Month: April 2017

Chuck Jaffe produces a daily podcast called MoneyLife. On his 4/20 podcast, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com featured GLDJ – VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF – as his ETF of the week. Lydon is a long term investor, who uses the 200 day moving average to manage trades. Following him on the podcast was Jeff Bishop of TopStockPicks.com and RagingBull.com. Bishop uses leveraged ETFs to make very short them trades. He is triple short GDXJ by owning JDST. For GDXJ, JNUG is the triple long ETF (down 32% in the last month) and JDST is the triple short ETF (up 37% in the last month). Interesting different view of junior gold minor stocks based of your intended length of holding the investment.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 91.42, 50 day MA of 90.68, a 200 day MA of 85.99 and a 7% stop loss is 85.81. This is not an investment to buy and hold but then there are no investments to buy and hold. The general rule of thumb is consider selling when an investment falls below its 50 week average and make sure you own nothing selling below both its 50 and 200 day moving average.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend Resumed” as of 24Apr. Time to invest. I really think this is just a bounce in a market headed down after a Trump bump. Remember the first year on presidential terms is generally a bad year. However I do not argue with the numbers so I am going to buy.

My current investments:
IRA#1 – STechnology has a price of 154.36, a sell price TBD, a rank of 01, and is a Buy. ( ETF – CQQQ – current stoploss TBD )
00% Cash
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 99.54, a sell price 95.96, a rank of 22, and is a hold for now. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 75.34)
SComputers has a price of 85.65, a sell price 81.36, a rank of of 02, and is a hold (ETF – PSI- current stoploss 40.31)
40% Cash
Only 11 out of the 106 funds I follow are not rated buy based on two week improving deviation.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Invest 100% in STechnology
IRA #2 – Invest 20% is STechnology

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
14.63 01-14 FSPTX 154.36 STechnology Yes
13.01 02-15 FDCPX 85.65 SComputers
12.63 03-18 FBIOX 203.85 SBiotechnology
11.46 04-05 FDLSX 152.90 SLeisure Yes
11.24 05-02 FSCSX 146.08 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
11.21 06-12 FOCPX 97.22 OTCPortfolio Yes
10.98 07-01 FNORX 49.59 Nordic Yes
10.62 08-06 FHKCX 28.37 ChinaReqion Yes
10.39 09-07 FSEAX 36.62 EmergingAsia
10.12 10-05 FBGRX 77.80 BlueChipGrowth Yes
10.04 11-04 FEMKX 26.41 EmergingMarkets Yes
9.95 12-01 FDSVX 29.46 Growth Discovery Yes
9.65 13-01 FOSFX 45.12 Overseas Yes
9.61 14-06 FLATX 22.48 LatinAmerica Yes
9.50 15-02 FNCMX 79.56 NasdaqCompositeIndex Yes
9.43 16-01 FSCOX 16.63 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities Yes
9.28 17-01 FIEUX 37.84 Europe Yes
9.18 18-15 FSCHX 158.54 SChemicals Yes
9.15 19-01 FSMEX 43.30 SMedicalEquipment&Systems Yes
9.06 20-01 FISMX 26.27 InternationalSmallCap Yes
Last week:
11.73 01-13 FSPTX 149.29 STechnology
10.59 02-14 FDCPX 83.24 SComputers
9.87 03-06 FHKCX 28.02 ChinaReqion
9.85 04-04 FDLSX 149.79 SLeisure
9.04 05-11 FOCPX 94.76 OTCPortfolio
8.96 06-17 FBIOX 195.90 SBiotechnology
8.88 07-06 FSEAX 35.92 EmergingAsia
8.87 08-42 FSELX 99.02 SSemiconductors
8.76 09-05 FSAGX 21.38 SGold
8.12 10-01 FSCSX 141.15 SSoftware&ITServices
8.07 11-03 FEMKX 25.80 EmergingMarkets
7.92 12-14 FSCHX 155.95 SChemicals
7.66 13-05 FLATX 21.97 LatinAmerica
7.65 14-04 FBGRX 75.65 BlueChipGrowth
7.57 15-01 FDSVX 28.67 Growth Discovery
7.54 16-01- FSDAX 137.01 SDefense&Aerospace
7.54 17-01 FNCMX 77.74 NasdaqCompositeIndex
7.47 18-09 FWRLX 9.27 SWireless
7.47 19-05 FEDDX 13.20 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
7.30 20-01 FCPGX 22.40 SmallCapGrowth

