May 2018 – FlynnDJ.com

25 May 2018

Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 511, 478, and now 453 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 37, 30, and now 8.

April returns for IRA#1 +1%, IRA#2 +0%, QQQ +0%, SPY/RSP +0%
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 -5%, IRA#2 -4%, QQQ -6%, SPY/RSP -7%
For the last 6 months, IRA#1 -0%, IRA#2 -0%, QQQ 5%, SPY/RSP 2%
For the last 12 months, IRA#1 21%, IRA#2 7%, QQQ 17%, SPY/RSP 8%
portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – SEnergy(FSENX)(23Apr18) 100% invested
IRA#2 – SEnergy(FSENX)(23Apr18) 20% invested
QQQ – 0% invested
SPY/RSP – 0% invested
In April the market looked like it may be turning up and I purchased SEnergy.

On a topic unrelated to investing, I purchased some solar panels last year. My FPL billing month ended on 11May and last month I gave FPL more kilowatt hours than I received. My latest calculations indicate the panels should pay for themselves in less than 10 years. On my website, flynndj.com/solar.htm, more details are available – give them a call.

None of the ETFs I own have been sold based on a 7% stop loss order. The IEO and PXI (oil related) ETFs are nearing their stop loss sell limit but not there yet.

IRA#1
SEnergy has a price of 47.53, a sell price 47.48, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – IEO, PXI)
IRA#2
SEnergy has a price of 47.53 a sell price 47.48, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – IEO, PXI)
SITServices has a price of 59.74, a sell price 57.34, a rank of 07, and is a hold. (ETF – XWEB, XITK)
SEnergy is 0.1% above its sell price after going down this week and it it continues to decline, next weekend it will be a sell. I am still 1% above my purchase price.

My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SEnergy(FSENX)(23Apr18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18)
Mar18 1m+0% 3m-1% 6m+6% 12m+21% 24m+53% 36m+7% 60m+64% 120m+11%
Feb18 1m-6% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+13% 24m+53% 36m+13% 60m+79% 120m+11%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(14May18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18)
20% – SEnergy(FSENX)(23Apr18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(02Apr18) from EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(FEMEX)(29Jan18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(26Mar18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jan18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(05Mar18) from SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement(FSLBX)(22Jan18)
Mar18 1m-1% 3m-1% 6m+2% 12m+7% 24m+26% 36m+14% 60m+23% 120m+38%
Feb18 1m-4% 3m-1% 6m+3% 12m+6% 24m+28% 36m+17% 60m+29% 120m+39%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

18 May 2018

Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 306, 511, and now 478 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 15, 37, and now 30.

There is a show on TV network RT called the Keiser Report featuring Max Keiser. Mr. Keiser is very outspoken in his views, but he presented an analysis of the 2008/9 recession which was quite interesting. The recession was caused by the big banks leveraging themselves and creating junk securities called collateralized debt obligations. The victims of this recession were the millions who lost their jobs and their homes. So what did the government do – it spend billions savings the perpetrators of this crisis and ignoring the victims. Then with quantitative easing, continued to help the banks and hurt the savers. And what have the banks done since being saved – they have borrowed and releveraged themselves to an extent greater than before.

The rise in US interest rates is putting pressure on stock markets, especially those markets in emerging countries. The Argentina peso is down 17% over the last month and the Argentina stock market is down 12%. Obviously a recession is some countries is here and the higher the FED raises US interest rates the worse it will get. Not a good sign for the stock market.

IRA#1
SEnergy has a price of 49.98, a sell price 47.48, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – IEO, PXI)
IRA#2
SEnergy has a price of 49.98, a sell price 47.48, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – IEO, PXI)
SITServices has a price of 59.94, a sell price 57.34, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – XWEB, XITK)

