Month: September 2017

It was an OK week, not bad enough to sell and just barely short of a buy. The sum of all the deviations has been 643, 731, and this week 695.
The twice a week report I am getting from James Rohrbach, Investment-Models.com, says buy NYSE and buy Nasdaq.
Last week 25 funds were rated buy due to a two week improving deviation. This week the number is 41.
If it had been a buy week, I would have sold SComputers – lowest rank of the funds I own – and purchased SDefense&Aerospace.
While LatinAmerican and ChinaReqion have higher ratings than SDefense&Aerospace, their deviation (uptrend momentum) is decreasing.
Last week I made error when I overlooked a distribution for OTCPortfolio. I have updated last week’s numbers below.

August returns for IRA#1 4%, IRA#2 2%, QQQ 2%, SPY/RSP -1% – not a bad month.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 7%, IRA#2 1%, QQQ 4%, SPY/RSP 2%
For the last 6 months, IRA#1 5%, IRA#2 3%, QQQ 13%, SPY/RSP 3%
For the last 12 months, IRA#1 9%, IRA#2 10%, QQQ 26%, SPY/RSP 12%
July portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – None – Invested 100% in FSPTX
IRA#2 – Sold FDLSX on 01Aug, Purchased FPEMX on 18Aug. Invested 20% in FSELX, FDCPX, FSPTX, FPEMX, and in cash
QQQ – None – Invested 100% in QQQ
SPY/RSP – None – Invested 100% in RSP

My S&P500 investment is in RSP (S&P500 EqualWeighted) which has a price of 94.55, 50 day MA of 93.17, a 200 day MA of 90.54, and a 7% stop loss is 87.93.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2 – STechnology has a price of 177.14, a sell price 169.55, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – CQQQ – current stoploss 54.66)
IRA#2
SComputers has a price of 89.51, a sell price 88.54, a rank of of 41, and is a hold for now. (ETF – PSI – stopped out 6/12 11% gain)
OTCPortfolio has a price of 102.91, a sell price 95.95, a rank of 25, and is a hold for now. (ETF – MTUM – stoploss 88.48)
EmergingMarketsIndex – IC has a price of 11.03, a sell price 10.48, and a rank of 04. (ETF – EEMO – stoploss 19.24)
SBiotechnology – has a price of 227.90, a sell price 217.35, a rank of 07, and is a hold. (ETF – SBIO – stoploss 29.22)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

I overlooked a distribution for OTCPortfolio last week. I have adjusted last week’s data and as a result this weeks data to include that distribution.
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
15.52 01-07 FLATX 26.44 LatinAmerica
14.20 02-20 FHKCX 33.28 ChinaReqion
13.70 03-09 FSDAX 160.97 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
13.55 04-12 FPEMX 11.03 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
12.44 05-35 FSPTX 177.14 STechnology
11.98 06-05 FFGCX 12.41 GlobalCommodityStock Yes
11.96 07-05 FBIOX 227.90 SBiotechnology
11.87 08-25 FEMKX 30.86 EmergingMarkets
11.79 09-18 FSEAX 41.79 EmergingAsia
11.43 10-02 FSCHX 175.12 SChemicals Yes
10.99 11-06 FIVFX 20.98 InternationalCapApp Yes
10.38 12-11 FISMX 29.23 InternationalSmallCap
10.09 13-11 FPBFX 33.74 PacificBasin
10.00 14-10 FIGRX 46.28 InternationalDiscovery
9.83 15-10 FTIEX 9.25 TotalInternationalEquity
9.67 16-01 FBSOX 51.53 SITServices Yes
9.50 17-06 FEDDX 14.96 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
9.49 18-22 FDSVX 31.63 Growth Discovery
9.47 19-01 FSAIX 84.08 SAirTransportation Yes
9.29 20-01 FSVLX 14.85 SConsumerFinance Yes
Last week
16.91 01-06 FLATX 26.54 LatinAmerica Yes
14.50 02-19 FHKCX 33.12 ChinaReqion
14.26 03-11 FPEMX 11.02 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
14.03 04-34 FSPTX 178.47 STechnology
13.11 05-04 FBIOX 228.79 SBiotechnology
12.22 06-17 FSEAX 41.69 EmergingAsia
12.10 07-24 FEMKX 30.73 EmergingMarkets
11.15 08-04 FFGCX 12.24 GlobalCommodityStock Yes
11.02 09-10 FISMX 29.24 InternationalSmallCap
11.01 10-05 FEDDX 15.09 EmergingMarketsDiscovery Yes
10.67 11-01 FSCHX 172.87 SChemicals
10.42 12-10 FPBFX 33.66 PacificBasin Yes
10.40 13-12 FOCPX 104.16 OTCPortfolio
10.28 14-21 FDSVX 31.70 Growth Discovery
10.20 15-09 FIGRX 46.12 InternationalDiscovery Yes
10.14 16-05 FIVFX 20.70 InternationalCapApp Yes
10.08 17-08 FSDAX 154.73 SDefense&Aerospace
10.04 18-09 FTIEX 9.22 TotalInternationalEquity Yes
9.64 19-0 FSCOX 18.36 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities Yes
9.60 20-01 FSELX 109.78 SSemiconductors