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Feb17 1m+3% 3m10% 6m+3% 12m+36% 24m+0% 36m+15% 60m+59% 120m-4%
Mar17 1m-4% 3m-3% 6m-4% 12m+27% 24m-11% 36m+13% 60m+41% 120m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(10Apr17) from SBiotechnology(FBIOX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Feb17 1m+4% 3m+8% 6m+7% 12m21% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+18% 120m+31%
Mar17 1m-1% 3m+4% 6m+4% 12m+18% 24m+7% 36m+13% 60m+12% 120m+29%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

Macro Voices (macrovoices.com) produces a weekly podcast which is outstanding. The 19Apr podcast featured an interview with Danielle DiMartino Booth author of “Fed Up: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America.” One of the comments about her book is “DiMartino Booth found a cabal of unelected academics (at the Fed) who made decisions without the slightest understanding of the real world, just a slavish devotion to their theoretical models.” In the interview she points out that the Fed’s bailing out of the banks and the Fed’s subsequent zero interest rates (killing the income of those who save) has produced a pension bubble bomb due to hit in the next decade. I wrote about this on 21 Dec with a reference to //www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2016/12/20/calpers-cuts-pension-benefits-for-first-time.html. Pensions plan on a return of ~6% investing primarily in bonds. Bonds are now yielding about 3% and cannot go much higher without bankrupting the US due to the 20T debt we have. Even the finance minister of Germany has pointed out that next year German insurance companies will start going out of business due to the zero interest rates the European Union has. Bottom line is that if you think you will have a pension, MAYBE you will. It was ~30 years ago one of my friend’s dad had his company pension (went bankrupt) taken over by the US Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp. He ended up taking an 85% cut in monthly benefits.

Returns for March IRA#1 -4%, IRA#2 -1%, QQQ 2%, SPY/RSP 0%, DWTR -5%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 -3%, IRA#2 4%, QQQ 11%, SPY/RSP 5%, DWTR -2%.
For the last 6 months, IRA#1 -4%, IRA#2 4%, QQQ 12%, SPY/RSP 9%, DWTR -7%.
For the last 12 months, IRA#1 27%, IRA#2 18%, QQQ 17%, SPY/RSP 10%, DWTR -5%
March portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – None, Invested in FSRBX.
IRA#2 – Sold FSRFX, FSRBX 03/28 – Invested in FSELX, FBIOX, FDCPX
QQQ – None – Invested in QQQ
SPY/RSP – NONE – Invested in RSP
DWTR – Sold DWTR 03/28 – Invested in cash

There are a couple of interesting articles at https://stockcharts.com/articles/. One from yesterday indicated the Nasdaq 100 trend model now has a short term, intermediate term, and long term buy signal. In another article from today, Gatis Rose finds several of Fidelity Select funds interesting: AirTransport, Automotive, Chemicals, Financial, Energy, and EnvironmentalAlternativeEnergy.

Larry Fink, CEO and Chairman of Blackrock which manages $5.4T in assets, said on Wall Street Week tonight that by analsing communications on the internet with word analysis Blackrock has found that when employees are happy with their company, the company stock does well. When employees are unhappy with their company, the company stock underperforms.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 90.50, 50 day MA of 90.50, a 200 day MA of 85.73, and a 7% stop loss is 85.81. This is not an investment to buy and hold but then there are no investments to buy and hold. The general rule of thumb is consider selling when an investment falls below its 50 week average and make sure you own nothing selling below both its 50 and 200 day moving average.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend Under Pressure” as of 21Mar. Not a time to invest.

