Month: April 2019

Not a bad week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations
has been 730, 669, and now 732 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has
been 53, 17, and now 14.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 6% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 2% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ, and IWM are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy.

This year I hope to find an ETF analysis which I can use to
replace my Fidelity fund analysis. Fidelity just continues to
fail in keeping their data current. Fidelity on its website 
providing distribution says “Below are the most recently
reported distributions for Fidelity funds.” In talking with
Fidelity on 4/26, the representative does not know why the
4/12 and 4/19 distributions are not listed. And yes I did also
call on those dates. On the same site is a tab called
Estimated Capital Gains. The date reflects the February
estimates which are lower than actual capital gain
distribution in March and April. It is an estimate – obviously
not even a close guess but I think they should be able to
correctly report the past.

IRA#1
ChinaRegion has a price of 35.76, a sell price 34.49, a rank
of 11, and is a hold. (ETF – CNXT, ASHS)
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 69.65, a sell price 66.17, a rank
of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 17.12, a sell price 16.42, a
rank of 35, and is a hold for now. (ETF – ITA, XAR)
ChinaRegion has a price of 35.76, a sell price 34.49, a rank
of 11, and is a hold. (ETF – CNXT, ASHS)
SSemiconductors has a price of 10.66, a sell price 10.24, a
rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – FTXL, XSD)

My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s
changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent
deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund
price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
14.74 01-04 FSELX 10.66 SSemiconductors
14.71 02-10 FSPTX 17.21 STechnology Yes
13.81 03-16 FBSOX 69.65 SITServices
13.00 04-08 FBMPX 64.00 SCommunicationServices
12.85 05-08 FOCPX 12.43 OTCPortfolio
12.69 06-09 FSCSX 18.40 SSoftware&ITServices
12.12 07-05 FSVLX 16.92 SConsumerFinance
11.74 08-03 FSRPX 16.28 SRetailing Yes
11.66 09-03 FSCPX 47.67 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
10.71 10-07 FTQGX 25.21 FocusedStock
10.64 11-13 FHKCX 35.76 ChinaRegion
10.34 12-01 FSPGX 15.80 LargeCapGrowthIndex
10.19 13-01 FBGRX 102.99 BlueChipGrowth
10.11 14-01 FDSVX 37.72 Growth Discovery
10.10 15-01 FNCMX 105.92 NasdaqCompositeIndex
10.08 16-03 FSHOX 56.91 SConstructionandHousing
9.88 17-02 FDLSX 15.62 SLeisure
9.80 18-09 FSEAX 43.87 EmergingAsia
9.80 19-01 FTRNX 104.23 Trend
9.66 20-01 FCNTX 13.12 Contrafund
Last Week
16.93 01-03 FSELX 10.78 SSemiconductors Yes
13.59 02-09 FSPTX 16.91 STechnology Yes
12.94 03-12 FHKCX 36.30 ChinaRegion
12.44 04-15 FBSOX 68.31 SITServices
12.10 05-08 FSEAX 44.56 EmergingAsia Yes
11.19 06-02 FSRPX 16.10 SRetailing Yes
10.97 07-07 FOCPX 12.14 OTCPortfolio
10.91 08-02 FSCPX 47.06 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
10.63 09-02 FSHOX 56.89 SConstructionandHousing
10.59 10-01 FDCPX 75.57 SComputers Yes
10.38 11-02 FSELX 25.92 SEnvironment&AlternativeEnergy
Yes
10.31 12-07 FBMPX 62.05 SCommunicationServices
10.15 13-10 FSDCX 42.18 SCommunicationsEquipment
10.06 14-08 FSCSX 17.85 SSoftware&ITServices
9.94 15-01 FIGFX 14.40 InternationalGrowth Yes
9.91 16-04 FSVLX 16.48 SConsumerFinance
9.25 17-01 FCYIX 34.94 SIndustrials
9.22 18-02 FSNGX 22.00 SNaturalGas
9.04 19-01 FDLSX 15.42 SLeisure
8.95 20-06 FTQGX 24.67 FocusedStock

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19) from Cash(11Mar19)
Mar19 1m-1% 3m-4% 6m-14% 12m-9% 24m+9% 36m+39% 60m+23% 120m+12%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(22Apr19) from SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(15Apr19) from Cash(11Mar19)
20% – ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19) from Cash(11Mar19)
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
Mar19 1m-0% 3m+2% 6m-9% 12m-4% 24m+3% 36m+21% 60m+17% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

ETFs
PTNQ Mar19 1m+4%   3m+4%    6m-5%   12m+10%
QQQ   Mar19 1m+4%   3m+16%  6m-3%   12m+13%
TQQQ Mar19 1m+11% 3m+53% 6m-20% 12m+18%

Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 707, 730, and now 669 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 80, 53, and now 17.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 6% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 1% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY, and QQQ are above their 200 day moving averages. IWM is not.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy.

