatinAmerica NO
4.38 20-01 FSRPX 16.18 SRetailing NO

It will be some time before I get all of the % returns correct.
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SSemiconductors(16Sep19) from SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19))
Jul19 1m+2 3m+0% 6m+2% 12m-3% 24m+na% 36m+na% 60m+na% 120m+na%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SConstructionandHousing(FSHOX)(16Sep19) from Cash(26Aug19)
20% – Cash(16Sep19) from SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19))
20% – SSemiconductors(09Sep19) from Cash(19Aug19)
20% – Cash(26Aug10) from SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19)
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
Jul19 1m+3% 3m+3% 6m-3% 12m-6% 24m+na% 36m+na% 60m+na% 120m+na%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%