My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
16.29 01-06 FSENX 49.98 SEnergy Yes
10.72 02-14 FCPGX 27.98 SmallCapGrowth Yes
10.59 03-07 FFGCX 14.15 GlobalCommodityStock Yes
10.04 04-27 FSRPX 14.52 SRetailing
9.95 05-18 FBSOX 59.94 SITServices
9.33 06-17 FSCSX 18.02 SSoftware&ITServices
8.60 07-16 FSPTX 178.73 STechnology
8.50 08-03 FSELX 11.36 SSemiconductors Yes
8.44 09-03 FOCPX 12.03 OTCPortfolio
8.38 10-06 FTQGX 24.89 FocusedStock
8.01 11-01 FSPHX 243.21 SHealthCare Yes
7.98 12-04 FDCAX 38.11 CapitalAppreciation
7.94 13-01 FSESX 50.20 SEnergyService Yes
7.91 14-06 FBGRX 95.31 BlueChipGrowth
7.69 15-01 FSSPX 21.60 SmallCapIndex – IC Yes
7.62 16-15 FSDCX 37.35 SCommunicationsEquipment
7.24 17-01 FCPEX 14.41 SmallCapEnhancedIndex Yes
7.23 18-05 FCNTX 130.50 Contrafund
6.87 19-02 FTRNX 104.75 Trend
6.87 20-01 FSDAX 174.84 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
last week:
13.66 01-05 FSENX 48.43 SEnergy Yes
11.30 02-17 FBSOX 60.36 SITServices Yes
11.13 03-16 FSCSX 18.23 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
10.86 04-26 FSRPX 14.55 SRetailing
10.31 05-15 FSPTX 180.72 STechnology Yes
10.00 06-13 FCPGX 27.64 SmallCapGrowth Yes
9.95 07-06 FFGCX 13.99 GlobalCommodityStock
9.85 08-14 FSDCX 37.97 SCommunicationsEquipment
9.67 09-02 FOCPX 12.11 OTCPortfolio Yes
9.51 10-05 FTQGX 25.04 FocusedStock Yes
9.06 11-05 FBGRX 95.93 BlueChipGrowth Yes
8.66 12-03 FDCAX 38.19 CapitalAppreciation Yes
8.41 13-04 FCNTX 131.44 Contrafund Yes
8.12 14-02 FSELX 11.27 SSemiconductors Yes
7.85 15-02 FDSVX 35.56 Growth Discovery Yes
7.65 16-01 FTRNX 105.13 Trend Yes
7.49 17-02 FDCPX 94.75 SComputers Yes
7.44 18-02 FNCMX 97.39 NasdaqCompositeIndex Yes
7.24 19-01 FSUIX 14.19 LargeCapGrowthIndex – Inv Yes
6.98 20-01 FWWFX 28.21 Worldwide Yes

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SEnergy(FSENX)(23Apr18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18)
Mar18 1m+0% 3m-1% 6m+6% 12m+21% 24m+53% 36m+7% 60m+64% 120m+11%
Feb18 1m-6% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+13% 24m+53% 36m+13% 60m+79% 120m+11%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(14May18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18)
20% – SEnergy(FSENX)(23Apr18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(02Apr18) from EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(FEMEX)(29Jan18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(26Mar18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jan18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(05Mar18) from SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement(FSLBX)(22Jan18)
Mar18 1m-1% 3m-1% 6m+2% 12m+7% 24m+26% 36m+14% 60m+23% 120m+38%
Feb18 1m-4% 3m-1% 6m+3% 12m+6% 24m+28% 36m+17% 60m+29% 120m+39%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

11 May 2018

A good week, a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 307, 306, and now 511 – not up 2 weeks in a row but the previous two weeks are so close, I’m going to buy.
Each week I delete the lowest performing fund and add another fund based on last month’s performance. This tends to distort the exactness of the sum of all deviations.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 13, 5, and now 37.

The website https://wishingwealthblog.com/ produces a weekly, free email which provides some indicators of what the author thinks the market is doing. On their 04May post received on 06May their General Market Index(s) was a bullish 4 out of 6 indicators (4/6 – GMI) and was 7 out of 8 indicators (7/8 – GMI2). The email also presented two charts with a short discussion. The SPY (S&P500 ETF) is up against its descending down-trend and still below its 30 and 10 week averages – bearish. The QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is holding above its rising 30 and 10 week average – bullish. Not a strong view of a market trend.

