Month: August 2019

NOT a good week, NOT a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 310, 206, and now 98 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 03, 03, and now 00.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is -3% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is -4% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is -5% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY and QQQ are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.

LatinAmerica which I sold on 8/19 I lost 2.74%. The two ETFs sold on 8/15 and 8/5 with stop loss orders, lost 4.42% and gained 0.32%. Not a good time to be invested in LatinAmerica. With all the problems with foreign economies doing poorly, tariff going on and off, strife in HongKong and the Middle East and everything else, this may just be a good time to be in a money market fund.
My favorite long term investment I purchased on 6/24, PTNQ, is down 3.47% since purchased which includes the 3.13% this week. In looking at the 200 day moving average it uses to determine when to start switching to treasury bonds, it could go down another 3.02% until it switches – based on today’s numbers. The 200 day moving averages is increasing about $0.07 per day so if the price never changes it will start switching 76 days.

IRA#1
SGold has a price of 24.26, a sell price 23.19, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – GDX, GLD)
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 71.84, a sell price 72.11, a rank of 05, and is a SELL. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 17.98 a sell price 17.36, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – ITA, XAR)
SGold has a price of 24.26, a sell price 23.19, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – GDX, GLD)
STechnology has a price of 16.96, a sell price 17.18, a rank of 10, and is a SELL. (ETF – PTF, IPAY)

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell SITServices, STechnology

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
21.91 01-13 FSAGX 24.26 SGold NO
13.24 02-04 FNBGX 15.17 Long-TermTreasuryBondIndex NO
7.44 03-20 FSHOX 58.96 SConstructionandHousing NO
6.45 04-03 FSDAX 17.98 SDefense&Aerospace NO
6.42 05-33 FBSOX 71.84 SITServices NO
6.29 06-04 FRESX 46.32 RealEstateInvestment NO
5.58 07-10 FSELX 9.86 SSemiconductors NO
5.25 08-02 FSUTX 91.39 SUtilities NO
4.95 09-08 FDLSX 16.18 SLeisure NO
4.46 10-27 FSPTX 16.96 STechnology NO
4.41 11-09 FDEGX 47.64 Growth Strategies NO
4.17 12-02 FIUIX 27.45 Telecom&Utilities NO
3.76 13-08 FDFFX 37.20 Independence NO
3.68 14-07 FSCSX 18.26 SSoftware&ITServices NO
3.44 15-02 FWRLX 9.73 SWireless NO
3.38 16-01 FIVFX 21.48 InternationalCapApp NO
3.19 17-15 FSPCX 61.34 SInsurance NO
3.18 18-07 FTRNX 104.47 Trend NO
3.04 19-02 FRIFX 12.36 RealEstateIncome NO
2.89 20-01 FTQGX 24.94 FocusedStock NO
Last Week
19.97 01-12 FSAGX 23.60 SGold NO
14.19 02-03 FNBGX 15.19 Long-TermTreasuryBondIndex YES
8.26 03-09 FSELX 10.08 SSemiconductors NO
7.84 04-32 FBSOX 72.55 SITServices NO
7.37 05-03 FRESX 46.64 RealEstateInvestment YES
6.28 06-02 FSDAX 17.89 SDefense&Aerospace NO
6.12 07-02 FSRNX 17.08 RealEstateIndex NO
6.06 08-26 FSPTX 17.18 STechnology NO
6.00 09-07 FDLSX 16.30 SLeisure NO
5.78 10-01 FSUTX 91.60 SUtilities NO
5.32 11-14 FSPCX 62.50 SInsurance NO
5.29 12-01 FRIFX 12.61 RealEstateIncome NO
5.09 13-07 FDFFX 37.60 Independence NO
5.04 14-01 FIUIX 27.62 Telecom&Utilities NO
4.82 15-06 FTRNX 105.95 Trend NO
4.80 16-19 FSHOX 57.29 SConstructionandHousing NO
4.79 17-06 FSCSX 18.42 SSoftware&ITServices NO
4.65 18-08 FDEGX 47.64 Growth Strategies NO
4.64 19-09 FLATX 26.05 LatinAmerica NO
4.37 20-01 FWRLX 9.80 SWireless NO
4.34 21 FIVFX 21.64 InternationalCapApp NO

It will be some time before I get all of the % returns correct.
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19) from Cash(13May19)
Jul19 1m+2 3m+0% 6m+2% 12m-3% 24m+na% 36m+na% 60m+na% 120m+na%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash (26Aug19) from STechnology(FSPTX)(14Jul19)
20% – Cash(26Aug10) from SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19)
20% – Cash(19Aug19) from LatinAmerica(FLATX(24Jun19)
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19) from Cash(13May19)
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
Jul19 1m+3% 3m+3% 6m-3% 12m-6% 24m+na% 36m+na% 60m+na% 120m+na%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%

NOT a good week, NOT a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 348, 310, and now 206 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 01, 03, and now 03.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is -2% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is -2% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is -3% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY and QQQ are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.