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Aug17 1m+4% 3m+7% 6m+5% 12m+9% 24m+33% 36m+17% 60m+93% 120m-8%
Jul17 1m+5% 3m+8% 6m+5% 12m+6% 24m+7% 36m+17% 60m+81% 120m-18%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SBiotechnology(FBIOX)(05Sep17) from CashResrves(FDRXX)
20% – EmergingMarketsIndex – IC(FPEMX)(24Jul17) from CashResrves(FDRXX)
20% – OTCPortfolio(FOCPX)(15May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
Aug17 1m+2% 3m+1% 6m+3% 12m+10% 24m+17% 36m+17% 60m+28% 120m+20%
Jul17 1m+1% 3m+2% 6m+5% 12m+5% 24m+7% 36m+16% 60m+25% 120m+22%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

So hurricane Irma killed the power at my house and the UVerse from ATT (Phone, cable, internet).
The power came back in 2 days. The UVerse has now been out 7 days and waiting – no phone, cable, or internet.
The office where I work has only half power so no air, no work stations, and only some lights. I go in every day to see if there has been a change. The whole mall is that way with half power (7 days and counting) except for Publix with its own generator. The Food Shack restaurant is serving out of a food trunk in the parking lot.

All in all a good week in the market. I waited longer to finish this in hope of getting UVerse back – I am not thrilled with ATT

So I have had only limited access to get some data and only worked to the the vital numbers. The rest of the numbers I hope to have back by next week, unless Maria hits.

My S&P500 investment is in RSP (S&P500 EqualWeighted) which has a price of ??, 50 day MA of ??, a 200 day MA of ??, and a 7% stop loss is ??.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2 – STechnology has a price of 178.47, a sell price 169.55, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – CQQQ – current stoploss ?)
IRA#2
SComputers has a price of 90.04, a sell price 88.54, a rank of of 27, and is a hold for now. (ETF – PSI – stopped out 6/12 11% gain)
OTCPortfolio has a price of 104.16, a sell price 102.80, a rank of 67, and is a hold. (ETF – MTUM – stoploss ?)
EmergingMarketsIndex – IC has a price of 11.02, a sell price 10.47, and a rank of 03. (ETF – EEMO – stoploss ?)
SBiotechnology – has a price of 228.79, a sell price 217.35, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – SBIO – stoploss ?)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
16.91 01-06 FLATX 26.54 LatinAmerica Yes
14.50 02-19 FHKCX 33.12 ChinaReqion
14.26 03-11 FPEMX 11.02 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
14.03 04-34 FSPTX 178.47 STechnology
13.11 05-04 FBIOX 228.79 SBiotechnology
12.22 06-17 FSEAX 41.69 EmergingAsia
12.10 07-24 FEMKX 30.73 EmergingMarkets
11.15 08-04 FFGCX 12.24 GlobalCommodityStock Yes
11.02 09-10 FISMX 29.24 InternationalSmallCap
11.01 10-05 FEDDX 15.09 EmergingMarketsDiscovery Yes
10.67 11-01 FSCHX 172.87 SChemicals
10.42 12-10 FPBFX 33.66 PacificBasin Yes
10.28 13-21 FDSVX 31.70 Growth Discovery
10.20 14-09 FIGRX 46.12 InternationalDiscovery Yes
10.14 15-05 FIVFX 20.70 InternationalCapApp Yes
10.08 16-08 FSDAX 154.73 SDefense&Aerospace
10.04 17-09 FTIEX 9.22 TotalInternationalEquity Yes
9.64 18-02 FSCOX 18.36 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities Yes
9.60 19-01 FSELX 109.78 SSemiconductors
9.51 20-01 FBGRX 83.99 BlueChipGrowth
Last week
15.69 01-05 FLATX 26.03 LatinAmerica
13.76 02-10 FPEMX 10.89 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
13.75 03-03 FBIOX 228.50 SBiotechnology
13.70 04-23 FEMKX 30.97 EmergingMarkets
13.26 05-18 FHKCX 32.51 ChinaReqion
12.35 06-33 FSPTX 174.54 STechnology
11.65 07-16 FSEAX 41.21 EmergingAsia
11.06 08-09 FISMX 29.08 InternationalSmallCap
10.53 09-03 FFGCX 12.10 GlobalCommodityStock Yes
10.40 10-04 FEDDX 14.92 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
10.33 11-09 FPBFX 33.45 PacificBasin
10.08 12-20 FDSVX 31.47 Growth Discovery
9.88 13-04 FIVFX 20.54 InternationalCapApp Yes
9.81 14-07 FIGRX 45.71 InternationalDiscovery
9.66 15-08 FTIEX 9.14 TotalInternationalEquity
9.60 16-01 FSCOX 18.26 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities Yes
9.50 17-07 FIREX 11.39 InternationalRealEstate Yes
9.30 18-07 FSDAX 152.81 SDefense&Aerospace
9.14 19-01 FSAGX 22.67 SGold
9.05 20-11 FOCPX 107.03 OTCPortfolio

