Month: December 2018

Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -561, -1078, and now -865 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 08, 03, and now 00,
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 7% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 7% below its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is -10% below its 50 day moving average,
The sum of the deviations is negative.
Not a week to buy.

Gary Kaltbaum “BEAR MARKET RALLIES ARE SHARP, QUICK, MAKE YOU FEEL GOOD, SUCK YOU IN AND BURY YOU SOON AFTER!”

An interesting week. The market was down 600 on Monday. Then the Secretary of the Treasury calls the heads of all the major banks and calls for a meeting of the PPT – the plunge protection team (Working Group on Financial Markets) set up after the crash after the 1987 crash. Wednesday the market goes up 1000. PPT at work?? Thursday the market was down 610 at 2:20 and then went up by 800 in the last 100 minutes to close up. PPT at work??

Nov returns for IRA#1 +2%, IRA#2 +1%, QQQ -0%, TQQQ +3%
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 -5%, IRA#2 -7%, QQQ -2%, TQQQ -5%
For the last 6 months, IRA#1 -3%, IRA#2 -4%, QQQ +8%, TQQQ +23%
For the last 12 months, IRA#1 -2%, IRA#2 -5%, QQQ 12%,
portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – 100% invested – Purchased SHealthCareServices(FSRPX) on 11/13
IRA#2 – 20% invested – Purchased SHealthCareServices(FSRPX) on 11/13
QQQ – 100% invested – None – now invested in the inverse QQQ – PSQ as of 10/26
TQQQ – 100% invested – None – now invested in the inverse TQQQ – SQQQ as of 10/26
The TQQQ portfolio was started in Feb18 thus no 12 months return yet (but they should be about 3X the QQQ portfolio).

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
1.72 01-12 FLATX 21.37 LatinAmerica
1.26 02-04 FSAGX 17.37 SGold
0.73 03-04 FCONX 10.01 ConservativeIncomeBond
0.57 04-12 FSUTX 80.82 SUtilities
-0.68 05-04 FCVSX 26.02 ConvertibleSecurities
-0.82 06-12 FRIFX 11.21 RealEstateIncome
-2.23 07-12 FIUIX 24.42 TelecomandUtilities
-2.24 08-06 FEMEX 8.74 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)
-3.69 09-04 FIREX 10.70 InternationalRealEstate
-3.83 10-10 FSRNX 14.28 RealEstateIndex
-3.94 11-02 FSEAX 36.88 EmergingAsia
-4.26 12-02 FNMIX 14.27 NewMarketsIncome
-4.59 13-05 FRESX 38.27 RealEstateInvestment
-5.38 14-02 FHKCX 29.36 ChinaReqion
-5.85 15-01 FTQGX 20.69 FocusedStock
-6.01 16-01 FAMRX 17.21 Asset Manager 85%
-6.51 17-01 FNORX 42.30 Nordic
-6.52 18-01 FEXPX 17.98 Export&Multinational
-6.89 19-01 FFNOX 40.11 Four-in-OneIndex
-7.09 20-01 FBGRX 83.24 BlueChipGrowth
Last Week
1.32 01-03 FSAGX 17.37 SGold
0.75 02-03 FCONX 10.01 ConservativeIncomeBond
0.60 03-11 FSUTX 80.82 SUtilities
-1.22 04-11 FRIFX 11.17 RealEstateIncome
-1.28 05-11 FLATX 20.72 LatinAmerica
-2.35 06-11 FIUIX 24.42 TelecomandUtilities
-3.62 07-09 FSRNX 14.34 RealEstateIndex
-4.25 08-04 FRESX 38.50 RealEstateInvestment
-4.50 09-01 FNMIX 14.27 NewMarketsIncome
-4.51 10-03 FIREX 10.63 InternationalRealEstate
-4.93 11-05 FEMEX 8.51 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)
-6.81 12-03 FCVSX 26.02 ConvertibleSecurities
-7.48 13-01 FHKCX 28.79 ChinaReqion
-7.57 14-10 FPHAX 18.53 SPharmaceuticals
-8.08 15-28 FSHCX 86.25 SHealthCareServices
-8.11 16-03 FBMPX 64.31 SCommunicationServices
-8.17 17-01 FSEAX 36.18 EmergingAsia
-8.22 18-01 FBALX 20.09 Balanced Fund
-8.61 19-01 FPURX 19.03 Puritian
-8.72 20-01 FSPCX 51.39 SInsurance

