Month: January 2019

A good week, a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -99, 125, and now 156 – up 2 weeks in a row
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 93, 94, and now 53.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 2% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Time to buy.

Interesting view of the market future –
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/01/23/bear-market-will-continue-through-2020-says-mark-yusko.html

Blame the computers – they did on 10/19/87 when the DJIA dropped 23% in one day – and now again –
https://thefelderreport.com/2019/01/23/why-blaming-the-algos-for-the-decline-is-really-just-an-inverted-stock-tip/

ETFDB.com offered a good webinar on Thursday. It featured the Pacer Trendpilot ETF Series. ETFDB said the webinar would be recorded but I’ve not seen the recording yet but will post it when/if I find it. If you go to Paceretfs.com you can see the Pacer Trendpilot funds are all invested in T-Bills since the indexes they follow are below their 200 day moving average. If you click on one of the funds they will explain their use of a 200 day moving average to be in, half in, or out of the market. Since all trading is done within the ETFs, there are no buys or sells to report at tax time. Many times I have suggested to investors to hold SPY (S&P500) when it is above the 200 day moving average and sell when it is not. Here are 4 ETFs which do it for you, based on 4 different indexes.

IRA#1
LatinAmerica has a price of 24.34, a sell price 23.12, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
IRA#2
LatinAmerica has a price of 24.34, a sell price 23.12, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
SITServices has a price of 61.24, a sell price TBD, a rank of 02, and is a BUY. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – 20% invested in SITServices

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
13.21 01-16 FLATX 24.34 LatinAmerica Yes
6.07 02-03 FBSOX 60.24 SITServices Yes
5.98 03-03 FHKCX 31.91 ChinaReqion Yes
5.1 04-10 FEMEX 9.47 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA) Yes
5.03 05-03 FSVLX 14.97 SConsumerFinance Yes
4.54 06-03 FRESX 41.3 RealEstateInvestment Yes
4.42 07-01 FSAGX 18.07 SGold
3.89 08-02 FSLCX 15.61 SmallCapStock Yes
3.78 09-03 FSSNX 18.96 SmallCapIndex
3.72 10-02 FIDSX 9.41 SFinancialServices Yes
3.7 11-03 FCPEX 11.74 SmallCapEnhancedIndex Yes
3.66 12-01 FSPHX 23.89 SHealthCare
3.65 13-04 FSRPX 14.69 SRetailing
3.58 14-01 FSRNX 15.41 RealEstateIndex Yes
3.55 15-03 FDSCX 21.83 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
3.44 16-01 FMEIX 13.75 MidCapEnchancedIndex Yes
3.43 17-01 FSEAX 39.06 EmergingAsia Yes
3.41 18-05 FAMRX 17.88 Asset Manager 85% Yes
3.36 19-02 FDSSX 41.49 StockSelectorAllCap
3.25 20-03 FSCPX 42.95 SConsumerDiscretionary
Last Week
13.07 01-15 FLATX 24.14 LatinAmerica Yes
4.63 02-02 FBSOX 59.23 SITServices Yes
4.52 03-02 FHKCX 31.37 ChinaReqion Yes
4.06 04-03 FSRPX 14.72 SRetailing Yes
3.98 05-02 FSSNX 18.96 SmallCapIndex Yes
3.90 06-02 FSVLX 14.77 SConsumerFinance Yes
3.60 07-09 FEMEX 9.31 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA) Yes
3.55 08-02 FCPEX 11.70 SmallCapEnhancedIndex Yes
3.53 09-02 FBMPX 72.47 SCommunicationServices Yes
3.50 10-01 FSLBX 69.85 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement Yes
3.50 11-02 FRESX 40.79 RealEstateInvestment Yes
3.43 12-02 FSCPX 42.95 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
3.41 13-01 FDSSX 41.44 StockSelectorAllCap Yes
3.37 14-01 FIDSX 9.36 SFinancialServices Yes
3.31 15-01 FOCPX 10.76 OTCPortfolio Yes
3.30 16-04 FAMRX 17.83 Asset Manager 85% Yes
3.30 17-01 FSLCX 15.49 SmallCapStock Yes
3.27 18-02 FDSCX 21.73 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
3.26 19-01 FTQGX 22.34 FocusedStock Yes
3.16 20-01 FDVLX 9.61 Value Yes

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
Nov18 1m+2% 3m-5% 6m-3% 12m-2% 24m+24% 36m+42% 60m+35% 120m+3%
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
Nov18 1m+1% 3m-7% 6m-4% 12m-5% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+16% 120m+33%
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%

A good week, a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -581, -99, and now 125 – up 2 weeks in a row
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 02, 93, and now 94.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 2% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 2% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 1% above its 50 day moving average,
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Time to buy.

