February 2018 – FlynnDJ.com

23 February 2018

A good week and if we get another one like this it will be time to buy. The sum of all the deviations has been 851, 297, and now 728 – still not up two weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 00, 00, and now 61.
Fidelity did it again. Late Friday their fund prices said 02/23 but the numbers were really 02/22. Before you take any actions based on what Fidelity publishes, verify it with Google or Finance.Yahoo. Fidelity fund prices cannot be trusted.
Anyway it was a very encouraging week. It looks like the foreign funds are performing better than the rest. 16 of the top 20 funds are rated buy – two of which I own.

January returns for IRA#1 6%, IRA#2 3%, QQQ 8%, SPY/RSP 4%
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 5%, IRA#2 4%, QQQ 11%, SPY/RSP 9%
For the last 6 months, IRA#1 18%, IRA#2 9%, QQQ 18%, SPY/RSP 12%
For the last 12 months, IRA#1 24%, IRA#2 15%, QQQ 36%, SPY/RSP 20%
portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – None – Invested 100% in FSELX
IRA#2 – FSRPX(01/17), FSLBX(01/23), FEMEX(01/30) – Invested in FSRPX, FSLBX, FEMEX, FPEMX, and FSELX.
QQQ – None – Invested 100% in QQQ
SPY/RSP – None – Invested 100% in RSP.
January Sales:
Mutual Funds – None
ETF: SOXX – PHLX Semiconductor Sector P: 12/26/17 S: 01/29/18 Gain 9.0% – stoploss sale – I purchased the same time I purchased SSemiconductors.
Everything else was sold in February except for 3 funds.

IRA#1
Cash
IRA#2
SRetailing has a price of 144.72, a sell price 141.45, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – RTH – stopped out)
SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement has a price of 84.60, a sell price 84.05, a rank of 24, and is a hold. (ETF – CHIX – stopped out)
EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica has a price of 11.30, a sell price 10.74, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – EMQQ – stopped out)

My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
15.58 01-10 FEMEX 11.30 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica Yes
15.24 02-06 FSDAX 184.35 SDefense&Aerospace
15.22 03-15 FSRPX 144.72 SRetailing Yes
13.00 04-05 FSCSX 180.50 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
12.85 05-04 FSPTX 195.39 STechnology Yes
12.83 06-07 FBSOX 59.22 SITServices Yes
12.55 07-11 FHKCX 38.29 ChinaReqion Yes
11.23 08-03 FSDCX 39.00 SCommunicationsEquipment
11.18 09-07 FSCPX 44.48 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
10.95 10-05 FBGRX 94.15 BlueChipGrowth Yes
10.78 11-05 FCNTX 129.80 Contrafund Yes
10.68 12-08 FTQGX 24.36 FocusedStock Yes
10.63 13-09 FPEMX 12.04 EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC Yes
10.49 14-02 FOCPX 117.56 OTCPortfolio Yes
10.35 15-01 FSELX 116.40 SSemiconductors Yes
10.02 16-01 FLATX 27.79 LatinAmerica Yes
9.81 17-01 FSUIX 14.11 LargeCapGrowthIndex – IC Yes
9.79 18-02 FEMKX 34.11 EmergingMarkets
9.79 19-02 FCPGX 26.38 SmallCapGrowth Yes
9.69 20-03 FTRNX 103.88 Trend
Last week
16.46 01-06 FSDAX 184.80 SDefense&Aerospace
14.99 02-09 FEMEX 11.15 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica
14.72 03-14 FSRPX 142.93 SRetailing
13.14 04-02 FTRNX 106.60 Trend
12.29 05-02 FSDCX 39.14 SCommunicationsEquipment
12.07 06-06 FBSOX 58.42 SITServices
11.58 07-04 FSCSX 177.01 SSoftware&ITServices
11.44 08-10 FHKCX 37.66 ChinaReqion
11.31 09-03 FSPTX 191.43 STechnology
10.81 10-06 FSCPX 44.07 SConsumerDiscretionary
10.42 11-08 FPEMX 11.95 EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC
10.34 12-07 FTQGX 24.15 FocusedStock
9.97 13-01 FOCPX 116.36 OTCPortfolio
9.97 14-04 FCNTX 128.12 Contrafund
9.94 15-01 FEMKX 33.98 EmergingMarkets
9.90 16-04 FBGRX 92.72 BlueChipGrowth
9.78 17-12 FSLBX 84.39 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
9.75 18-03 FSVLX 16.65 SConsumerFinance
9.31 19-01 FCPGX 26.13 SmallCapGrowth
9.23 20-02 FLGEX 19.65 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(26Dec17)
Jan17 1m+6% 3m+5% 6m+18% 12m+24% 24m+63% 36m+27% 60m+89% 120m+18%
Dec17 1m-1% 3m+7% 6m+18% 12m+18% 24m+46% 36m+28% 60m+92% 120m-5%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(26Feb18) from SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement(FSLBX)(22Jan18)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18) from EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC(FPEMX)(24Jul17)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(26Dec17)
20% – EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(FEMEX)(29Jan18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jan18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jan17 1m+3% 3m+4% 6m+9% 12m+15% 24m+33% 36m+26% 60m+36% 120m+44%
Dec17 1m-0% 3m+4% 6m+7% 12m+13% 24m+23% 36m+22% 60m+35% 120m+41%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

