Month: February 2019

A good week, a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 270, 493, and now 553 – up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 39, 36, and now 75.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 6% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 6% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 10% above its 50 day moving average,
All three indicators are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Time to buy.

The Pacer Trendpilot ETF, PTLC (US Large Cap), switched from T-Bills to Equities on 21Feb.
The Pacer Trendpilot ETF, PTNQ (Nasdaq 100), will switch from T-Bills to Equities on 25Feb.
The other Pacer Trendpilot ETFs. PTMC (US Mid Cap) and PTEU (European Index), are still in T-Bills.

I think everyone should seriously consider investing in a Pacer Trendpilot ETF. For years I have consistently suggested watching SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and when it moves below its 200 day moving average invest in cash. Then reinvest in SPY when it moves above its 200 day moving average. PTLC does that for you. I like PTNQ a little more because QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is a little more volatible and can produce slightly larger gains.

IRA#1
LatinAmerica has a price of 24.42, a sell price 23.88, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
IRA#2
LatinAmerica has a price of 24.42, a sell price 23.88, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
SITServices has a price of 64.50, a sell price 61.28, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SGold has a price of 19.71, a sell price 18.72, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – GDX, GDXJ)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 17.17, a sell price TBD, a rank of 01, and is a Buy. (ETF – ITA, XAR)

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – Invest in SDefense&Aerospace.

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
12.37 01-04 FSDAX 17.17 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
11.64 02-05 FSAGX 19.71 SGold
11.30 03-07 FBSOX 64.50 SITServices Yes
10.59 04-20 FLATX 24.42 LatinAmerica
10.56 05-07 FCPEX 12.71 SmallCapEnhancedIndex Yes
10.54 06-04 FHKCX 33.84 ChinaReqion Yes
9.78 07-07 FSSNX 20.36 SmallCapIndex Yes
9.52 08-02 FSDCX 40.44 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
9.07 09-07 FRESX 43.87 RealEstateInvestment Yes
8.89 10-07 FDSCX 23.29 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
8.78 11-07 FSVLX 15.75 SConsumerFinance
8.56 12-07 FSLCX 16.55 SmallCapStock
8.46 13-03 FCYIX 33.61 SIndustrials
8.33 14-02 FSSMX 35.38 StockSelectorMidCap Yes
8.20 15-02 FDVLX 10.23 Value Yes
8.01 16-01 FSPTX 15.36 STechnology Yes
8.00 17-05 FMEIX 14.55 MidCapEnchancedIndex Yes
7.92 18-05 FSRNX 16.31 RealEstateIndex
7.85 19-01 FSELX 24.98 SEnvironment&AlternativeEnergy Yes
7.61 20-02 FSMEX 53.28 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
Last Week
12.26 01-19 FLATX 24.65 LatinAmerica
11.98 02-03 FSDAX 17.00 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
11.15 03-06 FBSOX 64.03 SITServices Yes
9.04 04-06 FRESX 43.65 RealEstateInvestment Yes
9.00 05-06 FCPEX 12.46 SmallCapEnhancedIndex
8.94 06-02 FCYIX 33.61 SIndustrials Yes
8.94 07-06 FSVLX 15.70 SConsumerFinance Yes
8.88 08-06 FSSNX 20.09 SmallCapIndex Yes
8.59 09-05 FSLCX 16.48 SmallCapStock
8.33 10-06 FDSCX 23.06 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
8.17 11-04 FSAGX 18.98 SGold
8.04 12-04 FSRNX 16.26 RealEstateIndex Yes
7.73 13-01 FSDCX 39.58 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
7.72 14-01 FDVLX 10.14 Value
7.70 15-01 FSMEX 53.11 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices Yes
7.65 15-02 FSRFX 96.80 STransportation Yes
7.64 17-01 FSSMX 35.00 StockSelectorMidCap Yes
7.41 18-04 FMEIX 14.41 MidCapEnchancedIndex Yes
7.29 19-05 FDSSX 43.45 StockSelectorAllCap
7.28 20-03 FHKCX 32.66 ChinaReqion

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
Nov18 1m+2% 3m-5% 6m-3% 12m-2% 24m+24% 36m+42% 60m+35% 120m+3%
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
Nov18 1m+1% 3m-7% 6m-4% 12m-5% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+16% 120m+33%
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%

A good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 288, 270, and now 493 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 54, 39, and now 36.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 7% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 5% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM is still below its 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Time to buy but not this week.