It looks like the Working Group on Financial Markets (WGFM) also known as the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) decided after the 12/24 market drop to go into action. The Secretary of the Treasury, chair of the PPT, got the group into action and also called all the big banks. The market has been up since then. On 04Jan even the chair of the Federal Reserve Board fell into line and decided there may not be more interest rate increases this year. The old market mantra is “Don’t fight the FED.”

On the this week’s MACRO Voices podcast the conclusion seems the be that the market peaks are past. The first down turn had finished. The rebound in now taking place – and it could last months – before it ends and the bigger drop starts. The MACRO Voices podcasts are very interesting and educational.

On something not related to the market, if you text Pepsi to 50563 and answer the questions, you may win two tickets to the Super Bowl in 2020 and some other stuff. You can enter daily with a text or a call to 800-537-7723.

IRA#1
LatinAmerica has a price of 24.14, a sell price TBD, a rank of 01, and is a buy. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
IRA#2
LatinAmerica has a price of 24.14, a sell price TBD, a rank of 01, and is a buy. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – 100% invested in LatinAmerica
IRA #2 – 20% invested in LatinAmerica

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – s0% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
13.07 01-15 FLATX 24.14 LatinAmerica Yes
4.63 02-02 FBSOX 59.23 SITServices Yes
4.52 03-02 FHKCX 31.37 ChinaReqion Yes
4.06 04-03 FSRPX 14.72 SRetailing Yes
3.98 05-02 FSSNX 18.96 SmallCapIndex Yes
3.90 06-02 FSVLX 14.77 SConsumerFinance Yes
3.60 07-09 FEMEX 9.31 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA) Yes
3.55 08-02 FCPEX 11.70 SmallCapEnhancedIndex Yes
3.53 09-02 FBMPX 72.47 SCommunicationServices Yes
3.50 10-01 FSLBX 69.85 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement Yes
3.50 11-02 FRESX 40.79 RealEstateInvestment Yes
3.43 12-02 FSCPX 42.95 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
3.41 13-01 FDSSX 41.44 StockSelectorAllCap Yes
3.37 14-01 FIDSX 9.36 SFinancialServices Yes
3.31 15-01 FOCPX 10.76 OTCPortfolio Yes
3.30 16-04 FAMRX 17.83 Asset Manager 85% Yes
3.30 17-01 FSLCX 15.49 SmallCapStock Yes
3.27 18-02 FDSCX 21.73 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
3.26 19-01 FTQGX 22.34 FocusedStock Yes
3.16 20-01 FDVLX 9.61 Value Yes
Last Week
10.55 01-14 FLATX 23.44 LatinAmerica Yes
4.64 02-06 FSAGX 18.06 SGold
3.13 03-08 FEMEX 9.25 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA) Yes
2.37 04-02 FSRPX 14.45 SRetailing Yes
1.89 05-01 FHKCX 30.51 ChinaReqion Yes
1.81 06-14 FIUIX 25.46 TelecomandUtilities Yes
1.78 07-01 FSCPX 42.19 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
1.73 08-01 FSSNX 18.51 SmallCapIndex Yes
1.62 09-01 FBSOX 57.39 SITServices Yes
1.54 10-14 FRIFX 11.49 RealEstateIncome Yes
1.51 11-01 FBMPX 70.92 SCommunicationServices Yes
1.44 12-01 FCPEX 11.44 SmallCapEnhancedIndex Yes
1.40 13-01 FRESX 39.89 RealEstateInvestment
1.22 14-03 FAMRX 17.44 Asset Manager 85% Yes
0.95 15-01 FSVLX 14.32 SConsumerFinance Yes
0.79 16-14 FSUTX 80.94 SUtilities
0.78 17-01 FDSCX 21.17 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
0.70 18-06 FCONX 10.01 ConservativeIncomeBond
0.65 19-01 FSTCX 56.53 STelecommunications Yes
0.64 20-01 FSEAX 37.88 EmergingAsia Yes