16 February 2018

A good week but not more than a bounce from the lows. The sum of all the deviations has been 851, 297, and now 717.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 00, 00, and now 00.
The Feb15 podcast from MicroVision features a discussion of what happens next. The feeling seems to be this month has been a just a tremor and an indications of things to come. One commentator suggested it was a Bear Stearns moment when in 2007 a couple of their hedge funds failed. The year following the Bear Sterns moment, Bear Sterns failed and did Lehman Brothers and we were into the great recession. About an hour into the podcast they talk about charts which are available at www.macrovices.com. All the charts say we are in a bounce with lower prices coming – if the future market moves follows the past market moves..

IRA#1
Cash
IRA#2
SRetailing has a price of 142.93, a sell price 141.45, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – RTH – stopped out)
SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement has a price of 84.39, a sell price 84.05, a rank of 17, and is a hold. (ETF – CHIX – stopped out)
EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica has a price of 11.15, a sell price 10.59, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – EMQQ – stopped out)

My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
116.46 01-06 FSDAX 184.80 SDefense&Aerospace
14.99 02-09 FEMEX 11.15 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica
14.72 03-14 FSRPX 142.93 SRetailing
13.14 04-02 FTRNX 106.60 Trend
12.29 05-02 FSDCX 39.14 SCommunicationsEquipment
12.07 06-06 FBSOX 58.42 SITServices
11.58 07-04 FSCSX 177.01 SSoftware&ITServices
11.44 08-10 FHKCX 37.66 ChinaReqion
11.31 09-03 FSPTX 191.43 STechnology
10.81 10-06 FSCPX 44.07 SConsumerDiscretionary
10.42 11-08 FPEMX 11.95 EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC
10.34 12-07 FTQGX 24.15 FocusedStock
9.97 13-01 FOCPX 116.36 OTCPortfolio
9.97 14-04 FCNTX 128.12 Contrafund
9.94 15-01 FEMKX 33.98 EmergingMarkets
9.90 16-04 FBGRX 92.72 BlueChipGrowth
9.78 17-12 FSLBX 84.39 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
9.75 18-03 FSVLX 16.65 SConsumerFinance
9.31 19-01 FCPGX 26.13 SmallCapGrowth
9.23 20-02 FLGEX 19.65 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex
Last week
11.34 01-13 FSRPX 137.65 SRetailing
9.62 02-05 FSDAX 172.45 SDefense&Aerospace
7.79 03-08 FEMEX 10.37 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica
7.41 04-05 FBSOX 55.64 SITServices
6.79 05-05 FSCPX 42.23 SConsumerDiscretionary
6.78 06-03 FSCSX 168.36 SSoftware&ITServices
6.27 07-01 FSDCX 36.80 SCommunicationsEquipment
5.80 08-03 FSCOX 19.29 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
5.43 09-02 FSPTX 180.23 STechnology
5.40 10-03 FCNTX 122.16 Contrafund
5.34 11-06 FTQGX 22.93 FocusedStock
5.20 12-11 FSLBX 80.45 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
4.97 13-03 FBGRX 88.10 BlueChipGrowth
4.94 14-09 FHKCX 35.25 ChinaReqion
4.90 15-07 FPEMX 11.29 EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC
4.88 16-02 FSVLX 15.83 SConsumerFinance
4.78 17-02 FJSCX 18.58 JapanSmallerCompanies
4.71 18-01 FSUIX 13.32 LargeCapGrowthIndex – IC
4.62 19-01 FLGEX 18.73 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex
4.59 20-01 FTRNX 97.86 Trend

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(26Dec17)
Dec17 1m-1% 3m+7% 6m+18% 12m+18% 24m+46% 36m+28% 60m+92% 120m-5%
Nov17 1m+0% 3m+9% 6m+16% 12m+26% 24m+45% 36m+32% 60m+97% 120m-8%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18) from EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC(FPEMX)(24Jul17)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(26Dec17)
20% – EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(FEMEX)(29Jan18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement(FSLBX)(22Jan18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jan18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Dec17 1m-0% 3m+4% 6m+7% 12m+13% 24m+23% 36m+22% 60m+35% 120m+41%
Nov17 1m+1% 3m+4% 6m+5% 12m+16% 24m+21% 36m+23% 60m+35% 120m+33%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

09 February 2018

The worst week since 2008, not a time to buy. The sum of all the deviations has been 1325, 851, and now 257.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 67, 00, and now 00.
So the next time the sum of all deviations exceeds 1000, it is not a time to buy. The volatility of the market the last two week has been a little extreme. I have no idea it the next move is up or down, but I am mostly in cash and plan to stay that way until the market volatility decreases and a trend developes.

