28 October 2016

Returns for the month of September were mixed.
In September IRA#1 1%, IRA#2 2%, PDP PIE PIZ DWAS 0%, QQQ 2%, SPY/RSP 0%, DWTR -4%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 8%, IRA#2 3%, PDPetc 3%, QQQ 10%, SPY/RSP 0%, DWTR -3%.
For the last 6 months, IRA#1 32%, IRS#2 13%, PDPetc 1%, QQQ 5%, SPY/RSP 1%, DWTR 2%.
September portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – None – Invested in FSMEX
IRA#2 – Sold FLATX 9/19 – Invested in FSELX, FSNGX, FSMEX, cash
PDP PIE PIZ DWAS – None – Invested in PDP, PIE, PIZ
QQQ – None – Invested in QQQ
SPY/RSP – NONE – Invested in RSP
DWTR – Sold DWTR 9/13 – Invested in cash

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend Under Pressure” as of 11Oct. Not a time to invest.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Systems has a price of 39.77, a sell price of 41.36, a rank of 94, and is a sell. (ETF – IHI stopped out at 136.18)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 90.37, a sell price 88.45, a rank of 02, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 64.75)
SNaturalGas has a price of 26.66, a sell price 25.88, a rank of 06, and is a hold. (ETF – PSCE – current stoploss 17.58)
SComputers has a price of 76.37, a sell price 73.98, a rank of 07, and is a hold. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 105.48)
SEnergyService has a price of 47.71, a sell price 47.20, a rank of 28, and is a hold (for now). (ETF – XES – stopped out at 18.54)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – sell SMedicalEquipment&Systems
IRA #2 – sell SMedicalEquipment&Systems

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
11.67 01-19 FLATX 22.47 LatinAmerica
11.61 02-17 FSELX 90.37 SSemiconductors
7.66 03-15 FSCSX 136.24 SSoftware&ITServices
7.51 04-15 FSPTX 133.46 STechnology
7.30 05-02 FSRBX 26.51 SBanking Yes
6.72 06-05 FSNGX 26.58 SNaturalGas
6.64 07-13 FDCPX 76.37 SComputers
6.34 08-03 FJSCX 15.54 JapanSmallerCompanies Yes
6.27 09-20 FTEMX 11.36 TotalEmergingMarkets
5.07 10-04 FJPNX 12.57 Japan Yes
5.00 11-05 FSENX 43.03 SEnergy
4.87 12-15 FSDCX 31.04 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
4.28 13-02 FFGCX 10.76 GlobalCommodity Stock
4.16 14-01 FLCSX 27.96 LargeCapStock
4.11 15-01 FEMEX 8.04 EmergingEMEA
4.10 16-05 FNARX 28.57 SNaturalResources
3.96 17-01 FSDAX 123.73 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
3.92 18-01 FSPCX 71.38 SInsurance
3.88 19-01 FWRLX 8.88 SWireless
3.83 20-01 FGRTX 16.59 MegaCapStock Yes
Last week
13.45 01-18 FLATX 22.69 LatinAmerica Yes
11.74 02-16 FSELX 89.92 SSemiconductors
9.40 03-04 FSNGX 27.15 SNaturalGas
8.73 04-14 FSPTX 134.44 STechnology
8.02 05-04 FSENX 44.15 SEnergy
7.99 06-14 FSCSX 136.11 SSoftware&ITServices
7.76 07-03 FSESX 49.68 SEnergyService Yes
7.47 08-19 FTEMX 11.45 TotalEmergingMarkets
7.25 09-04 FNARX 29.37 SNaturalResources
6.29 10-02 FJSCX 15.48 JapanSmallerCompanies
6.13 11-01 FSRBX 26.12 SBanking
6.10 12-12 FDCPX 75.72 SComputers
5.42 13-28 FSMEX 41.86 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
5.26 14-14 FOCPX 86.10 OTCPortfolio
5.21 15-01 FEMKX 24.55 EmergingMarkets
5.20 16-01 FFGCX 10.83 GlobalCommodity Stock
5.06 17-07 FISMX 24.50 InternationalSmallCap
4.85 18-03 FJPNX 12.51 Japan
4.77 19-14 FSDCX 30.93 SCommunicationsEquipment
4.75 20-04 FNCMX 69.47 NasdaqCompositeIndex

