Month: November 2018

Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -106, -221, and now -467 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 82, 05, and now 00.
The inclusion of a bond fund (#06) in my top 20 funds is a sign all other funds are not doing well.
Only 10 of the 100 I follow have a positive deviation.

From a Tweet by Zerohedge “…from the other side of the bet is Morgan Stanley’s bearish chief equity strategist, Michael Wilson, whose year end price target on the S&P is 2,750, the lowest of all Wall Street strategists whose average prediction is that the S&P will close above the record high of 2,930.75 hit in September and who warns again that ‘If it Looks like a Bear and Trades Like a Bear, Stop Trading it Like a Bull’, and then just in case he wasn’t clear, explains ‘We are in a Bear market.'”

One of the more interesting podcast I heard was one of the nightly Vertical Research Advisory reports. They pointed out the record number of Federal Reserve rate increases in a row was 17. The Fed started raising the rate in 2004 and ended in 2006. Those contributed a lot to the 2007 bad market and especially the 2008 disaster. In December the Fed is scheduled to raise the federal funds rate for the 9th straight time.

SHealthCareServices has a price of 101.96, a sell price 99.58, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – IHF, XLV)
So I purchased FSHCX  and am down 4.11% since I purchase it and Fidelity will yell at me if I sell it before 12Dec. The two ETFs showed a net 3.51% loss.
This was one of my worst purchases. In reviewing some of the market indicators, SPY (S&P500 ETF) crossed below its 50 day moving average on 12Oct, QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) crossed below its 50 day moving average on 06Oct, and IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) crossed below its 50 day moving average on 28Sep. Even my sum of all the deviations went negative on 12Oct. From now on I am going to include considerations of this indicators into my buying decision. Hopefully it will keep from making a buy error like my latest purchases.

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA#1
None
IRA#2
None

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 20% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
4.20 01-24 FSHCX 101.96 SHealthCareServices
3.18 02-05 FSRNX 15.54 RealEstateIndex
2.13 03-03 FRESX 41.73 RealEstateInvestment
1.87 04-07 FRIFX 11.74 RealEstateIncome
1.16 05-08 FSUTX 86.81 SUtilities
1.11 06-02 FCONX 10.03 ConservativeIncomeBond
0.82 07-07 FLATX 21.61 LatinAmerica
0.66 08-06 FPHAX 20.51 SPharmaceuticals
0.53 09-07 FIUIX 26.46 TelecomandUtilities
0.30 10-08 FSTCX 57.62 STelecommunications
-0.25 11-06 FDFAX 79.62 SConsumerStaples
-0.53 12-02 FEMEX 9.12 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)
-0.87 13-02 FDLSX 15.43 SLeisure
-1.11 14-18 FSMEX 50.25 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
-1.19 15-01 FSPCX 65.06 SInsurance
-1.29 16-06 FEXPX 19.76 Export&Multinational
-1.30 17-06 FDGFX 27.96 DividendGrowth
-1.33 18-02 FSRFX 98.08 STransportation
-1.39 19-03 FSPHX 24.50 SHealthCare
-1.39 20-01 FSAIX 77.36 SAirTransportation
Last Week
7.37 01-23 FSHCX 104.82 SHealthCareServices
5.25 02-06 FLATX 22.55 LatinAmerica
4.22 03-04 FSRNX 15.67 RealEstateIndex
3.08 04-02 FRESX 42.07 RealEstateInvestment Yes
2.97 05-07 FSUTX 88.31 SUtilities
2.77 06-06 FIUIX 27.04 TelecomandUtilities
2.51 07-07 FSTCX 58.88 STelecommunications
2.45 08-17 FSMEX 52.09 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
2.43 09-06 FBMPX 78.11 SMultimedia
2.41 10-06 FRIFX 11.79 RealEstateIncome
2.23 11-05 FDFAX 81.61 SConsumerStaples
2.02 12-05 FPHAX 20.78 SPharmaceuticals
1.59 13-05 FDGFX 28.80 DividendGrowth
1.59 14-05 FEXPX 20.35 Export&Multinational
1.17 15-01 FCONX 10.03 ConservativeIncomeBond
1.08 16-23 FSPHX 25.13 SHealthCare
1.01 17-01 FDLSX 15.73 SLeisure Yes
0.75 18-01 FEMEX 9.24 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)
0.42 19-01 FSRFX 99.89 STransportation Yes
0.41 20-01 FITLX 11.71 U.S.SustainabliityIndex

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18) from Cash(15Oct18)
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+6% 12m+12% 24m+23% 36m+51% 60m+50% 120m+10%
Aug18 1m+6% 3m+1% 6m+4% 12m+12% 24m+22% 36m+49% 60m+57% 120m+9%
Average annual return since 1/82 12%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+5% 6m+5% 12m+8% 24m+18% 36m+26% 60m+27% 120m+46%
Aug18 1m+4% 3m+4% 6m+4% 12m+7% 24m+18% 36m+25% 60m+29% 120m+44%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -213, -106, and now -221 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 02, 82, and now 05.
The inclusion of a bond fund (#15) in my top 20 funds is a sign all other funds are not doing well.