My current investments:
IRA#1 – not invested – 100% cash
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 99.02, a sell price 95.96, a rank of 08, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 74.14)
SComputers has a price of 83.24, a sell price 80.07, a rank of of 02, and is a hold (ETF – PSI- current stoploss 38.85)
60% Cash
Not one of my top 20 funds has an improved deviation for the last two weeks. That is one of the reasons I am buying nothing.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
11.73 01-13 FSPTX 149.29 STechnology
10.59 02-14 FDCPX 83.24 SComputers
9.87 03-06 FHKCX 28.02 ChinaReqion
9.85 04-04 FDLSX 149.79 SLeisure
9.04 05-11 FOCPX 94.76 OTCPortfolio
8.96 06-17 FBIOX 195.90 SBiotechnology
8.88 07-06 FSEAX 35.92 EmergingAsia
8.87 08-42 FSELX 99.02 SSemiconductors
8.76 09-05 FSAGX 21.38 SGold
8.12 10-01 FSCSX 141.15 SSoftware&ITServices
8.07 11-03 FEMKX 25.80 EmergingMarkets
7.92 12-14 FSCHX 155.95 SChemicals
7.66 13-05 FLATX 21.97 LatinAmerica
7.65 14-04 FBGRX 75.65 BlueChipGrowth
7.57 15-01 FDSVX 28.67 Growth Discovery
7.54 16-01- FSDAX 137.01 SDefense&Aerospace
7.54 17-01 FNCMX 77.74 NasdaqCompositeIndex
7.47 18-09 FWRLX 9.27 SWireless
7.47 19-05 FEDDX 13.20 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
7.30 20-01 FCPGX 22.40 SmallCapGrowth
Last week:
14.12 01-04 FSAGX 22.33 SGold
11.14 02-13 FDCPX 83.19 SComputers
10.26 03-16 FBIOX 197.30 SBiotechnology
9.79 04-12 FSPTX 145.80 STechnology
9.58 05-05 FHKCX 27.80 ChinaReqion
8.90 06-05 FSEAX 35.76 EmergingAsia
8.05 07-10 FOCPX 93.45 OTCPortfolio
7.89 08-08 FWRLX 9.27 SWireless
7.40 09-04 FEDDX 13.14 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
7.24 10-03 FDLSX 145.46 SLeisure
7.23 11-02 FEMKX 25.49 EmergingMarkets
6.89 12-41 FSELX 96.77 SSemiconductors
6.81 13-01 FISMX 25.51 InternationalSmallCap
6.78 14-02 FTEMX 11.88 TotalEmergingMarkets
6.62 15-04 FLATX 21.67 LatinAmerica
6.57 16-13 FSCHX 153.36 SChemicals
6.50 17-01 FPBFX 29.32 PacificBasin
6.45 18-03 FBGRX 74.51 BlueChipGrowth
6.32 19-01 FSUTX 77.64 SUtilities
6.32 20-01 FPHAX 18.13 SPharmaceuticals

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
Feb17 1m+3% 3m10% 6m+3% 12m+36% 24m+0% 36m+15% 60m+59% 120m-4%
Mar17 1m-4% 3m-3% 6m-4% 12m+27% 24m-11% 36m+13% 60m+41% 120m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(10Apr17) from SBiotechnology(FBIOX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Feb17 1m+4% 3m+8% 6m+7% 12m21% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+18% 120m+31%
Mar17 1m-1% 3m+4% 6m+4% 12m+18% 24m+7% 36m+13% 60m+12% 120m+29%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

At the beginning of the year the projections for the 1st qtr GDP was 3+% – a good number. Now with the help of no quick tax cuts, no ACA replacement, etc. optimism is fading. The current projections for 1st qtr is 1+%. How will the market do with the economy barely improving?

There is an article on the “DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap April 13, 2017” at https://stockcharts.com/articles/ which says the “S&P 500 earnings results for 2016 Q4 are in, and the market is still grossly overvalued.” They also go on to state the intermediate term and long term trends are both bullish even though we are in the 7th week of a corrections.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 89.55, 50 day MA of 90.30, a 200 day MA of 85.45, and a 7% stop loss is 85.81. This is not an investment to buy and hold but then there are no investments to buy and hold. The general rule of thumb is consider selling when an investment falls below its to day moving average and make sure you own nothing selling below both its 50 and 200 day moving average.

Many years ago I decided to hold FSAGX (SGold) during a down market. It turns out I lost money. Seems when the market starts to go down every fund gets sold. FSAGX is the best fund going, THIS week.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend Under Pressure” as of 21Mar. Not a time to invest.