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(31Oct16) from SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)
Sep16 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+32% 12m+23% 24m+9% 36m+22% 60m52% 120m+6%
Aug16 1m+1% 3m+14% 6m+31% 12m+22% 24m+7% 36m+29% 60m51% 120m+9%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(31Oct16) from SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)
20% – SEnergyService(FSESX)(10Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SNaturalGas(FSNGX)(22Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Sep16 1m+2% 3m+3% 6m+13% 12m+7% 24m+9% 36m+8% 60m+20% 120m+20%
Aug16 1m-2% 3m+8% 6m+13% 12m+6% 24m+6% 36m+9% 60m+18% 120m+22%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

21 October 2016

One radio show which provides a lot of market information is Investors Edge. It is on at 6:06 each weekday on various radio stations, the Biztalkradio web site, the Biztalkradio app (cell phone or tablet), and later at Garyk.com, biztalkradio app/web site, and podcast. Gary Kaltbaum indicates as long as the banks, oil, and semiconductor stocks are doing well, the market will not go down. He also has a lot of comments about the crook(H) and the chameleon(D).
Harry Dent was on the Tuesday podcast of Future Money Trends. Basically the crash, caused by excessive debt, is coming after the third bubble (2001, 2008, 2017) bursts.
Wall Street Week mentioned the US national debt on the Friday evening show. With the current rates on bonds, the age old rule of thumb to invest in stocks and bonds does not work. The investment in bonds was intended to be a safe way to make money. Bonds are still maybe safe, but they do not make money. In fact the latest rules from the Governmental Accounting Standards Board, GASP, requires state and local governments to add billions of dollars in retirement obligations to their balance sheet in 2017. Basically that means most cities and states will show a negative balance sheet. If the US government did that for the national debt will not be 20T, but 120T to 200T when social security, medicare, etc. obligations are added. What will the value of city, state, and US bonds be when the debt is included on the balance sheet and they are basically bankrupt?

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend Under Pressure” as of 11Oct. Not a time to invest.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 41.86, a sell price of 41.36, a rank of 13, and is a hold. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 136.18)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 89.92, a sell price 88.45, a rank of 02, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 64.75)
SNaturalGas has a price of 27.15, a sell price 25.88, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – PSCE – current stoploss 17.58)
SComputers has a price of 75.72, a sell price 73.98, a rank of 12, and is a hold. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 105.48)
SEnergyService has a price of 49.68, a sell price 47.20, a rank of 07, and is a nold. (ETF – XES – current stoploss 18.54)
Yes I have updated the stoploss numbers and yes they did not change. They only change when there is a new high close. This was a week of very little price change.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
13.45 01-18 FLATX 22.69 LatinAmerica Yes
11.74 02-16 FSELX 89.92 SSemiconductors
9.40 03-04 FSNGX 27.15 SNaturalGas
8.73 04-14 FSPTX 134.44 STechnology
8.02 05-04 FSENX 44.15 SEnergy
7.99 06-14 FSCSX 136.11 SSoftware&ITServices
7.76 07-03 FSESX 49.68 SEnergyService Yes
7.47 08-19 FTEMX 11.45 TotalEmergingMarkets
7.25 09-04 FNARX 29.37 SNaturalResources
6.29 10-02 FJSCX 15.48 JapanSmallerCompanies
6.13 11-01 FSRBX 26.12 SBanking
6.10 12-12 FDCPX 75.72 SComputers
5.42 13-28 FSMEX 41.86 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
5.26 14-14 FOCPX 86.10 OTCPortfolio
5.21 15-01 FEMKX 24.55 EmergingMarkets
5.20 16-01 FFGCX 10.83 GlobalCommodity Stock
5.06 17-07 FISMX 24.50 InternationalSmallCap
4.85 18-03 FJPNX 12.51 Japan
4.77 19-14 FSDCX 30.93 SCommunicationsEquipment
4.75 20-04 FNCMX 69.47 NasdaqCompositeIndex
Last week
11.97 01-15 FSELX 89.55 SSemiconductors
10.31 02-03 FSNGX 27.24 SNaturalGas
10.24 03-17 FLATX 21.89 LatinAmerica Yes
8.77 04-03 FSENX 44.27 SEnergy
7.85 05-13 FSPTX 132.74 STechnology
7.66 06-03 FNARX 29.37 SNaturalResources
7.29 07-11 FDCPX 76.32 SComputers
7.01 08-02 FSESX 49.13 SEnergyService Yes
6.28 09-13 FSCSX 133.39 SSoftware&ITServices
6.10 10-18 FTEMX 11.26 TotalEmergingMarkets
6.08 11-27 FSMEX 42.00 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
5.12 12-01 FJSCX 15.26 JapanSmallerCompanies
4.96 13-13 FOCPX 85.62 OTCPortfolio
4.87 14-01 FSRFX 81.27 STransportation
4.79 15-01 FSPCX 71.70 SInsurance
4.74 16-06 FISMX 24.36 InternationalSmallCap
4.49 17-06 FPBFX 28.89 PacificBasin
4.27 18-02 FJPNX 12.41 Japan
4.19 19-13 FSDCX 30.68 SCommunicationsEquipment
4.14 20-03 FNCMX 68.89 NasdaqCompositeIndex

