Month: April 2018

Not a good week, a do nothing week. The sum of all the deviations has been 318, 367, and now 314 – not up two weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 04, 67, and now 13.
Another not exciting week and not a buy week so I am buying nothing, selling nothing.

I thought Fidelity had finally listened to my complaints (I gave up writing to Fidelity a long time ago, they ignore letters) because on the second week of April they had the distributions on Thursday so the list was complete and updated on Friday. In the past, often the Friday distributions did not get listed until the following Monday – not good for weekly weekend updating. However on 04/26, Thursday, they had some distributions but just could not get around to updating the list so the prices are suspect. Each week I add a fund from last month’s best performers, and drop the worst fund on my list so I only follow 100 funds. As I went to drop the worst performer this week, GlobalStrategies, I noticed it was down ~7% for the week. Not something which happens. So I looked up the fund details and it did have a distribution of 69.1 cents, a big percentage for a ~9 dollar fund. So I updated that fund with the distribution and removed another fund from my list after checking the funds details for distributions. It sure would be nice if Fidelity kept their website current!!!!

I received an email from Fidelity this week announcing their Wednesday sector performance webinar. It also contained a link to their sector evaluation website https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/markets_sectors/sectors/sectors_in_market.jhtml . Very interesting site – you can sort down to find the best performing ETFs based on various criteria. The two I invested in on Monday were on the first page of what they call their 4W/13W performance listing of 1700+ ETFs. Not sure how to use the page yet, but it looks interesting.

In the past, Gary Kaltbaum had a stock selecting service. He is starting it up again in a month or so and for the first month or so is free. Send your name, phone number, and email to Gary at gkaltbaum@kaltbaum.net asking to be up on the list for his new stock email service. If the stocks are profitable, you may want to pay for the service when the free period ends – cost unknown but free for a month or two

March returns for IRA#1 +0%, IRA#2 -0%, QQQ +0%, SPY/RSP +0%
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 -1%, IRA#2 -1%, QQQ 2%, SPY/RSP -3%
For the last 6 months, IRA#1 6%, IRA#2 2%, QQQ 10%, SPY/RSP 3%
For the last 12 months, IRA#1 20%, IRA#2 7%, QQQ 21%, SPY/RSP 8%
portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – Invested 100% in cash
IRA#2 – Sold FSLBX(Mar06), FSRPX(Mar27) – Invested in FEMEX, & 80% in cash
QQQ – Invested 100% in cash
SPY/RSP – Invested 100% in cash.
As the market declined in March, I was selling.

IRA#1
SEnergy has a price of 46.77, a sell price 44.43, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – IEO, PXI)
IRA#2
SEnergy has a price of 46.77, a sell price 44.43, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – IEO, PXI)

My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 20% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
10.86 01-24 FSRPX 144.71 SRetailing Yes
10.63 02-03 FSENX 46.77 SEnergy
7.98 03-12 FSDCX 37.13 SCommunicationsEquipment
7.49 04-16 FBSOX 57.89 SITServices
6.98 05-04 FFGCX 13.54 GlobalCommodityStock
6.55 06-14 FSCSX 173.59 SSoftware&ITServices
6.10 07-02 FSCPX 43.00 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
6.01 08-14 FSDAX 172.38 SDefense&Aerospace
5.87 09-11 FCPGX 26.45 SmallCapGrowth
5.48 10-03 FTQGX 23.99 FocusedStock
5.34 11-06 FSCOX 20.06 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
5.29 12-01 FSHCX 90.11 SHealthCareServices Yes
5.26 13-01 FSPHX 235.33 SHealthCare Yes
5.09 14-06 FCONX 10.04 ConservativeIncomeBond
5.05 15-03 FBGRX 91.89 BlueChipGrowth
4.94 16-13 FSPTX 170.80 STechnology
4.83 17-01 FIREX 11.86 InternationalRealEstate
4.76 18-02 FCNTX 126.41 Contrafund
4.59 19-01 FARNX 14.37 EventDrivenOpportunities Yes
4.54 20-01 FJSCX 19.18 JapanSmallerCompanies
last week:
10.66 01-02 FSENX 46.52 SEnergy Yes
10.47 02-13 FSDAX 179.07 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
9.13 03-11 FSDCX 37.37 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
8.69 04-23 FSRPX 141.07 SRetailing Yes
8.40 05-03 FFGCX 13.67 GlobalCommodityStock Yes
8.07 06-15 FBSOX 57.97 SITServices Yes
7.89 07-10 FCPGX 26.87 SmallCapGrowth Yes
7.46 08-13 FSCSX 174.47 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
7.27 09-05 FSCOX 20.37 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
7.06 10-02 FTQGX 24.28 FocusedStock Yes
6.51 11-12 FSPTX 172.89 STechnology
5.84 12-01 FSCPX 42.76 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
5.82 13-01 FDCAX 36.92 CapitalAppreciation Yes
5.80 14-01 FCNTX 127.34 Contrafund Yes
5.55 15-01 FSLBX 79.78 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement Yes
5.51 16-02 FOCPX 115.53 OTCPortfolio Yes
5.50 17-02 FBGRX 92.04 BlueChipGrowth Yes
5.43 18-01 FTRNX 102.29 Trend Yes
5.27 19-05 FCONX 10.03 ConservativeIncomeBond
5.25 20-03 FISMX 30.53 InternationalSmallCap Yes

