Month: May 2019

Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 492, 381, and now 263 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 01, 03, and now 06.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 1% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 3% below its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 3% below its 50 day moving average,
SPY, and QQQ are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.

Jesse Felder produces a very interesting report. He sends out an email weekly. This weeks report can be read at https://thefelderreport.com/2019/05/22/another-breadth-warning-for-stocks/

Having sold all my ETFs I am 98% in cash. In addition to the 2 remaining mutual funds I own, I made a small investment in an ETF – GBTC – Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – not an investment I would recommend. Back in the fall of 2017 I had a return of 10% on two small investments I held for a couple of weeks. GBTC is up 130% over the last 3 months and down 12% over the last 12 months. It is up 13% since I purchased it 2 weeks ago.

IRA#1
No Investments
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 68.89, a sell price 66.17, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 16.78, a sell price 16.42, a rank of 14, and is a hold. (ETF – ITA, XAR)

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
9.98 01-20 FBSOX 68.89 SITServices No
7.82 02-03 FSPCX 60.98 SInsurance No
7.45 03-19 FSVLX 16.53 SConsumerFinance No
7.18 04-13 FSCSX 17.84 SSoftware&ITServices No
7.00 05-02 FRESX 45.23 RealEstateInvestment No
6.13 06-02 FSRNX 16.77 RealEstateIndex No
5.95 07-01 FSUTX 89.49 SUtilities Yes
5.50 08-01 FIREX 12.24 InternationalRealEstate Yes
5.48 09-01 FIUIX 27.25 TelecomandUtilities Yes
5.28 10-02 FIVFX 20.92 InternationalCapApp No
5.24 11-12 FBMPX 60.64 SCommunicationServices No
5.19 12-14 FSPTX 16.10 STechnology No
5.05 13-03 FTRNX 101.18 Trend No
5.01 14-07 FSHOX 55.19 SConstructionandHousing No
4.91 15-01 FNBGX 13.32 Long-TermTreasuryBondIndex Yes
4.82 16-11 FTQGX 24.23 FocusedStock No
4.62 17-01 FSDAX 16.78 SDefense&Aerospace No
4.55 18-01 FSLCX 16.58 SmallCapStock No
4.53 19-01 FRIFX 12.33 RealEstateIncome Yes
4.28 20-01 FDFFX 35.79 Independence No
Last Week
10.90 01-19 FBSOX 69.10 SITServices NO
8.97 02-12 FSCSX 18.07 SSoftware&ITServices NO
8.55 03-13 FSPTX 16.57 STechnology NO
8.00 04-18 FSVLX 16.55 SConsumerFinance NO
7.95 05-11 FBMPX 62.03 SCommunicationServices NO
7.82 06-02 FSPCX 60.73 SInsurance NO
7.48 07-06 FSHOX 56.34 SConstructionandHousing NO
7.04 08-01 FRESX 45.08 RealEstateInvestment NO
6.58 09-11 FOCPX 11.91 OTCPortfolio NO
6.49 10-05 FDLSX 15.33 SLeisure NO
6.48 11-10 FTQGX 24.55 FocusedStock NO
6.34 12-01 FSRNX 16.75 RealEstateIndex NO
6.20 13-06 FSCPX 45.94 SConsumerDiscretionary NO
6.17 14-02 FTRNX 101.98 Trend NO
5.78 15-01 FIVFX 20.96 InternationalCapApp NO
5.68 16-04 FDSVX 36.62 Growth Discovery NO
5.67 17-04 FSPGX 15.31 LargeCapGrowthIndex NO
5.59 18-03 FCYIX 34.35 SIndustrials NO
5.47 19-01 FSLSX 36.32 ValueStrategies NO
5.39 20-01 FCNTX 12.75 Contrafund NO

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(13May19) from ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19)
Mar19 1m-1% 3m-4% 6m-14% 12m-9% 24m+9% 36m+39% 60m+23% 120m+12%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(20May19) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(15Apr19)
20% – Cash(13May19) from ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19)
20% – Cash(22Apr19) from SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19)
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
Mar19 1m-0% 3m+2% 6m-9% 12m-4% 24m+3% 36m+21% 60m+17% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

ETFs
PTNQ Mar19 1m+4% 3m+4% 6m-5% 12m+10%
QQQ Mar19 1m+4% 3m+16% 6m-3% 12m+13%
TQQQ Mar19 1m+11% 3m+53% 6m-20% 12m+18%

Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 738, 492, and now 381 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 30, 01, and now 03.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is -0% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is -0% below its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is -1% below its 50 day moving average,
SPY, and QQQ are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.