IRA#1 and IRS#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 108.93, a sell price 114.02, and a rank of 28, and is a sell now. (ETF – ARKW – stopped out)
IRA#2
EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC has a price of 11.29, a sell price 11.93, and a rank of 15, and is a sell now. (ETF – EEMO – stopped out)
SRetailing has a price of 137.65, a sell price 141.45, a rank of 01, and is a sell on or after 2/15. (ETF – RTH – stopped out)
SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement has a price of 80.45, a sell price 84.05, a rank of 12, and is a sell on or after 2/21. (ETF – CHIX – stopped out)
EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica has a price of 10.37, a sell price 10.29, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – EMQQ – stopped out)
I called Fidelity to confirm the earliest “legal” sell date. I plan to sell on the weekend following that “legal” sell date – unless the fund price is above the sell price. Fidelity has decided that if a fund is sold within 30 days of purchase, you violate their short term trading restrictions. By violating the 30 day rule you get a call telling you not to do it. If you do second violation you get a restriction on how soon you can buy funds again. If you do a third your wait to buy is longer. No matter how absurd Fidelity’s rule, it is best to follow it. I’ve gotten that call for one sell in the past and suggested where they can put the rule. I’ve never done two violations.
All in all, I think it is just another way Fidelity chooses to charge invstors more. ETFs have no such rule and all my ETFs were stopped out. When the funds I’m selling get sold, I plan to compare my fund gain to my ETF gain.

My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Sell SSemiconductors
IRA #2 – Sell SSemiconductors, and EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
11.34 01-13 FSRPX 137.65 SRetailing
9.62 02-05 FSDAX 172.45 SDefense&Aerospace
7.79 03-08 FEMEX 10.37 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica
7.41 04-05 FBSOX 55.64 SITServices
6.79 05-05 FSCPX 42.23 SConsumerDiscretionary
6.78 06-03 FSCSX 168.36 SSoftware&ITServices
6.27 07-01 FSDCX 36.80 SCommunicationsEquipment
5.80 08-03 FSCOX 19.29 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
5.43 09-02 FSPTX 180.23 STechnology
5.40 10-03 FCNTX 122.16 Contrafund
5.34 11-06 FTQGX 22.93 FocusedStock
5.20 12-11 FSLBX 80.45 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
4.97 13-03 FBGRX 88.10 BlueChipGrowth
4.94 14-09 FHKCX 35.25 ChinaReqion
4.90 15-07 FPEMX 11.29 EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC
4.88 16-02 FSVLX 15.83 SConsumerFinance
4.78 17-02 FJSCX 18.58 JapanSmallerCompanies
4.71 18-01 FSUIX 13.32 LargeCapGrowthIndex – IC
4.62 19-01 FLGEX 18.73 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex
4.59 20-01 FTRNX 97.86 Trend
Last week
17.03 01-12 FSRPX 143.82 SRetailing
15.80 02-04 FSDAX 181.24 SDefense&Aerospace
13.87 03-07 FSENX 46.97 SEnergy
13.33 04-08 FHKCX 37.97 ChinaReqion
13.04 05-07 FEMEX 10.83 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica
12.65 06-04 FSCPX 44.39 SConsumerDiscretionary
11.92 07-02 FSCSX 175.84 SSoftware&ITServices
11.89 08-05 FBSOX 57.73 SITServices
11.79 09-02 FSCOX 20.32 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
11.69 10-06 FPEMX 11.99 EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC
11.54 11-02 FCNTX 130.86 Contrafund
11.49 12-10 FSLBX 85.03 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
11.46 13-01 FIDSX 119.87 SFinancialServices
11.04 14-01 FJSCX 19.64 JapanSmallerCompanies
10.92 15-01 FSPTX 189.07 STechnology
10.80 16-01 FSVLX 16.68 SConsumerFinance
10.75 17-05 FTQGX 24.04 FocusedStock
10.67 18-01 FMAGX 110.36 Magellan
10.64 19-03 FEMKX 33.94 EmergingMarkets
10.62 20-02 FBGRX 92.60 BlueChipGrowth

02 February 2018

A bad week, the worst week since 2008, not a time to buy. The sum of all the deviations has been 1095, 1325, and now 851.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 63, 67, and now 00.
The explosive uptrend blew up. I do not remember the last time the sum of all the deviations went above 1000. Obviously a indication of a severely over bought market.
I have no idea what the market is doing next. It is still over bought but that does not indicate it will go down. One of my ETFs was sold but the rest, and the mutual funds, are still above their sell price by 1% or so. The purpose of my sell price is to limit my loss. When a fund starts to fall, there is not a way to tell when the loss will stop.