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
Nov18 1m+2% 3m-5% 6m-3% 12m-2% 24m+24% 36m+42% 60m+35% 120m+3%
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
Nov18 1m+1% 3m-7% 6m-4% 12m-5% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+16% 120m+33%
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%

Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -472, -561, and now -1078 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 08, 03, and now 00,
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 11% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 11% below its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 14% below its 50 day moving average,
The sum of the deviations is negative. I do not remember ever having a negative sum of the deviation below -1000. I was equally surprised when the sum of the deviations was above 1000 in January.

I sent a note ABC news this week. Every time they talk about the market going down, they talk about how 401k owners are losing money. I told them about the ABC news 2009 visit to 401k owners where ABC news suggested the 401k was now 201k. I pointed out that ABC news returned to those 201k owners in 2012 and asked how they felt now that their 201k was back to their old 401k values. At the time I told ABC news they asked the wrong question – the correct question what are the 401k owners going to do the next time the market drops. It looks like the next time is here and all ABC news does is talk about losing money in 401ks. I suggested my 401k (HR Block) was never more than 50% invested after January this year and now was all cash.

One of the indicators I use to see how well an investment is performing is the 50 day moving average. Finance.yahoo.com has a chart which the 50 day moving average is 89.56 for Fidelity Select Computers. Stockcharts.com’s chart says the 50 day moving average is 74.84. Another web site had it wrong, I reported it and they said the checked other sites and found the same number – not a valid answer. I persisted and they said they would fix it is a day or two, which they did. I’ve told Yahoo many times their numbers are bad and they do nothing.

SHealthCareServices sure was a bad investment. By the time it was sold I lost 8.5%. On the two ETFs I purchased, IHF lost 6.7% and XLV lost 3.8%.
If Fidelity had allowed me to sell it when I wanted to I would have lost 4.5%. Fidelity’s dumb rules increased my lost by 89%. Stay away from funds if you can.
If you want a “good” investment look at ETFSCREEN.COM. This week there were 10 ETFs which went up more than 30%. I have a small investment is SQQQ which only went up 28.80% last week. There were 10 ETFs which lost more than 24%. Take care in buying one.

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2
weeks).
This week:
1.32 01-03 FSAGX 17.37 SGold
0.75 02-03 FCONX 10.01 ConservativeIncomeBond
0.60 03-11 FSUTX 80.82 SUtilities
-1.22 04-11 FRIFX 11.17 RealEstateIncome
-1.28 05-11 FLATX 20.72 LatinAmerica
-2.35 06-11 FIUIX 24.42 TelecomandUtilities
-3.62 07-09 FSRNX 14.34 RealEstateIndex
-4.25 08-04 FRESX 38.50 RealEstateInvestment
-4.50 09-01 FNMIX 14.27 NewMarketsIncome
-4.51 10-03 FIREX 10.63 InternationalRealEstate
-4.93 11-05 FEMEX 8.51 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)
-6.81 12-03 FCVSX 26.02 ConvertibleSecurities
-7.48 13-01 FHKCX 28.79 ChinaReqion
-7.57 14-10 FPHAX 18.53 SPharmaceuticals
-8.08 15-28 FSHCX 86.25 SHealthCareServices
-8.11 16-03 FBMPX 64.31 SCommunicationServices
-8.17 17-01 FSEAX 36.18 EmergingAsia
-8.22 18-01 FBALX 20.09 Balanced Fund
-8.61 19-01 FPURX 19.03 Puritian
-8.72 20-01 FSPCX 51.39 SInsurance