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SEnergy(FSENX)(23Apr18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18)
Mar18 1m+0% 3m-1% 6m+6% 12m+21% 24m+53% 36m+7% 60m+64% 120m+11%
Feb18 1m-6% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+13% 24m+53% 36m+13% 60m+79% 120m+11%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SEnergy(FSENX)(23Apr18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(02Apr18) from EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(FEMEX)(29Jan18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(26Mar18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jan18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(05Mar18) from SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement(FSLBX)(22Jan18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18) from EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC(FPEMX)(24Jul17)
Mar18 1m-1% 3m-1% 6m+2% 12m+7% 24m+26% 36m+14% 60m+23% 120m+38%
Feb18 1m-4% 3m-1% 6m+3% 12m+6% 24m+28% 36m+17% 60m+29% 120m+39%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

A good week, a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 150, 318, and now 367 – weekly up two weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 07, 04, and now 67.
Not an exciting week, but the numbers say buy so I am buying.

Almost every day I get the opportunity to observe some bureaucratic stupidity. As most of you know, during tax season I work preparing taxes. On the last day I efile a return and with all the IRS problems it took until 9:30 pm to be accepted by the IRS, but it also included an Ohio state return. IRS and state returns are efiled at the same time but the state returns take several hours to get accepted. So this Ohio return arrived at 11 minutes after midnight and was rejected as being late. It should have been accepted with maybe a letter sent requesting a late payment fee – but accept the return. I am so glad Florida has no personal income returns.

In my opinion, the market is slowly forming a top. The volume of the latest up moves in not strong. SEnergy has been moving up fast and I only hope it continues. In addition to SEnergy, for my ETFs accounts I am buying two ETFs. While in the same industry, it does provide a small amount of diversification.

IRA#1
SEnergy has a price of 46.52, a sell price TBD, a rank of 02, and is a BUY. (ETF – IEO, PXI)
IRA#2
SEnergy has a price of 46.52, a sell price TBD, a rank of 02, and is a BUY. (ETF – IEO, PXI)

My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Invest 100% in FSENX – SEnergy
IRA #2 – Invest 20% in FSENX – SEnergy

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 20% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
10.66 01-02 FSENX 46.52 SEnergy Yes
10.47 02-13 FSDAX 179.07 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
9.13 03-11 FSDCX 37.37 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
8.69 04-23 FSRPX 141.07 SRetailing Yes
8.40 05-03 FFGCX 13.67 GlobalCommodityStock Yes
8.07 06-15 FBSOX 57.97 SITServices Yes
7.89 07-10 FCPGX 26.87 SmallCapGrowth Yes
7.46 08-13 FSCSX 174.47 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
7.27 09-05 FSCOX 20.37 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
7.06 10-02 FTQGX 24.28 FocusedStock Yes
6.51 11-12 FSPTX 172.89 STechnology
5.84 12-01 FSCPX 42.76 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
5.82 13-01 FDCAX 36.92 CapitalAppreciation Yes
5.80 14-01 FCNTX 127.34 Contrafund Yes
5.55 15-01 FSLBX 79.78 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement Yes
5.51 16-02 FOCPX 115.53 OTCPortfolio Yes
5.50 17-02 FBGRX 92.04 BlueChipGrowth Yes
5.43 18-01 FTRNX 102.29 Trend Yes
5.27 19-05 FCONX 10.03 ConservativeIncomeBond
5.25 20-03 FISMX 30.53 InternationalSmallCap Yes
last week:
8.25 01-01 FSELX 111.77 SSemiconductors
8.20 02-12 FSDAX 174.43 SDefense&Aerospace
7.93 03-10 FSDCX 36.78 SCommunicationsEquipment
7.38 04-01 FSENX 44.89 SEnergy
7.32 05-04 FSCOX 20.30 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
7.29 06-09 FCPGX 26.61 SmallCapGrowth
6.94 07-14 FBSOX 57.12 SITServices
6.80 08-11 FSPTX 172.77 STechnology
6.64 09-22 FSRPX 137.77 SRetailing
6.57 10-02 FFGCX 13.38 GlobalCommodityStock
6.12 11-12 FSCSX 171.62 SSoftware&ITServices
5.37 12-04 FEDDX 15.93 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
5.36 13-02 FIREX 11.86 InternationalRealEstate Yes
5.35 14-04 FCONX 10.01 ConservativeIncomeBond
5.31 15-01 FDCPX 91.98 SComputers
5.23 16-18 FHKCX 36.81 ChinaReqion
4.95 17-01 FBGRX 91.30 BlueChipGrowth
4.88 18-01 FOCPX 114.51 OTCPortfolio
4.85 19-01 FTQGX 23.69 FocusedStock
4.64 20-02 FISMX 30.27 InternationalSmallCap t