What a rotten week. On Monday, all my stop losses were hit and all ETFs were sold. Thanks to the recovery after Monday, that sure looks like a bad idea. It may be or it may not be. That all depends market results over the next couple of weeks.
One of the ETFs I sold was QQQ. If I had invested in PTNQ – the Nasdaq 100 ETFs which switches when QQQ falls below its 200 day average – I would still be invested. Perhaps my 50 day moving average stop loss is too close the the price.
All in all it is a time to wait and see which way the market decides to go so I am buying nothing.

IRA#1
No Investments.
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 69.10, a sell price 66.17, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 16.86, a sell price 16.42, a rank of 21, and is a hold for now. (ETF – ITA, XAR)
SSemiconductors has a price of 9.62, a sell price 10.28, a rank of 79, and is a sell. (ETF – FTXL, XSD)

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – Sell SSemiconductors

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
10.90 01-19 FBSOX 69.10 SITServices NO
8.97 02-12 FSCSX 18.07 SSoftware&ITServices NO
8.55 03-13 FSPTX 16.57 STechnology NO
8.00 04-18 FSVLX 16.55 SConsumerFinance NO
7.95 05-11 FBMPX 62.03 SCommunicationServices NO
7.82 06-02 FSPCX 60.73 SInsurance NO
7.48 07-06 FSHOX 56.34 SConstructionandHousing NO
7.04 08-01 FRESX 45.08 RealEstateInvestment NO
6.58 09-11 FOCPX 11.91 OTCPortfolio NO
6.49 10-05 FDLSX 15.33 SLeisure NO
6.48 11-10 FTQGX 24.55 FocusedStock NO
6.34 12-01 FSRNX 16.75 RealEstateIndex NO
6.20 13-06 FSCPX 45.94 SConsumerDiscretionary NO
6.17 14-02 FTRNX 101.98 Trend NO
5.78 15-01 FIVFX 20.96 InternationalCapApp NO
5.68 16-04 FDSVX 36.62 Growth Discovery NO
5.67 17-04 FSPGX 15.31 LargeCapGrowthIndex NO
5.59 18-03 FCYIX 34.35 SIndustrials NO
5.47 19-01 FSLSX 36.32 ValueStrategies NO
5.39 20-01 FCNTX 12.75 Contrafund NO
Last Week
10.70 01-18 FBSOX 68.58 SITServices NO
9.97 02-12 FSPTX 16.71 STechnology NO
9.63 03-17 FSVLX 16.73 SConsumerFinance NO
9.00 04-11 FSCSX 17.99 SSoftware&ITServices NO
8.61 05-10 FBMPX 62.15 SCommunicationServices NO
8.47 06-01 FSPCX 60.84 SInsurance NO
8.38 07-10 FOCPX 12.07 OTCPortfolio NO
8.02 08-05 FSHOX 56.40 SConstructionandHousing NO
7.70 09-06 FSELX 10.13 SSemiconductors NO
7.70 10-05 FSCPX 46.44 SConsumerDiscretionary NO
7.70 11-04 FDLSX 15.45 SLeisure NO
7.16 12-02 FCYIX 34.76 SIndustrials NO
7.10 13-09 FTQGX 24.61 FocusedStock NO
6.84 14-01 FTRNX 102.29 Trend NO
6.75 15-03 FSPGX 15.42 LargeCapGrowthIndex NO
6.66 16-03 FDSVX 36.85 Growth Discovery NO
6.65 17-05 FSRPX 15.68 SRetailing NO
6.59 18-01 FSLBX 73.32 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement NO
6.55 19-01 FSDAX 17.00 SDefense&Aerospace NO
6.48 20-01 FDEGX 45.33 Growth Strategies NO

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(13May19) from ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19)
Mar19 1m-1% 3m-4% 6m-14% 12m-9% 24m+9% 36m+39% 60m+23% 120m+12%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(20May19) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(15Apr19)
20% – Cash(13May19) from ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19)
20% – Cash(22Apr19) from SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19)
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
Mar19 1m-0% 3m+2% 6m-9% 12m-4% 24m+3% 36m+21% 60m+17% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

ETFs
PTNQ Mar19 1m+4% 3m+4% 6m-5% 12m+10%
QQQ Mar19 1m+4% 3m+16% 6m-3% 12m+13%
TQQQ Mar19 1m+11% 3m+53% 6m-20% 12m+18%

Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 732, 738, and now 492 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 14, 30, and now 1.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 1% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 1% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 1% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ, and IWM are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.

