Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 544, 418, and now 420 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 03, 13, and now 11.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 0% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY and QQQ are above their 200 day moving average. IWM is not.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy.
It was the end of the quarter and as always money managers buy up those investments which have done well so when the reports come out they look like their portfolios are filled with winners. It is called window dressing and happens at the end of the quarter and sometimes the end of the month.
An interesting presentation on an inverted yield curve is available at https://www.thebalance.com/inverted-yield-curve-3305856 . Not every invesion results in a recession but since we are now have an inversion yield curve it is a concern.
IRA#1
none
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 67.94, a sell price 64.54, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SGold has a price of 19.18, a sell price 18.72, a rank of 25, and is a hold for now. (ETF – GDX, GDXJ)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 16.49, a sell price 16.42, a rank of 35, and it was a sell last week but moved to a hold this week. (ETF – ITA, XAR)
My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
13.58 01-12 FBSOX 67.94 SITServices
11.44 02-09 FHKCX 35.05 ChinaReqion
11.04 03-06 FSPTX 16.19 STechnology Yes
10.07 04-05 FSEAX 42.93 EmergingAsia
9.17 05-05 FSCSX 19.29 SSoftware&ITServices
8.55 06-04 FOCPX 11.67 OTCPortfolio
8.17 07-03 FTQGX 24.13 FocusedStock
7.86 08-02 FSRPX 15.65 SRetailing Yes
7.77 09-07 FSDCX 40.59 SCommunicationsEquipment
7.66 10-02 FSRNX 16.55 RealEstateIndex Yes
7.61 11-03 FDSVX 36.14 Growth Discovery
7.56 12-01 FSVLX 15.89 SConsumerFinance
7.48 13-01 FSCPX 45.80 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
7.45 14-01 FSLSX 35.92 ValueStrategies
7.42 15-02 FTRNX 100.12 Trend
7.38 16-02 FSPGX 15.07 LargeCapGrowthIndex Yes
7.24 17-01 FCYIX 33.80 SIndustrials
7.13 18-04 FRESX 43.90 RealEstateInvestment
6.85 19-04 FBMPX 77.19 SCommunicationServices
6.84 20-01 FDSSX 44.18 StockSelectorAllCap
Last Week
11.62 01-11 FBSOX 66.29 SITServices
10.87 02-05 FSPTX 16.07 STechnology Yes
9.62 03-08 FHKCX 34.27 ChinaReqion
8.65 04-04 FSEAX 42.15 EmergingAsia
8.45 05-04 FSCSX 19.07 SSoftware&ITServices
8.30 06-03 FSAGX 19.41 SGold
8.20 07-03 FOCPX 11.58 OTCPortfolio
7.79 08-03 FBMPX 77.59 SCommunicationServices
7.54 09-03 FRESX 43.90 RealEstateInvestment
7.44 10-03 FSUTX 88.26 SUtilities
7.04 11-02 FSELX 9.62 SSemiconductors
6.85 12-01 FSRNX 16.36 RealEstateIndex Yes
6.84 13-02 FTQGX 23.73 FocusedStock
6.54 14-02 FDSVX 35.64 Growth Discovery
6.36 15-01 FSPGX 14.87 LargeCapGrowthIndex Yes
6.34 16-01 FTRNX 98.72 Trend
6.13 17-06 FSDCX 39.81 SCommunicationsEquipment
6.09 18-01 FSRPX 15.33 SRetailing Yes
5.99 19-01 FAMRX 18.75 Asset Manager 85%
5.99 20-01 FBGRX 96.83 BlueChipGrowth
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(11Mar19) from LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19)
Feb19 1m-4% 3m-8% 6m-13% 12m-8% 24m+3% 36m+41% 60m+19% 120m+8%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – Cash(11Mar19) from LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19)
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
Feb19 1m+1% 3m+0% 6m-7% 12m-4% 24m+2% 36m+24% 60m+12% 120m+37%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%
ETFs
PTNQ Feb19 1m+0% 3m+1% 6m-9% 12m+2%
QQQ Feb19 1m+3% 3m+3% 6m-7% 12m+4%