At the same time I purchased SRetailing I purchased two retailing ETFs – RTH (VanEck Retail) and XRT (SPDR S&P Retail). All 3 went up but over the last 4 days have fallen. XRT fell the most and I was stopped out on Friday for a loss of 5%. The other two are within less than 2% of their sell price.

IRA#1 and IRS#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 114.11, a sell price 114.02, and a rank of 34, and is a hold for now. (ETF – ARKW)
IRA#2
EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC has a price of 11.99, a sell price 11.93, and a rank of 10, and is a hold. (ETF – EEMO)
SRetailing has a price of 143.82, a sell price 141.45, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – RTH)
SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement has a price of 85.03, a sell price 84.05, a rank of 12, and is a hold. (ETF – CHIX)
EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica has a price of 10.83, a sell price 10.29, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – EMQQ)
Interesting that each investment almost hit the sell price – just not quite.

My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
17.03 01-12 FSRPX 143.82 SRetailing
15.80 02-04 FSDAX 181.24 SDefense&Aerospace
13.87 03-07 FSENX 46.97 SEnergy
13.33 04-08 FHKCX 37.97 ChinaReqion
13.04 05-07 FEMEX 10.83 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica
12.65 06-04 FSCPX 44.39 SConsumerDiscretionary
11.92 07-02 FSCSX 175.84 SSoftware&ITServices
11.89 08-05 FBSOX 57.73 SITServices
11.79 09-02 FSCOX 20.32 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
11.69 10-06 FPEMX 11.99 EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC
11.54 11-02 FCNTX 130.86 Contrafund
11.49 12-10 FSLBX 85.03 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
11.46 13-01 FIDSX 119.87 SFinancialServices
11.04 14-01 FJSCX 19.64 JapanSmallerCompanies
10.92 15-01 FSPTX 189.07 STechnology
10.80 16-01 FSVLX 16.68 SConsumerFinance
10.75 17-05 FTQGX 24.04 FocusedStock
10.67 18-01 FMAGX 110.36 Magellan
10.64 19-03 FEMKX 33.94 EmergingMarkets
10.62 20-02 FBGRX 92.60 BlueChipGrowth
Last week
22.25 01-11 FSRPX 148.89 SRetailing
19.24 02-07 FHKCX 39.67 ChinaReqion
18.76 03-06 FEMEX 11.30 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica Yes
18.29 04-03 FSDAX 183.60 SDefense&Aerospace
17.73 05-05 FPEMX 12.56 EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC Yes
16.88 06-03 FSCPX 45.75 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
16.88 07-04 FBSOX 59.93 SITServices Yes
16.71 08-09 FSLBX 88.47 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement Yes
16.70 09-02 FEMKX 35.60 EmergingMarkets Yes
16.48 10-04 FTQGX 25.14 FocusedStock Yes
16.36 11-06 FSEAX 48.57 EmergingAsia
16.36 12-16 FFGCX 14.16 GlobalCommodityStock
16.29 13-01 FSCSX 181.56 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
15.78 14-01 FCNTX 135.02 Contrafund Yes
15.78 15-06 FSENX 47.41 SEnergy
15.76 16-01 FDCPX 97.91 SComputers Yes
15.75 17-18 FSELX 120.02 SSemiconductors Yes
15.62 18-01 FBGRX 96.24 BlueChipGrowth Yes
15.59 19-01 FSCOX 20.88 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
15.46 20-02 FLGEX 20.51 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex Yes

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(26Dec17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Dec17 1m-1% 3m+7% 6m+18% 12m+18% 24m+46% 36m+28% 60m+92% 120m-5%
Nov17 1m+0% 3m+9% 6m+16% 12m+26% 24m+45% 36m+32% 60m+97% 120m-8%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(FEMEX)(29Jan18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement(FSLBX)(22Jan18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jan18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(26Dec17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – EmergingMarketsIndex – IC(FPEMX)(24Jul17) from CashResrves(FDRXX)
Dec17 1m-0% 3m+4% 6m+7% 12m+13% 24m+23% 36m+22% 60m+35% 120m+41%
Nov17 1m+1% 3m+4% 6m+5% 12m+16% 24m+21% 36m+23% 60m+35% 120m+33%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%