Month: July 2016

Consuelo Mack has a PBS show (and website and podcast) called WealthTrack. As part of her 22 July show she talks with Jonathan Clements discussing his new book “How to Think About Money.” He indicates if you want more happiness then 1. concentrate on your spending, 2. college graduates should try to make money first in order to have enough wealth to eventually do what makes you happy, and 3. be extremely frugal. He points you have to plan on 70 years as an adult. His one investment to hold forever is VWO – Vanguard FSTE Emerging Markets ETF.

If you have, or expect a private pension (such as mine from United Technologies) you may want to read an article at http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/bankrupting-pensions-one-basis-point-time-80616 . It states “But the era of ultra-low rates is bankrupting pensions, …”

Yes it is the end of July, but I am slow in completing this report.
Returns for the month of June were mostly positive.
In June IRA#1 6%, IRA#2 6%, PDP PIE PIZ DWAS -2%, QQQ -6%, SPY/RSP -5%, DWTR 3%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 22%, IRS#2 9%, PDPetc -1%, QQQ -5%, SPY/RSP -3%, DWTR 5%.
For the last 6 months, IRA#1 16%, IRS#2 5%, PDPetc -0%, QQQ -2%, SPY/RSP 1%, DWTR 2%.
June portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – None – Invested in FSMEX
IRA#2 – Purchased FSAGX 6/13 – Invested in FIUIX, FJSCX, FRESX, FSMEX, FSAGX
PDP PIE PIX DWAS – Sold PIZ 6/14, PIE 6/27 – Invested in PDP, cash
QQQ – Sold QQQ 6/27 – Invested in cash
SPY/RSP – Sold RSP 6/27 – Invested in cash
DWTR – None – Invested in DWTR
When the market declined in June a couple of stoploss orders were executed. The ETF portfolios were updated with a 7% stoploss daily, while the mutual fund accounts were updated with a sell price of 5% weekly. Thus the ETFs are much more susceptible to daily fluctuations.
DWTR – PowerShares DWA Tactical Sector Rotation Portfolio is an ETF which invests in up to 4 of the best performing 9 ETFs which are managed based on sector performance and may invest in cash if the ETFs sector performance is poor. DWTR evaluates the 9 sector ETFs monthly based on relative strength to remain invested in the best 4. Currently DWTR is invested in PowerShares DWA Momentum Portfolios PYZ – Basic Materials, PSL – Consumer Staples, PUI – Utilites, and PTF – Technology. Stocks in each sector ETF are changed quarterly based on the relative strength of stocks within the appropriate sector.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend”. Time to invest. One investing concern the coming election. Past elections have generally produced a down market for the first year following the election. I think you should be ready to sell.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 42.58, a sell price of 40.45, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 133.83)
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 26.26, a sell price 25.23, a rank of 10, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 26.10)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 47.35, a sell price 44.98, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 64.66)
SGold has a price of 27.76, a sell price 26.42, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – GLDX I was stopped out of this again)
LatinAmerica has a price of 21.07, a sell price 20.02, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – BRF current stop loss 15.84)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
35.35 01-26 FSAGX 27.76 SGold
14.71 02-16 FSMEX 42.58 SMedicalEquipment&Systems Yes
13.46 03-04 FSELX 83.30 SElectronics Yes
12.75 04-06 FLATX 21.07 LatinAmerica
12.52 05-13 FRESX 47.35 RealEstateInvestmentPortfolio Yes
10.38 06-28 FSTCX 72.61 STelecommunications
9.73 07-02 FSCSX 130.88 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
9.46 08-05 FEMEX 8.09 EmergingEMEA
9.29 09-02 FOCPX 85.15 OTCPortfolio Yes
9.27 10-30 FIUIX 26.26 Telecom&Utilities
9.24 11-02 FSPTX 126.82 STechnology Yes
8.73 12-05 FTEMX 10.97 TotalEmergingMarkets Yes
8.49 13-01 FJSCX 15.32 JapanSmallerCompanies Yes
8.37 14-04 FSHOX 63.22 SConstruction&Housing Yes
8.29 15-06 FPBFX 28.77 PacificBasin
7.98 16-02 FSDCX 30.33 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
7.97 17-14 FSUTX 77.02 SUtilities
7.81 18-02 FCPGX 19.82 SmallCapGrowth Yes
7.09 19-01 FSRPX 110.84 SRetailing
6.95 20-01 FEMKX 23.96 EmergingMarkets Yes
Last week
29.91 01-25 FSAGX 26.15 SGold
14.22 02-05 FLATX 21.20 LatinAmerica Yes
13.02 03-15 FSMEX 41.63 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
12.50 04-12 FRESX 47.03 RealEstateInvestmentPortfolio
11.68 05-03 FSELX 81.41 SElectronics Yes
11.30 06-27 FSTCX 72.81 STelecommunications
11.06 07-29 FIUIX 26.56 Telecom&Utilities Yes
9.89 08-13 FSUTX 78.06 SUtilities
8.96 09-01 FSCSX 129.30 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
8.63 10-04 FTEMX 10.91 TotalEmergingMarkets Yes
8.16 11-03 FSHOX 62.82 SConstruction&Housing Yes
7.96 12-04 FEMEX 7.94 EmergingEMEA
7.83 13-01 FSDCX 30.16 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
7.36 14-06 FSDIX 15.02 StrategicDividend&Income Yes
7.34 15-01 FSHCX 89.53 SHealthCareServices Yes
7.34 16-01 FSPTX 124.01 STechnology Yes
7.21 17-01 FCPGX 19.63 SmallCapGrowth Yes
7.11 18-02 FARNX 11.73 EventDrivenOpportunities Yes
6.83 19-01 FOCPX 82.83 OTCPortfolio Yes
6.79 20-05 FPBFX 28.25 PacificBasin

