Not a good week. The sum of the deviation declined and this week only 11 of the 100 funds I follow are rated buy. Last week it was 54.
This week’s Consulo Mack WealthTrack show featured an interview with Michael Lippert manager of the Baron Opportunity Fund. Unlike most of Consulo Mack’s guests, Lippert is a growth manager rather than a value manager. The 3 stocks he mentioned, which he owns, are Amazon (AMZN), Guidewire Software (GWRE), CoStar Group (CSGP). Mr Lippert looks for stock which he thinks will grow over the next 5 year.
The 5 stocks I mentioned two weeks ago (up 100.2% to 254.5% this year) which were from a podcast – Zacks Market Edge by Tracey Ryniec – are up another 7.43% to 37.98% over the last 2 weeks. Perhaps I should listen to Tracey Ryniec more.
One indication of market peak is a peak in the total amount of margin debt and security based loans. The 2007 peak was 43% higher than the 1999 peak. The 2016 peak is 91% higher than the 2007 peak. Margin works great in an up market. You can make twice as much on a stock, minus a small amount of interest paid on the margin loan. In a down market you can lose twice as much plus the interest paid on the margin loan. That is with a dollar invested and a dollar borrowed to invest. Some investment companies leverage more, Bear Stearns which went bankrupt in March 08, was leveraged 36 to 1 or for each dollar invested they borrowed 36 to also invest.
My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 94.20, 50 day MA of 92.75, a 200 day MA of 88.82, and a 7% stop loss is 87.99. The ratio between SPY and RSP still indicates the larger capitalization stocks are doing better than the average. Generally not a positive indicator.
My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2 – STechnology has a price of 170.57, a sell price 162.49, a rank of 03, and is a hold. ( ETF – CQQQ – current stoploss 47.67 )
IRA#2
SComputers has a price of 87.86, a sell price 84.96, a rank of of 31, and is a hold. (ETF – PSI – stopped out 6/12 11% gain)
SLeasure has a price of 156.58, a sell price 156.63, a rank of 70, and is a sell. (ETF – IBUY – stoploss not allowed – I plan to hold IBUY longer, its price is 5.6% above a sell price)
OTCPortfolio has a price of 106.61, a sell price 101.39, a rank of 07, and is a hold. (ETF – MTUM – stoploss 85.81)
EmergingMarketsIndex – IC has a price of 10.61, a sell price 10.08, and a rank of 01. (ETF – EEMO – stoploss 17.85)
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell SLeasure
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
15.89 01-03 FPEMX 10.61 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
15.79 02-12 FHKCX 31.78 ChinaReqion Yes
14.23 03-27 FSPTX 170.57 STechnology
14.01 04-10 FSEAX 40.51 EmergingAsia
12.83 05-06 FBIOX 219.80 SBiotechnology
12.18 06-03 FISMX 28.41 InternationalSmallCap
11.94 07-25 FOCPX 106.61 OTCPortfolio
11.78 08-14 FDSVX 31.70 Growth Discovery
11.58 09-03 FPBFX 32.76 PacificBasin
11.17 10-17 FEMKX 29.25 EmergingMarkets
11.05 11-11 FSCOX 17.98 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
10.94 12-02 FTIEX 8.98 TotalInternationalEquity
10.86 13-01 FARNX 14.57 EventDrivenOpportunities Yes
10.57 14-01 FIGRX 44.71 InternationalDiscovery Yes
10.50 15-03 FBGRX 83.83 BlueChipGrowth
10.41 16-01 FIREX 11.16 InternationalRealEstate Yes
10.12 17-03 FSCSX 155.93 SSoftware&ITServices
10.06 18-01 FSDAX 149.03 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
9.87 19-02 FSVLX 14.44 SConsumerFinance
9.85 20-02 FCNTX 118.79 Contrafund
Last week:
16.43 01-02 FPEMX 10.57 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC Yes
15.41 02-26 FSPTX 171.04 STechnology Yes
15.25 03-11 FHKCX 31.37 ChinaReqion Yes
14.65 04-05 FBIOX 221.84 SBiotechnology Yes
14.46 05-09 FSEAX 40.37 EmergingAsia Yes
13.78 06-04 FSLBX 79.08 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement Yes
12.78 07-24 FOCPX 106.73 OTCPortfolio Yes
12.45 08-01 FSRBX 35.09 SBanking
12.37 09-13 FDSVX 31.67 Growth Discovery Yes
12.27 10-02 FISMX 28.25 InternationalSmallCap Yes
11.72 11-02 FPBFX 32.60 PacificBasin Yes
11.51 12-10 FSCOX 17.95 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities Yes
11.38 13-02 FSCSX 156.87 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
11.37 14-16 FEMKX 29.13 EmergingMarkets
11.27 15-02 FBGRX 83.95 BlueChipGrowth Yes
11.25 16-01 FAUIX 12.31 LargeCapGrowthIndex – IC Yes
11.21 17-01 FTIEX 8.95 TotalInternationalEquity Yes
11.13 18-01 FDCPX 89.43 SComputers Yes
10.90 19-01 FSVLX 14.50 SConsumerFinance Yes
10.28 20-01 FCNTX 118.64 Contrafund Yes
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+3% 6m+0% 12m+7% 24m-4% 36m+9% 60m+71% 120m-11%
May17 1m+5% 3m-5% 6m+8% 12m+12% 24m-6% 36m+18% 60m+75% 120m-6%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserve(FDRXX)(31Jul17) from SLeasure(FDLSX)
20% – EmergingMarketsIndex – IC(FPEMX)(24Jul17) from CashResrves(FDRXX)
20% – OTCPortfolio(FOCPX)(15May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+1% 6m+5% 12m+9% 24m+7% 36m+11% 60m+24% 120m+20%
May17 1m+4% 3m+2% 6m10% 12m+18% 24m+7% 36m+15% 60m+27% 120m+23%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%