Last Week
5.86 01-11 FSUTX 85.02 SUtilities Yes
3.24 02-10 FIUIX 25.85 TelecomandUtilities Yes
2.84 03-08 FSRNX 15.33 RealEstateIndex
1.94 04-06 FRESX 41.08 RealEstateInvestment
1.72 05-10 FRIFX 11.51 RealEstateIncome
1.27 06-27 FSHCX 95.43 SHealthCareServices
0.79 07-02 FCONX 10.01 ConservativeIncomeBond
-0.06 08-10 FLATX 20.99 LatinAmerica
-0.42 09-02 FSAGX 17.06 SGold
-0.86 10-03 FBMPX 69.68 SCommunicationServices
-1.32 11-09 FPHAX 19.86 SPharmaceuticals
-1.61 12-05 FEMEX 8.83 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)
-1.64 13-21 FSMEX 48.40 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
-1.76 14-02 FCVSX 27.53 ConvertibleSecurities
-2.14 15-02 FIREX 10.92 InternationalRealEstate
-2.23 16-09 FDFAX 73.44 SConsumerStaples
-2.25 17-11 FSTCX 55.29 STelecommunications
-2.28 18-03 FTQGX 21.65 FocusedStock
-2.36 19-01 FSDCX 36.01 SCommunicationsEquipment
-2.73 20-05 FDLSX 13.42 SLeisure

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+6% 12m+12% 24m+23% 36m+51% 60m+50% 120m+10%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+2%
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+5% 6m+5% 12m+8% 24m+18% 36m+26% 60m+27% 120m+46%%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%

Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -164, -472, and now -564 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 00, 08, and now 03.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 4% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 5% below its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 7% below its 50 day moving average,
my sum of deviations is negative.
The three ETFs are even further below their 200 day moving average. Being below a 50 day moving average says “consider selling”. Being below a 200 day moving average says “why hasn’t it been sold”.

On Fox Business News this morning, a guest was suggesting BX (Blackstone Group LP) was a good investment with a current distribution of over 8%. The host, Stuart Varney said he had purchased it when the same guest suggested it a while back when it way yielding 6% – he has about a 25% loss so far. BX is below both its 50 and 200 day moving average. As best as I can tell BX is a limited partnership (LP). LPs pay distributions with a 1065 K-1 instead of a 1099 Int/Div. A 1065 K-1 is generally a pain to report on your tax return. If the LP is in a tax sheltered account this is no tax reporting.

“As chief investment strategist for Charles Schwab , Liz Ann Sonders is Main Street’s guide to Wall Street. Lately, her advice to individual investors is to tread carefully, as she sees recession risks rising in 2019, some sort of bear market, and probably greater volatility.” https://www.barrons.com/articles/charles-schwab-strategist-on-stock-market-recession-51544799898

SHealthCareServices has a price of 95.43, a sell price 98.27, a rank of 04, and is a sell. (ETF – IHF, XLV)
The sell price have been adjusted for a distribution of $4.444. The current price is 6% below the adjusted purchase price and since it is after 12/12 Fidelity is not going to yell at me for selling it. I am selling it.

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA#1
Sell SHealthCareServices.
IRA#2
Sell SHealthCareServices.