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Aug16 1m+1% 3m+14% 6m+31% 12m+22% 24m+7% 36m+29% 60m51% 120m+9%
Jul16 1m-6% 3m-7% 6m+16% 12m-10% 24-1% 36m+13% 60m+8% 120m-2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SEnergyService(FSESX)(10Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SNaturalGas(FSNGX)(22Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Aug16 1m-2% 3m+8% 6m+13% 12m+6% 24m+6% 36m+9% 60m+18% 120m+22%
Jul16 1m-6% 3m-1% 6m+4% 12m-9% 24m-1% 36m-9% 60m+2% 120m+14%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

14 October 2016

This has not been a great week. Generally down. This is the final weekend of filing your 1040 taxes if you had an extension. It is a busy weekend.
An interesting ETF of the week featured on Chuck Jaffe’s MoneyLife show was GLD. Tom Lydon of ETFTrends said that GLD (a gold ETF) had fallen below its long term trend line and it is probably a good trade to catch a short term up trend. The Fidelity gold fund I follow is Select Gold (FSAGX) and ranks 119 of 120 on my best funds list.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend Under Pressure” as of 11Oct. Not a time to invest.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 42.00, a sell price of 41.36, a rank of 11, and is a hold. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 136.18)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 89.55, a sell price 88.45, a rank of 01, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 64.75)
SNaturalGas has a price of 27.23, a sell price 25.87, a rank of 06, and is a hold. (ETF – PSCE – current stoploss 17.58)
SComputers has a price of 76.32, a sell price 73.98, a rank of 07, and is a hold. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 105.48)
SEnergyService has a price of 49.13, a sell price 46.67, a rank of 08, and is a nold. (ETF – XES – current stoploss 18.54)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
11.97 01-15 FSELX 89.55 SSemiconductors
10.31 02-03 FSNGX 27.24 SNaturalGas
10.24 03-17 FLATX 21.89 LatinAmerica Yes
8.77 04-03 FSENX 44.27 SEnergy
7.85 05-13 FSPTX 132.74 STechnology
7.66 06-03 FNARX 29.37 SNaturalResources
7.29 07-11 FDCPX 76.32 SComputers
7.01 08-02 FSESX 49.13 SEnergyService Yes
6.28 09-13 FSCSX 133.39 SSoftware&ITServices
6.10 10-18 FTEMX 11.26 TotalEmergingMarkets
6.08 11-27 FSMEX 42.00 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
5.12 12-01 FJSCX 15.26 JapanSmallerCompanies
4.96 13-13 FOCPX 85.62 OTCPortfolio
4.87 14-01 FSRFX 81.27 STransportation
4.79 15-01 FSPCX 71.70 SInsurance
4.74 16-06 FISMX 24.36 InternationalSmallCap
4.49 17-06 FPBFX 28.89 PacificBasin
4.27 18-02 FJPNX 12.41 Japan
4.19 19-13 FSDCX 30.68 SCommunicationsEquipment
4.14 20-03 FNCMX 68.89 NasdaqCompositeIndex
Last week
17.15 01-14 FSELX 93.10 SSemiconductors
10.87 02-02 FSNGX 27.23 SNaturalGas Yes
10.29 03-12 FSPTX 135.18 STechnology
10.07 04-12 FSDCX 32.34 SCommunicationsEquipment
9.89 05-10 FDCPX 77.87 SComputers
9.77 06-16 FLATX 21.68 LatinAmerica
9.55 07-02 FSENX 44.38 SEnergy
8.93 08-26 FSMEX 42.99 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
8.24 09-17 FTEMX 11.45 TotalEmergingMarkets
8.13 10-02 FNARX 29.38 SNaturalResources
7.85 11-12 FSCSX 134.91 SSoftware&ITServices
6.70 12-01 FSESX 48.81 SEnergyService Yes
6.57 13-01 FSRBX 26.09 SBanking
6.39 14-12 FOCPX 86.56 OTCPortfolio
6.34 15-05 FISMX 24.67 InternationalSmallCap
6.33 16-05 FPBFX 29.33 PacificBasin
6.10 17-01 FSLBX 61.36 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
6.09 18-01 FEMKX 24.64 EmergingMarkets
5.96 19-02 FNCMX 69.94 NasdaqCompositeIndex
5.69 20-04 FJPNX 12.55 Japan