So hurricane Irma has not killed the power at my house yet. It looks like Irma going up the west coast of Florida.

So I called Fidelity this morning since their list of this weekend’s distribution was wrong again. The representative said he would report it again for me. So the numbers have a potential of being adjusted but probably not a large change.

Each week I update my list of 100 funds with any better performing fund I am not following and dump the worst performing of the fund. This week I dumped Fidelity Select Banking Portfolio – FSRBX. Since the end of June, it has fallen 10%. Gary Kaltbaum has always claimed the market can not go up without the banks going up and will eventually go down. I listen to his show every evening, most often on the biztalkradio app.

I had previously mention that Jim Rohrback of Investment-Models.com was offering a free 2 month subscription to his timing letter. This week his two emails said remained invested in both the NYSE and Nasdaq.

My S&P500 investment is in RSP (S&P500 EqualWeighted) which has a price of 93.33, 50 day MA of 93.19, a 200 day MA of 90.46, and a 7% stop loss is 87.99.Fidelity has a fund, FUSEX, which follows the S&P500 index. It is currently ranked 70 on my list of best 100 funds. Not something to own. Fidelity also has a fund, FNCMX, which follows the Nasdaq index. It is currently ranked 53 on my list of best 100 funds. Not something to own. During a buy week when a fund I own is not one of the top 20 and I am fully invested, I will sell it and buy a top 20 fund. A good way to get rid of the “not bad enough to sell but not good enough to buy” funds.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2 – STechnology has a price of 174.54, a sell price 166.96, a rank of 06, and is a hold. (ETF – CQQQ – current stoploss 52.12)
IRA#2
SComputers has a price of 88.75, a sell price 84.96, a rank of of 38, and is a hold for now. (ETF – PSI – stopped out 6/12 11% gain)
OTCPortfolio has a price of 107.03, a sell price 102.80, a rank of 20, and is a hold. (ETF – MTUM – stoploss 87.02)
EmergingMarketsIndex – IC has a price of 10.89, a sell price 10.35, and a rank of 02. (ETF – EEMO – stoploss 18.80)
SBiotechnology – has a price of 228.50, a sell price 217.08, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – SBIO – stoploss TBD)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
15.69 01-05 FLATX 26.03 LatinAmerica
13.76 02-10 FPEMX 10.89 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
13.75 03-03 FBIOX 228.50 SBiotechnology
13.70 04-23 FEMKX 30.97 EmergingMarkets
13.26 05-18 FHKCX 32.51 ChinaReqion
12.35 06-33 FSPTX 174.54 STechnology
11.65 07-16 FSEAX 41.21 EmergingAsia
11.06 08-09 FISMX 29.08 InternationalSmallCap
10.53 09-03 FFGCX 12.10 GlobalCommodityStock Yes
10.40 10-04 FEDDX 14.92 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
10.33 11-09 FPBFX 33.45 PacificBasin
10.08 12-20 FDSVX 31.47 Growth Discovery
9.88 13-04 FIVFX 20.54 InternationalCapApp Yes
9.81 14-07 FIGRX 45.71 InternationalDiscovery
9.66 15-08 FTIEX 9.14 TotalInternationalEquity
9.60 16-01 FSCOX 18.26 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities Yes