The market has been up between midterm elections and year end for the last 18 midterm elections. The period from November through April is the best 6 months in the year. Additionally, the year following the midterm elections is generally an up year.

The IRS offers webinars of various topics which I watch to get the CPE credits and sometimes learn something. One I thought was interesting was on the Virtual Currency. The recording of that webinar is availabe at https://www.irsvideos.gov/Individual/Resources/UnderstandingBasicsVirtualCurrency   There are somewhere near 2000 virtual currencies. Bitcoin was priced at about 19K last December and now is about 5K. I had a small gain in GBTC – Bitcoin Investment Trust – earlier in the year. The SEC is still considering the applications for an ETF which would own a couple of virtual currencies.

An interesting story on savings and retirement from CNBC – https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/09/couple-who-retired-early-with-over-1-million-living-their-best-lives.html

SHealthCareServices has a price of 104.82, a sell price 99.58, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – IHF, XLV)
So I purchased FSHCX at the Monday close and am down 1.42% for the week. The two ETFs showed a net 1.46% loss. Not much difference between ETF and mutual fund performance. Not the best weeks I’ve had.

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA#1
None
IRA#2
None

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 20% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
7.37 01-23 FSHCX 104.82 SHealthCareServices
5.25 02-06 FLATX 22.55 LatinAmerica
4.22 03-04 FSRNX 15.67 RealEstateIndex
3.08 04-02 FRESX 42.07 RealEstateInvestment Yes
2.97 05-07 FSUTX 88.31 SUtilities
2.77 06-06 FIUIX 27.04 TelecomandUtilities
2.51 07-07 FSTCX 58.88 STelecommunications
2.45 08-17 FSMEX 52.09 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
2.43 09-06 FBMPX 78.11 SMultimedia
2.41 10-06 FRIFX 11.79 RealEstateIncome
2.23 11-05 FDFAX 81.61 SConsumerStaples
2.02 12-05 FPHAX 20.78 SPharmaceuticals
1.59 13-05 FDGFX 28.80 DividendGrowth
1.59 14-05 FEXPX 20.35 Export&Multinational
1.17 15-01 FCONX 10.03 ConservativeIncomeBond
1.08 16-23 FSPHX 25.13 SHealthCare
1.01 17-01 FDLSX 15.73 SLeisure Yes
0.75 18-01 FEMEX 9.24 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)
0.42 19-01 FSRFX 99.89 STransportation Yes
0.41 20-01 FITLX 11.71 U.S.SustainabliityIndex
Last Week
10.35 01-22 FSHCX 107.32 SHealthCareServices Yes
4.59 02-06 FSUTX 89.56 SUtilities Yes
4.38 03-16 FSMEX 53.00 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices Yes
4.31 04-03 FSRNX 15.65 RealEstateIndex Yes
3.72 05-05 FIUIX 27.25 TelecomandUtilities Yes
3.67 06-05 FBMPX 78.95 SMultimedia Yes
3.55 07-22 FSPHX 25.73 SHealthCare Yes
3.31 08-04 FPHAX 21.02 SPharmaceuticals Yes
3.23 09-04 FDFAX 82.31 SConsumerStaples Yes
2.98 10-01 FRESX 41.96 RealEstateInvestment Yes
2.80 11-05 FRIFX 11.82 RealEstateIncome Yes
2.77 12-04 FEXPX 20.57 Export&Multinational Yes
2.77 13-04 FDGFX 29.11 DividendGrowth Yes
2.73 14-02 FSRPX 15.48 SRetailing Yes
2.64 15-05 FLATX 21.93 LatinAmerica
2.46 16-02 FSDCX 38.42 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
2.24 17-01 FTQGX 25.96 FocusedStock Yes
2.09 18-06 FSTCX 58.56 STelecommunications
1.92 19-01 FSPCX 67.14 SInsurance Yes
1.87 20-01 FLCEX 15.63 LargeCapCoreEnhancedIndex Yes

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18) from Cash(15Oct18)
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+6% 12m+12% 24m+23% 36m+51% 60m+50% 120m+10%
Aug18 1m+6% 3m+1% 6m+4% 12m+12% 24m+22% 36m+49% 60m+57% 120m+9%
Average annual return since 1/82 12%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+5% 6m+5% 12m+8% 24m+18% 36m+26% 60m+27% 120m+46%
Aug18 1m+4% 3m+4% 6m+4% 12m+7% 24m+18% 36m+25% 60m+29% 120m+44%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

A good week, a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -493, -213, and now -106 – up 2 weeks in a row – buy.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 01, 02, and now 82.