Nothing to add this week. It was a rotten week. If it continues time for FED money printing (QE).

IRA#1
ChinaRegion has a price of 34.52, a sell price 34.61, a rank of 33, and is a sell. (ETF – CNXT, ASHS)
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 68.58, a sell price 66.17, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 17.00, a sell price 16.42, a rank of 19, and is a hold. (ETF – ITA, XAR)
ChinaRegion has a price of 34.52, a sell price 34.31, a rank of 33, and is a sell. (ETF – CNXT, ASHS)
SSemiconductors has a price of 10.13, a sell price 10.28, a rank of 09, and is a Hold. (ETF – FTXL, XSD)
SSemiconductors is a hold but only because Fidelity requires you to hold a fund for 30 day and I have not owned it for 30 days until Wednesday. Perhaps this week will be an up week for it and it will not be a sell next week.

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Sell ChinaRegion
IRA #2 – Sell ChinaRegion

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
10.70 01-18 FBSOX 68.58 SITServices NO
9.97 02-12 FSPTX 16.71 STechnology NO
9.63 03-17 FSVLX 16.73 SConsumerFinance NO
9.00 04-11 FSCSX 17.99 SSoftware&ITServices NO
8.61 05-10 FBMPX 62.15 SCommunicationServices NO
8.47 06-01 FSPCX 60.84 SInsurance NO
8.38 07-10 FOCPX 12.07 OTCPortfolio NO
8.02 08-05 FSHOX 56.40 SConstructionandHousing NO
7.70 09-06 FSELX 10.13 SSemiconductors NO
7.70 10-05 FSCPX 46.44 SConsumerDiscretionary NO
7.70 11-04 FDLSX 15.45 SLeisure NO
7.16 12-02 FCYIX 34.76 SIndustrials NO
7.10 13-09 FTQGX 24.61 FocusedStock NO
6.84 14-01 FTRNX 102.29 Trend NO
6.75 15-03 FSPGX 15.42 LargeCapGrowthIndex NO
6.66 16-03 FDSVX 36.85 Growth Discovery NO
6.65 17-05 FSRPX 15.68 SRetailing NO
6.59 18-01 FSLBX 73.32 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement NO
6.55 19-01 FSDAX 17.00 SDefense&Aerospace NO
6.48 20-01 FDEGX 45.33 Growth Strategies NO
Last Week
15.51 01-05 FSELX 10.82 SSemiconductors
14.25 02-11 FSPTX 17.27 STechnology
12.56 03-17 FBSOX 69.34 SITServices
12.47 04-09 FOCPX 12.47 OTCPortfolio
12.00 05-14 FHKCX 36.43 ChinaRegion
11.51 06-06 FSVLX 16.93 SConsumerFinance
11.35 07-10 FSCSX 18.29 SSoftware&ITServices
11.07 08-04 FSCPX 47.70 SConsumerDiscretionary
11.00 09-10 FSEAX 44.61 EmergingAsia
10.96 10-09 FBMPX 63.21 SCommunicationServices
10.74 11-04 FSHOX 57.58 SConstructionandHousing
10.64 12-04 FSRPX 16.21 SRetailing
10.47 13-01 FDCPX 76.29 SComputers
10.41 14-01 FCYIX 35.68 SIndustrials
10.04 15-08 FTQGX 25.19 FocusedStock
9.96 16-02 FNCMX 106.34 NasdaqCompositeIndex
9.78 17-02 FBGRX 103.14 BlueChipGrowth
9.77 18-02 FSPGX 15.80 LargeCapGrowthIndex
9.67 19-03 FDLSX 15.67 SLeisure
9.50 20-02 FDSVX 37.70 Growth Discovery

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(13May19) from ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19)
Mar19 1m-1% 3m-4% 6m-14% 12m-9% 24m+9% 36m+39% 60m+23% 120m+12%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(13May19) from ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19)
20% – Cash(22Apr19) from SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(15Apr19) from Cash(11Mar19)
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
Mar19 1m-0% 3m+2% 6m-9% 12m-4% 24m+3% 36m+21% 60m+17% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

ETFs
PTNQ Mar19 1m+4% 3m+4% 6m-5% 12m+10%
QQQ Mar19 1m+4% 3m+16% 6m-3% 12m+13%
TQQQ Mar19 1m+11% 3m+53% 6m-20% 12m+18%