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
5.86 01-11 FSUTX 85.02 SUtilities Yes
3.24 02-10 FIUIX 25.85 TelecomandUtilities Yes
2.84 03-08 FSRNX 15.33 RealEstateIndex
1.94 04-06 FRESX 41.08 RealEstateInvestment
1.72 05-10 FRIFX 11.51 RealEstateIncome
1.27 06-27 FSHCX 95.43 SHealthCareServices
0.79 07-02 FCONX 10.01 ConservativeIncomeBond
-0.06 08-10 FLATX 20.99 LatinAmerica
-0.42 09-02 FSAGX 17.06 SGold
-0.86 10-03 FBMPX 69.68 SCommunicationServices
-1.32 11-09 FPHAX 19.86 SPharmaceuticals
-1.61 12-05 FEMEX 8.83 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)
-1.64 13-21 FSMEX 48.40 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
-1.76 14-02 FCVSX 27.53 ConvertibleSecurities
-2.14 15-02 FIREX 10.92 InternationalRealEstate
-2.23 16-09 FDFAX 73.44 SConsumerStaples
-2.25 17-11 FSTCX 55.29 STelecommunications
-2.28 18-03 FTQGX 21.65 FocusedStock
-2.36 19-01 FSDCX 36.01 SCommunicationsEquipment
-2.73 20-05 FDLSX 13.42 SLeisure
Last Week
5.55 01-07 FSRNX 15.98 RealEstateIndex Yes
5.00 02-10 FSUTX 90.46 SUtilities Yes
4.54 03-05 FRESX 42.86 RealEstateInvestment
3.64 04-26 FSHCX 102.14 SHealthCareServices
3.00 05-09 FIUIX 27.19 TelecomandUtilities Yes
2.77 06-04 FEMEX 9.23 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA) Yes
2.58 07-09 FRIFX 11.85 RealEstateIncome Yes
0.83 08-01 FCONX 10.01 ConservativeIncomeBond
0.55 09-09 FLATX 21.12 LatinAmerica
0.26 10-01 FSAGX 17.18 SGold
0.11 11-08 FPHAX 20.43 SPharmaceuticals
-0.75 12-10 FSTCX 57.09 STelecommunications
-0.89 13-20 FSMEX 50.44 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
-1.00 14-02 FBMPX 75.52 SCommunicationServices
-1.48 15-08 FDFAX 78.63 SConsumerStaples
-1.51 16-05 FSPHX 24.49 SHealthCare
-1.62 17-01 FIREX 10.99 InternationalRealEstate Yes
-1.71 18-01 FCVSX 27.57 ConvertibleSecurities
-2.02 19-04 FDLSX 15.26 SLeisure
-2.39 20-02 FTQGX 21.65 FocusedStock

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+6% 12m+12% 24m+23% 36m+51% 60m+50% 120m+10%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+2%
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+5% 6m+5% 12m+8% 24m+18% 36m+26% 60m+27% 120m+46%%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%

Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -467, -164, and now -472 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 00, 00, and now 08.
In reviewing some of the market indicators, SPY (S&P500 ETF) crossed below its 50 day moving average on 12Oct, QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) crossed below its 50 day moving average on 06Oct, IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) crossed below its 50 day moving average on 28Sep, and my sum of all the deviations went negative on 12Oct. They still say do not buy.

There is an indicator called the death cross. It is when the 50 moving average going down crosses the 200 day moving average and indicates a bear market. Don sent me a note reminding me of this indicator. If you go to stockcharts.com and enter $SPX for the S&P 500 you can see the death cross on 12/08 or maybe 12/09. If you enter $COMPQ for the Nasdaq Composite you can see the death cross about 27 Nov. When the 50 day moving average going up cross the 200 day moving average you have a golden cross which indicates a bull market. There is nothing magic about these crosses, but if enough investors follow them they become true.

Otavio (Tavi) Costa on Twitter “Rallies in the S&P 500 as big or greater than last week accompanied by a rise in US Treasuries only happened 3 times since 2000. All of them proved to be bear market rallies.” 09/28/01, 08/09/02, 11/28/08, and now 11/30/18.

So Fidelity again posted Thursday’s prices on their web site and said they were Friday prices. I called Fidelity and the idiot representative explained that the most current prices on Friday (“as of 12/09/18”) were Thursday’s until it is updated with Friday’s. I disagreed and he explained that to me several more times. I finally asked him why on Friday at 5PM it said “as of 12/08/18” and now it says “as of 12/09/18” and the numbers are the same. He had no answer as I pointed out that YahooFinance had the Friday prices about 6pm and now it was 7pm and Fidelity still had Thursday prices labeled as Friday prices. I suggest he ask the “as of” date be updated AFTER the prices were updated. This has happened before and from now on I will check with YahooFinance to see if Fidelity’s numbers are correct for Fidelity funds! I’ve been investing with Fidelity for over 40 years and have had many good conversations with their representative, but several time a year end up talking to one of their idiots.