My current investments:
IRA#1 – not invested – 100% cash
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 103.87, a sell price 99.39, a rank of 03, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 74.14)
SComputers has a price of 85.38, a sell price 81.71, a rank of of 01, and is a hold (ETF – PSI- current stoploss 38.85)
60% cash

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
14.12 01-04 FSAGX 22.33 SGold
11.14 02-13 FDCPX 83.19 SComputers
10.26 03-16 FBIOX 197.30 SBiotechnology
9.79 04-12 FSPTX 145.80 STechnology
9.58 05-05 FHKCX 27.80 ChinaReqion
8.90 06-05 FSEAX 35.76 EmergingAsia
8.05 07-10 FOCPX 93.45 OTCPortfolio
7.89 08-08 FWRLX 9.27 SWireless
7.40 09-04 FEDDX 13.14 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
7.24 10-03 FDLSX 145.46 SLeisure
7.23 11-02 FEMKX 25.49 EmergingMarkets
6.89 12-41 FSELX 96.77 SSemiconductors
6.81 13-01 FISMX 25.51 InternationalSmallCap
6.78 14-02 FTEMX 11.88 TotalEmergingMarkets
6.62 15-04 FLATX 21.67 LatinAmerica
6.57 16-13 FSCHX 153.36 SChemicals
6.50 17-01 FPBFX 29.32 PacificBasin
6.45 18-03 FBGRX 74.51 BlueChipGrowth
6.32 19-01 FSUTX 77.64 SUtilities
6.32 20-01 FPHAX 18.13 SPharmaceuticals
Last week:
12.43 01-12 FDCPX 85.38 SComputers
11.86 02-11 FSPTX 152.73 STechnology
11.18 03-40 FSELX 103.87 SSemiconductors
10.79 04-03 FSAGX 21.56 SGold
10.57 05-04 FHKCX 27.91 ChinaReqion
10.36 06-15 FBIOX 196.40 SBiotechnology
10.31 07-12 FSCHX 164.66 SChemicals
9.26 08-09 FOCPX 94.10 OTCPortfolio
9.17 09-04 FSEAX 35.68 EmergingAsia
9.10 10-07 FWRLX 9.38 SWireless
8.60 11-02 FARNX 13.79 EventDrivenOpportunities
8.48 12-03 FLATX 21.97 LatinAmerica
8.23 13-03 FEDDX 13.19 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
7.98 14-02 FDLSX 145.91 SLeisure
7.76 15-02 FBGRX 75.17 BlueChipGrowth
7.71 16-08 FNCMX 77.31 NasdaqCompositeIndex
7.59 17-01 FEMKX 25.48 EmergingMarkets
7.38 18-09 FSLEX 24.09 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
7.35 19-01 FTEMX 11.90 TotalEmergingMarkets
7.14 20-01 FSCSX 142.51 SSoftware&ITServices

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
Feb17 1m+3% 3m10% 6m+3% 12m+36% 24m+0% 36m+15% 60m+59% 120m-4%
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+1% 12m+32% 24m+2% 36m+14% 60m+56% 120m-7%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(10Apr17) from SBiotechnology(FBIOX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Feb17 1m+4% 3m+8% 6m+7% 12m21% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+18% 120m+31%
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+0% 12m16% 24m+10% 36m+12% 60m+17% 120m+20%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

Fidelity’s incompetence struck again. Friday about 40 of Fidelity funds had a distribution and on Fidelity’s web site where it says “Distributions for Fidelity Funds Get information on the most recent dividends and capital gains for all funds managed by Fidelity.” there was NO current data. Last December the list was wrong on 09Dec, missing on 16Dec and 23Dec, and incomplete on 30Dec. In December I called twice each weekend and they never did fix it. This weekend only one call. The Fidelity reps to not have a clue about what is listed in their web site about their funds and are of NO help. They claim they will report it, but after the first call last December it only got worse.

“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com is no more. They changed when and how they produce reports. There is an article on the “DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap April 7, 2017” at https://stockcharts.com/articles/ which says the intermediate and long term market trend is still bullish.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 90.50, 50 day MA of 90.12, a 200 day MA of 85.20, and a 7% stop loss is 85.81. This is not an investment to buy and hold but then there are no investments to buy and hold.
On the NYSE from a high of 72%+ in Feb, the number of stocks showing bullish action has fallen to 65%. On the Nasdaq the number has fallen from 67% to 60%.
This week on the Macro Voices podcast, Juliette Declercq indicated the Trump bump has run its course. The latest market action seems to indicate she is right.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend Under Pressure” as of 21Mar. Not a time to invest.