A week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 669, 732, and now 738 – up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 17, 14, and now 30.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 5% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ, and IWM are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy – it seems none of my top 20 fund deviations have been up two weeks in a row. In fact only 7 of my top 20 fund deviations are up for one week. I do not remember a time when the sum of the deviations has been up 2 weeks in a row and none of the top 20 is up. The top funds are just not moving up as fast as they have in the past

Fidelity seems to have its web site properly undated today. While I doubt it maybe my weekly calls got to someone who cares about the data they publish.
Macrovoices podcast on 02May19 featured Juliette Declercq. She discusses the Fed’s failures and suggests a interest rate cut in September. She also points out the FED change in January and China rate cuts helped stocks continue up. She suggests the FED will continue to cut rates, kill savings return, and pushing assets higher.

ChinaRegion has a price of 36.43, a sell price 34.61, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – CNXT, ASHS)
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 69.34, a sell price 66.17, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 17.12, a sell price 16.42, a rank of 44, and is a hold for now. (ETF – ITA, XAR)
ChinaRegion has a price of 36.43, a sell price 34.31, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – CNXT, ASHS)
SSemiconductors has a price of 10.82, a sell price 10.28, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – FTXL, XSD)

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
15.51 01-05 FSELX 10.82 SSemiconductors
14.25 02-11 FSPTX 17.27 STechnology
12.56 03-17 FBSOX 69.34 SITServices
12.47 04-09 FOCPX 12.47 OTCPortfolio
12.00 05-14 FHKCX 36.43 ChinaRegion
11.51 06-06 FSVLX 16.93 SConsumerFinance
11.35 07-10 FSCSX 18.29 SSoftware&ITServices
11.07 08-04 FSCPX 47.70 SConsumerDiscretionary
11.00 09-10 FSEAX 44.61 EmergingAsia
10.96 10-09 FBMPX 63.21 SCommunicationServices
10.74 11-04 FSHOX 57.58 SConstructionandHousing
10.64 12-04 FSRPX 16.21 SRetailing
10.47 13-01 FDCPX 76.29 SComputers
10.41 14-01 FCYIX 35.68 SIndustrials
10.04 15-08 FTQGX 25.19 FocusedStock
9.96 16-02 FNCMX 106.34 NasdaqCompositeIndex
9.78 17-02 FBGRX 103.14 BlueChipGrowth
9.77 18-02 FSPGX 15.80 LargeCapGrowthIndex
9.67 19-03 FDLSX 15.67 SLeisure
9.50 20-02 FDSVX 37.70 Growth Discovery
Last Week
14.74 01-04 FSELX 10.66 SSemiconductors
14.71 02-10 FSPTX 17.21 STechnology Yes
13.81 03-16 FBSOX 69.65 SITServices
13.00 04-08 FBMPX 64.00 SCommunicationServices
12.85 05-08 FOCPX 12.43 OTCPortfolio
12.69 06-09 FSCSX 18.40 SSoftware&ITServices
12.12 07-05 FSVLX 16.92 SConsumerFinance
11.74 08-03 FSRPX 16.28 SRetailing Yes
11.66 09-03 FSCPX 47.67 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
10.71 10-07 FTQGX 25.21 FocusedStock
10.64 11-13 FHKCX 35.76 ChinaRegion
10.34 12-01 FSPGX 15.80 LargeCapGrowthIndex
10.19 13-01 FBGRX 102.99 BlueChipGrowth
10.11 14-01 FDSVX 37.72 Growth Discovery
10.10 15-01 FNCMX 105.92 NasdaqCompositeIndex
10.08 16-03 FSHOX 56.91 SConstructionandHousing
9.88 17-02 FDLSX 15.62 SLeisure
9.80 18-09 FSEAX 43.87 EmergingAsia
9.80 19-01 FTRNX 104.23 Trend
9.66 20-01 FCNTX 13.12 Contrafund

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19) from Cash(11Mar19)
Mar19 1m-1% 3m-4% 6m-14% 12m-9% 24m+9% 36m+39% 60m+23% 120m+12%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(22Apr19) from SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(15Apr19) from Cash(11Mar19)
20% – ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19) from Cash(11Mar19)
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
Mar19 1m-0% 3m+2% 6m-9% 12m-4% 24m+3% 36m+21% 60m+17% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

ETFs
PTNQ Mar19 1m+4% 3m+4% 6m-5% 12m+10%
QQQ Mar19 1m+4% 3m+16% 6m-3% 12m+13%
TQQQ Mar19 1m+11% 3m+53% 6m-20% 12m+18%