Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 543, 497, and now 347 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 65, 07, and now 05.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 0% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is -1% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is -1% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY and QQQ are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.
It seems, based on the opinions of some dollar experts, that the Federal Reserve Board does not know what is going on. Big banks are holding on to government bonds instead of selling them and there is an international dollar shortage. The thinking is that when the FRB finally figures out there is a problem they will start quantitative easing 6.
Another rotten week where only defensive investments are moving up – utilities, bonds, and real estate.
IRA#1
SSemiconductors has a price of 10.64, a sell price 10.26, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)
IRA#2
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 18.58 a sell price 17.78, a rank of 09, and is a hold. (ETF – ITA, XAR)
SSemiconductors has a price of 10.64, a sell price 10.55, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)
SConstructionandHousing has a price of 62.67, a sell price 59.54, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – ITB, PKB)
My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
11.17 01-25 FSHOX 62.67 SConstructionandHousing NO
10.85 02-18 FSAGX 22.72 SGold NO
10.49 03-15 FSELX 10.64 SSemiconductors NO
10.19 04-07 FSUTX 97.63 SUtilities YES
8.95 05-07 FIUIX 29.28 Telecom&Utilities NO
8.73 06-03 FRESX 46.80 RealEstateInvestment YES
8.72 07-02 FNBGX 14.84 Long-TermTreasuryBondIndex YES
7.81 08-02 FSRNX 17.41 RealEstateIndex YES
7.77 09-08 FSDAX 18.58 SDefense&Aerospace NO
7.13 10-03 FSPCX 64.75 SInsurance NO
6.53 11-04 FDCPX 75.25 SComputers NO
6.08 12-04 FSAVX 34.13 SAutomotive NO
6.01 13-02 FCBFX 12.12 CorporateBond NO
5.87 14-07 FWRLX 10.13 SWireless NO
5.38 15-32 FSPTX 17.40 STechnology NO
5.29 16-03 FIDSX 10.46 SFinancialServices NO
5.28 17-01 FSRBX 26.34 SBanking NO
5.25 18-03 FGRIX 38.51 Growth&Income NO
4.90 19-01 FLATX 26.39 LatinAmerica NO
4.38 20-01 FSRPX 16.18 SRetailing NO
Last Week
01-17 15.46 FSAGX 23.53 SGold NO
02-14 12.77 FSELX 10.80 SSemiconductors NO
03-24 11.19 FSHOX 62.31 SConstructionandHousing NO
04-06 9.77 FSUTX 96.74 SUtilities YES
05-06 9.40 FIUIX 29.26 Telecom&Utilities YES
06-07 8.92 FSDAX 18.70 SDefense&Aerospace NO
07-01 8.56 FNBGX 14.75 Long-TermTreasuryBondIndex NO
08-04 7.92 FHKCX 35.61 ChinaRegion NO
09-03 7.88 FDCPX 75.94 SComputers NO
10-02 7.83 FRESX 46.20 RealEstateInvestment NO
11-06 7.77 FWRLX 10.28 SWireless NO
12-02 7.51 FSPCX 64.74 SInsurance NO
13-03 7.29 FSAVX 34.41 SAutomotive NO
14-02 7.25 FCPGX 25.72 SmallCapGrowth NO
15-31 6.96 FSPTX 17.61 STechnology NO
16-01 6.95 FSRNX 17.20 RealEstateIndex NO
17-02 6.81 FGRIX 38.97 Growth&Income NO
18-02 6.39 FIDSX 10.54 SFinancialServices NO
19-01 6.16 FCBFX 12.10 CorporateBond YES
20-01 5.98 FPHAX 21.53 SPharmaceuticals NO
It will be some time before I get all of the % returns correct.
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SSemiconductors(16Sep19) from SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19))
Jul19 1m+2 3m+0% 6m+2% 12m-3% 24m+na% 36m+na% 60m+na% 120m+na%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SConstructionandHousing(FSHOX)(16Sep19) from Cash(26Aug19)
20% – Cash(16Sep19) from SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19))
20% – SSemiconductors(09Sep19) from Cash(19Aug19)
20% – Cash(26Aug10) from SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19)
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
Jul19 1m+3% 3m+3% 6m-3% 12m-6% 24m+na% 36m+na% 60m+na% 120m+na%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%