So last Saturday (10Aug) I was talking with a doctor at the local medical center. He told me I was going to stay there for a couple of days. I told him he was no longer my favorite doctor. He laughed, told me he could live with that, and he was going to get me a room for a couple of days. Thus, I was not home to do my weekly report. Both this week’s numbers and last week’s numbers are below.

I was talking with a lady last week who previously used a stop loss order to sell a stock when it dropped. Of course after she sold, it went up. I suggest she should look into PTNQ as an investment. Pacer Trendpilot 100 ETF uses the NASDAQ-100 index as an investment as long as it is above its 200 day moving average. If it declines below the 200 day moving average it starts switching to treasury bonds. Then when it increases above the 200 day moving averages, it invests in the NASDAQ-100 index again. paceretfs.com/products/trendpilot provides details about these 6 ETFs.

IRA#1
SGold has a price of 23.60, a sell price 23.19, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – GDX, GLD)
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 72.55, a sell price 72.11, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 17.89 a sell price 17.36, a rank of 06, and is a hold. (ETF – ITA, XAR)
SGold has a price of 23.60, a sell price 23.19, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – GDX, GLD)
LatinAmerica has a price of 26.05, a sell price 26.15, a rank of 19, and is a SELL. (ETF – EWZS, AGT)
STechnology has a price of 17.18, a sell price 17.18, a rank of 08, and is a hold but only by 0.02%. (ETF – PTF, IPAY)

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell LatinAmerica.
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
19.97 01-12 FSAGX 23.60 SGold NO
14.19 02-03 FNBGX 15.19 Long-TermTreasuryBondIndex YES
8.26 03-09 FSELX 10.08 SSemiconductors NO
7.84 04-32 FBSOX 72.55 SITServices NO
7.37 05-03 FRESX 46.64 RealEstateInvestment YES
6.28 06-02 FSDAX 17.89 SDefense&Aerospace NO
6.12 07-02 FSRNX 17.08 RealEstateIndex NO
6.06 08-26 FSPTX 17.18 STechnology NO
6.00 09-07 FDLSX 16.30 SLeisure NO
5.78 10-01 FSUTX 91.60 SUtilities NO
5.32 11-14 FSPCX 62.50 SInsurance NO
5.29 12-01 FRIFX 12.61 RealEstateIncome NO
5.09 13-07 FDFFX 37.60 Independence NO
5.04 14-01 FIUIX 27.62 Telecom&Utilities NO
4.82 15-06 FTRNX 105.95 Trend NO
4.80 16-19 FSHOX 57.29 SConstructionandHousing NO
4.79 17-06 FSCSX 18.42 SSoftware&ITServices NO
4.65 18-08 FDEGX 47.64 Growth Strategies NO
4.64 19-09 FLATX 26.05 LatinAmerica NO
4.37 20-01 FWRLX 9.80 SWireless NO
4.34 21 FIVFX 21.64 InternationalCapApp NO

Last Week
25.41 01-11 FSAGX 24.41 SGold NO
10.42 02-02 FNBGX 14.58 Long-TermTreasuryBondIndex YES
9.41 03-08 FLATX 27.17 LatinAmerica NO
8.67 04-31 FBSOX 72.81 SITServices NO
7.88 05-01 FSDAX 18.10 SDefense&Aerospace NO
7.76 06-08 FSELX 9.99 SSemiconductors NO
7.51 07-06 FDLSX 16.48 SLeisure NO
7.51 08-18 FSHOX 58.62 SConstructionandHousing NO
7.17 09-02 FRESX 46.37 RealEstateInvestment YES
7.04 10-13 FSPCX 63.34 SInsurance NO
6.91 11-08 FSVLX 17.20 SConsumerFinance NO
6.59 12-25 FSPTX 17.21 STechnology NO
6.27 13-02 FSHCX 91.70 SHealthCareServices NO
6.15 14-01 FSRNX 17.03 RealEstateIndex YES
6.07 15-06 FDFFX 37.85 Independence NO
6.05 16-02 FSPHX 25.08 SHealthCare NO
5.94 17-05 FTRNX 106.81 Trend NO
5.90 18-03 FSMEX 56.17 SMedicalEquipment&Systems NO
5.57 19-05 FSCSX 18.51 SSoftware&ITServices NO
5.44 20-07 FDEGX 47.88 Growth Strategies NO

It will be some time before I get all of the % returns correct.
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19) from Cash(13May19)
May19 1m-7% 3m-9% 6m-16% 12m-19% 24m+na% 36m+na% 60m+na% 120m+na%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(19Aug19) from LatinAmerica(FLATX(24Jun19)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX_(14Jul19) from Cash(20May19)
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19) from Cash(13May19)
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
May19 1m-6% 3m-4% 6m-4% 12m-8% 24m+na% 36m+na% 60m+na% 120m+na%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
ETFs
PTNQ May19 1m-8% 3m+1% 6m+1% 12m+1%
QQQ May19 1m-8% 3m-0% 6m+3% 12m+3%
TQQQ May19 1m-24% 3m-2% 6m-1% 12m-10%

NOT a good week, NOT a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 620, 714, and now 348 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 02, 13, and now 01.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is +0% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is +0% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is -0% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ and IWM are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.