This last week we had the 8th largest point gain for the DJIA in history and two weeks earlier the 14th largest point loss out of the top 20 gains and losses. Three of the largest gains and losses have taken place over the last month. The 4th through 7th largest gains took place this year during Feb through Apr and the 4th through 8th losses. Every loss during those periods were greater than the corresponding gain. The 7 gains are the only ones since 2015 and the 8 losses are the only ones since 2016. If you review the gains and losses based on a percentage basis, no losses or gains since 2008 make the top 20 list.

Do not get excited by large daily gains. Gains are nice to have except the losses greater. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average

Every now and then I see a report claiming that if you were not fully invested all the time you would have missed the best gains over the last 10, 20, … years. The reports are correct but they never point out the best gains happen about the same time the greatest losses happen. Just remember when you see a record up move it is possibly happening because the market is going down and it was just a bounce.

The IRS offers webinars of various topics which I watch to get the CPE credits and sometimes learn something. One I thought was interesting was on the DarkWeb. The recording of that webinar is availabe at https://www.irsvideos.gov/Individual/ScamsFraud/UnderstandingBasicsDarkWeb

SHealthCareServices has a price of 107.32, a sell price TBD, a rank of 01, and is a buy. (ETF – IHF, XLV)
I am not convinced the market is going up, do not know if it is going down. However Nov through Apr is the growth season and the numbers say buy. All in a all an unnerving time to buy.

My investment changes this weekend.
IRA#1
Invest 100% in SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)
IRA#2
Invest 20% in SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)
Also my ETF accounts are investing 10% in IHF and 10% in XLV. After market close I will put in stop loss orders.

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 20% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
10.35 01-22 FSHCX 107.32 SHealthCareServices Yes
4.59 02-06 FSUTX 89.56 SUtilities Yes
4.38 03-16 FSMEX 53.00 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices Yes
4.31 04-03 FSRNX 15.65 RealEstateIndex Yes
3.72 05-05 FIUIX 27.25 TelecomandUtilities Yes
3.67 06-05 FBMPX 78.95 SMultimedia Yes
3.55 07-22 FSPHX 25.73 SHealthCare Yes
3.31 08-04 FPHAX 21.02 SPharmaceuticals Yes
3.23 09-04 FDFAX 82.31 SConsumerStaples Yes
2.98 10-01 FRESX 41.96 RealEstateInvestment Yes
2.80 11-05 FRIFX 11.82 RealEstateIncome Yes
2.77 12-04 FEXPX 20.57 Export&Multinational Yes
2.77 13-04 FDGFX 29.11 DividendGrowth Yes
2.73 14-02 FSRPX 15.48 SRetailing Yes
2.64 15-05 FLATX 21.93 LatinAmerica
2.46 16-02 FSDCX 38.42 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
2.24 17-01 FTQGX 25.96 FocusedStock Yes
2.09 18-06 FSTCX 58.56 STelecommunications
1.92 19-01 FSPCX 67.14 SInsurance Yes
1.87 20-01 FLCEX 15.63 LargeCapCoreEnhancedIndex Yes
Last Week
5.79 01-21 FSHCX 102.32 SHealthCareServices
5.22 02-04 FLATX 22.45 LatinAmerica Yes
2.88 03-05 FSUTX 87.88 SUtilities
2.87 04-05 FSTCX 58.94 STelecommunications
2.76 05-04 FBMPX 78.11 SMultimedia
2.70 06-04 FIUIX 26.93 TelecomandUtilities
1.91 07-03 FDFAX 81.12 SConsumerStaples
1.76 08-01 FSDCX 38.11 SCommunicationsEquipment
1.73 09-04 FRIFX 11.68 RealEstateIncome
1.64 10-15 FSMEX 51.49 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
1.36 11-21 FSPHX 25.14 SHealthCare
1.28 12-04 FCONX 10.03 ConservativeIncomeBond
1.02 13-01 FSRPX 15.20 SRetailing
0.68 14-03 FPHAX 20.45 SPharmaceuticals
0.66 15-04 FWRLX 10.27 SWireless
0.52 16-03 FDGFX 28.43 DividendGrowth
0.51 17-02 FRXIX 15.04 RealEstateIndex – Inv
0.47 18-03 FEXPX 20.08 Export&Multinational
0.36 19-01 FEMEX 9.20 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)
0.08 20-04 FGRTX 16.18 MegaCapStock