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
Nov18 1m+2% 3m-5% 6m-3% 12m-2% 24m+24% 36m+42% 60m+35% 120m+3%
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
Nov18 1m+1% 3m-7% 6m-4% 12m-5% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+16% 120m+33%
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%

Not a bad week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -865, -581, and now -99 – up 2 weeks in a row but the numbers are still negative.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 00, 02, and now 93.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 2% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 1% below its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 1% below its 50 day moving average,
The sum of the deviations is negative.
Not a week to buy.
Another week like this will be time to buy. If it turns out FLATX is a buy, I will buy it for my mutual fund accounts and ETFs EWZS and FBZ for all others.

Liz Ann Sonders, a chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, discusses the recent market rally, the Zweig Breadth Thrust, and the likelihood the rally maintains its momentum with CNBC’s “Closing Bell” team.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/01/09/uncertainties-remain-recent-market-rally-decent-liz-ann-sonders.html

Again on Friday Gary Kaltbaum pointed out that on 01/04/19 the head of the Federal Reserve Board indicated he would adjust interest rates based on the economy – i.e. if the market goes down he will start QE again to save it. Kaltbaum indicates we probably seen the market low – at least for a couple of months.

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
10.55 01-14 FLATX 23.44 LatinAmerica Yes
4.64 02-06 FSAGX 18.06 SGold
3.13 03-08 FEMEX 9.25 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA) Yes
2.37 04-02 FSRPX 14.45 SRetailing Yes
1.89 05-01 FHKCX 30.51 ChinaReqion Yes
1.81 06-14 FIUIX 25.46 TelecomandUtilities Yes
1.78 07-01 FSCPX 42.19 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
1.73 08-01 FSSNX 18.51 SmallCapIndex Yes
1.62 09-01 FBSOX 57.39 SITServices Yes
1.54 10-14 FRIFX 11.49 RealEstateIncome Yes
1.51 11-01 FBMPX 70.92 SCommunicationServices Yes
1.44 12-01 FCPEX 11.44 SmallCapEnhancedIndex Yes
1.40 13-01 FRESX 39.89 RealEstateInvestment
1.22 14-03 FAMRX 17.44 Asset Manager 85% Yes
0.95 15-01 FSVLX 14.32 SConsumerFinance Yes
0.79 16-14 FSUTX 80.94 SUtilities
0.78 17-01 FDSCX 21.17 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
0.70 18-06 FCONX 10.01 ConservativeIncomeBond
0.65 19-01 FSTCX 56.53 STelecommunications Yes
0.64 20-01 FSEAX 37.88 EmergingAsia Yes

Last Week
 6.99    01-05   FSAGX   18.42   SGold    Yes
 6.90    02-13   FLATX   22.54   LatinAmerica       
 0.63    03-05   FCONX   10.00   ConservativeIncomeBond     
 -0.67    04-13   FRIFX   11.23   RealEstateIncome       
 -1.62    05-13   FSUTX   78.97   SUtilities     
 -1.72    06-07   FEMEX   8.80    EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)       
 -1.85    07-13   FIUIX   24.52   TelecomandUtilities        
 -2.92    08-02   FTQGX   20.97   FocusedStock       
 -3.48    09-01   FCNTX   11.14   Contrafund     
 -3.69    10-01   FDSVX   31.43   Growth Discovery       
 -3.89    11-05   FIREX   10.68   InternationalRealEstate    
 -3.95    12-01   FMAGX   9.07    Magellan       
 -3.96    13-01   FLCSX   27.62   LargeCapStock      
 -3.99    14-01   FMEIX   12.72   MidCapEnchancedIndex       
 -3.99    15-01   FLGEX   17.02   LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex    
 -4.03    16-01   FSRPX   13.53   SRetailing     
 -4.05    17-01   FDFFX   31.28   Independence       
 -4.06    18-02   FAMRX   16.52   Asset Manager 85%      
 -4.21    19-03   FNMIX   14.28   NewMarketsIncome       
 -4.21    20-01   FSPGX   13.08   LargeCapGrowthIndex      

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
Nov18 1m+2% 3m-5% 6m-3% 12m-2% 24m+24% 36m+42% 60m+35% 120m+3%
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
Nov18 1m+1% 3m-7% 6m-4% 12m-5% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+16% 120m+33%
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%

Not a bad week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -1078, -865, and now -581 – up 2 weeks in a row but the numbers are still negative.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 03, 00, and now 02.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 5% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 6% below its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 6% below its 50 day moving average,
The sum of the deviations is negative.
Not a week to buy.