Pacer Trendpilot ETFs which invest in indexes or T-bills based on the index price vs its 200 day moving average are still invested in T-bills.

This week’s MacroVoices podcast (you can listen online) features an interview with Francesco Fillia: Stock market CRASH is entirely possible. “But I believe that we are into a market situation which resembles what we have seen during the Lehman years, what we have seen during into 1929, to a lesser extent what we have seen during 1987, and to a lesser extent, also, to what we have seen in 2007 during the so-called Quant Quake.”

IRA#1
LatinAmerica has a price of 24.65, a sell price 23.88, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
IRA#2
LatinAmerica has a price of 24.65, a sell price 23.88, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
SITServices has a price of 64.03, a sell price 60.83, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SGold has a price of 18.98, a sell price 18.03, a rank of 11, and is a hold. (ETF – GDX, GDXJ)

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund
symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
12.26 01-19 FLATX 24.65 LatinAmerica
11.98 02-03 FSDAX 17.00 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
11.15 03-06 FBSOX 64.03 SITServices Yes
9.04 04-06 FRESX 43.65 RealEstateInvestment Yes
9.00 05-06 FCPEX 12.46 SmallCapEnhancedIndex
8.94 06-02 FCYIX 33.61 SIndustrials Yes
8.94 07-06 FSVLX 15.70 SConsumerFinance Yes
8.88 08-06 FSSNX 20.09 SmallCapIndex Yes
8.59 09-05 FSLCX 16.48 SmallCapStock
8.33 10-06 FDSCX 23.06 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
8.17 11-04 FSAGX 18.98 SGold
8.04 12-04 FSRNX 16.26 RealEstateIndex Yes
7.73 13-01 FSDCX 39.58 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
7.72 14-01 FDVLX 10.14 Value
7.70 15-01 FSMEX 53.11 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices Yes
7.65 15-02 FSRFX 96.80 STransportation Yes
7.64 17-01 FSSMX 35.00 StockSelectorMidCap Yes
7.41 18-04 FMEIX 14.41 MidCapEnchancedIndex Yes
7.29 19-05 FDSSX 43.45 StockSelectorAllCap
7.28 20-03 FHKCX 32.66 ChinaReqion
Last Week
11.79 01-18 FLATX 24.39 LatinAmerica
8.83 02-05 FRESX 43.36 RealEstateInvestment Yes
8.65 03-02 FSDAX 16.39 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
8.65 04-05 FBSOX 62.22 SITServices Yes
8.23 05-03 FSAGX 18.91 SGold
7.76 06-03 FSRNX 16.15 RealEstateIndex Yes
6.57 07-05 FHKCX 32.32 ChinaReqion
6.17 08-05 FSVLX 15.23 SConsumerFinance Yes
5.71 09-01 FCYIX 32.46 SIndustrials Yes
5.12 10-05 FDSCX 22.28 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
5.06 11-03 FMEIX 14.04 MidCapEnchancedIndex Yes
4.96 12-02 FBMPX 73.99 SCommunicationServices
4.95 13-01 FSRFX 93.99 STransportation Yes
4.93 14-05 FSSNX 19.27 SmallCapIndex Yes
4.85 15-04 FSLCX 15.84 SmallCapStock
4.82 16-01 FSPTX 14.79 STechnology Yes
4.68 17-04 FDSSX 42.23 StockSelectorAllCap
4.59 18-05 FCPEX 11.90 SmallCapEnhancedIndex
4.53 19-01 FSMDX 20.87 MidCapIndex Yes
4.45 20-03 FSEAX 39.63 EmergingAsia

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
Nov18 1m+2% 3m-5% 6m-3% 12m-2% 24m+24% 36m+42% 60m+35% 120m+3%
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
Nov18 1m+1% 3m-7% 6m-4% 12m-5% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+16% 120m+33%
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%

An ok week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 156, 288, and now 270 – not up 2 weeks in a row
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 53, 54, and now 39.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average,
However, it should be pointed out that while all the indexes are above their short term 50 day moving average, they are still all below their 200 day long term moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Time to buy but not this week.