My current investments:
IRA#1 – not invested – 100% cash
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 103.87, a sell price 99.39, a rank of 03, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 74.14)
SBiotechnology has a price of 196.40, a sell price 197.59, a rank of 06, and is a SELL. (ETF – XBI – current stoploss 67.26)
SComputers has a price of 85.38, a sell price 81.71, a rank of of 01, and is a hold (ETF – PSI- current stoploss 38.85)
40% cash – 60% cash after Monday.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell SBiotechnology

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
12.43 01-12 FDCPX 85.38 SComputers
11.86 02-11 FSPTX 152.73 STechnology
11.18 03-40 FSELX 103.87 SSemiconductors
10.79 04-03 FSAGX 21.56 SGold
10.57 05-04 FHKCX 27.91 ChinaReqion
10.36 06-15 FBIOX 196.40 SBiotechnology
10.31 07-12 FSCHX 164.66 SChemicals
9.26 08-09 FOCPX 94.10 OTCPortfolio
9.17 09-04 FSEAX 35.68 EmergingAsia
9.10 10-07 FWRLX 9.38 SWireless
8.60 11-02 FARNX 13.79 EventDrivenOpportunities
8.48 12-03 FLATX 21.97 LatinAmerica
8.23 13-03 FEDDX 13.19 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
7.98 14-02 FDLSX 145.91 SLeisure
7.76 15-02 FBGRX 75.17 BlueChipGrowth
7.71 16-08 FNCMX 77.31 NasdaqCompositeIndex
7.59 17-01 FEMKX 25.48 EmergingMarkets
7.38 18-09 FSLEX 24.09 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
7.35 19-01 FTEMX 11.90 TotalEmergingMarkets
7.14 20-01 FSCSX 142.51 SSoftware&ITServices
Last week:
14.01 01-11 FDCPX 86.01 SComputers
13.86 02-14 FBIOX 201.53 SBiotechnology
12.65 03-39 FSELX 104.62 SSemiconductors
12.61 04-10 FSPTX 152.79 STechnology
11.32 05-11 FSCHX 165.26 SChemicals
10.09 06-06 FWRLX 9.42 SWireless
9.87 07-08 FOCPX 94.16 OTCPortfolio
9.41 08-01 FARNX 13.83 EventDrivenOpportunities
9.31 09-03 FHKCX 27.44 ChinaReqion
8.81 10-01 FDLSX 146.56 SLeisure Portfolio Yes
8.75 11-07 FNCMX 77.74 NasdaqCompositeIndex
8.65 12-03 FSEAX 35.34 EmergingAsia
8.63 13-02 FSAGX 21.02 SGold
8.62 14-02 FLATX 21.90 LatinAmerica
8.51 15-20 FSHCX 88.66 SHealthCareServices
8.47 16-08 FSLEX 24.24 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
8.46 17-02 FEDDX 13.16 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
8.42 18-01 FBGRX 75.32 BlueChipGrowth
8.22 19-01 FSRBX 32.25 SBanking
8.13 20-01 FCPGX 22.35 SmallCapGrowth

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
Feb17 1m+3% 3m10% 6m+3% 12m+36% 24m+0% 36m+15% 60m+59% 120m-4%
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+1% 12m+32% 24m+2% 36m+14% 60m+56% 120m-7%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(10Apr17) from SBiotechnology(FBIOX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Feb17 1m+4% 3m+8% 6m+7% 12m21% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+18% 120m+31%
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+0% 12m16% 24m+10% 36m+12% 60m+17% 120m+20%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

A nice week – not a good week. The various emerging market funds retreated and the rest of the funds increased a little. Only two funds are on the potential buy list out of the 110 I follow – InternationalDiscovery #83 and SLeasure #10.
One of the more interesting podcasts I’ve found is Macro Voices. They present an interesting view aspects of the market. It is well worth a listen.

“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com:
On Friday, 24Mar, the short term outlook is neutral to bearish, intermediate term outlook is bearish, long term outlook bullish.
On Friday, 31Mar, the short term outlook is neutral to bullish, intermediate term outlook is neutral, long term outlook bullish.