Ken Fisher, a billionaire investor, was on the Neil Cavuto show on 17Apr.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4Brk4uJqR0
He thinks we will have a continuing bull market. In talking about a melt up, which some are suggesting, Fisher quoted Sir John Templeton “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”
He says we are clearly not euphoric yet.

IRA#1
ChinaRegion has a price of 36.30, a sell price 34.49, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – CNXT, ASHS)
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 68.31, a sell price 65.13, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SGold has a price of 18.27, a sell price 18.27, a rank of 97, and is a SELL. (ETF – GDX, GDXJ)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 17.00, a sell price 16.42, a rank of 33, and is a for now. (ETF – ITA, XAR)
ChinaRegion has a price of 36.30, a sell price 34.49, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – CNXT, ASHS)
SSemiconductors has a price of 10.78, a sell price 10.24, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – FTXL, XSD)

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell SGold

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund
symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
16.93 01-03 FSELX 10.78 SSemiconductors Yes
13.59 02-09 FSPTX 16.91 STechnology Yes
12.94 03-12 FHKCX 36.30 ChinaRegion
12.44 04-15 FBSOX 68.31 SITServices
12.10 05-08 FSEAX 44.56 EmergingAsia Yes
11.19 06-02 FSRPX 16.10 SRetailing Yes
10.97 07-07 FOCPX 12.14 OTCPortfolio
10.91 08-02 FSCPX 47.06 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
10.63 09-02 FSHOX 56.89 SConstructionandHousing
10.59 10-01 FDCPX 75.57 SComputers Yes
10.38 11-02 FSELX 25.92 SEnvironment&AlternativeEnergy Yes
10.31 12-07 FBMPX 62.05 SCommunicationServices
10.15 13-10 FSDCX 42.18 SCommunicationsEquipment
10.06 14-08 FSCSX 17.85 SSoftware&ITServices
9.94 15-01 FIGFX 14.40 InternationalGrowth Yes
9.91 16-04 FSVLX 16.48 SConsumerFinance
9.25 17-01 FCYIX 34.94 SIndustrials
9.22 18-02 FSNGX 22.00 SNaturalGas
9.04 19-01 FDLSX 15.42 SLeisure
8.95 20-06 FTQGX 24.67 FocusedStock
Last Week
13.54 01-14 FBSOX 68.56 SITServices
13.53 02-02 FSELX 10.37 SSemiconductors Yes
13.49 03-11 FHKCX 36.23 ChinaRegion
13.13 04-08 FSPTX 16.72 STechnology Yes
12.39 05-09 FSDCX 42.20 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
11.91 06-07 FSEAX 44.20 EmergingAsia Yes
11.40 07-01 FSHOX 56.97 SConstructionandHousing
10.97 08-06 FOCPX 12.07 OTCPortfolio
10.88 09-01 FSRPX 15.96 SRetailing Yes
10.88 10-06 FBMPX 62.12 SCommunicationServices Yes
10.85 11-01 FSNGX 22.22 SNaturalGas Yes
10.70 12-07 FSCSX 17.87 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
10.43 13-01 FSCPX 46.59 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
10.22 14-03 FSVLX 16.44 SConsumerFinance Yes
9.96 15-01 FSELX 25.68 SEnvironment&AlternativeEnergy
9.65 16-05 FTQGX 24.71 FocusedStock
9.58 17-03 FSLSX 36.99 ValueStrategies Yes
9.53 18-05 FDSVX 37.15 Growth Discovery Yes
9.49 19-04 FSPGX 15.52 LargeCapGrowthIndex Yes
9.27 20-02 FSAIX 76.29 SAirTransportation Yes

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19) from Cash(11Mar19)
Feb19 1m-4% 3m-8% 6m-13% 12m-8% 24m+3% 36m+41% 60m+19% 120m+8%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(22Apr19) from SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(15Apr19) from Cash(11Mar19)
20% – ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19) from Cash(11Mar19)
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
Feb19 1m+1% 3m+0% 6m-7% 12m-4% 24m+2% 36m+24% 60m+12% 120m+37%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%

ETFs
PTNQ Feb19 1m+0% 3m+1% 6m-9% 12m+2%
QQQ Feb19 1m+3% 3m+3% 6m-7% 12m+4%

A good week, a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 520, 707, and now 730 – up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 11, 80, and now 53.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 5% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 2% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ, and IWM are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Time to buy.