9.50 17-07 FIREX 11.39 InternationalRealEstate Yes
9.30 18-07 FSDAX 152.81 SDefense&Aerospace
9.14 19-01 FSAGX 22.67 SGold
9.05 20-11 FOCPX 107.03 OTCPortfolio
Last week:
14.62 01-17 FHKCX 32.67 ChinaReqion
14.49 02-09 FPEMX 10.88 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
14.46 03-02 FBIOX 228.26 SBiotechnology Yes
13.87 04-32 FSPTX 175.75 STechnology Yes
12.37 05-15 FSEAX 41.22 EmergingAsia
11.82 06-04 FLATX 24.95 LatinAmerica
11.24 07-22 FEMKX 30.08 EmergingMarkets
11.11 08-06 FSDAX 154.58 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
10.78 09-10 FOCPX 108.21 OTCPortfolio Yes
10.74 10-19 FDSVX 31.49 Growth Discovery Yes
10.33 11-08 FISMX 28.72 InternationalSmallCap
10.27 12-08 FPBFX 33.25 PacificBasin
9.95 13-02 FFGCX 11.97 GlobalCommodityStock Yes
9.74 14-03 FEDDX 14.75 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
9.38 15-01 FSCSX 158.15 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
9.28 16-01 FBGRX 84.74 BlueChipGrowth Yes
9.26 17-07 FTIEX 9.06 TotalInternationalEquity
9.11 18-03 FIVFX 20.29 InternationalCapApp Yes
8.99 19-06 FIREX 11.28 InternationalRealEstate Yes
8.90 20-06 FIGRX 45.10 InternationalDiscovery

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jul17 1m+5% 3m+8% 6m+5% 12m+6% 24m+7% 36m+17% 60m+81% 120m-18%
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+3% 6m+0% 12m+7% 24m-4% 36m+9% 60m+71% 120m-11%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SBiotechnology(FBIOX)(05Sep17) from CashResrves(FDRXX)
20% – EmergingMarketsIndex – IC(FPEMX)(24Jul17) from CashResrves(FDRXX)
20% – OTCPortfolio(FOCPX)(15May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
Jul17 1m+1% 3m+2% 6m+5% 12m+5% 24m+7% 36m+16% 60m+25% 120m+22%
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+1% 6m+5% 12m+9% 24m+7% 36m+11% 60m+24% 120m+20%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

This was definitely an improvement over the last couple of weeks. The sum of all deviations, which I use to evaluate market trend, is up again and is the highest it has been since 04Aug. Among the 100 Fidelity funds I follow, last week there were 22 funds which I rated as buy. This week there are 75 funds rated as buy – deviations increased the last 2 weeks.

I had previously mention that Jim Rohrback of Investment-Models.com was offering a free 2 month subscription to his timing letter. He had indicated his Nasdaq model said sell on 10Aug, and the NYSE model said sell on 11Aug. Earlier this week I asked him to sign me up for that free offer. On Wed he sent a mid week report indicating he was still on a sell basis. After Thursday’s close, he sent a special report saying buy.

My S&P500 investment is in RSP (S&P500 EqualWeighted) which has a price of 93.60, 50 day MA of 93.15, a 200 day MA of 90.28, and a 7% stop loss is 87.99. Both RSP (S&P500 EqualWeighted) and SPY (S&P500 capitalization weighted) are now above their 50 Day moving average. SPY is doing better than RSP, which indicate the market leaders (Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Amazon) are doing better than the average stock