My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 90.82, 50 day MA of 89.90, a 200 day MA of 84.92, and a 7% stop loss is 85.81. This is not an investment to buy and hold but then there are no investments to buy and hold.
Over the last 3 months, SPY (capitalization weighted S&P500) has outperformed RPS (equal weighted S&P500). This is a little ominous because it suggests the larger 500 are performing better than the average 500. Often the leading stocks continue to go up while the average stocks go down and eventually the leading stocks follow. On the NYSE from a high of 72%+ in Feb, the number of stocks showing bullish action has fallen to 65%. On the Nasdaq the number has fallen from 67% to 61%. Just something to watch.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend Under Pressure” as of 21Mar. Not a time to invest.

My current investments:
IRA#1 – not invested – 100% cash
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 104.62, a sell price 99.39, a rank of 03, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 74.14)
SBiotechnology has a price of 201.53, a sell price 197.59, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – XBI – current stoploss 67.26)
SComputers has a price of 56.01, a sell price 81.71, a rank of of 01, and is a hold (ETF – PSI- current stoploss 38.85)
60% mutual funds – 40% cash

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2
weeks).
This week:
14.01 01-11 FDCPX 86.01 SComputers
13.86 02-14 FBIOX 201.53 SBiotechnology
12.65 03-39 FSELX 104.62 SSemiconductors
12.61 04-10 FSPTX 152.79 STechnology
11.32 05-11 FSCHX 165.26 SChemicals
10.09 06-06 FWRLX 9.42 SWireless
9.87 07-08 FOCPX 94.16 OTCPortfolio
9.41 08-01 FARNX 13.83 EventDrivenOpportunities
9.31 09-03 FHKCX 27.44 ChinaReqion
8.81 10-01 FDLSX 146.56 SLeisure Portfolio Yes
8.75 11-07 FNCMX 77.74 NasdaqCompositeIndex
8.65 12-03 FSEAX 35.34 EmergingAsia
8.63 13-02 FSAGX 21.02 SGold
8.62 14-02 FLATX 21.90 LatinAmerica
8.51 15-20 FSHCX 88.66 SHealthCareServices
8.47 16-08 FSLEX 24.24 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
8.46 17-02 FEDDX 13.16 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
8.42 18-01 FBGRX 75.32 BlueChipGrowth
8.22 19-01 FSRBX 32.25 SBanking
8.13 20-01 FCPGX 22.35 SmallCapGrowth
Last week:
13.75 01-13 FBIOX 199.87 SBiotechnology
12.36 02-10 FDCPX 84.14 SComputers
12.33 03-38 FSELX 103.63 SSemiconductors
12.28 04-09 FSPTX 151.34 STechnology
10.57 05-02 FHKCX 27.62 ChinaReqion Yes
10.33 06-05 FWRLX 9.39 SWireless
10.16 07-01 FSAGX 21.22 SGold
9.46 08-02 FSEAX 35.44 EmergingAsia Yes
9.35 09-10 FSCHX 161.36 SChemicals
9.11 10-01 FEMEX 8.94 EmergingEMEA Yes
8.61 11-01 FEDDX 13.12 EmergingMarketsDiscovery Yes
8.32 12-01 FEMKX 25.45 EmergingMarkets Yes
8.28 13-01 FTEMX 11.91 TotalEmergingMarkets Yes
8.25 14-07 FOCPX 92.29 OTCPortfolio
8.24 15-19 FSHCX 88.04 SHealthCareServices
8.14 16-07 FSLEX 24.06 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
8.01 17-01 FLATX 21.68 LatinAmerica
7.72 18-01 FPEMX 9.58 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC Yes
7.69 19-06 FNCMX 76.63 NasdaqCompositeIndex
7.68 20-01 FSDCX 34.39 SCommunicationsEquipment

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
Feb17 1m+3% 3m10% 6m+3% 12m+36% 24m+0% 36m+15% 60m+59% 120m-4%
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+1% 12m+32% 24m+2% 36m+14% 60m+56% 120m-7%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – SBiotechnology(FBIOX)(16Jan17) from SComputers(FDCPX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Feb17 1m+4% 3m+8% 6m+7% 12m21% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+18% 120m+31%
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+0% 12m16% 24m+10% 36m+12% 60m+17% 120m+20%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%