This week the Fidelity’s list of fund prices indicated in the title it was updated for today prices at about 6pm. However until about 7:30pm the numbers were yesterdays. Be careful in looking at Fidelity’s website. They to not seen be too concerned about accuracy.

You still have time to sign up for Kaltbaum’s free (for a month) email service. Name, phone, and email address to gkaltbaum@kaltbaum.net. It may make you some money. Wednesday on his show the had Jim Rohrbach of investment-models.com. He said his numbers got him out of the end of January and back in Wednesday. He will sent you a free month of his biweekly report if you send him an email requesting it.

IRA#1
SEnergy has a price of 48.43, a sell price 46.01, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – IEO, PXI)
IRA#2
SEnergy has a price of 48.43, a sell price 46.01, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – IEO, PXI)
SITServices has a price of 60.36, a sell price TBD, a rank of 02, and is a Buy. (ETF – XWEB, XITK)

My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Invest 20% in FBSOX – SITServices

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
13.66 01-05 FSENX 48.43 SEnergy Yes
11.30 02-17 FBSOX 60.36 SITServices Yes
11.13 03-16 FSCSX 18.23 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
10.86 04-26 FSRPX 14.55 SRetailing
10.31 05-15 FSPTX 180.72 STechnology Yes
10.00 06-13 FCPGX 27.64 SmallCapGrowth Yes
9.95 07-06 FFGCX 13.99 GlobalCommodityStock
9.85 08-14 FSDCX 37.97 SCommunicationsEquipment
9.67 09-02 FOCPX 12.11 OTCPortfolio Yes
9.51 10-05 FTQGX 25.04 FocusedStock Yes
9.06 11-05 FBGRX 95.93 BlueChipGrowth Yes
8.66 12-03 FDCAX 38.19 CapitalAppreciation Yes
8.41 13-04 FCNTX 131.44 Contrafund Yes
8.12 14-02 FSELX 11.27 SSemiconductors Yes
7.85 15-02 FDSVX 35.56 Growth Discovery Yes
7.65 16-01 FTRNX 105.13 Trend Yes
7.49 17-02 FDCPX 94.75 SComputers Yes
7.44 18-02 FNCMX 97.39 NasdaqCompositeIndex Yes
7.24 19-01 FSUIX 14.19 LargeCapGrowthIndex – Inv Yes
6.98 20-01 FWWFX 28.21 Worldwide Yes
last week:
11.95 01-04 FSENX 47.36 SEnergy
10.49 02-25 FSRPX 144.20 SRetailing
9.35 03-16 FBSOX 58.95 SITServices
8.05 04-15 FSCSX 176.18 SSoftware&ITServices
7.92 05-13 FSDCX 37.11 SCommunicationsEquipment
7.09 06-14 FSPTX 174.49 STechnology
6.98 07-05 FFGCX 13.54 GlobalCommodityStock
6.90 08-12 FCPGX 26.72 SmallCapGrowth
6.53 09-01 FOCPX 117.05 OTCPortfolio
6.45 10-04 FBGRX 93.19 BlueChipGrowth
6.10 11-03 FSCPX 43.00 SConsumerDiscretionary
6.02 12-04 FTQGX 24.12 FocusedStock
5.58 13-01 FSELX 109.58 SSemiconductors
5.46 14-03 FCNTX 127.29 Contrafund
5.35 15-02 FDCAX 36.86 CapitalAppreciation
5.31 16-01 FDCPX 92.47 SComputers
5.29 17-07 FSCOX 20.05 InternationalSmallCapOpportunitiesS
5.19 18-01 FDSVX 34.54 Growth Discovery
5.09 19-07 FCONX 10.04 ConservativeIncomeBond
4.99 20-01 FNCMX 94.80 NasdaqCompositeIndex

04 May 2018

Not a good week, a do nothing week. The sum of all the deviations has been 367, 314, and now 306 – not up two weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 67, 13, and now 6.
Another not exciting week and not a buy week so I am buying nothing, selling nothing.

