A bad week, a real bad, bad week. The sum of all the deviations has been -157, -155, and now -493 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 00, 00, and now 01.
After the sale of STransportation, I will only have a small investment in HRB (employee stock purchase plan), a small investment PSQ (ETF which is short the QQQ – NASDAQ 100), and SQQQ (ETF which is short the TQQQ – triple the NASDAQ 100).
Those two ETFs are so volitable I am afraid to buy too much. PSQ is up 10.73% and SQQQ is up 31.87% over the last month. SQQQ had a 13% drop on Thursday – they are both volatile and thus I am using their 50 day moving average for a stop loss price.
Sep returns for IRA#1 +1%, IRA#2 +1%, QQQ -3%, TQQQ -8%
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 +6%, IRA#2 +5%, QQQ +6%, TQQQ +17%
For the last 6 months, IRA#1 +6%, IRA#2 +5%, QQQ +8%, TQQQ +22%
For the last 12 months, IRA#1 +12%, IRA#2 +8%, QQQ 18%,
portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – 100% invested – Invested in SRetailing(FSRPX)
IRA#2 – 100% invested – Purchased SMedicalTechnologyandDevices 09/05, STransportation 09/25 – Invested in SITServices(FBSOX), SRetailing(FSRPX), SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX), SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX), STransportation(FSRFX)
QQQ – 00% invested – Sold QQQ on 09/26 – Invested in Cash
TQQQ – 00% invested – Sold TQQQ on 09/26 – Invested in Cash
The TQQQ portfolio was started in Feb18 thus no 12 months return yet (but they should be about 3X the QQQ portfolio).
I listened to a regular quarterly conference call on a review of the financial markets by the Atlantic Group of BB&T in Wednesday. Like all presentations on markets they suggest based on historical data the latest decline was not much. If fact if you had invested as they suggest in one of their portfolios, you missed the technology growth of the past but would be down only a little now. I had a personal conference with one of their representatives about a year ago. I asked how they protect against a market decline. He said they only invest in things which do not go down very much. My view has always been if something is going down, get out. I do not want to pay a management fee to lose money,
I watched an Investors Business Daily (IBD) webinar where IBD discussed three ETFs which had been set up to match the IBD stock tables. The FFTY ETF follows the IBD 50 index. The LDRS ETF follows the IBD ETF Leaders Index. The BOUT ETF follows the IBD Breakout Stock Index. All their indexes have done well, but I disagree with their conclusion that since the EFTs automatically adjust their portfolios to the best performing stocks, they should be held and not sold. My take would be to sell if they cross their respectively 50 day moving average. While they are in the tank now, along with everything else, when this decline ends they should do well. The archived webinar can be found at ttps://www.investors.com/videos/learn-how-ibd-identifies-breakout-stocks/
IRA#1
None
IRA#2
STransportation has a price of 94.30, a sell price 101.50, a rank of 56, and is a sell. (ETF – IYT stopped out 04Oct, XTN stopped out on 01Oct)
STransportation has finally been held for more that 30 days and Fidelity will not have a fit when I sell it.
My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell STransportation
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
5.08 01-03 FLATX 22.36 LatinAmerica
3.77 02-20 FSHCX 100.06 SHealthCareServices
2.45 03-04 FSUTX 87.38 SUtilities
1.56 04-03 FRIFX 11.65 RealEstateIncome
1.34 05-03 FCONX 10.03 ConservativeIncomeBond
0.63 06-03 FIUIX 26.35 TelecomandUtilities
0.44 07-01 FRXIX 15.03 RealEstateIndex – Inv
-0.51 08-02 FDFAX 79.11 SConsumerStaples
-0.81 09-01 FRESX 40.37 RealEstateInvestment
-1.10 10-14 FSMEX 50.06 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
-1.17 11-03 FBMPX 75.01 SMultimedia
-1.35 12-04 FSTCX 56.44 STelecommunications
-1.43 13-42 FBSOX 60.22 SITServices
-1.56 14-29 FTQGX 24.97 FocusedStock
-1.79 15-02 FPHAX 19.94 SPharmaceuticals
-1.87 16-20 FSPHX 24.32 SHealthCare
-1.95 17-03 FWRLX 10.00 SWireless
-2.01 18-03 FGRTX 15.84 MegaCapStock
-2.07 19-02 FDGFX 27.69 DividendGrowth
-2.16 20-02 FEXPX 19.55 Export&Multinational
Last Week
8.41 01-19 FSHCX 104.33 SHealthCareServices
6.07 02-03 FSUTX 90.35 SUtilities
5.06 03-02 FIUIX 27.50 TelecomandUtilities
4.56 04-03 FSTCX 59.86 STelecommunications
2.74 07-01 FPHAX 20.88 SPharmaceuticals
3.76 07-02 FBMPX 78.80 SMultimedia
3.58 08-02 FLATX 21.98 LatinAmerica
2.67 08-19 FSPHX 25.47 SHealthCare
2.65 09-02 FWRLX 10.48 SWireless
2.58 10-13 FSMEX 51.95 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
2.22 11-41 FBSOX 62.50 SITServices
1.91 12-02 FRIFX 11.68 RealEstateIncome
1.67 13-28 FTQGX 25.81 FocusedStock
1.65 14-02 FGRTX 16.45 MegaCapStock
1.49 15-01 FDGFX 28.73 DividendGrowth
1.49 16-06 FDCPX 96.76 SComputers
1.48 17-01 FEXPX 20.30 Export&Multinational
1.41 18-02 FCONX 10.03 ConservativeIncomeBond
1.40 19-01 FDFAX 80.65 SConsumerStaples
1.22 20-01 FGRIX 38.59 Growth&Income
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+6% 12m+12% 24m+23% 36m+51% 60m+50% 120m+10%
Aug18 1m+6% 3m+1% 6m+4% 12m+12% 24m+22% 36m+49% 60m+57% 120m+9%
Average annual return since 1/82 12%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SITServices(FBSOX)(14May18)
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+5% 6m+5% 12m+8% 24m+18% 36m+26% 60m+27% 120m+46%
Aug18 1m+4% 3m+4% 6m+4% 12m+7% 24m+18% 36m+25% 60m+29% 120m+44%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%