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jun16 1m+6% 3m+22% 6m+16% 12m-10% 24m+2% 36m+23% 60m+12% 120m-2%
May16 1m-7% 3m+16% 6m+8% 12m-19% 24m+2% 36m+17% 60m+6% 120m-12%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:)
20% – LatinAmreica(FLATX)(25Jul16) from JapanSmallerCompaneis(FJSCX)
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(13Jun16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – RealEstateInvestmentPortfolio(FRESX)(21Mar16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – Telecom&Utilities(FIUIX)(14Mar16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jun16 1m+6% 3m+9% 6m+5% 12m-1% 24m+2% 36m+8% 60m+8% 120m+21%
May16 1m-1% 3m+4% 6m-3% 12m-9% 24m-3% 36m-0% 60m-2% 120m+13%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

Consuelo Mack has a PBS show (and website and podcast) called WealthTrack. At the start of the show on 15July she quotes from Lewis Carroll’s “Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland” with the Cheshire cat telling Alice “We are all mad here” and Alice saying “It would so nice if something made sense for a change”.  Ms. Mack then goes on to interview Brugere-Trelat and Trennert on the long-term consequences of Brexit. The two investment managers have some interesting opinions and suggestions for investments.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend”. Time to invest. IBD had 5 suggestions for stocks near their buy point – Broadcom – AVGO, Salesforce – CRM, Adobe – ADBE, Smith&Wesson – SWCH, and Home Depot – HD.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 41.63, a sell price of 39.55, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 132.04)
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 26.56, a sell price 25.23, a rank of 07, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 26.10)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 47.03, a sell price 44.08, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 64.66)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 14.64, a sell price 14.25, a rank of 29, and is a sell – it has been held for 90+ days thus no extra fees. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 58.34)
SGold has a price of 26.15, a sell price 26.42, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – GLDX I was stopped out of this again)
SLatinAmdrica has a price of 21.20, a sell price TBD, a rank of 02, and is a buy. (ETF – BRF) I could not find an ETF which is like SLatinAmerica, but BRF is sort of close.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Investing in LatinAmerica and selling JapanSamllerCompanies.

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
29.91 01-25 FSAGX 26.15 SGold
14.22 02-05 FLATX 21.20 LatinAmerica Yes
13.02 03-15 FSMEX 41.63 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
12.50 04-12 FRESX 47.03 RealEstateInvestmentPortfolio
11.68 05-03 FSELX 81.41 SElectronics Yes
11.30 06-27 FSTCX 72.81 STelecommunications
11.06 07-29 FIUIX 26.56 Telecom&Utilities Yes
9.89 08-13 FSUTX 78.06 SUtilities
8.96 09-01 FSCSX 129.30 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
8.63 10-04 FTEMX 10.91 TotalEmergingMarkets Yes
8.16 11-03 FSHOX 62.82 SConstruction&Housing Yes
7.96 12-04 FEMEX 7.94 EmergingEMEA
7.83 13-01 FSDCX 30.16 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
7.36 14-06 FSDIX 15.02 StrategicDividend&Income Yes
7.34 15-01 FSHCX 89.53 SHealthCareServices Yes
7.34 16-01 FSPTX 124.01 STechnology Yes
7.21 17-01 FCPGX 19.63 SmallCapGrowth Yes
7.11 18-02 FARNX 11.73 EventDrivenOpportunities Yes
6.83 19-01 FOCPX 82.83 OTCPortfolio Yes
6.79 20-05 FPBFX 28.25 PacificBasin
Last week
36.69 01-24 FSAGX 27.08 SGold
12.82 02-14 FSMEX 41.27 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
12.47 03-04 FLATX 20.72 LatinAmerica
11.67 04-26 FSTCX 72.62 STelecommunications Yes
11.29 05-11 FRESX 46.22 RealEstateInvestmentPortfolio
10.91 06-28 FIUIX 26.37 Telecom&Utilities
10.05 07-02 FSELX 79.73 SElectronics Yes
9.53 08-12 FSUTX 77.40 SUtilities
8.96 09-03 FEMEX 7.98 EmergingEMEA Yes
8.43 10-03 FTEMX 10.84 TotalEmergingMarkets
7.72 11-01 FFGCX 10.65 GlobalCommodity Stock
7.50 12-02 FSHOX 62.17 SConstruction&Housing Yes
7.24 13-02 FSCGX 39.74 SIndustrialEquipment Yes
7.18 14-04 FPBFX 28.25 PacificBasin Yes
7.13 15-01 FSNGX 25.12 SNaturalGas
6.95 16-06 FDFAX 99.48 SConsumerStaples
6.92 17-05 FSDIX 14.90 StrategicDividend&Income Yes
6.81 18-01 FSCHX 143.82 SChemicals Yes
6.78 19-01 FARNX 11.65 EventDrivenOpportunities Yes
6.55 20-01 FEMKX 23.70 EmergingMarkets