I think it is interesting to look at the Pacer Trendpilot ETFs which invest in indexes or T-bills based on the index price vs its 200 day moving average. All 4 ETFs are invested in T-bills. They got close to investing in their index this week but only close. I think these are a great buy and hold investment.

This week’s MacroVoices podcast (you can listen online) is still claiming we are in a bounce up in a down market. That seems to be the consensus for several of the reports I hear and read. I even heard a push for the Kondratiev wave (the Financial Winter Is Coming). It is a 40 to 60 year cycle which last hit in 1973 (according to this author) and was going to come again soon.

I do my own taxes at home using HRBlock software. When I went into the program today, it said I had a 07Feb update installed and it would not let me efile until I installed a 07Feb update (which I tried 9 times). I finally gave up and chatted with customer service. My 6 hour headache with this software finally ended with the 6th rep who said delete and reinstall the software. It seem there was no 07Feb update – it was put off until 15Feb. It was not a fun 6 hours. Not ready for prime time customer service.

IRA#1
LatinAmerica has a price of 24.39, a sell price 23.88, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
IRA#2
LatinAmerica has a price of 24.39, a sell price 23.88, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
SITServices has a price of 6.22, a sell price 59.11, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SGold has a price of 18.91, a sell price 17.96, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – GDX, GDXJ)

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
11.79 01-18 FLATX 24.39 LatinAmerica
8.83 02-05 FRESX 43.36 RealEstateInvestment Yes
8.65 03-02 FSDAX 16.39 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
8.65 04-05 FBSOX 62.22 SITServices Yes
8.23 05-03 FSAGX 18.91 SGold
7.76 06-03 FSRNX 16.15 RealEstateIndex Yes
6.57 07-05 FHKCX 32.32 ChinaReqion
6.17 08-05 FSVLX 15.23 SConsumerFinance Yes
5.71 09-01 FCYIX 32.46 SIndustrials Yes
5.12 10-05 FDSCX 22.28 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
5.06 11-03 FMEIX 14.04 MidCapEnchancedIndex Yes
4.96 12-02 FBMPX 73.99 SCommunicationServices
4.95 13-01 FSRFX 93.99 STransportation Yes
4.93 14-05 FSSNX 19.27 SmallCapIndex Yes
4.85 15-04 FSLCX 15.84 SmallCapStock
4.82 16-01 FSPTX 14.79 STechnology Yes
4.68 17-04 FDSSX 42.23 StockSelectorAllCap
4.59 18-05 FCPEX 11.90 SmallCapEnhancedIndex
4.53 19-01 FSMDX 20.87 MidCapIndex Yes
4.45 20-03 FSEAX 39.63 EmergingAsia
Last Week
15.95 01-17 FLATX 25.14 LatinAmerica Yes
9.97 02-02 FSAGX 19.13 SGold Yes
7.17 03-04 FRESX 42.50 RealEstateInvestment Yes
7.14 04-04 FHKCX 32.38 ChinaReqion Yes
7.09 05-04 FBSOX 61.05 SITServices Yes
6.12 06-02 FSRNX 15.84 RealEstateIndex Yes
5.96 07-04 FSVLX 15.15 SConsumerFinance Yes
5.88 08-11 FEMEX 9.57 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA) Yes
5.68 09-01 FSDAX 15.87 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
5.52 10-01 FBMPX 74.19 SCommunicationServices
5.51 11-03 FSLCX 15.90 SmallCapStock Yes
4.98 12-02 FSPHX 24.26 SHealthCare Yes
4.98 13-04 FDSCX 22.19 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
4.97 14-02 FMEIX 13.99 MidCapEnchancedIndex Yes
4.88 15-04 FSSNX 19.21 SmallCapIndex
4.87 16-01 FDVLX 9.81 Value
4.85 17-04 FCPEX 11.90 SmallCapEnhancedIndex Yes
4.69 18-03 FDSSX 42.13 StockSelectorAllCap
4.65 19-01 FSLSX 34.05 ValueStrategies Yes
4.53 20-02 FSEAX 39.57 EmergingAsia Yes

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
Nov18 1m+2% 3m-5% 6m-3% 12m-2% 24m+24% 36m+42% 60m+35% 120m+3%
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
Nov18 1m+1% 3m-7% 6m-4% 12m-5% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+16% 120m+33%
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%

A good week, a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 125, 156, and now 288 – up 2 weeks in a row
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 94, 53, and now 54.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average.
However, it should be pointed out that while all the indexes are above their short term 50 day moving average, they are still all below their 200 day long term moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Time to buy.