It was a good week, time to buy.

I’ve not had enough time to even follow the market this week. Tax time is super busy.

IRA#1
ChinaRegion has a price of 36.23, a sell price 34.42, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – CNXT, ASHS)
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 68.56, a sell price 65.13, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SGold has a price of 19.01, a sell price 18.72, a rank of 75, and is a hold for now. (ETF – GDX, GDXJ)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 16.98, a sell price 16.42, a rank of 38, and is a for now. (ETF – ITA, XAR)
ChinaRegion has a price of 36.23, a sell price 34.42, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – CNXT, ASHS)
SSemiconductors has a price of 16.98, a sell price TBD, a rank of 02, and is a BUY. (ETF – FTXL, XSD)

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Buy SSemiconductors

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
13.54 01-14 FBSOX 68.56 SITServices
13.53 02-02 FSELX 10.37 SSemiconductors Yes
13.49 03-11 FHKCX 36.23 ChinaRegion
13.13 04-08 FSPTX 16.72 STechnology Yes
12.39 05-09 FSDCX 42.20 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
11.91 06-07 FSEAX 44.20 EmergingAsia Yes
11.40 07-01 FSHOX 56.97 SConstructionandHousing
10.97 08-06 FOCPX 12.07 OTCPortfolio
10.88 09-01 FSRPX 15.96 SRetailing Yes
10.88 10-06 FBMPX 62.12 SCommunicationServices Yes
10.85 11-01 FSNGX 22.22 SNaturalGas Yes
10.70 12-07 FSCSX 17.87 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
10.43 13-01 FSCPX 46.59 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
10.22 14-03 FSVLX 16.44 SConsumerFinance Yes
9.96 15-01 FSELX 25.68 SEnvironment&AlternativeEnergy
9.65 16-05 FTQGX 24.71 FocusedStock
9.58 17-03 FSLSX 36.99 ValueStrategies Yes
9.53 18-05 FDSVX 37.15 Growth Discovery Yes
9.49 19-04 FSPGX 15.52 LargeCapGrowthIndex Yes
9.27 20-02 FSAIX 76.29 SAirTransportation Yes
Last Week
14.59 01-10 FHKCX 36.32 ChinaRegion Yes
13.79 02-13 FBSOX 68.56 SITServices Yes
12.69 03-07 FSPTX 16.54 STechnology Yes
12.46 04-01 FSELX 10.21 SSemiconductors
11.90 05-06 FSEAX 43.92 EmergingAsia Yes
11.06 06-05 FOCPX 12.01 OTCPortfolio Yes
10.50 07-08 FSDCX 41.85 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
9.95 08-06 FSCSX 19.53 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
9.67 09-04 FTQGX 24.59 FocusedStock Yes
9.66 10-05 FBMPX 79.63 SCommunicationServices
9.60 11-02 FSVLX 16.26 SConsumerFinance Yes
9.40 12-03 FSPGX 15.43 LargeCapGrowthIndex Yes
9.30 13-05 FRESX 45.01 RealEstateInvestment
9.27 14-02 FCYIX 34.61 SIndustrials Yes
9.24 15-01 FSAIX 76.64 SAirTransportation Yes
9.19 16-04 FDSVX 36.85 Growth Discovery Yes
8.88 17-01 FNCMX 103.22 NasdaqCompositeIndex Yes
8.87 18-01 FBGRX 100.28 BlueChipGrowth Yes
8.83 19-02 FSLSX 36.55 ValueStrategies Yes
8.83 20-03 FTRNX 101.90 Trend Yes

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19) from Cash(11Mar19)
Feb19 1m-4% 3m-8% 6m-13% 12m-8% 24m+3% 36m+41% 60m+19% 120m+8%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(15Apr19) from Cash(11Mar19)
20% – ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19) from Cash(11Mar19)
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
Feb19 1m+1% 3m+0% 6m-7% 12m-4% 24m+2% 36m+24% 60m+12% 120m+37%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%

ETFs
PTNQ Feb19 1m+0% 3m+1% 6m-9% 12m+2%
QQQ Feb19 1m+3% 3m+3% 6m-7% 12m+4%

A good week, a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 418, 520, and now 696 – up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 13, 11, and now 80.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 6% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ, and IWM are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Time to buy.