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18) from Cash(15Oct18)
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+6% 12m+12% 24m+23% 36m+51% 60m+50% 120m+10%
Aug18 1m+6% 3m+1% 6m+4% 12m+12% 24m+22% 36m+49% 60m+57% 120m+9%
Average annual return since 1/82 12%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+5% 6m+5% 12m+8% 24m+18% 36m+26% 60m+27% 120m+46%
Aug18 1m+4% 3m+4% 6m+4% 12m+7% 24m+18% 36m+25% 60m+29% 120m+44%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

A sort of good week, a good week. The sum of all the deviations has been -155, -493, and now -213 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 00, 01, and now 02.

Fidelity sent out an email on year end tax moves. https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/personal-finance/2018-year-end-tax-plans-to-catch-up-on?

I had a discussion on selling vs holding when the market falls. His point was it will come back. My point was that 1. I do not want to lose more money, and 2. bear market math. Bear market math can be illustrated by looking at Caterpillar Inc. (CAT). In January CAT was trading at 158. In October it was trading at 112. That represents a 33% drop in price. In order to get back to 168 from 112, CAT has to make a 50% gain. Not a lot of 50% gains. A year ago General Electric Company (GE) was selling at 20. Now it is at 10. To get back to 20 from 10 GE has to go up 100%. Not a lot of 100% gains.

IRA#1
None
IRA#2
None

My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
5.79 01-21 FSHCX 102.32 SHealthCareServices
5.22 02-04 FLATX 22.45 LatinAmerica Yes
2.88 03-05 FSUTX 87.88 SUtilities
2.87 04-05 FSTCX 58.94 STelecommunications
2.76 05-04 FBMPX 78.11 SMultimedia
2.70 06-04 FIUIX 26.93 TelecomandUtilities
1.91 07-03 FDFAX 81.12 SConsumerStaples
1.76 08-01 FSDCX 38.11 SCommunicationsEquipment
1.73 09-04 FRIFX 11.68 RealEstateIncome
1.64 10-15 FSMEX 51.49 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
1.36 11-21 FSPHX 25.14 SHealthCare
1.28 12-04 FCONX 10.03 ConservativeIncomeBond
1.02 13-01 FSRPX 15.20 SRetailing
0.68 14-03 FPHAX 20.45 SPharmaceuticals
0.66 15-04 FWRLX 10.27 SWireless
0.52 16-03 FDGFX 28.43 DividendGrowth
0.51 17-02 FRXIX 15.04 RealEstateIndex – Inv
0.47 18-03 FEXPX 20.08 Export&Multinational
0.36 19-01 FEMEX 9.20 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)
0.08 20-04 FGRTX 16.18 MegaCapStock
Last Week
5.08 01-03 FLATX 22.36 LatinAmerica
3.77 02-20 FSHCX 100.06 SHealthCareServices
2.45 03-04 FSUTX 87.38 SUtilities
1.56 04-03 FRIFX 11.65 RealEstateIncome
1.34 05-03 FCONX 10.03 ConservativeIncomeBond
0.63 06-03 FIUIX 26.35 TelecomandUtilities
0.44 07-01 FRXIX 15.03 RealEstateIndex – Inv
-0.51 08-02 FDFAX 79.11 SConsumerStaples
-0.81 09-01 FRESX 40.37 RealEstateInvestment
-1.10 10-14 FSMEX 50.06 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
-1.17 11-03 FBMPX 75.01 SMultimedia
-1.35 12-04 FSTCX 56.44 STelecommunications
-1.43 13-42 FBSOX 60.22 SITServices
-1.56 14-29 FTQGX 24.97 FocusedStock
-1.79 15-02 FPHAX 19.94 SPharmaceuticals
-1.87 16-20 FSPHX 24.32 SHealthCare
-1.95 17-03 FWRLX 10.00 SWireless
-2.01 18-03 FGRTX 15.84 MegaCapStock
-2.07 19-02 FDGFX 27.69 DividendGrowth
-2.16 20-02 FEXPX 19.55 Export&Multinational

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+6% 12m+12% 24m+23% 36m+51% 60m+50% 120m+10%
Aug18 1m+6% 3m+1% 6m+4% 12m+12% 24m+22% 36m+49% 60m+57% 120m+9%
Average annual return since 1/82 12%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SITServices(FBSOX)(14May18)
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+5% 6m+5% 12m+8% 24m+18% 36m+26% 60m+27% 120m+46%
Aug18 1m+4% 3m+4% 6m+4% 12m+7% 24m+18% 36m+25% 60m+29% 120m+44%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%