Another interesting week. The DJIA was up 1.15% on Monday, 0.08% on Wednesday, -2.83% on Thursday, and 3.29% on Friday. For the week the DJIA was up 1.61%. On Friday the employment numbers came out and they were better than expected. The unemployment rate has been under 4% for 9 months and that is the best stretch in over 50 years. So the market went up 1.5%. A little later the chairman on the Federal Reserve Board indicated they would probably not increase the interest rate again and the market went up another 1.5%.

I talked to Fidelity again. Seems the numbers in their quote reporting system were Thursdays. The net change was Friday’s, the percent gain was Friday’s, date on the quote said it was Friday’s but the actual quotes were Thursday’s. Yahoo had the correct numbers, Google had the correct numbers, the Fidelity rep had the correct numbers but the Fidelity web site did not. The rep said the correct numbers would drabble in over the next couple of hours. I suggest the “as of” date drabble in at the same time. I’ve called them many times and they just do not seem to give a darn. One of these days I will get frustrated enough to figure out a way to report them to the SEC. Providing bad quotes on their funds does not seem to be a legal activity.

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
6.99 01-05 FSAGX 18.42 SGold Yes
6.90 02-13 FLATX 22.54 LatinAmerica
0.63 03-05 FCONX 10.00 ConservativeIncomeBond
-0.67 04-13 FRIFX 11.23 RealEstateIncome
-1.62 05-13 FSUTX 78.97 SUtilities
-1.72 06-07 FEMEX 8.80 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)
-1.85 07-13 FIUIX 24.52 TelecomandUtilities
-2.92 08-02 FTQGX 20.97 FocusedStock
-3.48 09-01 FCNTX 11.14 Contrafund
-3.69 10-01 FDSVX 31.43 Growth Discovery
-3.89 11-05 FIREX 10.68 InternationalRealEstate
-3.95 12-01 FMAGX 9.07 Magellan
-3.96 13-01 FLCSX 27.62 LargeCapStock
-3.99 14-01 FMEIX 12.72 MidCapEnchancedIndex
-3.99 15-01 FLGEX 17.02 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex
-4.03 16-01 FSRPX 13.53 SRetailing
-4.05 17-01 FDFFX 31.28 Independence
-4.06 18-02 FAMRX 16.52 Asset Manager 85%
-4.21 19-03 FNMIX 14.28 NewMarketsIncome
-4.21 20-01 FSPGX 13.08 LargeCapGrowthIndex

Last Week
1.72 01-12 FLATX 21.37 LatinAmerica
1.26 02-04 FSAGX 17.37 SGold
0.73 03-04 FCONX 10.01 ConservativeIncomeBond
0.57 04-12 FSUTX 80.82 SUtilities
-0.68 05-04 FCVSX 26.02 ConvertibleSecurities
-0.82 06-12 FRIFX 11.21 RealEstateIncome
-2.23 07-12 FIUIX 24.42 TelecomandUtilities
-2.24 08-06 FEMEX 8.74 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)
-3.69 09-04 FIREX 10.70 InternationalRealEstate
-3.83 10-10 FSRNX 14.28 RealEstateIndex
-3.94 11-02 FSEAX 36.88 EmergingAsia
-4.26 12-02 FNMIX 14.27 NewMarketsIncome
-4.59 13-05 FRESX 38.27 RealEstateInvestment
-5.38 14-02 FHKCX 29.36 ChinaReqion
-5.85 15-01 FTQGX 20.69 FocusedStock
-6.01 16-01 FAMRX 17.21 Asset Manager 85%
-6.51 17-01 FNORX 42.30 Nordic
-6.52 18-01 FEXPX 17.98 Export&Multinational
-6.89 19-01 FFNOX 40.11 Four-in-OneIndex
-7.09 20-01 FBGRX 83.24 BlueChipGrowth

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
Nov18 1m+2% 3m-5% 6m-3% 12m-2% 24m+24% 36m+42% 60m+35% 120m+3%
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
Nov18 1m+1% 3m-7% 6m-4% 12m-5% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+16% 120m+33%
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%