SHealthCareServices has a price of 102.14, a sell price 102.85, a rank of 04, and is a sell but Fidelity rules tell me I cannot sell before 12/12. (ETF – IHF, XLV)
At this time I plan to sell SHealthCareServices next weekend and make sure my stoploss is up to date on my ETFs.

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA#1
None
IRA#2
None

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 20% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
5.55 01-07 FSRNX 15.98 RealEstateIndex Yes
5.00 02-10 FSUTX 90.46 SUtilities Yes
4.54 03-05 FRESX 42.86 RealEstateInvestment
3.64 04-26 FSHCX 102.14 SHealthCareServices
3.00 05-09 FIUIX 27.19 TelecomandUtilities Yes
2.77 06-04 FEMEX 9.23 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA) Yes
2.58 07-09 FRIFX 11.85 RealEstateIncome Yes
0.83 08-01 FCONX 10.01 ConservativeIncomeBond
0.55 09-09 FLATX 21.12 LatinAmerica
0.26 10-01 FSAGX 17.18 SGold
0.11 11-08 FPHAX 20.43 SPharmaceuticals
-0.75 12-10 FSTCX 57.09 STelecommunications
-0.89 13-20 FSMEX 50.44 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
-1.00 14-02 FBMPX 75.52 SCommunicationServices
-1.48 15-08 FDFAX 78.63 SConsumerStaples
-1.51 16-05 FSPHX 24.49 SHealthCare
-1.62 17-01 FIREX 10.99 InternationalRealEstate Yes
-1.71 18-01 FCVSX 27.57 ConvertibleSecurities
-2.02 19-04 FDLSX 15.26 SLeisure
-2.39 20-02 FTQGX 21.65 FocusedStock
Last Week
10.06 01-25 FSHCX 108.26 SHealthCareServices
4.40 02-06 FSRNX 15.76 RealEstateIndex
3.82 03-19 FSMEX 52.86 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
3.78 04-08 FLATX 22.29 LatinAmerica
3.33 05-09 FSTCX 59.46 STelecommunications
3.26 06-01 FBMPX 78.81 SMultimedia
3.19 07-04 FSPHX 25.68 SHealthCare
3.07 08-03 FDLSX 16.07 SLeisure
2.95 09-07 FPHAX 21.01 SPharmaceuticals
2.63 10-08 FIUIX 27.05 TelecomandUtilities
2.41 11-09 FSUTX 87.99 SUtilities
2.09 12-03 FEMEX 9.37 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)
2.04 13-03 FSRFX 101.53 STransportation
2.02 14-04 FRESX 41.73 RealEstateInvestment
1.94 15-08 FRIFX 11.76 RealEstateIncome
1.72 16-07 FEXPX 20.38 Export&Multinational
1.68 17-07 FDGFX 28.83 DividendGrowth
1.37 18-02 FSAIX 79.58 SAirTransportation
1.31 19-07 FDFAX 80.92 SConsumerStaples
1.03 20-01 FTQGX 25.62 FocusedStock

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18) from Cash(15Oct18)
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+6% 12m+12% 24m+23% 36m+51% 60m+50% 120m+10%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+2%
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+5% 6m+5% 12m+8% 24m+18% 36m+26% 60m+27% 120m+46%%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%

A good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -221, -467, and now -164 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 05, 00, and now 00.
In reviewing some of the market indicators, SPY (S&P500 ETF) crossed below its 50 day moving average on 12Oct, QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) crossed below its 50 day moving average on 06Oct, IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) crossed below its 50 day moving average on 28Sep, and my sum of all the deviations went negative on 12Oct. They still say do not buy.

Not much interesting news on my podcasts. Most say we are in a bull market and the rest say bear. It sort of reminds me of 2008 when every week you would hear another bank was closed or merged while at the same time the government was saying everything is great. I still feel there was so many crooks ignored in 2008. You can’t have so many banks going out of business for bad/illegal activities and no one went to Jail.