Last weekend I called Fidelity because the distributions were not reported and I had to check the individual fund – FDYSX – to learn the distribution. I called again on Monday – no change. Well it turns out the FDYSX – Fidelity Global Strategies Fund – which existed last Friday and had a distribution no longer exists. First the rep said it was closed to new investors. I suggested that there are dozens of other funds which are closes which are listed. Then he gave me the latest quote. I pointed out that was last Friday’s quote. He tried another suggestion or two but finally admitted it no longer existed and he did not know why. I have seen this with other Fidelity funds before. It would be nice if the Fidelity reps knew something about their own funds.

IRA#1
SEnergy has a price of 47.36, a sell price 44.99, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – IEO, PXI)
IRA#2
SEnergy has a price of 47.36, a sell price 44.99, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – IEO, PXI)

My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Invest 100% in FSENX – SEnergy
IRA #2 – Invest 20% in FSENX – SEnergy

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 20% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
11.95 01-04 FSENX 47.36 SEnergy
10.49 02-25 FSRPX 144.20 SRetailing
9.35 03-16 FBSOX 58.95 SITServices
8.05 04-15 FSCSX 176.18 SSoftware&ITServices
7.92 05-13 FSDCX 37.11 SCommunicationsEquipment
7.09 06-14 FSPTX 174.49 STechnology
6.98 07-05 FFGCX 13.54 GlobalCommodityStock
6.90 08-12 FCPGX 26.72 SmallCapGrowth
6.53 09-01 FOCPX 117.05 OTCPortfolio
6.45 10-04 FBGRX 93.19 BlueChipGrowth
6.10 11-03 FSCPX 43.00 SConsumerDiscretionary
6.02 12-04 FTQGX 24.12 FocusedStock
5.58 13-01 FSELX 109.58 SSemiconductors
5.46 14-03 FCNTX 127.29 Contrafund
5.35 15-02 FDCAX 36.86 CapitalAppreciation
5.31 16-01 FDCPX 92.47 SComputers
5.29 17-07 FSCOX 20.05 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
5.19 18-01 FDSVX 34.54 Growth Discovery
5.09 19-07 FCONX 10.04 ConservativeIncomeBond
4.99 20-01 FNCMX 94.80 NasdaqCompositeIndex
last week:
10.66 01-02 FSENX 46.52 SEnergy Yes
10.47 02-13 FSDAX 179.07 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
9.13 03-11 FSDCX 37.37 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
8.69 04-23 FSRPX 141.07 SRetailing Yes
8.40 05-03 FFGCX 13.67 GlobalCommodityStock Yes
8.07 06-15 FBSOX 57.97 SITServices Yes
7.89 07-10 FCPGX 26.87 SmallCapGrowth Yes
7.46 08-13 FSCSX 174.47 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
7.27 09-05 FSCOX 20.37 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
7.06 10-02 FTQGX 24.28 FocusedStock Yes
6.51 11-12 FSPTX 172.89 STechnology
5.84 12-01 FSCPX 42.76 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
5.82 13-01 FDCAX 36.92 CapitalAppreciation Yes
5.80 14-01 FCNTX 127.34 Contrafund Yes
5.55 15-01 FSLBX 79.78 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement Yes
5.51 16-02 FOCPX 115.53 OTCPortfolio Yes
5.50 17-02 FBGRX 92.04 BlueChipGrowth Yes
5.43 18-01 FTRNX 102.29 Trend Yes
5.27 19-05 FCONX 10.03 ConservativeIncomeBond
5.25 20-03 FISMX 30.53 InternationalSmallCap Yes

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SEnergy(FSENX)(23Apr18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18)
Feb18 1m-6% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+13% 24m+53% 36m+13% 60m+79% 120m+11%
Jan18 1m+6% 3m+5% 6m+18% 12m+24% 24m+63% 36m+27% 60m+89% 120m+18%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SEnergy(FSENX)(23Apr18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(02Apr18) from EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(FEMEX)(29Jan18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(26Mar18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jan18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(05Mar18) from SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement(FSLBX)(22Jan18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18) from EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC(FPEMX)(24Jul17)
Feb18 1m-4% 3m-1% 6m+3% 12m+6% 24m+28% 36m+17% 60m+29% 120m+39%
Jan18 1m+3% 3m+4% 6m+9% 12m+15% 24m+33% 36m+26% 60m+36% 120m+44%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%