It was a good week, time to buy.
Wealthtrack with Consuelo Mack on the latest shows indicate the different views of the market future. On March 29, Treasury Bond Maven Robert Kessler Warns of Recession Ahead & Where to Take Shelter. On March 22, Prescient Economist & Fed Expert Paul McCulley on No Recession Ahead and Fed’s Tightening Done.

IRA#1
ChinaRegion has a price of 36.32, a sell price TBD, a rank of 01, and is a buy. (ETF – CNXT, ASHS)
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 68.56, a sell price 65.13, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SGold has a price of 19.12, a sell price 18.72, a rank of 62, and is a hold for now. (ETF – GDX, GDXJ)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 16.89, a sell price 16.42, a rank of 32, and is a hold this week. (ETF – ITA, XAR)
ChinaRegion has a price of 36.32, a sell price TBD, a rank of 01, and is a buy. (ETF – CNXT, ASHS)

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – Buy ChinaRegion
IRA #2 – Buy ChinaRegion

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
14.59 01-10 FHKCX 36.32 ChinaRegion Yes
13.79 02-13 FBSOX 68.56 SITServices Yes
12.69 03-07 FSPTX 16.54 STechnology Yes
12.46 04-01 FSELX 10.21 SSemiconductors
11.90 05-06 FSEAX 43.92 EmergingAsia Yes
11.06 06-05 FOCPX 12.01 OTCPortfolio Yes
10.50 07-08 FSDCX 41.85 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
9.95 08-06 FSCSX 19.53 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
9.67 09-04 FTQGX 24.59 FocusedStock Yes
9.66 10-05 FBMPX 79.63 SCommunicationServices
9.60 11-02 FSVLX 16.26 SConsumerFinance Yes
9.40 12-03 FSPGX 15.43 LargeCapGrowthIndex Yes
9.30 13-05 FRESX 45.01 RealEstateInvestment
9.27 14-02 FCYIX 34.61 SIndustrials Yes
9.24 15-01 FSAIX 76.64 SAirTransportation Yes
9.19 16-04 FDSVX 36.85 Growth Discovery Yes
8.88 17-01 FNCMX 103.22 NasdaqCompositeIndex Yes
8.87 18-01 FBGRX 100.28 BlueChipGrowth Yes
8.83 19-02 FSLSX 36.55 ValueStrategies Yes
8.83 20-03 FTRNX 101.90 Trend Yes
Last Week
13.58 01-12 FBSOX 67.94 SITServices
11.44 02-09 FHKCX 35.05 ChinaRegion
11.04 03-06 FSPTX 16.19 STechnology Yes
10.07 04-05 FSEAX 42.93 EmergingAsia
9.17 05-05 FSCSX 19.29 SSoftware&ITServices
8.55 06-04 FOCPX 11.67 OTCPortfolio
8.17 07-03 FTQGX 24.13 FocusedStock
7.86 08-02 FSRPX 15.65 SRetailing Yes
7.77 09-07 FSDCX 40.59 SCommunicationsEquipment
7.66 10-02 FSRNX 16.55 RealEstateIndex Yes
7.61 11-03 FDSVX 36.14 Growth Discovery
7.56 12-01 FSVLX 15.89 SConsumerFinance
7.48 13-01 FSCPX 45.80 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
7.45 14-01 FSLSX 35.92 ValueStrategies
7.42 15-02 FTRNX 100.12 Trend
7.38 16-02 FSPGX 15.07 LargeCapGrowthIndex Yes
7.24 17-01 FCYIX 33.80 SIndustrials
7.13 18-04 FRESX 43.90 RealEstateInvestment
6.85 19-04 FBMPX 77.19 SCommunicationServices
6.84 20-01 FDSSX 44.18 StockSelectorAllCap

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19) from Cash(11Mar19)
Feb19 1m-4% 3m-8% 6m-13% 12m-8% 24m+3% 36m+41% 60m+19% 120m+8%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19) from Cash(11Mar19)
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – Cash(11Mar19) from LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19)
Feb19 1m+1% 3m+0% 6m-7% 12m-4% 24m+2% 36m+24% 60m+12% 120m+37%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%

ETFs
PTNQ Feb19 1m+0% 3m+1% 6m-9% 12m+2%
QQQ Feb19 1m+3% 3m+3% 6m-7% 12m+4%