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Aug16 1m+1% 3m+14% 6m+31% 12m+22% 24m+7% 36m+29% 60m51% 120m+9%
Jul16 1m-6% 3m-7% 6m+16% 12m-10% 24-1% 36m+13% 60m+8% 120m-2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SEnergyService(FSESX)(10Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SNaturalGas(FSNGX)(22Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Aug16 1m-2% 3m+8% 6m+13% 12m+6% 24m+6% 36m+9% 60m+18% 120m+22%
Jul16 1m-6% 3m-1% 6m+4% 12m-9% 24m-1% 36m-9% 60m+2% 120m+14%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

07 October 2016

So the DJIA was down 100 on Thursday when one of the head bankers in the EU said there was a guarantee that the EU would continue printing money, and the market went up 100 in the next 5 minutes. We are no longer in a market controlled by fear and greed, we are controlled by the various governmental central bankers. It is really amazing how much of markets countries now own. For example Switzerland has just over $1B invested in Apple. It is an investment, unlike those countries who buy their countries stock to keep the market up. The bank of Japan owns 60% of the ETF representing the Nikkei 225 stock average which helps keep the market up.
One of the more interesting aspects of this weeks market is the drop in the price of gold. The Fidelity Fund FSAGX fell by 13% this week. I was listening to a podcast Follow the Money where the gold guy claimed it was only paper gold price (stock market investments) not the physical gold price which went down. However the physical gold ETF dropped as much as FSAGX.
The MoneyLife podcast on 03Oct included an interview with Harry Dent Jr. Dent has been claiming a market drop of about 70% for several years. His latest book is titled “The Sale of a Lifetime: How the Great Bubble Burst of 2017 Can Make You Rich.” He thinks there are many catalysts to cause this and the top 3 of these are: 1. Deutsche Bank and other EU banks. 2. The oil frackers could only exist with zero interest rates and oil prices above 100. (He thinks oil is going to $20.) 3. The China real estate market where new SMALL apartments in Shenzhen cost $2000 per square foot – that is 66 sq for $132,000.
On Wall Street Week Steve Einhorn, a co-founder of a major money management firm, says there are 5 requirements which are always met at a market top. None of the 5 are met at this time. I guess I should not be concerned.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed uptrend” as of 21Sep. Time to invest. I continue to be surprised that the market is going up. There are so many negatives but as long as the various countries continue to keep rates low or negative it looks like the market will continue up.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 42.99, a sell price of 41.36, a rank of 08, and is a hold. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 135.87)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 93.10, a sell price 88.45, a rank of 01, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 64.75)
SNaturalGas has a price of 27.23, a sell price 25.87, a rank of 06, and is a hold. (ETF – PSCE – current stoploss 17.35)
SComputers has a price of 77.87, a sell price 73.98, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 105.48)
SEnergyService has a price of 48.81, a sell price TBD, a rank of 12, and is a buy. (ETF – XES – purchased on 10/10)
With all the problems in the world I am concerned about this weeks purchase. However, the numbers say buy so I am, just concerned. SEnergyService is one of 5 funds, out of the 120 I follow, which is a buy.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Purchase SEnergyService FSESX