I think it is interesting to look at the Pacer Trendpilot ETFs which invest in indexes or T-bills based on the ETF index price vs 200 day moving average. All 4 ETFs are invested in T-bills.

This week’s report is short because I’ve been working too much. Will try to do better next week.

IRA#1
LatinAmerica has a price of 25.14, a sell price 23.88, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
IRA#2
LatinAmerica has a price of 25.14, a sell price 23.88, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
SITServices has a price of 61.05, a sell price 58.00, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SGold has a price of 19.13, a sell price TBD, a rank of 02, and is a buy. (ETF – GDX, GDXJ)

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – 20% invested in SGold

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
15.95 01-17 FLATX 25.14 LatinAmerica Yes
9.97 02-02 FSAGX 19.13 SGold Yes
7.17 03-04 FRESX 42.50 RealEstateInvestment Yes
7.14 04-04 FHKCX 32.38 ChinaReqion Yes
7.09 05-04 FBSOX 61.05 SITServices Yes
6.12 06-02 FSRNX 15.84 RealEstateIndex Yes
5.96 07-04 FSVLX 15.15 SConsumerFinance Yes
5.88 08-11 FEMEX 9.57 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA) Yes
5.68 09-01 FSDAX 15.87 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
5.52 10-01 FBMPX 74.19 SCommunicationServices
5.51 11-03 FSLCX 15.90 SmallCapStock Yes
4.98 12-02 FSPHX 24.26 SHealthCare Yes
4.98 13-04 FDSCX 22.19 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
4.97 14-02 FMEIX 13.99 MidCapEnchancedIndex Yes
4.88 15-04 FSSNX 19.21 SmallCapIndex
4.87 16-01 FDVLX 9.81 Value
4.85 17-04 FCPEX 11.90 SmallCapEnhancedIndex Yes
4.69 18-03 FDSSX 42.13 StockSelectorAllCap
4.65 19-01 FSLSX 34.05 ValueStrategies Yes
4.53 20-02 FSEAX 39.57 EmergingAsia Yes
Last Week
13.21 01-16 FLATX 24.34 LatinAmerica Yes
6.07 02-03 FBSOX 60.24 SITServices Yes
5.98 03-03 FHKCX 31.91 ChinaReqion Yes
5.1 04-10 FEMEX 9.47 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA) Yes
5.03 05-03 FSVLX 14.97 SConsumerFinance Yes
4.54 06-03 FRESX 41.3 RealEstateInvestment Yes
4.42 07-01 FSAGX 18.07 SGold
3.89 08-02 FSLCX 15.61 SmallCapStock Yes
3.78 09-03 FSSNX 18.96 SmallCapIndex
3.72 10-02 FIDSX 9.41 SFinancialServices Yes
3.7 11-03 FCPEX 11.74 SmallCapEnhancedIndex Yes
3.66 12-01 FSPHX 23.89 SHealthCare
3.65 13-04 FSRPX 14.69 SRetailing
3.58 14-01 FSRNX 15.41 RealEstateIndex Yes
3.55 15-03 FDSCX 21.83 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
3.44 16-01 FMEIX 13.75 MidCapEnchancedIndex Yes
3.43 17-01 FSEAX 39.06 EmergingAsia Yes
3.41 18-05 FAMRX 17.88 Asset Manager 85% Yes
3.36 19-02 FDSSX 41.49 StockSelectorAllCap
3.25 20-03 FSCPX 42.95 SConsumerDiscretionary

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
Nov18 1m+2% 3m-5% 6m-3% 12m-2% 24m+24% 36m+42% 60m+35% 120m+3%
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
Nov18 1m+1% 3m-7% 6m-4% 12m-5% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+16% 120m+33%
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%