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SEnergy(FSENX)(23Apr18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18)
Feb18 1m-6% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+13% 24m+53% 36m+13% 60m+79% 120m+11%
Jan18 1m+6% 3m+5% 6m+18% 12m+24% 24m+63% 36m+27% 60m+89% 120m+18%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SEnergy(FSENX)(23Apr18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(02Apr18) from EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(FEMEX)(29Jan18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(26Mar18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jan18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(05Mar18) from SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement(FSLBX)(22Jan18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18) from EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC(FPEMX)(24Jul17)
Feb18 1m-4% 3m-1% 6m+3% 12m+6% 24m+28% 36m+17% 60m+29% 120m+39%
Jan18 1m+3% 3m+4% 6m+9% 12m+15% 24m+33% 36m+26% 60m+36% 120m+44%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

A good week, not a sell week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 248, 150, and now 318 – definitely not up two weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 00, 07, and now 04.
All in all it was not a bad week. Now if we can get one more week, I should buy something.

There is another interesting podcast I’ve found. Charting Wealth provides a daily update on the market technical status based on candlestick analysis. I’ve not watched any of their YouTube education yet, but maybe after tax season.

Wealthrack on 13Apr presented a discussion by Matt Hougan on why cryptocurrencies may be the next big thing. There are 4 blockchain etfs – BLOK, BLCN, LEGR, and KOIN. The SEC is about to decide if it will allow a real bitcoin etf.

IRA#1
Cash
IRA#2
Cash

My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
8.25 01-01 FSELX 111.77 SSemiconductors
8.20 02-12 FSDAX 174.43 SDefense&Aerospace
7.93 03-10 FSDCX 36.78 SCommunicationsEquipment
7.38 04-01 FSENX 44.89 SEnergy
7.32 05-04 FSCOX 20.30 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
7.29 06-09 FCPGX 26.61 SmallCapGrowth
6.94 07-14 FBSOX 57.12 SITServices
6.80 08-11 FSPTX 172.77 STechnology
6.64 09-22 FSRPX 137.77 SRetailing
6.57 10-02 FFGCX 13.38 GlobalCommodityStock
6.12 11-12 FSCSX 171.62 SSoftware&ITServices
5.37 12-04 FEDDX 15.93 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
5.36 13-02 FIREX 11.86 InternationalRealEstate Yes
5.35 14-04 FCONX 10.01 ConservativeIncomeBond
5.31 15-01 FDCPX 91.98 SComputers
5.23 16-18 FHKCX 36.81 ChinaReqion
4.95 17-01 FBGRX 91.30 BlueChipGrowth
4.88 18-01 FOCPX 114.51 OTCPortfolio
4.85 19-01 FTQGX 23.69 FocusedStock
4.64 20-02 FISMX 30.27 InternationalSmallCap
last week:
7.35 01-11 FSDAX 177.38 SDefense&Aerospace
6.53 02-21 FSRPX 137.15 SRetailing
6.40 03-03 FSCOX 20.05 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
5.85 04-03 FCONX 10.03 ConservativeIncomeBond
5.40 05-03 FEDDX 15.89 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
5.36 06-02 FJSCX 19.19 JapanSmallerCompanies
5.16 07-16 FEMEX 10.57 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica
4.87 08-13 FBSOX 56.70 SITServices
4.83 09-08 FCPGX 25.90 SmallCapGrowth
4.15 10-09 FSDCX 37.61 SCommunicationsEquipment
4.14 11-01 FIREX 11.69 InternationalRealEstate Yes
3.93 12-03 FLATX 26.76 LatinAmerica
3.86 13-01 FSCPX 41.74 SConsumerDiscretionary
3.72 14-10 FSPTX 184.88 STechnology
3.68 15-17 FHKCX 36.17 ChinaReqion
3.55 16-01 FISMX 29.88 InternationalSmallCap
3.46 17-11 FSCSX 170.04 SSoftware&ITServices
3.35 18-02 FJPNX 15.61 Japan
3.11 19-01 FFGCX 12.90 GlobalCommodityStock
2.91 20-02 FSLBX 77.41 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(26Dec17)
Feb18 1m-6% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+13% 24m+53% 36m+13% 60m+79% 120m+11%
Jan18 1m+6% 3m+5% 6m+18% 12m+24% 24m+63% 36m+27% 60m+89% 120m+18%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(02Apr18) from EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(FEMEX)(29Jan18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(26Mar18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jan18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(05Mar18) from SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement(FSLBX)(22Jan18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18) from EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC(FPEMX)(24Jul17)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(26Dec17)
20% – EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(FEMEX)(29Jan18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Feb18 1m-4% 3m-1% 6m+3% 12m+6% 24m+28% 36m+17% 60m+29% 120m+39%
Jan18 1m+3% 3m+4% 6m+9% 12m+15% 24m+33% 36m+26% 60m+36% 120m+44%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