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
17.15 01-14 FSELX 93.10 SSemiconductors
10.87 02-02 FSNGX 27.23 SNaturalGas Yes
10.29 03-12 FSPTX 135.18 STechnology
10.07 04-12 FSDCX 32.34 SCommunicationsEquipment
9.89 05-10 FDCPX 77.87 SComputers
9.77 06-16 FLATX 21.68 LatinAmerica
9.55 07-02 FSENX 44.38 SEnergy
8.93 08-26 FSMEX 42.99 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
8.24 09-17 FTEMX 11.45 TotalEmergingMarkets
8.13 10-02 FNARX 29.38 SNaturalResources
7.85 11-12 FSCSX 134.91 SSoftware&ITServices
6.70 12-01 FSESX 48.81 SEnergyService Yes
6.57 13-01 FSRBX 26.09 SBanking
6.39 14-12 FOCPX 86.56 OTCPortfolio
6.34 15-05 FISMX 24.67 InternationalSmallCap
6.33 16-05 FPBFX 29.33 PacificBasin
6.10 17-01 FSLBX 61.36 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
6.09 18-01 FEMKX 24.64 EmergingMarkets
5.96 19-02 FNCMX 69.94 NasdaqCompositeIndex
5.69 20-04 FJPNX 12.55 Japan
Last week
17.69 01-13 FSELX 92.69 SElectronics
10.93 02-09 FDCPX 78.20 SComputers Yes
10.82 03-11 FSPTX 135.10 STechnology Yes
10.45 04-11 FSDCX 32.28 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
10.32 05-01 FSNGX 26.94 SNaturalGas Yes
9.88 06-25 FSMEX 43.16 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
9.68 07-38 FSAGX 24.54 SGold
9.56 08-01 FSENX 44.16 SEnergy Yes
8.93 09-01 FNARX 29.47 SNaturalResources Yes
8.51 10-11 FSCSX 135.18 SSoftware&ITServices
8.14 11-14 FTEMX 11.39 TotalEmergingMarkets
7.69 12-04 FISMX 24.90 InternationalSmallCap Yes
7.60 13-04 FPBFX 29.58 PacificBasin
7.45 14-11 FOCPX 87.13 OTCPortfolio
7.33 15-15 FLATX 21.09 LatinAmerica
7.19 16-03 FJPNX 12.69 Japan
7.10 17-02 FJSCX 15.46 JapanSmallerCompanies Yes
6.99 18-03 FCPGX 20.39 SmallCapGrowth
6.87 19-01 FSLEX 21.55 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy Yes
6.65 20-01 FNCMX 70.18 NasdaqCompositeIndex

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Aug16 1m+1% 3m+14% 6m+31% 12m+22% 24m+7% 36m+29% 60m51% 120m+9%
Jul16 1m-6% 3m-7% 6m+16% 12m-10% 24-1% 36m+13% 60m+8% 120m-2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SEnergyService(FSESX)(10Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SNaturalGas(FSNGX)(22Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Aug16 1m-2% 3m+8% 6m+13% 12m+6% 24m+6% 36m+9% 60m+18% 120m+22%
Jul16 1m-6% 3m-1% 6m+4% 12m-9% 24m-1% 36m-9% 60m+2% 120m+14%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

30 September 2016

Way back in September 2008 Lehman Brothers went bankrupt because there was no firm left to buy it at fire sale prices like Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, and others who were purchased by other firms with the help of tons of US Treasury dollars. Probably the overriding cause was the use of leverage and derivatives. Deutsche Bank, the largest bank in Germany, now have a ratio of about 3T in assets to 55T in derivatives. The stock price, when compared to Lehman Brothers price back in 06-08 is almost the same. Deutache Bank’s stock price is down about 80% in 2 years. It is the biggest bank in Germany with about 3 times the assets as the second biggest bank. And the US Treasury has recently hit the bank with a 15B dollar fine. Anyone see a problem in banks coming (again)?
So I wrote the above comments on Monday. Then on Thursday Deutache Bank caused a big market decline. On Friday there was a fix in to save the bank and the market went up. Friday Germany’s second bank, Commerzbank, suspended its divided and will cut 1/5 of their employees with a 9,000 layoff. Things do not look good in the land of big German banks.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is  “Confirmed uptrend” as of 21Sep. Time to invest. I continue to be surprised that the market is going up. There are so many negatives but as long as the various countries continue to keep rates low or negative it looks like the market will continue up.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 43.16, a sell price of 41.36, a rank of 06, and is a hold. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 136.01)
IRA#2
SElectronics has a price of 92.69, a sell price 88.06, a rank of 01, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 64.61)
SNaturalGas has a price of 26.94, a sell price 25.59, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – PSCE – stopped out on 9/13, purchased again on 10/3)
SComputers has a price of 78.20, a sell price TBD, a rank of 02, and is a buy. (ETF – SOXX – purchased on 10/3)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Purchase SComputers FDCPX