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2 – STechnology has a price of 175.75, a sell price 166.96, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – CQQQ – current stoploss 51.92)
IRA#2
SComputers has a price of 89.28, a sell price 84.96, a rank of of 26, and is a hold for now. (ETF – PSI – stopped out 6/12 11% gain)
OTCPortfolio has a price of 108.21, a sell price 102.80, a rank of 09, and is a hold. (ETF – MTUM – stoploss 87.02)
EmergingMarketsIndex – IC has a price of 10.88, a sell price 10.34, and a rank of 02. (ETF – EEMO – stoploss 18.67)
SBiotechnology – has a price of 228.26, a sell price TBD, a rank of 3, and is a buy. (ETF – SBIO – stoploss TBD)

Biotechnology is a super volatile sector with stocks like Gilead buying Kite Pharma for $11.9b this week at a premium of 29% over the previous week closing price. While ChinaRegion is my number one fund, it does not have an improving deviation two weeks in a row – an indication its price increase is slowing.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Purchase SBiotechnology

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
14.62 01-17 FHKCX 32.67 ChinaReqion
14.49 02-09 FPEMX 10.88 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
14.46 03-02 FBIOX 228.26 SBiotechnology Yes
13.87 04-32 FSPTX 175.75 STechnology Yes
12.37 05-15 FSEAX 41.22 EmergingAsia
11.82 06-04 FLATX 24.95 LatinAmerica
11.24 07-22 FEMKX 30.08 EmergingMarkets
11.11 08-06 FSDAX 154.58 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
10.78 09-10 FOCPX 108.21 OTCPortfolio Yes
10.74 10-19 FDSVX 31.49 Growth Discovery Yes
10.33 11-08 FISMX 28.72 InternationalSmallCap
10.27 12-08 FPBFX 33.25 PacificBasin
9.95 13-02 FFGCX 11.97 GlobalCommodityStock Yes
9.74 14-03 FEDDX 14.75 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
9.38 15-01 FSCSX 158.15 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
9.28 16-01 FBGRX 84.74 BlueChipGrowth Yes
9.26 17-07 FTIEX 9.06 TotalInternationalEquity
9.11 18-03 FIVFX 20.29 InternationalCapApp Yes
8.99 19-06 FIREX 11.28 InternationalRealEstate Yes
8.90 20-06 FIGRX 45.10 InternationalDiscovery
Last week:
15.19 01-16 FHKCX 32.58 ChinaReqion Yes
15.16 02-08 FPEMX 10.86 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC Yes
13.06 03-03 FLATX 25.07 LatinAmerica Yes
12.66 04-14 FSEAX 41.06 EmergingAsia Yes
12.32 05-31 FSPTX 172.09 STechnology Yes
11.53 06-21 FEMKX 29.98 EmergingMarkets Yes
10.54 07-07 FPBFX 33.15 PacificBasin Yes
10.47 08-07 FISMX 28.60 InternationalSmallCap
9.93 09-02 FEDDX 14.70 EmergingMarketsDiscovery Yes
9.45 10-05 FSDAX 151.39 SDefense&Aerospace
9.39 11-18 FDSVX 30.93 Growth Discovery
9.31 12-06 FTIEX 9.02 TotalInternationalEquity Yes
9.24 13-03 FSUTX 85.28 SUtilities Yes
9.24 14-01 FFGCX 11.83 GlobalCommodityStock
9.17 15-05 FIGRX 45.00 InternationalDiscovery Yes
8.96 16-09 FOCPX 105.83 OTCPortfolio
8.82 17-02 FIVFX 20.14 InternationalCapApp Yes
8.66 18-15 FSCOX 17.93 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities Yes
8.44 19-05 FIREX 11.17 InternationalRealEstate
8.22 20-01 FBIOX 214.17 SBiotechnology

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jul17 1m+5% 3m+8% 6m+5% 12m+6% 24m+7% 36m+17% 60m+81% 120m-18%
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+3% 6m+0% 12m+7% 24m-4% 36m+9% 60m+71% 120m-11%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SBiotechnology(FBIOX)(05Sep17) from CashResrves(FDRXX)
20% – EmergingMarketsIndex – IC(FPEMX)(24Jul17) from CashResrves(FDRXX)
20% – OTCPortfolio(FOCPX)(15May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
Jul17 1m+1% 3m+2% 6m+5% 12m+5% 24m+7% 36m+16% 60m+25% 120m+22%
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+1% 6m+5% 12m+9% 24m+7% 36m+11% 60m+24% 120m+20%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%