The MACROVoices.com podcast/audio this week featured Mark Cudmore #178. The discussion was an evaluation of where the market is now and a not so wonderful outlook for the future.
MACROVoices.com also said on Sunday they were going to have a special audio/podcast featuring Peppa Malmgran and her father Harald. They have been advisors to 6 US presidents. Harald Malmgran was advising the department of defence during the Cuban missile crisis. I expect it to be a great educational discussion.

IRA#1
SGold has a price of 23.08, a sell price 22.25, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – GDX, GLD)
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 72.98, a sell price 72.11, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 17.48 a sell price 17.36, a rank of 30, and is a hold for now. (ETF – ITA, XAR)
SGold has a price of 23.08, a sell price 22.25, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – GDX, GLD)
LatinAmerica has a price of 26.56, a sell price 26.15, a rank of 06, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, AGT)
STechnology has a price of 17.27, a sell price 17.18, a rank of 08, and is a hold. (ETF – PTF, IPAY)

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
20.18 01-10 FSAGX 23.08 SGold NO
11.45 02-07 FSELX 10.29 SSemiconductors NO
9.43 03-30 FBSOX 72.98 SITServices NO
8.28 04-01 FNBGX 14.22 Long-TermTreasuryBondIndex YES
7.49 05-06 FSVLX 17.23 SConsumerFinance NO
7.48 06-07 FLATX 26.56 LatinAmerica NO
7.38 07-17 FSHOX 58.32 SConstructionandHousing NO
7.33 08-24 FSPTX 17.27 STechnology NO
6.96 09-05 FDLSX 16.33 SLeisure NO
6.57 10-12 FSPCX 62.83 SInsurance NO
6.16 11-23 FSCSX 18.56 SSoftware&ITServices NO
6.09 12-01 FRESX 45.73 RealEstateInvestment NO
6.06 13-01 FSHCX 91.21 SHealthCareServices NO
5.75 14-01 FSMEX 55.92 SMedicalEquipment&Systems NO
5.51 15-01 FSUTX 90.83 SUtilities NO
5.48 16-13 FTRNX 106.01 Trend NO
5.45 17-05 FDFFX 37.51 Independence NO
5.45 18-05 FTQGX 25.40 FocusedStock NO
5.38 19-05 FDEGX 47.72 Growth Strategies NO
5.33 20-01 FSPHX 24.83 SHealthCare NO
Last Week
20.42 01-09 FSAGX 22.88 SGold NO
18.77 02-06 FSELX 10.90 SSemiconductors YES
14.39 03-29 FBSOX 75.91 SITServices NO
12.80 04-23 FSPTX 18.08 STechnology NO
11.11 05-05 FSVLX 17.74 SConsumerFinance NO
11.04 06-22 FSCSX 19.35 SSoftware&ITServices NO
11.03 07-04 FDLSX 16.89 SLeisure NO
10.47 08-06 FLATX 27.19 LatinAmerica NO
10.46 09-11 FSPCX 64.90 SInsurance NO
10.17 10-06 FHKCX 35.58 ChinaRegion YES
10.00 11-12 FTRNX 110.24 Trend NO
9.74 12-04 FDEGX 49.55 Growth Strategies NO
9.61 13-06 FSDAX 18.27 SDefense&Aerospace NO
9.56 14-16 FSHOX 59.27 SConstructionandHousing NO
9.32 15-01 FSAIX 78.67 SAirTransportation NO
9.25 16-04 FTQGX 26.24 FocusedStock NO
9.05 17-04 FDFFX 38.68 Independence NO
8.82 18-01 FOCPX 12.69 OTCPortfolio YES
8.72 19-01 FNCMX 108.69 NasdaqCompositeIndex YES
8.56 20-03 FSAVX 34.11 SAutomotive NO

It will be some time before I get all of the % returns correct.
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19) from Cash(13May19)
May19 1m-7% 3m-9% 6m-16% 12m-19% 24m+na% 36m+na% 60m+na% 120m+na%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – STechnology(FSPTX_(14Jul19) from Cash(20May19)
20% – LatinAmerica(FLATX(24Jun19) from Cash(13May19)
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19) from Cash(13May19)
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
May19 1m-6% 3m-4% 6m-4% 12m-8% 24m+na% 36m+na% 60m+na% 120m+na%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
ETFs
PTNQ May19 1m-8% 3m+1% 6m+1% 12m+1%
QQQ May19 1m-8% 3m-0% 6m+3% 12m+3%
TQQQ May19 1m-24% 3m-2% 6m-1% 12m-10%