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 –  100% invested
IRA #2 –  80% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
17.69 01-13 FSELX 92.69 SElectronics  
10.93 02-09 FDCPX 78.20 SComputers Yes
10.82 03-11 FSPTX 135.10 STechnology Yes
10.45 04-11 FSDCX 32.28 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
10.32 05-01 FSNGX 26.94 SNaturalGas Yes
9.88 06-25 FSMEX 43.16 SMedicalEquipment&Systems  
9.68 07-38 FSAGX 24.54 SGold  
9.56 08-01 FSENX 44.16 SEnergy Yes
8.93 09-01 FNARX 29.47 SNaturalResources Yes
8.51 10-11 FSCSX 135.18 SSoftware&ITServices  
8.14 11-14 FTEMX 11.39 TotalEmergingMarkets  
7.69 12-04 FISMX 24.90 InternationalSmallCap Yes
7.60 13-04 FPBFX 29.58 PacificBasin  
7.45 14-11 FOCPX 87.13 OTCPortfolio  
7.33 15-15 FLATX 21.09 LatinAmerica  
7.19 16-03 FJPNX 12.69 Japan  
7.10 17-02 FJSCX 15.46 JapanSmallerCompanies Yes
6.99 18-03 FCPGX 20.39 SmallCapGrowth  
6.87 19-01 FSLEX 21.55 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy Yes
6.65 20-01 FNCMX 70.18 NasdaqCompositeIndex                
Last week
14.07 01-12 FSELX 89.00 SElectronics  
13.48 02-34 FSAGX 25.26 SGold  
11.42 03-24 FSMEX 43.54 SMedicalEquipment&Systems Yes
10.82 04-10 FSPTX 134.33 STechnology Yes
9.93 05-08 FDCPX 77.05 SComputers Yes
9.48 06-20 FBIOX 197.51 SBiotechnology Yes
9.08 07-13 FTEMX 11.44 TotalEmergingMarkets  
8.91 08-10 FSCSX 135.07 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
8.55 09-10 FOCPX 87.67 OTCPortfolio Yes
8.24 10-10 FSDCX 31.46 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
8.16 11-14 FLATX 21.17 LatinAmerica  
7.96 12-03 FPBFX 29.56 PacificBasin  
7.93 13-01 FJPNX 12.73 Japan  
7.47 14-03 FISMX 24.75 InternationalSmallCap  
7.38 15-01 FEMEX 8.20 EmergingEMEA  
7.36 16-09 FEMKX 24.77 EmergingMarkets  
7.23 17-02 FCPGX 20.36 SmallCapGrowth Yes
6.96 18-02 FCPEX 12.85 SmallCapEnchancedIndex Yes
6.92 19-05 FSLBX 61.45 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
6.88 20-01 FJSCX 15.37 JapanSmallerCompanies      

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Aug16 1m+1% 3m+14% 6m+31% 12m+22% 24m+7% 36m+29% 60m51% 120m+9%
Jul16 1m-6% 3m-7% 6m+16% 12m-10% 24-1% 36m+13% 60m+8% 120m-2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(19Sep16) from LatinAmreica(FLATX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(29Aug16) from SGold(FSAGX)
20% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – RealEstateInvestmentPortfolio(FRESX)(21Mar16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – Telecom&Utilities(FIUIX)(14Mar16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Aug16 1m-2% 3m+8% 6m+13% 12m+6% 24m+6% 36m+9% 60m+18% 120m+22%
Jul16 1m-6% 3m-1% 6m+4% 12m-9% 24m-1% 36m-9% 60m+2% 120m+14%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%