 

09Apr18 update:
Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 140, 284, and now 150 – definitely not up two weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 00, 00, and now 07.
It sure would be nice it the market went up more than one week in a row.
We are soon to enter the seasonally weak part of the market year, know as “sell in May and go away.”

So Fidelity published their “Fidelity Fund Distributions” today and the “are the most recently reported” is not true since some were reported Friday.
I doubt my two calls on Saturday resulted in nothing, but would sure be nice if Fidelity could accurately report complete fund prices.

Turns out I am not 100% is cash. I have about 2% invested in HRBlock I’ve purchased through the employee stock purchase plan. The stock is easy to sell, but can only be purchased with payroll deductions. So for that 2% I am hoping the market goes up eventually. However for now everything looks like the decline is continuing

IRA#1
Cash
IRA#2
Cash

My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
7.35 01-11 FSDAX 177.38 SDefense&Aerospace
6.53 02-21 FSRPX 137.15 SRetailing
6.40 03-03 FSCOX 20.05 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
5.85 04-03 FCONX 10.03 ConservativeIncomeBond
5.40 05-03 FEDDX 15.89 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
5.36 06-02 FJSCX 19.19 JapanSmallerCompanies
5.16 07-16 FEMEX 10.57 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica
4.87 08-13 FBSOX 56.70 SITServices
4.83 09-08 FCPGX 25.90 SmallCapGrowth
4.15 10-09 FSDCX 37.61 SCommunicationsEquipment
4.14 11-01 FIREX 11.69 InternationalRealEstate Yes
3.93 12-03 FLATX 26.76 LatinAmerica
3.86 13-01 FSCPX 41.74 SConsumerDiscretionary
3.72 14-10 FSPTX 184.88 STechnology
3.68 15-17 FHKCX 36.17 ChinaReqion
3.55 16-01 FISMX 29.88 InternationalSmallCap
3.46 17-11 FSCSX 170.04 SSoftware&ITServices
3.35 18-02 FJPNX 15.61 Japan
3.11 19-01 FFGCX 12.90 GlobalCommodityStock
2.91 20-02 FSLBX 77.41 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
last week:
8.79 01-10 FSDAX 179.06 SDefense&Aerospace
8.42 02-20 FSRPX 140.28 SRetailing
7.46 03-12 FBSOX 57.95 SITServices
7.37 04-06 FSELX 116.67 SSemiconductors
7.17 05-07 FCPGX 26.41 SmallCapGrowth
6.98 06-02 FSCOX 20.09 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
6.65 07-08 FSDCX 38.43 SCommunicationsEquipment
6.65 08-15 FEMEX 10.69 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica
6.49 09-01 FJSCX 19.34 JapanSmallerCompanies
6.41 10-16 FHKCX 37.05 ChinaReqion
6.37 11-02 FEDDX 15.99 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
6.08 12-09 FSPTX 188.71 STechnology
5.96 13-02 FCONX 10.01 ConservativeIncomeBond
5.49 14-01 FSLBX 83.25 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
5.41 15-02 FPEMX 11.68 EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC
5.28 16-02 FLATX 27.05 LatinAmerica
5.26 17-01 FJPNX 15.87 Japan
5.22 18-10 FSCSX 172.62 SSoftware&ITServices
5.14 19-12 FTQGX 23.66 FocusedStock
4.55 20-01 FSEAX 45.10 EmergingAsia

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(26Dec17)
Feb18 1m-6% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+13% 24m+53% 36m+13% 60m+79% 120m+11%
Jan18 1m+6% 3m+5% 6m+18% 12m+24% 24m+63% 36m+27% 60m+89% 120m+18%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(02Apr18) from EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(FEMEX)(29Jan18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(26Mar18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jan18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(05Mar18) from SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement(FSLBX)(22Jan18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18) from EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC(FPEMX)(24Jul17)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(26Dec17)
20% – EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(FEMEX)(29Jan18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Feb18 1m-4% 3m-1% 6m+3% 12m+6% 24m+28% 36m+17% 60m+29% 120m+39%
Jan18 1m+3% 3m+4% 6m+9% 12m+15% 24m+33% 36m+2