Oct returns for IRA#1 -8%, IRA#2 -9%, QQQ +1%, TQQQ +1%
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 -1%, IRA#2 -5%, QQQ +4%, TQQQ +9%
For the last 6 months, IRA#1 -3%, IRA#2 -4%, QQQ +9%, TQQQ +23%
For the last 12 months, IRA#1 -3%, IRA#2 -4%, QQQ 14%,
portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – 00% invested – Sold in SRetailing(FSRPX) on 10/16
IRA#2 – 00% invested – Sold in SRetailing(FSRPX), SSoftware&ITSvc(FSCSX), SITServices(FBSOX), and SMedTechnology&Devices(FSMEX) on 10/16, Sold STransport(FSRFX) on
QQQ – 100% invested – Purchased PSQ (short QQQ) on 10/26
TQQQ – 100% invested – Purchased SQQQ (short TQQQ) on 10/26
I should have purchased PSQ, and SQQQ earlier but I was not watching the 50 day moving average.
The TQQQ portfolio was started in Feb18 thus no 12 months return yet (but they should be about 3X the QQQ portfolio).
October lived up to its reputation – one of the worst months in the year.

SHealthCareServices has a price of 108.26, a sell price 102.85, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – IHF, XLV)
It sure would be nice if the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board came out every Wednesday and changed one word in his speech, making the market go up like his did this week.

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA#1
None
IRA#2
None

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 20% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
10.06 01-25 FSHCX 108.26 SHealthCareServices
4.40 02-06 FSRNX 15.76 RealEstateIndex
3.82 03-19 FSMEX 52.86 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
3.78 04-08 FLATX 22.29 LatinAmerica
3.33 05-09 FSTCX 59.46 STelecommunications
3.26 06-01 FBMPX 78.81 SMultimedia
3.19 07-04 FSPHX 25.68 SHealthCare
3.07 08-03 FDLSX 16.07 SLeisure
2.95 09-07 FPHAX 21.01 SPharmaceuticals
2.63 10-08 FIUIX 27.05 TelecomandUtilities
2.41 11-09 FSUTX 87.99 SUtilities
2.09 12-03 FEMEX 9.37 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)
2.04 13-03 FSRFX 101.53 STransportation
2.02 14-04 FRESX 41.73 RealEstateInvestment
1.94 15-08 FRIFX 11.76 RealEstateIncome
1.72 16-07 FEXPX 20.38 Export&Multinational
1.68 17-07 FDGFX 28.83 DividendGrowth
1.37 18-02 FSAIX 79.58 SAirTransportation
1.31 19-07 FDFAX 80.92 SConsumerStaples
1.03 20-01 FTQGX 25.62 FocusedStock
Last Week
4.20 01-24 FSHCX 101.96 SHealthCareServices
3.18 02-05 FSRNX 15.54 RealEstateIndex
2.13 03-03 FRESX 41.73 RealEstateInvestment
1.87 04-07 FRIFX 11.74 RealEstateIncome
1.16 05-08 FSUTX 86.81 SUtilities
1.11 06-02 FCONX 10.03 ConservativeIncomeBond
0.82 07-07 FLATX 21.61 LatinAmerica
0.66 08-06 FPHAX 20.51 SPharmaceuticals
0.53 09-07 FIUIX 26.46 TelecomandUtilities
0.30 10-08 FSTCX 57.62 STelecommunications
-0.25 11-06 FDFAX 79.62 SConsumerStaples
-0.53 12-02 FEMEX 9.12 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)
-0.87 13-02 FDLSX 15.43 SLeisure
-1.11 14-18 FSMEX 50.25 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
-1.19 15-01 FSPCX 65.06 SInsurance
-1.29 16-06 FEXPX 19.76 Export&Multinational
-1.30 17-06 FDGFX 27.96 DividendGrowth
-1.33 18-02 FSRFX 98.08 STransportation
-1.39 19-03 FSPHX 24.50 SHealthCare
-1.39 20-01 FSAIX 77.36 SAirTransportationityIndex

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18) from Cash(15Oct18)
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+6% 12m+12% 24m+23% 36m+51% 60m+50% 120m+10%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+2%
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+5% 6m+5% 12m+8% 24m+18% 36m+26% 60m+27% 120m+46%%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%