 

IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
May16 1m-7% 3m+16% 6m+8% 12m-19% 24m+2% 36m+17% 60m+6% 120m-12%
Apr16 1m+24% 3m+24% 6m+11% 12m-12% 24m+10% 36m+15% 60m+6% 120m-6%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:)
20% – LatinAmreica(FLATX)(25Jul16) from JapanSmallerCompaneis(FJSCX)
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(13Jun16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – RealEstateInvestmentPortfolio(FRESX)(21Mar16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – Telecom&Utilities(FIUIX)(14Mar16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
May16 1m-1% 3m+4% 6m-3% 12m-9% 24m-3% 36m-0% 60m-2% 120m+13%
Apr16 1m+3% 3m+5% 6m-3% 12m-6% 24m-1% 36m+2% 60m-4% 120m+12%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%

I am still surprised by the up market. My only thought is that we have the best market and the world is looking for a place to invest. Each day I receive a market recap email from StockTrader.com – it is free. While the market is up, right now they have no warnings about it.
When you look at our economy we are just lucky the rest of the world is bad. Our statistics sound good until you look at them. This month it was reported that 287k jobs were created – a good number. Except 90% of the new jobs were found by those over 55 (i.e. can’t afford to retire) taking part time and full time jobs. 50% of the jobs created were minimum wage jobs. Not a very dynamic economy.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend”. Time to invest, but I am fully invested in the top 20 funds.

This report is coming out Tuesday since I was out of town over the weekend. If you every get to the Orlando I have an observation. They have parking lots with names. The first one I noticed was called “I-4 East”. A second one was called “535 North”. They do look like they are moving, but perhaps it is just an illusion.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 41.27, a sell price of 39.23, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 131.29)
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 26.37, a sell price 25.05, a rank of 06, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 26.10)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 46.22, a sell price 43.91, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 64.00)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 14.86, a sell price 14.25, a rank of 32, and is a hold for now. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 58.34)
SGold has a price of 27.08, a sell price 26.42, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – GLDX current stoploss 41.58)
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

I sure am surprised by the market action this week. Some analysts indicate it is the resumption of the bull market. It is just one of those times to follow the trend.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend”. Time to invest, but I am fully invested in the top 20 funds.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 41.29, a sell price of 39.23, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 130.13)
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 26.21, a sell price 24.90, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 26.10)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 46.06, a sell price 43.76, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 63.59)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 15.00, a sell price 14.25, a rank of 09, and is a hold. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 57.38)
SGold has a price of 27.81, a sell price 26.42, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – GLDX current stoploss 41.25)
The sell price for Telecom&Utilities was adjusted for a distribution on .115.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

This weekend I was out of town working in Walt Disney World until Monday. One of the reasons WDW seems hotter is that they do not get the breezes we get here in Jupiter, but then the cost of gas is 2.05 and here in Jupiter it is 10% higher. Not sure why that is but for the last 8 years that I have been going to WDW, there has been at least a 10% difference.
One of the major changes this week has been the increase in the price of gold and gold stocks. While I am sure the concern of over the Brexit results caused it to go up quickly and I think due due for a dip. Based on numbers from etfscreen.com, JNUG, a leveraged junior gold miners ETF, was up 27% this week and 667% over the last 12 months. Next time Marty McFly goes back to the future, I hope he brings me the 01Jul17 etfscreen.com report.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse was “Market in Correction” from of 06/29/16 and on 6/30/16 changed to “Uptrend Resumes”. Time to invest, but I am fully invested in the top 20 funds. The reason for the weekly gain may be window dressing for the end of the quarter, normal holiday gains, the Bank of England easing lending requirements, or maybe it was just recovery from the Brexit vote.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 40.28, a sell price of 38.27, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 126.70)
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 26.25, a sell price 24.94, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 25.93)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 45.47, a sell price 43.20, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 62.78)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 14.91, a sell price 14.16, a rank of 09, and is a hold. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 57.38)
SGold has a price of 26.47, a sell price 25.15, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – GLDX current stoploss 38.13)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested